 Platinum Customer
Joined: 3/29/2005
Posts: 16
|
Looking at this stock from a TSV 38, Is this a neg div??? MS is headed lower, but it seems to follow the price anyway. Any thoughts from you warhorses???
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Yes it is a negative divergence on tsv 38. I use tsv22 and there is no divergence. There is definitely a negative moneystream divergence also. As I do not believe in divergences, this would have no effect on my decision. I buy chart patterns.
That being said, I am not looking for any stocks to go long on right now, but I do like this chart pattern. What I DON'T like is it has tried to break out of it's 7 month trading range 3 previous times and each one was followed by a heavy volume down day. Now the super heavy volume down days have been less and less which would be considered a positive.
Sorry for the less than definitive answer. Just on a pattern basis I would be a buyer of this stock if the market was in a short-term upward trend. I believe the 1/18/06 price action would be considered a positive 1 day reversal. You do have to worry that it reports earnings on 2/8/05. Look for some competitors of this company and see if they have already reported.
|
|
Platinum Customer
Joined: 3/29/2005
Posts: 16
|
Thanks HNC, I was going to buy a put on this stock,shows how much I know.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
|
krieger, buying a put on this doesn't sound that bad. The hammer on 1/19 coupled with several divergences looks good for a down move. My only reservation would be a $4 stock doesn't have much room to fall. Good luck.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Golfman, that is not a hammer on 1/19. It's not a reverse hammer either, unless it was in a downtrend.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Let me state that more clearly. A hammer only occurs in a downtrend and is considered a reversal pattern after confirmation.
If the hammer is in an uptrend, it is not called a hammer, but a hanging man and is considered bearish pattern that also needs confirmation.
A reverse hammer only occurs in a downtrend and it is considered bullish with confirmation.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
|
Interesting play. This stock is trying to break through the 4.6 level. This level seems to be forming a strong resistance right now . The volume is declining on the daily chart. This may be a breakout play. MS and RSI are rising while the last two highs of the stock reamined at the same level (divergence). This is seen on the weekly chart.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
|
Nocents, whether it is technically a hammer or a hanging man according to "candlestick definintions" is irrelevant. I simplify things and call them all hammers. Fact is it that the price action on 1/19 is bearish as price was unable to hold onto its highs. Good luck.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
QUOTE (Golfman25) Nocents, whether it is technically a hammer or a hanging man according to "candlestick definintions" is irrelevant. I simplify things and call them all hammers. Fact is it that the price action on 1/19 is bearish as price was unable to hold onto its highs. Good luck.
Golfman, if you don't understand candlestick charting then you really should not comment on it like that. It's not a hammer. What you see on 1/19 is not a bearish candlestick. It has no meaning in an uptrend WHATSOEVER according to candlestick theory. That was my whole point. You may consider it a bearish sign, but the people who developed candlestick theory DO NOT!!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
|
QUOTE (HaveNoCents) QUOTE (Golfman25) Nocents, whether it is technically a hammer or a hanging man according to "candlestick definintions" is irrelevant. I simplify things and call them all hammers. Fact is it that the price action on 1/19 is bearish as price was unable to hold onto its highs. Good luck. Golfman, if you don't understand candlestick charting then you really should not comment on it like that. It's not a hammer. What you see on 1/19 is not a bearish candlestick. It has no meaning in an uptrend WHATSOEVER according to candlestick theory. That was my whole point. You may consider it a bearish sign, but the people who developed candlestick theory DO NOT!!
My 2 cents is:
I see a consolidation channel from $4.77 down to 3.39. I'll be kind and give you the other higher channel line at $3.77 . Either way, MS is Juuuussst now beginning to get to the zero line. A hopeful bullish sign. Well, hopeful has cost me money in the past. I'd pass until MS decided if it wanted to be an "adult" or not, then if it pulled back to the $3.77 area I'd take a flyer.
Like all "teenie boppers," they look good and are lots of fun to be around, but boy they are high maintenance! Need more than one indicator, I love the doji, TSV/MACD and whatever Rsi is (haven't tried to learn that one yet) all look good. There is a nice upward slope from 1-5-06 too. But I am still seeing a bottoming consolidation channel with BRCD price at the top of it. Teenie boppers need to keep banging their heads before they grow up. Lets see if BRCD can keep banging at that resistance line (ie. upper channel line). If it does, I'll feel better that it is learning how to be and adult.
Good luck all.
Happy Charting
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
I don't know why, but this is really bugging me.
Golfman, you cannot simplify something by calling them both hammers BECAUSE THEY MEAN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT THINGS.
In appearance, a hammer and a hanging man LOOK EXACTLY THE SAME!!!! There is no difference whatsoever. Yet no matter the color, one is bullish, and the other is bearish. What looks like a hammer in appearance is not actually a hammer unless it occurs in a downtrend. If it occurs in a downtrend it is bullish, and it IS A HAMMER. What looks like a hammer in appearance is not a hammer in an uptrend. It's a hanging man regardless of color. It is bearish. How is it simplifying something to call something the same when one is bullish, and one is bearish? That would be like me saying you should buy all trending stocks. It doesn't matter which way the trend is moving if it's trending you should buy it. Does that make any sense?
Now a reverse or inverted hammer looks like an upside down hammer. If it occurs in a downtrend it is considered bullish. If it appears in an uptrend it's called a shooting star, and it is bearish.
NONE OF THESE SIGNS MEAN ANYTHING WITHOUT CONFIRMATION ACCORDING TO THEORY.
I bring this all up only because there are many people who are still learning. Teaching people that if it looks like a hammer it's a hammer does them an injustice.
I'm off my soapbox. Good Luck
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
|
No cents, I simply explained why I called it what I called it. I admitted that I had my own term for it. In theoretical candlestick terms, as you pointed out, it may be a "shooting star." I stand corrected.
So let me revise my previous post -- replace "hammer on 1/19" with bearish price action on 1/19.
As for the people still learning, I think they can get a great lesson from this. Think for yourself. I suppose there is a candlestick guru who can teach the "theory" for hurndres, maybe thousands, of dollars. In addition, imo waiting for "confirmation" simply eats into profits. I would rather focus on the facts. Common sense tells me that 1/19 was not a positive day.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Golfman, I agree it wasn't a positive day, but the previous day had a good upside move. It just ran out of gas. Personally I don't think candlesticks serve much of a purpose on a daily basis. They do work if you are a daytrader(which I am not) and you are working with 10 minute charts or less. You get your confirmation quickly.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |