Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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i have some hygs,smith barney kikes it.
what are your thoughts
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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GaryB;
If you play with the TSV between TSV12 and TSV14 you see a divergence appear. Also two other things pop out of the chart:
Long term downtrend resistance around $3.6 and yesterdays doji could be signaling a top. If you are in with gains, I'd take them and move on. If not, I say look for better charts.
The only thing going for it is the news headline from Jan 12th:
"Hydrogenics to Supply Hydrogen Refuelling Station to Basin Electric for Wind Hydrogen Project." It gained $1.00 that day or well over 60%!
To me the chart says "don't be a pig...bulls/bears make money>"
Happy trading.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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thanks for the info
what about cpst
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I like the chart of cpst. It's had strong pullbacks in December and October. The only problem is you would have to keep your stop below 2.88 to reach it's last support. This would give you a 15% loss possiblity. It's going to have some upside resistance from 3.70-4.00.
In the short term you have a risk of .50 a share and an immediate reward of .35.
If the market were in better shape right now, I might speculate and buy it here, but it totally goes against my risk reward ratio. I normally try to find something that gives me a 2:1 reward vs risk ratio.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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thanks for the info on hygs and cpst
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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GaryB;
Here's my take (from other forum)
cpst is a tough call in terms of buying at current levels. There is a long term down slopping resistance line and a flat LT resistance line that are a $1 (+30%)or more away. That says buy given MS and TSV stays positive. I'd hold until you see MS make a move (ie. down sell). Another reason I'd hold is that yesterdays doji looks positive and spending a few more days at this level can be a real strong good sign so long as MS stays at current levels. The key to me is MS strength!
Comments anyone?
Happy Charting
Update;
I like the way Havenocents loks at it (risk Vs reward).
So the question is what "leads (eg. MS TSV, dojis, volume ...) can you look for to reduce the risk or do you blindly take the stop loss at 15%?
HaveNocents;
Can you comment this ?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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I just noticed, BOP has been in steady decline. Should I be worriedby that given that price has been rising at the same time?
Comment anyone?
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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motmouth
money stream really looks good on cpst,i think when worden recommends a stock we might get caught in the immediate hype and perhaps buy to high.
i am new at this and thank you for any comments or suggestions
gary b
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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I am new also GaryB.
I've been new for the last 4 years ("horrible market" I'm told). Some people who I respect that have doing this for 10 or more years tell me they are still new!
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (motmouth) GaryB;
Update;
I like the way Havenocents loks at it (risk Vs reward).
So the question is what "leads (eg. MS TSV, dojis, volume ...) can you look for to reduce the risk or do you blindly take the stop loss at 15%?
HaveNocents;
Can you comment this ?
This method is more for medium-term traders, not day traders. (30-180days)
I normally follow stan weinstein's rules of trading. He believes all stocks go through 4 stages. In my opinion, in order to see these stages you need to look at your charts from zoom=2 or zoom=1.
Stage 1 is considered the consolidation stage. Nothing really happening. Volume is low, moneystream is low. Relative strength is low. Basically the stock is in a trading range, nothing exciting. A perfect example of this stage 1 is CALM which I own. It has consolidated for 7 months. I normally would not buy a stock like this until it breaks out with some volume. Volume is increasing, but not enough to have an enormous effect on price. Very boring stock right now. I bought this stock at 6.60 and sold it for 6.91. I purchased it again at 6.80 and I am still holding it. I will probably get burned on it, but it is still holding trend.
Stage 2 is where the breakout occurs. Now after a long consolidation, there is really LOW RISK. Just about everyone who wanted to get out of the stock is now out. 99% of the time I will not buy a stock unless it is at least above it's 150 day moving average, and the 150ma and 50ma are at least rising. Normally stage 2 stocks are very close to both support and resistance. A great low risk buying opportunity. Many time you can just buy and sell the trading range while you are waiting for the breakout.If CALM can ever get over about 7.20 with some follow through it will be officially a stage 2 stock.
Stage 3 are stocks that have had a significant increase, but where the 150ma and 50ma are now levelling out. Buying is running out of gas. The stock may gap up again,, or may proceed to stage 4. This is the best shorting possibility. Support and resistance are close together again. Losses can be minimized whether you go long or short.
Stage 4 begins the downtrend of the stock. Another shorting opportunity. Once consolidation begins and the 150ma and 50ma level off, it now becomes a stage 1 stock again.
Rules for trading.
1. always trade in the market direction. Never short a stock when the short and medium trend is up. Never buy a stock when the short and medium trend is down. Always look at what the stock's industry is doing. If the stock is going down, but the industry is moving up, don't short it because the market may pull it back up or vice versa.
2. Give the stock room. If the stock rises more than 10% in less than a week, take the money and run.
3. draw a trend line of all lows. If it hits 3 points or more when looking at a zoom=2 chart it is a significant trend. Keep your stops at just below the trendline, and you never move up your stops until the price is well above the trendline. When the trendline is broken I am out of the stock.
If you are always buying stocks close to strong support or resistance, you can then pick your 10 or 20 stocks, and write chart notes of THE PERCENTAGE BETWEEN CURRENT PRICE TO IT'S SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. I then pick the stocks which have the greatest upside percentage if I am long, and greatest downside percentage if I am going short. Shorting is actually more profitable because stocks go down a whole lot quicker than they go up.
Since I have been doing this I have been able to average 18% returns. I also have a rule that if I make 20 percent for the year I close all of my positions and buy NO STOCKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. In 2004 I reached my 20% return in January. I did not trade again until 2005. 2005 I only hit 15.75% by december 31. I am not greedy. 15% returns get double your money every 5 years. 18% does it in 4 years.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents)
I normally follow stan weinstein's rules of trading. He believes all stocks go through 4 stages. In my opinion, in order to see these stages you need to look at your charts from zoom=2 or zoom=1.
Thank you HaveNocents. This is great! While I practiced some of the elements in your aproach, I've never sat down and structurally recorded them. You are a great help in moving me along.
One question though, what/where is "zoom=2 and zoom=1?"
Again, thanks for your guidance.
rgds
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Look on the top of your chart. You will see two magnifying glasses. One is a plus and one is a minus. When you move your mouse over one of them, and do not move your mouse you will see the zoom level. Hit the minus magnifying glass to lower the zoom number, and vice versa.
I left off my 4th rule of trading. If you can't find a stock that meets your criteria for risk reward, DON'T BUY ANYTHING. Wait it out until you can find one.
When I first started trading, I was in buying and selling things every single day. It turned into gambling instead of making good trading decisions. Screw the action. Make money. If I can make 20% with only two trades I am a happy camper. 7 years ago, I would think I was on a roll and risk it all on stocks that had poor risk-reward ratios.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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hygs had a great day again all of the indicators look good.
Your comments please
I have sold half of my position
gary b
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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gary I do not mean to be rude or indifferent, but let me say, if you keep basing your trading/investing on ousiders, you will be roasted sooner or later. Try to make your own decisions. It is better to learn to hunt than depend on hunters to get your press.
gook luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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Taking a litle profits is always a "good thing." I would have put a stop right at about the $3.6 level. So depending where you got in, I'd say Hold with tight stops and check the news wires for confirmation. eg. here is what I found on Street.com from Jan 20th:
"Hydrogenics was advancing after the designer and manufacturer of hydrogen and fuel cell systems said it supplied an on-site electrolysis-based hydrogen plant to a state-owned utility in Novorsibirsk, Russia. Shares of Ontario-based Hydrogenics rose 20 cents, or 5.7%, to $3.71 in recent trading."
I'd be concerned about the Russia connection. That doji on Friday would be my other concern as it has the longer tail on the wrong end if you are Long.
But I only know how to lose money, so buyer beware ... I'm still learning how to hold on to gains I make.
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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I think it is always good to get several viewpoints but yes i agree that i must make the final decision not someone else.
I have a nice profit and i think a stop around 3.60 is a good idea.
When it comes to selling it is always a tough call.
A FAMOUS QUOTE THAT STICKS WITH ME IS
"AFTER THE BOAT HAS SUNK EVERYONE WILL TELL YOU WHY IT SHOULD NOT HAVE"
ANOTHER IS FILET MIGNON NOT DEAD COW IS ON THE MENU
IT IS THE SAME THING JUST HOW IT IS PRESENTED
lets all have fun and make some money
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 Platinum Customer
Joined: 3/29/2005
Posts: 16
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Looks like you got a good trade going, % -wise you've done well. MS is strong,it closed high in it's range (the daily bar) barring something drastic,it looks like it could go some more.
After 3 new daily highs , I wouldn't be suprised to see a consolidation in a day or 2.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Kreiger,it sure looks close to the top for a while but rather than just sell i will go with a stop loss
thanks, gary
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Kreiger, i was stopped out at 3.75 on 2k shares that were purchased several weeks ago at 3.00
gary
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Platinum Customer
Joined: 3/29/2005
Posts: 16
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Nice trade, now my luck would go something like this, get stopped out , made a good profit then the dang thing would double again in 3 weeks. Would I catch it? No because I'm too busy patting myself on the back,and can't quite tell between a consolidation area and a trend change yet.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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HYGS .. just bought in a couple of days ago ..love the cup and handle chart pattern that it is forming. Formed a long tailed doji today indicating the tow day pull back that has been happening maybe over tomorrow. If the advance GDP report is above the 2.9 % estimate then the markets should be up ...may be this is the day that the hand;e pattern is confirmed and we get a move in the stock.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (krieger) Nice trade, now my luck would go something like this, get stopped out , made a good profit<img src="/training/images/emoticons/smile001.gif"/> then the dang thing would double again in 3 weeks. Would I catch it? No because I'm too busy patting myself on the back,and can't quite tell between a consolidation area and a trend change yet.<img src="/training/images/emoticons/smile056.gif"/>
Don't feel bad. I don't think anyone can tell the difference especially when the trend is just being established. To me, this is the toughest part of trading.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Kregier,once we sell a stock at a profit it is true that sometimes it can go higher.The market is not an EXACT science otherwise there would be no market we would all know the answer.
By selling hygs it free's up some money for other trades
and we should not delve on the fact if the stock has gone higher.
As traders we must accept all possibilities, i sold rambus way too soon, again it's easy to second guess after the fact.
I try to learn from past experiences but no two trades are the same.
What is done is done,concentrate on the next trade.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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motmouth
I am not familar with the term "doji". Could remedy my ignorance, please?
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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hygs confirmed the cup and handle pattern that has been forning today.
Look for breakout of the 4.10 area on good for volume. if it breaks this level (this is the level that the pattern started forming) then the stock should ramp up to 7.5 , it's lvel of two years ago. Also I noticed that on the weekly chart the stock has been in a 2 year diwn trend. The price broke the top trend line of this channel today. Two strong singals that this stock is going to reverse its current down trend
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (bcraig73450) motmouth
I am not familar with the term "doji". Could remedy my ignorance, please?
The classic definition of a "doji" is when a stock opens and closes at the same price. It is a Japanese derived term (forgot the history behind it) and I believe is used extensively in Quality Circles especially to understand data that is abherant. Dojis can also be in the middle or anyway along the range of prices that day. To sum up:
. doji at top of bar == Bullish
. doji at bottom of bar Bearish
. doji in midle of bar = reversal (up or down depending on previous trend)
Re: hygs
The Friday 23rd doji I reffered to was slightly bearish (notice the "shadow or tail" below the doji), ie. there were more sellers pulling prices down to the low of the day than there were buyers trying to pull it up. Another way to look at it is to say that a few brave souls were willing to venture into "high price" territory and got "smacked back" down. Seems I was correct as the next 3 days saw prices (HiLowClose) that were for the most part lower than the 23rd.
On the other hand, the doji yesterday is very bullish (notice no shadow or tail above the doji. Also, notice the longer "tail" with more buyers pulling it up than sellers pulling it down.
Pay attention to volume quantities though as it can very heavily influence a doji. As usual, heavy volume is always a good thing. In this case, the volume has been heavier on the doji days (a good thing) but notice how it is declining in total for the day.
When I see a doji like this (ie. very bullish yesterday, Monday 30th), I stay away because it could be a "blowoff top" as easily as a "blastoff!" In other words, for Long plays, declining volumes always trump dojis from my experience. In this case I'd be concerned about the overhead resistance from around September 9th or $4.22. Yes it did clear long-term down-trend line but it was only with 3 days of consolidation.
So if you take a Bullish chance, you may only have less than $0.15 profit potential to play with. Just a little toooooo close for a stock approaching resitance.
Apologize for throwing so much jargon around let me know if something else doesn't make sense.
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (malcolmb14) hygs confirmed the cup and handle pattern that has been forning today.
Look for breakout of the 4.10 area on good for volume. if it breaks this level (this is the level that the pattern started forming) then the stock should ramp up to 7.5 , it's lvel of two years ago. Also I noticed that on the weekly chart the stock has been in a 2 year diwn trend. The price broke the top trend line of this channel today. Two strong singals that this stock is going to reverse its current down trend
Malcolmb;
I am not so certain of a completion of the "cup-and-handle." In fact (refer to my earlier post) I see solid resistance from downtrend channel top, beginning around mid 2004. Draw trend lines for tops and bottoms from that period to now to see the channel.
I more firmly believe my earlier post suspicion that this "Bullish doji," is more like a top-of-the-channel blowoff. While the close above the 50Day MA is nice, I would also want to see a close above $4.22 before I got titilated!
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Thanks, moymouth.
I assume "doji" and "cup and saucer" are canclestick tetminology so I guess I will have yo familiarize my self with it.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (motmouth) QUOTE (malcolmb14) hygs confirmed the cup and handle pattern that has been forning today.
Look for breakout of the 4.10 area on good for volume. if it breaks this level (this is the level that the pattern started forming) then the stock should ramp up to 7.5 , it's lvel of two years ago. Also I noticed that on the weekly chart the stock has been in a 2 year diwn trend. The price broke the top trend line of this channel today. Two strong singals that this stock is going to reverse its current down trend Malcolmb; I am not so certain of a completion of the "cup-and-handle." In fact (refer to my earlier post) I see solid resistance from downtrend channel top, beginning around mid 2004. Draw trend lines for tops and bottoms from that period to now to see the channel. I more firmly believe my earlier post suspicion that this "Bullish doji," is more like a top-of-the-channel blowoff. While the close above the 50Day MA is nice, I would also want to see a close above $4.22 before I got titilated! Happy Charting
Malcolmb;
I'm titilated!
Nice call with great volume to boot! I'm not in, but will on the pullback to $4.15 area.
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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I just somehow saw this one playing out right in front of my eyes . It does not happen much !!! Look for pull back in a few days to get ..watch the stochastics 7,3,3 ands 12,3,3 on the hourly chart to become oversold and then buy in. The volume today was huge.
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