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Registered User
Joined: 7/13/2005
Posts: 7
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I am holding IDWK @ 5.92 for 10K shares. Earning results were disappointing, however i am huge believer on this stock. I would appreciate your expert comments on that.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Are you a believer in the stock or the company? I hope you're not a believer in a stock.
The stock has good support at 4.90 so it probably won't drop below that. On the plus side it has a huge short interest ratio which gives it some pent-up demand.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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pap, market's closed today, I'm bored, so I'll play along and give you more than my two cents worth of likely worthless opinion.
I'll give you my opinion on the technical outlook only. As HaveNoCents says, near term support at 4.90. You've already taken a big hit from your cost basis of 5.92, so maybe hold and see if downside of 30 more cents will hold. And as HaveNoCents also mentions, huge short interest traders may want to start covering soon as it falls to nearby support (maybe). That could present you with at least an opportunity to sell a portion at better price, and/or place a tight stop for protection. What's scary though is that the recent few days of downside has come on heavy volume. Makes me think the five month base may be in jeopardy. I wonder what prices the large portion of short sellers built their positions in? If they've been slowly loading up in the past few months in the 5 mo. base price range then maybe they're in no hurry to cover. You might want to investigate and note the short interest percentage from 6 months ago to present, each month, to see if you spot a trend there. If the support at 4.90 fails, then the next support is at 4.40, and a break from there is a free fall to 2.50 or so (see daily chart zoom 1). I'm mostly negative sounding but by playing devil's advocate maybe it will force you to look at IDWK more subjectively at least on the technical side. HaveNoCents right on the money imo when he asks if you're a believer in the stock or the company; a great company (or potentially great) is not always synonymous with a great stock. As always, good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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sorry, meant to say "objectively," not "subjectively," near end of post above.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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I would like to offer my humble opinion ...
I am with the FP and Havenocents .... this stock is going to likely drop into support. If you can stomach an additional 30 c drop then let it drop into support and see if it rallies from the 4.8 level. Tighten your stop as it approaches the 4.8 level in case this level is broken. Have patience this stock may rally to the 6.4 level once more.
I did buy this one last time it was at the 4.8 level and sold slightly early at 6. I look for stocks that are trading sideways like this one. $6.57 is very strong resistance for this stock. It it does rally off the 4.8 level then follow it up. When it reaches 6.5 ish tighten the stop once more in case it pulls back form this level. At around the 6.5 level look for a break out on heavy volume on the 15 / 30 / 60 minute charts.
There is an offering of 9,500,000 shares that will be priced on jan 23rd. This will have some effect on the price of the stock and may push it down further.
Good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well it made it to resistance and it looks like so far it's holding. I even bought 2000 shares today at 5.03. I put a stop at 4.83 which would put it .05 below it's daily low reached on December 14th.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Dang, I forgot about the 19.5 million shares being offered on the 23rd. This is definitely going to be a short hold.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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thought about buying some of this stock myself today .. then bought TGB instead .. nice low cost mining play
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I closed half of my position at 5.27 and I am going to let the other half run. No matter what I will be out of this stock sometime tomorrow. I am not going to wait to see what they are going to price those extra 19.5 million shares. It should already be reflected into the stock, but I am not taking any chances. They only have 31.5 million shares outstanding. Adding another 19.5 million can do nothing but decrease shareholder value.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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closed the other half of the position at 5.33.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well Pap71? What did you end up doing. The stock definitely had a nice short-interest rally.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/13/2005
Posts: 7
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Great stuff guys....I learned new things from your comments. I will probably hold the stocks just before the pricing announcement. I believe that the price will be not less than $6.00 per share. But i will get out if it starts falling.
Thanks to all for your comments.
-pap
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It looks like today marked the end of the short squeeze. What happens from this point on will be purely market driven.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Money stream does not look very good
your comments!!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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No more short squeeze, no more moneystream. The stock is now back in the downtrend it was in before the squeeze.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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This stock came up today on the MT predictor software as a wave 5 buy if it goes over 6.21. The stop would be 5.98. Projected target is 7.06-7.30
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