| akqj10 |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Tuesday, February 7, 2006 |
| Monday, May 5, 2008 1:46:25 AM |
218
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I was thinking that next question was coming
conditional probability is the P(A given B) = P(A and B) / P( B )
Google bayes' theorm or conditional probability
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please tell me if im thinking backwards, i got the days wrong but if we are looking for a 5% gap up then a 20 % gap up would work also, because 20 includes 5, that is why i took all gaps. so replace 365250 with 2500 and run it again. we have to change the first number also because we are choosing a gap out of a number of choices.
so probability of choosing any gap in any stock on a any day
6132/2500000 x 1/1000 x 1/2500
so i pick a day, pick a stock, and look for a gap, that is different than watching a specific stock every day, but you still could not see a gap, and different then just counting the number of gaps there was.
the difference is in rolling 3 white dice as opposed to 3 dice, one red, one green, and one blue and wanting specific numbers on each color.
google search probability addition and multiplication
"AND" or Intersections
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other occurring.
An example would be rolling a 2 on a die and flipping a head on a coin. Rolling the 2 does not affect the probability of flipping the head.
If events are independent, then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of each occurring.
Only valid for independent events
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
"OR" or UnionsMutually Exclusive EventsTwo events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. Another word that means mutually exclusive is disjoint. If two events are disjoint, then the probability of them both occurring at the same time is 0. Disjoint: P(A and B) = 0
If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each occurring.
Only valid when the events are mutually exclusive.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
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I will assume that it is only useful to pick a stock that gaps since we want to profit from them...lets take the 5% scenario...so we have 6132 gaps. Now that is out of 1000 stocks and thats over 10 years which is 364250 or so days assuming average years. Im assuming we want the probability of choosing a gap
so we want to choose a single stock on a single day that it gaps that gap has to be a minimum of 5 %.
that is 3 seperate things happening at the same time
so (A)=gap (B)=day (C)=stock
so if (A), (B), and (C) are mutually independant events (all pairs of events are independant), then the probability that (A), (B), and (C) all occur is
P((A)intersect (B) intersect (C)) = P P P
so [(1/6132) * (1/1000) *(1/364250) ] = 4.5e -13 or 1/2233581000000
the previous situation was (A) U (B) U (C)
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That is a good system...I like it...and it delivers exceptional returns in a volitile market....Its been a while since i have posted...Im kind of off and on with the service since 2000 when i was baptised with fire learning how to trade...my name was Aksportsman for the longest time...Hows life treating you BB...sounds like you have some critics latley
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thanks for pointing FRX out looks like a great play to me...i like BSX also...seems to be breaking downtrend
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yea i live in alaska...cant wait to go fishing this summer...
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by the way earnings are out tonight FYI..
HOUSTON, May 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Grey Wolf, Inc. GW ("Grey Wolf" or the "Company") reported net income of $58.6 million, or $0.27 per share on a diluted basis, for the three months ended March 31, 2007 compared with net income of $54.2 million, or $0.24 per share on a diluted basis, for the first quarter of 2006. Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $242.0 million compared with revenues for the first quarter of 2006 of $222.9 million. The first quarter 2006 results included an after tax gain of $5.9 million ($0.03 per diluted share) for the sale of five rigs formerly held for refurbishment.
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float is 12 percent short 21.4/180...and there is alot of action on the call side compared to put side...
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looks like it it broke a downtrend starting in october 2006...using a 3day on zoom 3 plot a LR channel 100-33-16 and you can see that....then draw a trend line connecting the march lows with the april lows..the only reason it didnt hit this line mid april is it hit the 200dsma...so if it breaks the trendline its messing with its new found uptrend..i personally dont like my money taken from me and if i was watching it when earnings were reported i would use the 15dsma...this stock looks like it likes to stay above it during an uptrend and likes to stay below it for a downtrend...if you were looking price you will have to pick that...
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sorry man...ive played with fire before at the end of april...not much fun cause fire burns greenbacks...statistically you get better returns if you are out of the market for at least the summer, but there is always good buys to be found...i like to buy puts out to july...like the ones on KBH...you should read a book by harry s dent...the next bubble boom...very good info...ive been burned bad a few times...i started trading in 2000 when it just started turning over...it was like a backdraft for me...
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