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Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2006
Posts: 73
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Hello all
I am long GW bought at 7.20 5 days ago. Earnings are due out tomarrow. My question is, what should be my stop loss price in order to protect my bottom line if the earning report is in the red?
Thanks
Aslan007 
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Registered User
Joined: 3/1/2005
Posts: 34
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First decide what risk level you can tolerate. If you decide your risk tolerance is 10 %, then use a 10 % trailing sell stop or 10 % below your basis whichever is higher.
Another method is to backscatter the different trailing sell stop % for your stock of interest.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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(IMO) $6.87 has served well as both support (4/20/07) and resistance (late February) Plus it would only be a 5% draw down from your purchase price ($7.20)
Money stream is in a nice up-trend since early April and the sud-industry is doing very well. The weekly chart looks good also..
Unless the the pending report is hideous, I think you have a winner here....
Again (IMO)
Apsll...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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looks like it it broke a downtrend starting in october 2006...using a 3day on zoom 3 plot a LR channel 100-33-16 and you can see that....then draw a trend line connecting the march lows with the april lows..the only reason it didnt hit this line mid april is it hit the 200dsma...so if it breaks the trendline its messing with its new found uptrend..i personally dont like my money taken from me and if i was watching it when earnings were reported i would use the 15dsma...this stock looks like it likes to stay above it during an uptrend and likes to stay below it for a downtrend...if you were looking price you will have to pick that...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Now my prediction (wich holds no weight at all, and is pure speculation)
85% of shares are owned by instutions, and they already know what is in that report due out tomorow. OBV is riding high wich says to me that there is more up days then down days for Volume in the last 16 trading days.
Reletive strength is looking good and so is RSI..
I predict a positive report.
Good luck...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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float is 12 percent short 21.4/180...and there is alot of action on the call side compared to put side...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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by the way earnings are out tonight FYI..
HOUSTON, May 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Grey Wolf, Inc. GW ("Grey Wolf" or the "Company") reported net income of $58.6 million, or $0.27 per share on a diluted basis, for the three months ended March 31, 2007 compared with net income of $54.2 million, or $0.24 per share on a diluted basis, for the first quarter of 2006. Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $242.0 million compared with revenues for the first quarter of 2006 of $222.9 million. The first quarter 2006 results included an after tax gain of $5.9 million ($0.03 per diluted share) for the sale of five rigs formerly held for refurbishment.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2006
Posts: 73
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Great news @ .27 that means .02 cents over what was averaged. I will still move my stop loss down a bit just in case the stocks dives a bit tomarrow. Thanks to everyone for all the great advice. Aksportsman are you in Alaska?
Aslan007
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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yea i live in alaska...cant wait to go fishing this summer...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2006
Posts: 73
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great...I live in Anchorage AK.....fishing? No, you mean bear hearting right?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2006
Posts: 73
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sorry...bear hunting
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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you might want to check guidence for next quarter on the report. I had stocks that had a good report but guidencw was not great and it dove.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Dear Aslam, I have said so many times - if you want real protection - use options.
I don't know what your time frame is, or the amount of shres your have - but lets say it is about 6 month and you own 100 shrs of GW. You would need to buy 1 contracts of put options GWUU (strike 7.5 / Jan 2008). It will cost you just $70 to protect 100 shrs (1 contract). Once you do that you have to careless what the market or the stock does until Jan 2008. If the stock falls below 7.5 you are covered down to the penny, and if you stock goes up lets say $2 between now and Jan 2008 you can sell the stock, grab the profits, and sell your option for the left value.
Is that something you can do? Or you rather risk a 10% at any given time in exchange for nothing?
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2006
Posts: 73
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I agree with you BigBlock!! I have a friend who is just now teaching me about options. So, your wisdom I will put to practice. Oh, by the way GW is up and now I have a trailing stop loss above my entry price...so I am in the money...Praise God!!!
Aslan007
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