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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Chack out GMO - flying the flag
Very strong industry group - Industrial Metals and Mining has been the best performer since the March 5 reversal
WOOF!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Darnit! how come I didn't find that one a month ago! !
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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What do you think, hohandy? The bb13 starting to pinch down on the candle, looks like it's ready for its next move up pretty soon.
(Which also tells me the rest of the market is feeling queasy from the heights it has reached.)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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a tightening bb generally does mean that price is ready to pop - I see a pivot of around 6.25 with a pop within the next day or two - and I have faith in the pennant as a continuation pattern (as well as the current commodity price boom) that it will be a strong move up.
2 questions for you -
- what about this is giving you clues about the queasiness of rest of the market (are you talking about commodity strength as a defensive move?)
- I can barely see the top of the 13bb - it disappears off the top of my chart after 4/11 and only barely reappears at the very top of today's candle. Is there a setting for this that will let me see the whole top band? I use log scale (GMO is 11.4% - nice). I lot of times I end up not using price bb on my charts because the top band disappears
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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re: "2 questions for you"
I guess whenever I see people strongly buying into metals, I think of it as a way to hedge their investments (bets?)
That must be what you were talking about when you said "...commodity strength as a defensive move"?
Couple that with an awful lot of air pockets on gaps down and it doesn't look good. Then there's the issue of the Stochs Down Hard thru 80 that I mentioned on another thread.
I just think this is a good time to be extra careful.
As to the bb13, I don't know, I use the log setting as well, zoom 5/daily on my favorite chart. It shows up OK for me. I can't see the top of bb20 but bb13 is there.
By the way, did you know you can hit your minus key on the numeric keypad and you'll collapse the picture some?
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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QUOTE (tobydad) I guess whenever I see people strongly buying into metals, I think of it as a way to hedge their investments (bets?)
By the way, did you know you can hit your minus key on the numeric keypad and you'll collapse the picture some?
I can see people moving into something like gold as a hedge (and that is what I meant by a defensive move - and gold is at a multi-year high) but I have occasion to follow some aspects of the metal industry as part of my job and particular metals are doing very well right now based upon economic demand (those Chinese!) Prices of several metals (including copper and molybdenum, which GMO is involved in) are at cyclical and historic highs based upon demand and economic activity rather than as a hedge. The signal it's sending to me is more bullish than defensive - although I do acknowledge that you're combining this with your reading of other indicators. Just right now, it's an AWESOME time to run a moly operation  .
That minus key did the trick! thanks!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Thanks for the metals insight. I have so much to learn.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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im betting on a pullback here...that was a double your money from 3 dollars...pigs always get slaughtered...it does not look like consolidation to me in april...i think sellers will win out and its coming back to around 3.50-4 or so...i dont have a position...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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QUOTE (Aksportsman) it does not look like consolidation to me in april...
LOL - looks like a classic pennant to me - and a pennant is a consolidation and continuation pattern. If it isn't a consolidation (declining volume - very tight trading range between strictly defined lines of support and resistance) then what does it look like to you?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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i was looking at consolidation in this perspective as having a net upside potential, but technically it goes either way depending on your position--i.e. i assumed you were long or a buyer so consolidation in that perspective would like to see upside... but at this point in this stock i would be a net seller...i agree with you that it does look nice...but i think the resolution of this particular consolidation will be down and again im a net seller and i think it is going to look like it did in 2006..time being the leveler we will soon find out...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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well it's just violated the pennant pattern to the downside this afternoon - although it did come back within the pennant range and it might be a fakeout - we'll probably know tomorrow. Sure was a nice looking pennant though...
But they're working on another nice looking pennant over at CPST
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Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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CPST is kinda low for my liking but it looks nice at a glance...i would have my bags packed and sitting in the trunk of my car so when it decides to break the 15dsma on a 3 day i can drive away..which might be tomorrow, or the 50 dsma on a 1 day...but i like steppers, flags, and rectangle formations generally...looking at a daily chart 8 out of the 12 days since the worden note it has closed lower than it has opened which is 75 percent...makes me think that its going to pull back to 1-1.05..it has hit a resistance point i think...might be a good re-eval at that point
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Actually I was very mistaken about GMO's performance today - today's low did NOT violate the pennant pattern - it was quite in-line (and looking good!) with the upward-sloping bottom support lines of April 13th, 19th, and 24th.
WHOO-HOO!!
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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CPST hit the pullback target long standing resistance...if you were loooking to still buy it.....GMO is still narrowing
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Hohandy, check out the pennant fever going on with CLRT right now.. Scroll back to the Novenmber pennant 11/22/06 and walk price foward one day at a time to get a vision of the future..
I stumbled on it by accident, It is not in my price range but I could buy some shares when/if MACD-H rolls above the zero line like it did for the November 2006 pennant on 12/01/06
(IMO)
Apsll...
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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QUOTE (Aksportsman) CPST hit the pullback target long standing resistance...if you were loooking to still buy it.....GMO is still narrowing
There was some guy in here a couple weeks ago kept asking us about entry points - I think I identified a possible support/resistance line around 1.06-1.08 for him as a possible entry point - which it hit today. But other than that CPST has no interest for me, except that I noticed the pennant when I checked - and which got violated to the downside today LOL I tend to think of flags/pennants as contination patterns (they were the first chart pattern I learned and I retain a certain fondness for the little guys). I'm counting on it being a continuation pattern in GMO - which I'm in - but obviously it wasn't in CPST.
QUOTE (apsll) Hohandy, check out the pennant fever going on with CLRT right now.. Scroll back to the Novenmber pennant 11/22/06 and walk price foward one day at a time to get a vision of the future..
I stumbled on it by accident, It is not in my price range but I could buy some shares when/if MACD-H rolls above the zero line like it did for the November 2006 pennant on 12/01/06
That's actually more a flag than a pennant back in November (still the same characteristics though, the difference is minor) - and kind of impressive there lasting the calendar month. But that's a nice pennant going on now. Very interesting chart on a number of different levels - LOTS of interaction and support at the 13ema, behaving MACD, good volume signals, MS bullish divergence, just peeking above Diceman's 6 year regression line. It's been nice since it turned the corner last summer, but historically, it's spikey with slow dribbles down. I'd like to make sure that it's gotten that out of it's system before I went in and I agree with you about the price range. Real interesting chart though.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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GMO - breakout to the upside - heavy volume...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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.... and finished in a bloodbath - 20% lower than its high for the day on almost 20x normal volume.
It seems to me that things seriously tanked all around in the last 2 hours of the day. Almost everything in my portfolio and on my watchlist went south as well. I don't know if this was a major sector shift, or a general overbought market situation or a change in market sentiment, or, as I mentioned last week, something due to the semi-annual rebalancing that the mutual funds do at the end of April each year - but market breadth was decidedly negative - something like 83% of NASDAQ volume was down. Jeeze...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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sorry man...ive played with fire before at the end of april...not much fun cause fire burns greenbacks...statistically you get better returns if you are out of the market for at least the summer, but there is always good buys to be found...i like to buy puts out to july...like the ones on KBH...you should read a book by harry s dent...the next bubble boom...very good info...ive been burned bad a few times...i started trading in 2000 when it just started turning over...it was like a backdraft for me...
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