 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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I see a neer term target of 67, possibly 69. Short term reversal yesterday.
It may break out here at 66... but I am looking for a bounce back to 65.80 later today.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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Looking at the May $65 call. 15% in 7-10 days buy at 3.85-3.90 on a pull back with a target of 4.50.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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Well, looks too strong may bust right through here for lunch.
looks like bay shoot up to 67 by the end of the day
lots of buying. I am still hoping for a pull back.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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maybe look at this tomorrow
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Apple reports earnings tomorrow.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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Well I'm not In, But the Day chart looks optimistic for the earnings tomorrow.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I may buy some tomorrow. I had 200 shares but sold it around the 68.50 area. I still think they are going to blow out their earnings. I'm hoping it may drop some tomorrow. They don't report until after the close.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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FWIW,
I still have my AAPL call spread that I mentioned in the other AAPL thread, unhedged.
From an Elliott Wave POV, I still see this as a correction of the downtrend from January, but it just may be that this is wave 5. I don't know yet, and from a practical POV, it doesn't matter much, because AAPL could still see 75 before all is said and done.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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poker101neat - my alter ego from that thread.
AAPL possible short entry point
aapl will trade between 71-72 and 64-65 over the next 10 days to 15 days. Much like ISRG
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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Well, now that I re-read it...you would need a cap'n crunch decoder ring to translate. i.e. expected a bounce off of 64...but earnings will determine whether the range will hold.
Neg. 58 downside
positive 75 upside.
Fibo areas low(57.80) to high(85.60)
62% $75
50% $71-2
38% $69
23% $64.9 retracement
0% $58
I think I am going to pass on this, but apple has been pretty good with surprises.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well I went out on a limb and just bought 500 shares @65.56. Their wave 5 uptrend is due, and apple normally surprises.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well that sure doesn't look like it paid off.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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hmmm, maybe I spoke too soon.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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I missed the boat on this one. Happy sailing, HNC. I see 69, 72, 75 as resistence.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I got a little worried when I saw it drop to 64 in after hours trading but the volume was all 100-500 shares before the big boys came in to bring the stock up. We'll see if there is follow through tomorrow.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Afterhours trading in AAPL appeared to view the earnings results as positive. Yet, despite making the numbers, revenue was below expectations. I'd also like to see some follow through tomorrow.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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I've been watching it. There have been several positives, but I just can't get past the absolutely abysmal OBV. OBV is just terrible to the downside.
That and as I've said before - I generally don't hold trades over earnings. Investments, yes, trades, no. It's a total gamble and no more reliable than betting on the superbowl. JMHO
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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So much for the follow through.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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I belive it will bounce here. 66.00 and will close near 68 (67.67). But Im sure this is gut wrenching....The overall market may play against you the rest of the week.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It dropped down to 66.20 only .65 from where I bought it. The day traders are having a field day with this trying to flush out the weak holders. I promised myself not to sell no matter what happened today. Personally I think the stock is in its wave 5 uptrend and only at the 2nd of 5 waves up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but there is no way I am getting flushed out of this stock today.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 42
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) It dropped down to 66.20 only .65 from where I bought it. The day traders are having a field day with this trying to flush out the weak holders. I promised myself not to sell no matter what happened today. Personally I think the stock is in its wave 5 uptrend and only at the 2nd of 5 waves up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but there is no way I am getting flushed out of this stock today.
HNC, I've been following your view point on this one and find alot of difference in our take. Always trying to learn.
My view may be wrong also but I've had AAPL in a DZ correction since 1/12/06 with X wave starting on 4/6/06 with a likely target of 50.85 to 43.61 in two to six weeks. I looked at the earnings and wasn't all that excited so there may be some emotions on my side brought on by RET (Refined Elliott Trader). If you don't mind, look at the swing points from 1/12/06 to 3/10/06 to 4/6/06 and see if you get the same thing. I'd also like to know your swing points so I can learn your view point.
Thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I am basing my aapl prognosis totally on a weekly chart.
I show wave one beginning week of 4-1-2003 and ending week of 2/14/2004.
Wave 2 ended week of 5/9/2005
Wave 3 ended week of 1/9/06
Wave 4 ended week of 3-27-06
If the stock drops below 60.35 then we are in a more complex wave 4 and all bets are off, but it just doesn't appear that way to me.
Also if this next wave up doesn't take the stock over 72 then I will assume my thesis is incorrect.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/6/2005
Posts: 239
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HN¢,
From your post it would appear wave 2 went from 2/14/2004 to 5/9/2005; that's not right is it?
S2
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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This is really wierd. My weekly charts in MT predictor are totally different than they are in tc2005. I am going to have to figure out what is going on.
On tc2005
Wave 1 began week 4-30-03 and ended 10/20/03
wave 2 ended week of 12/23/03
wave 3 ended week of 1/18/06
wave 4 hopefully ended week of 3/30/06
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Gold Customer
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 42
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I am basing my aapl prognosis totally on a weekly chart.
I show wave one beginning week of 4-1-2003 and ending week of 2/14/2004.
Wave 2 ended week of 5/9/2005
Wave 3 ended week of 1/9/06
Wave 4 ended week of 3-27-06
If the stock drops below 60.35 then we are in a more complex wave 4 and all bets are off, but it just doesn't appear that way to me.
Also if this next wave up doesn't take the stock over 72 then I will assume my thesis is incorrect.
Thanks HNC
What I learnt was your system dates the first of the week (1/9/06 vs 1/13/06) and mine dates the last trading day of the week which still gives us both the wave 3 completeing that week. Our systems agree to that point. From there our systems look a little different. I show wave 4 still in effect on both the weekly and daily charts in a DZ correction with a likely price of 50 to 43 as stated before. This info will help me better understand your post. We'll see where it goes from here.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I promised myself not to sell no matter what happened today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but there is no way I am getting flushed out of this stock today.
I don't mean to rub you on this, but isn't that a dangerous attitude for a trader? If I could play Dr. Phil on this, it sounds like some emotions are being allowed into your trading decision. It's dangerous to fall in love with a stock.
Hey, we've all done it, and we've all lost money on it.
Please don't take that personal, it's not an attack, just an observation from an outsider. If you ever see me doing that, I hope you'll point it out to me.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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I'll add to that - There are some tempting things about the stock, but I'll just say again the OBV is fugly.
If OBV improves, I might have to buy myself.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Quote:"I don't mean to rub you on this, but isn't that a dangerous attitude for a trader?"
As usual the devil is in the details.
What is your pain tolerance?
How large a position is this relative to your portfolio?
How much cash do you have on the sidelines?
How successful has your recent trading been?
What other positions are you holding?
It could be argued that fear of being wrong and its control on your trading.
Could be more of a Dr. Phil moment. Then being able to admit you can be wrong on a trade.
Its not so much the being wrong part. Its how being wrong fits into the overall scheme of things.
Many long term trend following systems have 30 to 40% success rates. They make
up for it by having wins that are much larger than the losses.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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No offense is taken Inspector.
I base my decisions on the trend, and the psychology of a rapid advance. I am not afraid to lose potential profits as long as the stock is above my mental stop. Sure I could have sold for a quick 2000 profit, but I chose to wait it out. It's not emotional whatsoever. The stock would have to drop below 64.35 before I would consider the trend to be reversed. I think the stock has 72.00 minimum written all over its face.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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My trend line shows AAPL at a low here....64.75-65 area.
Should see a couple of days up side to 68.2
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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You're right, plus they are going to have advertisements on ipod. That should give the stock a boost tomorrow for sure.
Apple is going to find a way to make money. Itunes is a tremendous part of their income and I see that increasing for a number of years.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Another good call wwrightjuly4. I bought an additional 200 shares at 65.80 yesterday. It's up nicely today.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (Inspector62) That and as I've said before - I generally don't hold trades over earnings. Investments, yes, trades, no. It's a total gamble and no more reliable than betting on the superbowl. JMHO
I wanted to comment on this previously, but I forgot to do so. Generally I would agree with you about holding a stock through earnings is a gamble but there ARE very important caveats.
Where is the stock in relation to its high or low? If the stock is a high riser then yes it is a crap shoot. In fact, there is probably less than a 50-50 chance the stock will go up after reporting. If the stock is closer to a low than it is a high then it normally isn't a crapshoot. There is a very good likelihood the stock is already lower than its predicted performance because the chance for an upside surprise is greater. If the stock is in the middle of its yearly pricing range you do have a total 50-50 crapshoot.
Another question is how often a company under forecasts? Many companies under forecast and look like over achievers. You just have to know who normally under forecasts. If a company has beat their guidance 4 quarters in a row wouldn't you expect them to beat their forecast again? I would, but then again, if the stock price is close to its high of the year then wallstreet will have a secret number that you or I will never know. This is would be a very dangerous situation. Even though I was confident apple would beat its forecasts, it was where the level of the stock was trading that told me to hold it through earnings. If it was near its 86 dollar high of the year there would be no way I would hold it through earnings.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Oh, and don't get me wrong. I can still lose money on this stock. I am just prepared to ride out my plan. I think the odds are in my favor. If I'm wrong it won't be the first or the last time.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/10/2004
Posts: 22
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HNC,
I am also considering that this might be the beginning of Wave 3 of an impulsive move towards the 76 - 91 range...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I show its a wave 5. I have a feeling it will be a "failed" wave 5, but the projection for the wave 5 is 92-114. I am using weekly charts to take out some of the noise in the daily. On a weekly, the stock made a perfect wave 4 ABC correction and is now in either wave 1 or 2 of a 5 impulse wave up.
I hope you're right ltfinger. If someone told me I could sell right now for 76, I certainly would do so.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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well ill have to tell you all apple is going down im holding 10 contracts of the june 70 calls....sorry to tell you...nah i really think its going to punch through 70 nicely correct back to the 75 area and with a nice tail wind take out that high...i anticipate near the high Old Steve-0 will introduce some new products...i dont think he is going to rely solely on the i pod for revenues....and with turning the table on windows his PC sales should pick up....thats the smartest thing he has done yet especially with VISTA on the way...im sure DELL had a sleepless night when Steve-o announced that....i hope he makes a cell phone soon....
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC, your thoughts on this:
Keep in mind, I do have some call spreads on AAPL. But I think it is a bit premature to say AAPL is in a wave 5 at this point.
In my view, the preferred count is that this is wave 2 (up) correcting wave 1 down from the January highs. I can easily count the decline from January as 5 down from the Jan high. That means, I believe 5 waves have been complete for AAPL, implying the major trend is down, so new highs are not to be expected, if this count is correct.
I base this on:
1. Momentum divergence on the wonthly and weekly.
2. Weak volume on the Volume MACD (my custom indicator) at the January high.
3. Volume since the recent low has started to become weaker as AAPL has advanced. I suspect one more high at the 75-76 level, but that is about it.
Of course, this wave 2 correction is likely to be sharp, and worth playing from the long side, as we have seen. I agree that the probably peak is around 75-76. But from there, I'd be selling, and likely looking to institute some shorts.
Of course, should volume improve as we make it up to those levels, I might change my tune and agree that we are in a wave 5 advance.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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If the last downward wave were truly a wave 1 down it would have a target price of 19 to 26 dollars according to MT predictor on a weekly trend. Wave 3 started in april 2005 and ended on the week of January 9th 2006. On a weekly basis the correction is a perfect abc correction. Each leg of the correction was predicted by MT predictor.
All that being said, I believe the market will correct long before apple has a chance to reach the 76 dollar level unless something drastic happens.
I think where we are differing is you are looking at minor trends and I am looking a major trends.
When I look at it on a minor or itermediate term basis, apple will only make it to the 72-74. That is the area I will most likely sell if it ever gets there.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (rmr1976) 2. Weak volume on the Volume MACD (my custom indicator) at the January high.
3. Volume since the recent low has started to become weaker as AAPL has advanced. I suspect one more high at the 75-76 level, but that is about it.
I agree with everything you just said. Volume just isn't there right now. Even on this little rally volume is below it's 50day MA.
As far as using a MACD on volume, not many people are as keen as you are on how important volume is. I do something similar that I think is even better and I thought you'd be interested in looking into it. Keep in mind that I've personally never had much need for MACD when you can just look at the MA's and see if they're converging or diverging. But hey, our brains all work differently.
Having said that, I put 2 MA's on my volume bar. One yellow is a 50 day MA and a purple is a 5 day ma. The advantage I see to this is you get all the benefits of the MACD on the volume bars PLUS, you can very easily see if volume is above or below recent trends.
ie - If volume is below the 50 day MA on a rally, it is likely to fail and of course the opposite is true for high volume on a pullback, etc.
When the 5 day MA crosses over or under the 50 day, you can clearly see the volume trend. Not only can you see the trend, but as stated above, you can also see if the trend is above or below the recent average volume.
Give it a try. I really think it's far superior to just the MACD.
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