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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Davidjohnhalls wisdom is timeless. He mentions that from debate a new perspective can be born. It is in such a discussion with Agm32 that I have given new life to my study of trends and channels.
Signaltap has been forecasting the rise of gold in his analysis. Benk and Funnymony I believe concur. I too have been studying Cyclical Markets as of late and from all the data, all seem to agree that Gold is intermediate term Bullish.
I have been pouring over the Gold charts and I have been walking price forward one day at a time within successful trend changes and the formation of trend channels. Taking into consideration that most of the charts within this sector are currently experiencing pull-backs then I thought why not catch the next trend shift. From what I can see that in some of the charts that shift is taking place right now. Is this not what traders try to do? To be in the right place at the right time.
Bellow I am posting two charts for the Gold stock ABX In the first chart I have identified in the current daily price action the potential berth of a new trend and channel formation. As a guide to my belief I am using the same chart earlier in its history. I show the comparison in my second chart. Just view the price action within the Yellow boxes; I use the white lines to show what I believe to be a repeating pattern
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The next chart will show the price action comparison. Look to the earlier channel to see how you might want to trade this new one. Always use proper trade mangement. We have discussed that many times on this forum. Never buy on blind faith for I am only discussing my personal observations.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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In my chart below I have plotted a pink candle that could give us a buy range on this stock. As you look to the previous trend channel for guidance you will notice that price will not move in a straight line up or down, instead it meanders. You must use what ever risk tolerance or stop loss that you feel comfortable with. I only post this as a possible repeat performance of past price action. If price does break into this range (pink candle) than I would use the 150 day sma (blue line) for my stop.
Good luck.
I will be updating my charts once a week for a while instead of daily. I need to pay attention to this Market action. I am expecting a Bullish move, but the action could go sideways for a while first..
Here is the chart for ABX.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I only wanted to update this chart because it is doing so well and if anyone did go ahead and buy this one then I am curious how you are trading it. What kind of stop are you using and do you have a price target? Are you trading price in a channel or do you have another method?
Below is a chart that shows how I am currently viewing this one. Price has hit some over-head resistance at $4.11 If I were just trading this bounce then I might have already sold today on the 1 minute chart at around 2:50 pm EST. There was some clear toping action as price rolled over and started to take out support levels. If I were playing the channel on the daily chart then I would be looking for an exit tomorrow based on my stops. You do not want to loose any profits that you have gained so far. This could just continue its current move but experience tells me to use caution. One last point to make here, In the last half hour of trading on the 1 minute chart I noticed a major increase in volume as price formed a nice VSA bottom. I consider this to be Bullish. I could be wrong about that but we will see tomorrow.
Here is the chart
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Price could be maxing out at the top of this new channel or price could go higher. If you are still in this one then I would put a stop @ $39.00 you will at least capture some profit and if the stock turns north again then for the price of a broker fee you are back in.
The Markets must like what is in the Job Report due out this morning. (It was due at 8:30am) because pre markets are up. We will see what happens in the Markets and how it affects ABX.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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On the 5 minute chart price looks to be rolling over. I would put a stop in @ $40.00 now that we have made some great gains. That is two points from our initial buy price.
We also are running close to the top of the channel and other resistance levels
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Well it has been a fun ride. If we are still in the stock then congrats. I still think that the Market sentiment and Breadth indicators are Bullish.
Below is a chart of the VIX (5 minute), The $TRIN (5 minute), The SPY (15 minute), and the $NYAD (Weekly).
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Price is still in a Bullish place so although an argument could be made for a Bearish doji, I like its chances on Monday. If you have to sell early then so be it. I would keep my stop at $40.00
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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It is my intention to post a live trade once a week "Win or lose" Infact I wish that others would do the same. It is not for competition purposses but for education. I am not expecting any response to these live trades, it is just to give folks an idea how I trade. I will get feed-back through my e-mails. If it does not land then I will discontinue.
There has been talk of "conspiracy" afoot on this forum so in contrast to such belief you will not know if I am trading the stock or not. Some weeks will be winners and some weeks will be a loser. It will not be up to me; it of course will be up to the stock.
I will show how I pick them and then how I trade them. I do not suggest that you folow my lead just observe.
Thanks Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 816
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Apsll,
Could you tell me about those % True indicators on your charts.
Formulas and how they are used if you'd be so kind
Regards
Bob Mc
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Hi Bob. Those spikes are really just attempts at finding bottoms. The formulas are so basic. Here is one of them
C>OANDH>H1ANDH2<H5
the idea is to find stocks that are pulling back and then starting back up. I have made about 6 of these indicators but as I back test them I find flaws in them like either they missed a good move or they have too many hits. I have made similar indicators back when I was doing my "Bounce Strategy" threads. You can get similar results by using Fibonacci retracement lines or Arcs or Fans.
Here is an indicator for "Over sold Conditions -
L< ((2.95*MINL15.7)-MAXH7.3)/2ANDSTOC50.3<10ANDL<L1
the basic concept is that you want today’s price action to be the Close > than the Open. You want yesterdays Open to be > than the Close and so on moving backwards up the pullback.
Really easy stuff.
It is still a project in the works. I put it on the back burner in part because of the amount of Bullish charts that I was trading over the last two weeks.
Sorry that there was not more to it Bob.
I will post more on this subject when I come up with better stuff.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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That reminds me about this chart for ABX.
It looks like price has come down to the bottom of the channel again. This time it has a support level to bounce off other than the channel. Double strong so it is playable again in my opinion.
Here is the update....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 816
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Thanks Apsll
All information helps
Regards
BobMc
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