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tobydad
Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2007 9:09:20 PM

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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181

SYK
TMO
ILMN
DNA
PLFE
AACC

scottnlena
Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2007 10:49:39 PM

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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
Tobydad.

Some of these came up on  my system also.

But of those that weren't  What do you think of 
VTR
IMCL
AWR
PAS
zeus
ACTL
ALXN



also several foreign fund indexes have come up ... Like EWO
tobydad
Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:30:12 PM

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Posts: 2,181
VTR  What's not to like?
IMCL  Next day or two it needs to break the resistance trendline but then looks nice
AWR  Might be still developing, just not sure
PAS  Ditto above
ZEUS  Wow! Nice chart, looks like a break above today's high and you're on your way
ACTL  No opinion
ALXN  Did very well with this stock back in 2006...obviously should have known about Diceman's advice at that time and stayed with.  Chart looks pretty good. 
scottnlena
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 12:18:53 AM

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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090



you know something just hit me.  As I recal you are great about getting into stocks before they make their nice swings.. not catching the mid section of the swing but being there for the first bit of it.  I've lately begun using TSV and Bolingerbands to help give me a heads up  as to when it's time to start looking for an entry.  I also use Williams %R just to double check that i'm getting better probabilities at a "value purchase"... though it is basically stochastics and it can "float" high or low.. It seems to help a bit.

 

The above came right from my favorite scan Which I think you'll recall.  and I've been favoring those with good volume.. But in just looking at some charts of recent swings I wish I'd caught I began to notice that a common element at the bottom is LOW volume... Sort of like a quiet before the storm.  I'm wondering if I should be focusing on the charts with low volume  at the moment where I start looking for an entry.. Obviously you probably want to see a history of good volume in the overall context... but it seems like when the good volume comes it's more of a confirmation than anything.. 

Or i'm getting my head warped by recent market conditions and I need to be looking for the blatently obvious good volume?  What are your volume thoughts reguarding these tight little entries.  I usually try to buy the break above...just incase it breaks down.

What I should probably do is each day for a week or month or so flag all the low volume members of my nightly scan date and store them and check on them in two months ... verses the good volume members that I usually keep.  Normally I look for volume to be atleat above it's 15EMA on the night it comes up in the scan and don't look at the others.  Perhaps this is folly?

tobydad
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 6:46:14 AM

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Posts: 2,181
Scott;
No, I don't think that's folly at all.  I think you're right on target.  Now, I will add that I like the low volume when the markets are healthier.  So in the market into which we appear to be entering, I try to put every probability on my side...fewer gambles as it were because it's way too easy for the gamble to turn against you.  But I think I'm saying something you already know; these thoughts may help newer traders that may be reading this.

Overall, my experience is that you are right, you'll see a dry up in buying (lower volume) just before the big boom (assuming the context you've described).  But those are scary times to enter a position, so most people stay away.  That's why I like the LR30 and BB20's on price, LR255 on OBV, BB13's on TSV26 and supporting trendlines to show early signs of strength.  Of course the CBO+.01 is helpful as well.  

By the way, not familiar with the use of Wm's%R, perhaps you could give me a little understanding on that?
tobydad
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 6:55:19 AM

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Posts: 2,181
Scott;

Also, you might want to read over this post I put in a few days ago

http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=27131

I hope it helps,
tobydad
scottnlena
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 11:54:24 AM

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Posts: 4,090

Willims %R is basically a really fast stochastics.  To plot it in TC it's
(STOC10 - 100)  and then what ever period you ar using.  I'm using a period of about 4.

The thing is I was considering his service.. in emails and the comodity traing pack but he also has a stock service and course.  Figuring that a guy who has really mae millions trading there are probably some good bits of knowledge in there.  So I called his service expecting to get a secretary.  He answered ... we spoke for a minuite and he suggested that I give his %R a try with abotu a 4-8 period as that would probably best represent the swings I try to capture and his acumulation distribution.  I found that (by way of Bustermu) to be nearly exactly Moneystream so I stick with moneystream.

Anything that you can do with stochastics can be done with %R . . . . It apears to be just faster.  It reads the same to  so divergences happen and when a stock is really running it will "float" above or below the over bought over sold lines.  But since it's so fast it's not as prone to it as Stochastics.  So it's not to say that a stock with a high %R reading cant go higher.. but that would probably fall under a "greater fook theory trade"... you are willing to over pay for the stock becasue you think there will be a bigger fool who will over pay by more.

it's similar to one of his other indicators mentioned in "Long Term Secrets of Short term Trades" where he admits that it gives false signals ...but to filter them out a bit price should be Above a moving average in an up trend for buy signals or down trend for sell signals, or some other filter.. sent the book back so I forget exactly.  The same for down trends.. % R with a high reading and begining to fall helps point oout the ideal entry area for shorts.

Again it's very similar to stochastics... so much so that the easiest way to plot it in TC is to simply subtract 100 from Sto.

Just looking through some charts it seems to generaly point out the areas where when looking at a past trend I think to my self... I wish I'd bought that right about therer... and %R generaly has a low reading.

It's not a holy grail... there is none.  But it could be a help.

diceman
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 5:48:26 PM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
You should have asked him for a bond index to use.


Thanks
diceman
scottnlena
Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2007 11:06:14 PM

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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090

Yea there re several.. I know you have given me a few.. I check them and I guess it's unfamiliarity with the whole bond thing that makes me cautious.  There is also an ETF for bonds but it seems to move unaccording to the bond tracking things you gave me.. then Which time frame ? ?   I don't think he ever mentions a specific bond index in his books.. he just says "bonds"... so if you don't know much about bonds then go figure which one.

In a past post you were saying that a person needs to be careful with trading stocks based on Bond movement any way.  So  in my unfamiliarity with it and your cautious I have been watching it a bit but haven't implemented truely.

I'm still trading the Joint signal thing.  Obviously during this current down leg it's not performing as well.  The thig was during the previous decline it kept me with a nice supply of long entries that generaly worked out.. No so this time.  So I've learned that it's not  Down trend impervious...... Just wish it didn't cost me the last several months gains.  I underestimated the magnitude of the decline and bought on the way down... got allot of stop outs.  My average droped from 67% to 57% ,  had 8 in a row bad trades.  The utility stuff all worked out.  but others were all whipsaws.. and ranging between $300 and $600 per loss.    That was unnerving.  but the good news is I'm still here (maybee it's not good news) still kicking and still planing on trading.  AND I know that if it can go this easy  it can come to.  I put 30% on my account my first trading year for god's sake.. and I don't think I knew anything then that I don't know now.  A friendlier market will help... till then there is work and practice ahead.  Averaging a $200 a day loss since the mid October was not fun  The absolute best was the two days I lost more than $1K AFTER having been up in the morning.. went to the library and came home to a solid red screen.

I just didn't think that it would be that sudden... but then I gues it was building.  I nearly completely sidestepped the last decline.. ... then steped into traffic.  As discouraging as it was .. I'm not stopping.   I now that at least in a trending market my aproach produces good stuff.  Last night my final selection was 
VTR
ZEUS
IBKR
SRCL
NYX - Calls for Jan ATM exp.
TMO

Becasue Ienter above price Zeus would never have triggered.  I Slept till 10:00 this morning after staying up till 3:00 Am two nights in a row fiddling with Backscanner and didn't submit any orders.  But it's confirmation that as far as long strategies go i'm on the right track.

There for a bit I was begining to think all this money management talk was nonesense ... the first step is to develope an aproach that dosen't lead to a majority of stop outs.

diceman
Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2007 9:02:18 AM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
This area in time should be a big focus for you.
 
My main focus is risk. I have been very pleased with my
results over this period of time.
 
If you had told me this type of market would unfold
in late DEC2006. I would have been worried about
longer-term systems. (weekly and hold type systems)
 
(we worry that we will not be able to get out of trouble,
short-term systems will be in cash very quickly)
 
These longer-term systems have performed well.
 
After the end of the year for the first time I will be
reconstructing equity plots of how the systems looked.
So that I can measure risk and drawdown info as
well as expected per day profits.
 
 
I have learned from the casinos. Winning is easy when
it happens. Its how you hold up when things go wrong
that separates the men from the boys.
 
 
Thanks
diceman
 
scottnlena
Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2007 10:32:48 PM

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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
"My main focus is risk. I have been very pleased with my
results over this period of time." ???  You are talking about your strategy?

Tobydad, or anyone who is curious:
CPNO came up on the scan today.  Large %R divergence as well as other divergences.  Huge volume spike today.. Markets rested today in general it seems.  So the question I have is that .. in guagin wether there will be follow through on this day or not.  I have been taught to see this sort of volume action as something to enter on ...In this case it's a counter trend trade so It would need to be watched closely.. but on a longer time frima It's probably due for a bit of a rally. This stock had a similar volume Experience on 9/4 which turned out to be a dud.  I'm giong to give this an entry try.. hold time 2-4 days, maybee longer if I don't get stoped out after moving the stop up.

but this goes counter to the thinking I had before aboutthe low volitility low volume periods... Well it's not really a candidate there becasue there isn't the context of  a healthy volume/chart landscape leading up to this point... but something looks to be going on.  Havent checked news yet.

Zeus gave up some of it's extrordinary gains yesterday and looks to be a little lower risk on entry point soon.  At this point I think the upper trend line could make a great first target.
diceman
Posted : Friday, November 30, 2007 3:39:52 AM
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Posts: 6,049
"You are talking about your strategy?"
-----------------------------------------------------
 
 
More like strategies and trading in general.
 
 
 
Thanks
diceman
scottnlena
Posted : Friday, November 30, 2007 12:27:49 PM

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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090

It's really  tough to find that "edge" system, especially with out needing to constantly fret over the direction of the market.  Something that is more systematic and less subjective.... I find anyway.  Most of the reports I get from ideas I have from Backscan leave allot to be desired.

I have faith in the Joint signal thing becasue I've seen it work and it's based in logical concepts.  I'm still mixed on particular "patterns" and their affectiveness.  It would seem that certain patterns do well on certain stocks.. To run say "Engulfing black after a 5 day up swing while price is under 'X' moving average".... produces usualy negative results to results something like +5% when run over an index's component list. But a smaller list compiled... by some unknown criteria it produces quite well.  So I begin to wonder if perhaps it's a scase fo certain patterns will perform better on stocks that have a history or responding well to that pattern?

But then that dosen't make sense.. everytime I get a new candidate in a tradeable list I'd need to run the tests on which signals it responds best to?  I think i's more a show of specific patterns are highly unreliable over the broader market.  When  aplied to a narrower range of stocks you may get lucky and get a better grouping that will respond to that signal..... or you may not.

What do you think Diceman?

diceman
Posted : Friday, November 30, 2007 8:54:32 PM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
Could be but isn't the real point that you are saying
candles don't work?
 
Realize that if all these things worked wouldn't we
just make money using them?
 
Why would we need to backtest anything?
 
If fib numbers were "real" wouldn't backtesting
show moving averages of:
 
2
3
5
8
13
21
34
(and so on)
 
were always the most profitable?
 
Shouldn't we put aside 12,26,9 MACD
 
and use 13,34,8 ?
 
(because they are fib numbers)
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
I cant tell you how to think but at some point
you will have to make the decision. Do I want to
use what works? Do I want to use what someone
has told me will work?
 
 
Thanks
diceman
 
 
 
chance123
Posted : Saturday, December 1, 2007 12:30:43 AM
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Joined: 11/12/2007
Posts: 5
Anyone know where to find the  against the grain scan 
Im new to TCNET and cant seem to find it anywhere.

Thanks very much
Chance
diceman
Posted : Saturday, December 1, 2007 5:04:06 AM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
chance123

Try this:
 
 
 
 
Thanks
diceman
chance123
Posted : Saturday, December 1, 2007 12:57:42 PM
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Joined: 11/12/2007
Posts: 5
chance123
Posted : Saturday, December 1, 2007 12:58:17 PM
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Joined: 11/12/2007
Posts: 5
diceman 
thanks alot- really appreciate it
chance
tobydad
Posted : Saturday, December 1, 2007 9:15:18 PM

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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181

A brief review of these:

SYK  2%, may be more to go
TMO  Near perfect chart, may be very good
ILMN  10% so far
DNA  Nicely shaping up
PLFE Consolidating, still looks like potential
AACC  Ditto

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