Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 3
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It seems to me that Google defeats the normal Telechart technical analysis tools. Worden has been all over the map recently trying to figure out if it is a buy, a sell. I don't know either.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Question - why do you think it defeats the normal telechart technicals?
I personally think GOOG will fall below its 200DMA and there will me more downside. Reason for this is the large distribution days mid January and and the end of February. If GOOG finds support on its 200DMA wait for confirmation before buying, as of now its definitly trending down.
OBV confirms downtrend, MS bearish, ADX indicates direction of trend is down. Stochastics looks good (could be better).
Just my opinion
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I agree. Personally I think the 200ma will now be resistance. I think the stock will continue to move downward until people get a better grasp on their earnings.
My software says it's a buy here with a projected target of 471.00. If that actually happens I will be impressed, but I wouldn't bet my money on it.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 3
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Perhaps I should have emphasized that Worden does not appear to know which way to call this one. Your posting re: 200ma is reasonable.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 3
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QUOTE (TRADER1938) Perhaps I should have emphasized that Worden does not appear to know which way to call this one. Both of the previous postings re 200ma are reasonable.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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Thank GOD I had already covered my short. Hope not too many got slaughtered on that.
Now that the indexes have to buy it, it may make a great short-term long play.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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Inspector62,
I hear you. I covered my short last week. I was thinking of jumping back in on a short when it start another downleg. I guess that's not going to happen.
Now the question is. What do we do? Jump in on a ride up? Or wait for a retracement?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Interestingly, I had been discussing Google on a different Elliott Wave board.
FWIW, I'm of the opinion that Google completed its bull market, 5 wave advance at the January high. The real question is the structure of the correction.
I see 2 possibilities--a complex correction that takes google in a sideways to downtrend, with a potential counter trend rally that could slightly exceede the January high--a so-called "irregular" correction in Elliott terminology. While possible, that is unlikely in this case.
The more bearish alternative is that the initial leg down to the February lows could be the end of wave 1. The entire action from that initial low could be a wave 2, and this rally could be c of 2.
Wave 2 retracements are known to be fairly steep, the thinking being that people don't know a trend reversal is underway, and decide to buy weakness in the case of mature uptrends, or sell strength, in the case of mature downtrends.
Despite the good news, GOOG didn't make it above the 55 day moving average, and is at a good target to short on the daily at current levels, all other things being equal.
Yet, all other things are not equal. Google will see some buying pressure, that might take it as high as the 425 level, due to the inclusion in the index.
From my POV, that seems as good a bet as any. There was a significant divergence on the daily. But, GOOG would be a good short anywhere between the 400-425 level. I'd also be a seller on a breakdown of the March lows, even though don't normally like to play breakouts immediately.
Perhaps Google's addition to the index is what it finally takes to get this market to move down. My analysis of the charts seems to suggest GOOG wants to go down in the worst way, and the comming downtrend should be very sharp.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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Looking at the volume. Wouldn't you expect much greater volume than what you see last Friday? That has me concerned about the strength of the move. BOP is insiginificant. MACD is still in the negative.
However, Stochastic 12,6,8 shows it should move up some.
Despite all the stars no lining up, I'm thinking about jumping on board for a few days. Anybody have an idea of a good stop loss?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/12/2005
Posts: 9
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I am a novice and relatively new in the market, so please excuse the following stupid questions?
How does a stock behave when added to an index and for how long?
Also, how does a stock behave when it splits?
Thanks.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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SBanerjee,
For your 2nd question, you can find out for yourself by scanning through the TC charts. Just look for the Note indicator mark that has a slash through it. That's the date of the split and if you click on it, it tells you what ratio the split is.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/12/2005
Posts: 9
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Thanks iryanweb for the reply.
However, I am trying to understand the behavior of the stock. On looking at several stocks, I was not able to see any particular behavior that applies generally. For example, some went down in price before the split, while some kept going up for about a week, etc. My assumption was that a stock goes up before the split. However, that's not always true either.
I am particularly looking at NVDA at this point. Although the TC chart info on split does not match with Yahoo's split calendar, my interpretation (albeit limited) of the chart shows the rally continuing. I am wondering if it will continue after the split or should I get out on the day of the split (once I am able to figure out the right date).
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Registered User
Joined: 12/12/2005
Posts: 9
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I think I should also clarify my first question which has to do with GOOG. Reading this forum suggests to me that I should get out on Mar 31 or when it reaches 425+/-. I was trying to understand how long a stock goes up after it is added in an index under a normal circumstance. I understand GOOG does not fall under that at this point of time.
Since I couldn't buy GOOG at it's current price, I bought a couple of Sep400 calls. I know its way out of the money, but given the volatility of the stock, I am hoping it won't take much time for it to reach there and beyond, especially when all the index funds have to buy it. I was initially thinking of selling 1 call when the option price doubles (assuming it will) to get back the investment, and letting the other one ride for a few months. But, after reading this forum, I think it will be wise to get out altogether. Thanks for all the insights.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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The volume on this seems low for a stock that's getting added to the index. I'm begginning to think that its gonna be a good short candidate on 3/31.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/12/2005
Posts: 9
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Iryanweb - Thanks for confirming my concern and surprise on the lack of volume too. Could you please comment again through 3/31 at least? I am going to follow your lead, if you don't mind.
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