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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I've been seeing many people post ideas on speculative stocks (ie. under $10).
While I advise most to stay away at this stage of the market cycle, there are a few I see that could become the mythical 10 bagger.
1. Helca Mining (HL) I'm bullish on gold and silver plays, and this is a cheap one. I spotted it earlier last year, during the early spring market meltdown. I kept an eye on it because it had a pretty strong Elliott Wave pattern on the weekly and monthly charts.
It completed a severe downtrend at the start of 2001. It made 5 waves up to around 7.50, and then corrected to the 61.8% retracement level by November 2005.
I'd rather not provide any long term fib price projections, because they seem absolutely ridiculous to me, but this could be the wave 3 that all Elliott Wavers dream of finding.
2. Coeur D'alele Mines. Another play on the precious metals via silver. I know nothing aside from the fact it is a silver miner. Yet, the chart is enticing.
3. Digital Angel Corp. This I will have to do a bit more research on, as it is in the health care sector, and it is placed in the Home Health services. My dayjob involves rehabilitation of the disabled and elderly, so the trends in this sector are well known to me.
There are demographic factors in favor of home health stocks. But the key to investing in this sector is to know how dependent the top line is on govt. reimbursement. If the company is involved in strictly private pay, then I'd rate it a strong buy. The health care sectors with the fastest growth rates (as far as I know) are those where there is minimal 3rd party payor involvement.
Technically speaking, the weekly chart looks nice.
There were a few tech stocks that had some interesting charts, but I would avoid them. Tech is yesterday's news. Most of the pundits are "overweight"--in tech that is. I think you need to go against the grain if you want to buy stocks in this environment. Precious metals is where I'd be betting money.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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Interesting comment on your ideas about tech being old news. I have been trading resource stocks for about 8 months now and am seeing more and more signs of this sector being overbought (buy the rumour sell the news scenario). I am currently leaning towards biotech , internet and semi conductors. I feel that gold / silver etc etc have been overplayed and now is the time to move on. I have several friends weho are wealth managers they are also selling all resource based stocks ( other than coal and urnaium ...on that note check out ACI for coal...it was trending up for the last year and dipped recently giving a good buying oppertunity)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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QUOTE (malcolmb14) Interesting comment on your ideas about tech being old news. I have been trading resource stocks for about 8 months now and am seeing more and more signs of this sector being overbought (buy the rumour sell the news scenario). I am currently leaning towards biotech , internet and semi conductors. I feel that gold / silver etc etc have been overplayed and now is the time to move on. I have several friends weho are wealth managers they are also selling all resource based stocks ( other than coal and urnaium ...on that note check out ACI for coal...it was trending up for the last year and dipped recently giving a good buying oppertunity)
LOL! You may be right for the short term--lots of gold and silver stocks are overbought, but sentiment like this is what good uptrends are made of.
As for tech--just look at INTC or MSFT. Nothing to write home about. Just look at the Nasdaq chart, it is now the weakest of the lot.
Industries--Telecom--still with too many companies chasing after too few customers. Software--an industry that is company specific. Maybe not now, but I think health sector info tech companies could make you a fortune in a few years from now. Hardware: forget it! I don't like chips, I don't like box makers (although HP has done well). Sell strength in here. I'd be looking for shorts.
As for the commodity plays: lts of the bigger name mining companies have done well. But it is the speculative players that will really clean up, marketwise, once people get a bit of gold and silver fever.
But,I'll let the charts speak for themselves.
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Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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I know the ones that I've played from the start of the year based on some excellent TSV set ups are: BPUR, BTRX, DVSA, TTP, and PRCS. I've done some due diligence on all of them and passed the "once over"... and they still look have more room. Would be interested in feedback.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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My software currently shows HL is in the beginning of an itermediate wave 5. It predicts the stock should minimally make it from 5.60-5.80. Typically it should make it to 6-6.20. Now whether it does this in this market evnironment I don't know, but it sure looks like a good prospect.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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BPUR has appeared to complete wave 4 however it could go down another 8 cents before it makes its move up. It hasn't had it's reversal day yet, but if that reversal day occurs soon which I believe it will, the prospects for the stock typically would be in the range of 1.20 to 1.27.
There is no elliott analysis for BTRX
DVSA is currently in an intermediate trend wave 3. It is expected to go to 7.57-7.66 before it has a wave 4 correction. It does have an outside chance of going to 8.40 to 8.60 area.
TTP is also currently in wave 3. If the stock can make and hold above 3.17 it has an excellent chance to go to 3.46-3.62.
PRCS is currently in a correct wave 4. This wave is expected to end in the area of 4.75-5.31. It should then start an upward wave 5.
You picked some good stocks with great potential. Of course if the market corrects all bets are off.
These predictions are only predictions but if they work out come back to this thread and say they did. I am really curious as to the accuracy of the software. So far it has been pretty darn accurate in my trading, but I have only used it for a couple of weeks and I still have much more to learn.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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Do you mind sharing which wave software package you're using? And I'm on the CMT track and have burned through the wave principle books-- so while my "wave principle" experience is within a few years of growth, I'd still love to have objective view on the side.
Thanks!
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I am using and testing MT-Predictor. It works in conjuntion with TC2005. It even can go into your watch lists. So far I like it, but the jury is still out. I have gone and backtested many setups the program has selected, and you cannot just blindly accept what it gives you. It sometimes gives you some things that don't make sense so it is important that you can distinguish between legitmate setups and hogwash.
The basis of the program is you get put into low risk positions so the program can actually be wrong more than it is right, and you still come out ahead. It does not find many stocks to buy or sell each day. I have it scan through the russell 3000 and it may only find 8-10 stocks. Normally I can eliminate 3-4 just by looking at the pattern.
So far in my testing, the program is correct in predicting the stock movement of those stocks selected about 65% of the time. I think this number will improve as I learn and get better at recognizing good trade setups. I have already seen major mistakes that I have made in accepting some of the setups the program has given me. The program has great video training online, but it is a lot to absorb. Had I listened and learned everything, I would not have made those mistakes.
They make an end of day version, and a real time trading version for day traders. I have the eod version.
I know people may think it is voodoo, but I am telling you when the program predicts something and the stock really moves in the direction it is supposed to move it is absolutely amazing at how close this program can predict it's movement. It cannot predict the movement of every stock in every situation unless it finds a pattern. If you find a pattern that it did not recognize, you can put it in manually and it will make a risk/reward analysis and prediction where the stock will move to if your analysis is correct.
Of course, the key is as it is with any system, is to trade with the trend of the market. I've never confused brains with a bull market. No system will be successful if you go against the trend.
The program is expensive at $1795. If I had it and learned how to use it properly I would not own 9 puts on the dow at 10,900. I would own 9 puts on the dow at a minimum of 11100 which is what the program predicted on Feb 7th.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I am using and testing MT-Predictor. It works in conjuntion with TC2005. It even can go into your watch lists. So far I like it,
...
The program is expensive at $1795. ...
Are anycosts involved with your test of the MTP program? If so, how much?
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (motmouth) QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I am using and testing MT-Predictor. It works in conjuntion with TC2005. It even can go into your watch lists. So far I like it,
...
The program is expensive at $1795. ...
Are any costs involved with your test of the MTP program? If so, how much? Happy Charting
That is, non-trading cost.
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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The only other costs is you have to keep a data source such as TC2005. Actually, I am happy about that because I love the worden group, and this program. If someone came out with all the market data for one dollar a month I would still keep tc2005.
There will be upgrades to the program and they only charge you when there is a major version upgrade. Right now they are on 5.0. When 6.0 comes out they will charge 5.0 users who want it. The last upgrade from version 4.0 cost 195 dollars for the end of day version and 495 for the real time day trading program. The real time day trading program costs 2290 dollars.
Is it worth it? I'll let you all know, but I honestly have found something a little disturbing. Since it only picks a few stocks per day, apparently there are enough people setting their stops at the same place. This is not good. If a market maker sees numerous orders at the same price he will find a way to reach them and take them out. I have seen too many prices that were the low or high that turned out to be the exact trigger price to enter or short the stock only to move away quickly in reverse from that price. Ap
I think I am going to use this program more in manual mode. The program gets you in on the very top on a move down, or the very bottom on a move up, and at a very low risk point. I have never been able to trade from these vantage points in the past.
You don't have to be a true elliott wave expert to use it manually. You just have to understand what an ABC correction is, and what a perfect one looks like. That is very easy to do via the eye, but not via the computer looking for the pattern.
I have not found a pattern that the program has selected in the last two days that I liked,so no new purchases. Of the 11 stocks I have purchased I have been stopped out on three of them. All 3 were bad pattern choices on my part. Five of the eight stocks I am still in have improper patterns as well. Some of those are still working very well, but I should have never purchased them. I am trying to decide whether to let them go, or take a small profit or loss and get out.
We all have been is discussions on risk. For swing and short term traders of stocks he recommends only .1 to .5% of your portfolio as an allowable loss per trade. For day traders he recommends no more than 2% risk per trade. He does this because he doesn't want anyone risking too much on one trade. This is a grind out strategy much like the casinos use. The casinos know if they can keep you gambling they will ultimately win. He knows if you stay in the game your large wins will out perform your many small loses.
The toughest part is when your stock is profitable but turning a little south. Most people have a tendency to protect profits and get out. You should not do that with this program. It will take away your big winners. He recommends that when it moves up well past your entry point, but below the target area to move your stop just to your break-even area and let it run until it reaches the profit area predicted. After that it reaches the minimum profit area do you move up your stops. One of my stocks I got stopped out on was one I had a good profit so I moved up my stops because I don't feel the market is in good shape right now. Well that stock is still rising and has now reached its minimum profit level. I should have still been in it.
Anyway, it is a great learning experience if you don't just take the setups blindly. It is not a panacea of perfect pattern recognition, but I plan to do some pcfs in tc2005 that look for recent lows or highs and let this puppy predict where the eventual low will be in the stock.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) BPUR has appeared to complete wave 4 however it could go down another 8 cents before it makes its move up. It hasn't had it's reversal day yet, but if that reversal day occurs soon which I believe it will, the prospects for the stock typically would be in the range of 1.20 to 1.27.
There is no elliott analysis for BTRX
DVSA is currently in an intermediate trend wave 3. It is expected to go to 7.57-7.66 before it has a wave 4 correction. It does have an outside chance of going to 8.40 to 8.60 area.
TTP is also currently in wave 3. If the stock can make and hold above 3.17 it has an excellent chance to go to 3.46-3.62.
PRCS is currently in a correct wave 4. This wave is expected to end in the area of 4.75-5.31. It should then start an upward wave 5.
You picked some good stocks with great potential. Of course if the market corrects all bets are off.
These predictions are only predictions but if they work out come back to this thread and say they did. I am really curious as to the accuracy of the software. So far it has been pretty darn accurate in my trading, but I have only used it for a couple of weeks and I still have much more to learn.
Just an update on those predictions because I am so impressed by them. I wish they were my own, but they are not.
BPUR has yet to finish wave 4 so we basically have nothing to report on that.
DVSA was right on the money, it reached a high of 8.84 and a close of 8.40 on 2-27
TTP closed at 3.68 today, only .06 over the prediction.
PRCS did not reach it's low in the 4.75-5.31 area to complete wave 4, but it is now indeed in wave 5. I never gave a price target so I will do so now. The minimum this stock will go up to is 6.36 to 6.46. Should it close above 6.46 it's next price range would be 6.91-7.02
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
Good call on HL. It broke out this week to a high of 5.86.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I wish I would have bought some.
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Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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HNC-
Thanks for the update on those microcaps... have been sweating some volatility. BPUR feels good after their numbers... TSV, MS leading the way
DVSA- I put a stop in at 7.50 thinking that was some sort of minor 4 that should hold (if not, trouble)
PRCS- will likely use above 5.50 as a stop thinking the apex of that triangle should hold (if not, trouble)
PTIE- actually met with mgt in DC last week... still really love the fundamental story behind it (non-addictive pain killers, etc.) but it feels like it wants to drip to 10 again above that gap
TTP- need Pepto for this one... 15-min bar suggests this could hold for now, but there's some big money that yanks it around. Hoping this is simple correction (tough to get elliott count on these microcaps, but would love to hear any warning signs if there are any)..
Will pay you guys back with some interesting tsv divergences that came up on my scan recently...
In no particular order: KND, ADTN, APOL, BUD, CECO, CVC, HMA, HRB, SPC (REALLY liked the look of this one-- although now that I look at it again, this may be a minor 4 flat off the q405 lows)
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