Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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the market situation now i'm finding is an unpredictable nightmare. we all know its a bear market, and we're all aware of bear market rallies taking out shorters. but if you don't have a day trader's account, how can you possibly trade without being stopped out every other minute, or find that you've been on the wrong side of a gap up or down the next morning?!
the ultrashort and ultralong etf's are an even bigger nightmare. unless you start in them at an all time high or low, this whole fight that's taking place between bears and bulls at the dow 8000 mark means that one day you might be sitting on a fortune, the next, find that a huge chunk has been taken out of your portfolio. holding them for more than a day is crazy right now. holding them for much longer is also nuts because of decay.
the banks have been taken out this last couple of weeks. the general concensus is that there is another real estate crash coming at some point, but SRS is scary as hell! SKF and SRS which were at one point in sync with each other are not markedly out of sync.
so i guess what i'm asking is...how are all you swing traders out there doing? have you all morphed into day traders?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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If trading like a commando isn't working ...
Then trade like a sniper ...
You don't have to be in a fight ... every single minute ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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It is a whipsaw to say the least,. I've seen so many false breakouts and reversals, I need a drink....
Maybe that is the plan, drink and trade, I'll try that tomorrow....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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you wait til we break 8000 one way or the other then.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Dj, how are you. Just some advice; one should never be a one dimensional trader. You need to adapt to changing markets. Right now (IMO) is not the best time to be swing trading. I have found that it is better to protect capital by sitting on the side lines and waiting for the conditions that you are comfortable trading in than it is to be trading just to be trading.
Just my opinion.
good luck buddy..
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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cheers guys, that's exactly what i'll do. wait and wait until the dow breaks decisively up or down
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2008
Posts: 81
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QUOTE (Apsll) Just some advice; one should never be a one dimensional trader. ..
This coming from someone who refuses to short stocks. Hmmm..... .
(Sorry Apsll, I just couldn't let this one go. Please take no offense).
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Oh none taken toosie. I catch it on other forums as well. I do not play options or short the market. (I do buy the ultra short ETF's so in a way you could say that I short but not really.
My diversity comes in the form of knowing when to swing trade vs possition trading vs day trading or just not trading. I use many different styles of analysis and scaning tools and when the best market conditions are to apply them. You are correct however as I admit fully to being an Uba Bull.
I love good natured ribbing so keep it coming  
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (Apsll) .........or just not trading.
lol, now this sounds like a new one.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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New for you folks here, yes. I started posting on some other forums and they only know the Bear Market side of me. You guys here only really know the Bull Market side of me. Some here know both.
Protecting capital is far more important than to expose it to un-familiar territory. So I put it to work in other areas. I have been in and out of TBT as of the last few weeks. BCSI is starting to look good to me. Take a look at the monthly...
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Registered User
Joined: 5/25/2008
Posts: 7
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In thinking about what has helped me to the most in the last four weeks it has been sitting on the sidelines more often than not waiting for the setup or degree of probability i am happy with before entering and even then its with smaller than normal initial trade sizes.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Swing trading in this market has been wonderful. There are no tempting "maybes", so I don't spend alot of time 2nd guessing; I just wait for the really good set-ups. Then the extreme market volatility makes up for all the time waiting.
Remember, the cup's half full.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (tobydad) Swing trading in this market has been wonderful. There are no tempting "maybes", so I don't spend alot of time 2nd guessing; I just wait for the really good set-ups. Then the extreme market volatility makes up for all the time waiting.
I agree completely ...
And although I don't advocate countertrend trading ... I must admit that that has primarily been where most of my profits have come from in this bear ... buying low foreign markets when the dollar is high ... and riding the bounce in those markets while riding the correction in the USD ...
But ... the key is still waiting until as many factors as possible are tilted in your favor before pulling the trigger ...
If in doubt ... sit it out ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Not in the vain of argument, but most stocks in my watchlists are following the indexes. They seem to be churning as if deciding the direction that the markets will go. I have played a few break-out charts and ETF's but I am not seeing any swing patterns. Looking backwards I see a few charts that could have been swing traded but who knew back then. The type of swing trading that I do requires a trending price action.
Can you share the stocks that you guys are swing trading? I would love to see what I am missing. I love to swing 
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Although I didn't use the ETF ... because an open-ended fund gave me a day's advantage ... I can somewhat illustrate what I'm talking about with an ETF ...
The DXY0 showed it's hand on 11/24 ... so I took up an emerging markets position that allowed me to get in at preffered prices since many of those markets were not yet open (look at EEM) ... and open-ended funds must let you in at the closing NAV ...
When the DXY0 reversed on 12/18 ... I exited the positon ...
Price & exchange rate ... two ways to win ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I like EEM, it is currently bouncing off support and I love this accumulation bottom. I would not consider this swing trading but then again I did not write the book... Thanks RC for giving me another chart to add to my watchlist....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 40
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DJ, I keep stats on my daytrading and my swing trading. My stats have shown me that swing trading has been harder than daytrading for some time. Over the years I have learned to adjust my trading to match my stats. In 2008, my daytrading was from 55-85% of my trading versus 15-45% for swing trading. 2008 was the most difficult swing trading environment since I have been keeping track and I go back to 1994. For one brief period I was down to 100% daytrading. I suggest you keep stats on both and scale back your swing trades when the going gets tough. Good luck..............Nike (aka Sir 8 Fortunes)
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Registered User
Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 2
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I like to momentum trade to the upside ....very slim pickings....Good Luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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OK, hopefully time to awaken from the nightmare....let's see what happens.
Here are some possibilities (these are probably 3-5 day holds...don't try to ride for more profits in this market...watch VIX--X like a hawk):
Buys (for me) are conditional limit or market order above yesterday's EOD HOD or using most recent 1-2-3 high. Stops are a little more involved; not time to discuss right now.
HUN
TNL
ANR
FNM
ESLR
CPE
APP
HTX (a long shot but lots of potential)
WLL
WLT
That's it for now. Please be careful out there. Too many big money guys that will give you a lil head fake and then, Pow!, your money is gone. Just watch yourself.
Good hunting and God's best (which, as you may know, is the gift of His Son for us all)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Some additions to the list (again, these are longs):
WATG
SLG
BAC
STSA (risky, high potential)
MTRX
WBS
FOE
RBS
APPY (may not want to buy just yet but an interesting one to watch)
IO (soon, very soon)
STT
SCR
FEED
FUQI
SBLK
LDK
MFW
SLT
SAY (buy above 2.21, the 1-2-3 high)
MSCC
C
AHD
Almost too many to look at. Again, be cautious. Getting excited and jumping into something is NOT the way to succeed in the markets. Remember, if there is one thing you CANNOT be without, it is working capital. You can be short on anything else; technical information, common sense, sleep; but you cannot do without capital. So protect it.
All the best.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Last two:
CSIQ
JASO
I like the looks of these.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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NTAP is interesting
THOR new ATH at 33.44, nice looking Dragon pattern, but let it get past 33.44 before you buy, this may not be the cycle to buy this one but it's good to keep in your list for next bounce
AET
HUM
Lots of REIT, metals and mining (although they may be stagnant for the next few days), healthcare, business mgmt.
Interesting.
K39 over 50 has turned up quite a few candidates.
I don't think this is a one day bull trap. I do think alot of people are going to get in over the next few days only to lose their money because they're not going to be content with getting what they get and getting back out to the sidelines for the next time the Rolling Stone (or Kidney stone, whichever you like) bounces on its way down the hill.
Stay humble; this will help you stay objective. And, again, please be careful; I was blessed with a good run last time I listed some stocks...that guarantees nothing about this group. Due diligence is the word for the day.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Tobydad, question. Are these the swing trades that you made reference to earlier in the thread when you stated that conditions are ripe for swing trading? I am just curious as to how you define swing trading.
Not to start trouble but it looks to me like the Market is getting close to resistance and a possible major shift to the down side. I mentioned on another thread to Davidjohnhall that we can not be lured into a false sense of Bullish bottoms right at the time when the market technicals are Bearish.
Just my opinion. Good luck on your picks. I will be watching them for the rest of the week.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Apsll;
Good to talk with you, I've had so little time lately.
Yes, these are swing trades. I think of swing trading as short term (several day to several weeks...several days in this case).
You're not starting any trouble, you're offering an opinion. Yes, it definitely looks like we may be hitting some resistance for the markets but the VIX looks like it's definitely heading for around 35 or so.
As well, my scans are turning up so many good looking patterns; sometimes I will use that as an indicator in and of itself.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Yes old friend, always nice to chat with you. I am reminded of my studies. During the last Bear market there must have been more than a few that were convinced of a bottom in May 2002 when there were many, many charts that looked to be finding their bottoms. It was only a matter of a week or so latter that the harsh realities of the nature of the Bear Markets sank deep into there psyche as it only took five months or so for the SPX to dive down from 854 to 767 "just when you thought that it was safe"
I agree that we might have a little wiggle room left before the next crevasse or I could just be wrong all together. Either way just make sure that you are wearing your parachute.
Here is what the markets looked like in 2002 right before they took a major tumble. The bulls were randy but the Bears wear hungry.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Correction the SPX fell from 1107 on May 17 2002 to 767 on October 01 2002
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Apsll,
On a previous thread I discussed that the VIX looked like it was possibly forming a W. It just looks like we're heading into the second low point of the W. I only expect these trades to be good for a few days (if at all, of course).
No, don't be mistaken, I continue to believe, as I have said for sometime, that we're heading for somewhere around Dow 5500 if not lower.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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OK, folks. I just checked. Be on high alert. VIX has already pierced the support level I was watching. So if you're putting any credence in my comments, you might want to consider tight stops or trailing stops on every long you've got.
We could be getting ready to go over the falls.
Please fasten your seat belts and be sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked position.
Oh yeah, one more thing, you may want to put your heads between your knees.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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wow that was short period of time playing the longs!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Yeah, but some 7% returns and higher in a few hours? Not bad.
Besides, we don't know that it's over; I'm just saying to keep your head on a swivel.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2009
Posts: 5
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Yeah, I sold off positions yesterday while they were high yesterday because of being burned 2 weeks ago with the head fake.
We were just about to take off last week, and then MSFT announces early...
Guess I'll have to be patient and play coming back down...
Think gold is going higher, but don't want to jump in after that nice run, missed my enter back at 813 or so.
I would buy some call options on PCAR today if swing wasn't so erratic.
PAQBX 4.6 X 4.9.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/12/2006
Posts: 1
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Hard. Once you enter a trade draw a trendline and if its breaks close your position.
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