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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I think it just might be possible that we are in the recovery stages of this horrible correction. I did a custom date sort for the slope of price action from November to February and only kept the stocks with a negative slope (Stocks that were clearly affected by the correction). I then did a second custom date sort on price slope from Feruary to now, or current date and kept only the stocks with a poitive slope and at least 40% institutional support, along with very liquid volume levels. I found 38 great candidates for Bonanza Bottoms. (It is my belief that now is when bottoms are being formed) In my chart you will see the stocks that I believe are good Bonanza Bottoms.I have two Templates and I am going to show you how to set them up. I have re-vamped the entire Templates.
Template one
In the top window just plot price (Candlestick) with BOP showing on the candles and a simple 60 day moving average
In the middle window plot exponential TSV30 with a 100 day simple moving average, and Money Stream, then this Percent true indicator - XAVG(TSV,30) > XAVG(TSV100,30)AND(BOP>40) I do not know why but this indicator slows the system down quit a bit and your sorts will take some time.
In the bottom window plot Volume bars and OBV with a 100 day simple moving average on the OBV and this percent true indicator - OBV > OBV100
Template two
In the top window plot price (candlestick) with BOP on price and a 125 day simple moving average.
In the middle window plot BOP and to BOP add a three day and a twenty eight day exponential moving average.
In the bottom window add volume and this percent true indicator -
XAVG(BOP,3) > XAVG(BOP,28)AND(BOP>30)
I have other templates that show when on the first day the percent true indicators hit, but sometimes they are very short lived and I am not sure that they are relevant. If you want them just let me know.
If indead we have seen the bottom of this correction that some feared was a Bear market than I will be switching away from my bounce strategies as I am already seeing less of them on my scans, same goes for VSA. I noticed that Davidjohnhall from another thread used the stock SID to demonstrate the Darva's box threory when I put the stock on a weekly and daily FAN Template the Fan has stayed intact since early 2007. that means that no moving averages have crossed down.The Idea of the Fan is to be formed from a successfull Bonanza bottom. When I look at all long running momentum stocks like SID That is how it was formed and is still going strong today.
Anyway here is my list of potential candidates for a Bonanza Bottom formation. Let me know what you all think. If you have any questions for me than I will be glad to respond.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Thought that you might be curious to know that Technitrader is telling their students its time to start getting busy on fundamentals fr position trade opportunities that will be coming up soon and to start grooming watchlists for recently compleeted or compleeting bottoms.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Thanks Scott you just confirmed that my analysis of the situation is not far off the mark. I have not been in touch with Techni-Trader for some time now. I found that a lot of martha's conclusions were identical to that of my own (I learned a lot from her), and did not find it necassary to continue to pay for their services. You still use them?
I am getting excited, now that the possability of a continued Bull Market looms on the horizon. (So many possabilities).
By the way on the live chat they are talking about DUG and how the oil industry is topping giving way for a rally for the ultra short ETF. If you look at the TA of DUG you can see the smart money getting ready for this play. I will buy above $32.00. You already have a good position at $31.10 you might want to add to that. I am going to start with 1,000 shares above the high of the last few trading sessions.
Good luck.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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yea I still use them.. I wan'ted to watch and experience a few full cycles and get her take on them. Pluss She called the housing top back in 2005 . I was BRAND new then... so I didn't proffit like I could have as I wa sceptical an unshure how it would play out. I'll catch her next call like that and work the hell out of it.
I also like her new technology reports and to be honest seh often gives out stocks tht are fundamentaly gone over (for the Technitrader fundamentals) and it's just easy to slap them on a watchlist ratehr than do it all my self.
I like the longer term discussions as well. The private conversations are fairly minimal now.. and i'm settling into a flow of what I do and like so I think fairly soon i'll be cutting back to just the long term discussions.
I find that they are fairly early on allot of their calls. Soem times to early as I get excited and jump in to soon.
I can't say I don't like them. I've had my bitches in the past but it was mostly my problem.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott I am glad that you are still getting somthing from them that is of use to you. I have been plotting trend lines on all the major Indexes and they have all broken free of any reistance from the down trend I would say that we are officially back in the Bull Market and there are a lot of good bottoms to look at. Kinda like going to the beach, if you know what I mean..
Anyway, I am looking at how stocks responded in June to early September in 2006 the end to the last major correction that we had. I am focusing on Volume and BOP and price action. I am going to take advantage of this new rally. With every new one that takes shape, I am more educated and better prepared...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Apsll
When I try to set up the templates you give above, I get messages “Not enough data to calculate” for both XAVG(BOP,3)>AVG(BOP,28) AND (BOP>30) and XAVG(TSV30)>XAVG(TSV10030) AND (BOP>40)
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Good morning Bcraig long time... I do not know if this is the reason but your formulas do not match the ones that I posted. You might want to copy and paste them, If they still do not work then I would go to the ask a trainer section and ask them why they are not working for you. They work fine on my Templates. Do not forget to do the first step concerning the custom date sort. you want to find stocks in a bottom formation or just starting to recover. My chart below is the type of chart to be looking for. Price has broken free from the bottom and forming the first box, stage, step, consolidation, whatever one wants to call it. What is important is that there were clear signs of accumulation within the bottom formation by way of the indicators that I designed.
I am going to buy this today if it breaks the box above $9.00 (if any take offense to my calling these stages a box then please let me know. I am not attempting to make light of Darvas' hard work).
Bcraig you told me about a year and a half ago that you portfolio was at about $5,000 have you had any success in growing it? I hope that you have, then you can buy larger shares. Please let me know if you have more questions.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (bcraig73450)
Apsll
When I try to set up the templates you give above, I get messages “Not enough data to calculate” for both XAVG(BOP,3)>AVG(BOP,28) AND (BOP>30) and XAVG(TSV30)>XAVG(TSV10030) AND (BOP>40)
Try
XAVG(TSV100,30)
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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(BOP,3)>AVG(BOP,28) AND (BOP>30)
Bcraig this is the proper formula for the BOP indicator -
XAVG(BOP,3) > XAVG(BOP,28)AND(BOP>30)
Jas0501 thanks for helping out.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I just wanted to share the latest list of the final 38 for good bonanza bottoms. The list is much longer of course but I am in a couple of these and I am not sure if I will hold over-nite or keep them for a while. There is money to be made here. The green numbers are price percent gain today and they are all up.
Happy hunting.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Well I was in and and out of ISIL earlier today, I also bought ADI and I am still holding, but it was not until about 3:30pm that my prayer was answered, BONT entered into my buy zone on strong volume. and I bought 3,000 shares at $9.37 My plan is to hold this one for a while (I hope). Here is the chart.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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Apsll, I certainly like LRY and SWHC.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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By the way, The changes in my Avatar and chart appearance are due to yet onother forum (and the best That I have found) this format just looks better over there. Scott is over thre too. They have a lot of videos and cool stuff.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Laphill I almost got into LRY but for some reason did not. I do like it for a longer time frame however and will still be watching it. Are you still holding SWHC it looks like it as going to bounce off support from mid 2005 and early 2006 right here If you are still in it then I would hold and put a stop below the low of said support which the low was $5.90 so I would go with a stop at around $5.70 That would still be a profit for you I think. I know that you have been talking about this one since at least february. Or you could use the 20 day sma for support.
Either way good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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Aspll, what was a ceiling now could be support around $6 for SWHC, however I don't think it will retreat that far. 20dma could also work. Seeing resistance just under $10. Still holding. Owned LRY in '05-06. Reentered mid April.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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QUOTE (Apsll) By the way, The changes in my Avatar and chart appearance are due to yet onother forum (and the best That I have found) this format just looks better over there. Scott is over thre too. They have a lot of videos and cool stuff.
You're right Apsll. That is the best forum yet. Thanks Scott.
I just registered over there as toptrader8.
Thanks,
mp
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Apsll
I got both of the Templates OK now.
I had to change XAVG(TSV30)>XAVG(TSV10030) AND (BOP>40)
To XAVG(TSV30,0)>XAVG(TSV100,30) AND (BOP>40)
The comment by jas0501 was on target about TSV30030.
I had to change XAVG(TSV30) to XAVG(TSV30,0) to prevent a “missing operand” message.
Getting back to your question about the size of my portfolio.
In calendar year 2007, I was paper trading with an assumed portfolio size of $5000 with never more than $5000 at risk (sometimes less) at any given time. I hesitate to post this, but at the end of the year it showed a profit of eighty two percent. So far this year, through April 30, I show a profit of twenty percent, still on paper.
I am in the process of funding an account with MB Trading. I don’t know if I can continue that level of profit with real money or not, but I will have fun trying.
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Joined: 6/9/2007
Posts: 68
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Apsll, it has been a while. Hope you enjoyed your time off. I see you came back with more new ideas. I am always trying to learn, so I am trying out your Bonanza Bottoms. I created the two templates and sorted all 7163 stocks on the Template I, Middle Window, Percent True Indicator. It took a while as you had said. Then I am confused with what comes next. I sorted on the Template II, Bottom Window, Percent True Indicator. This left me with 635 stocks. The problem is that none of your 38 top hits (LRY, ADI, etc.) are on my list. Where am I going wrong? I did this after EOD on Thursday, 5/1, but I don't think that should really matter.
As always, I am thankful for any assistance you can give.
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Joined: 3/15/2008
Posts: 45
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I'm brand new. Is there an easy scan formula for bonanza bottoms?
Thanks
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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endsley
Check out these posts:
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Dj, Long time where have you been? The thing about these indicators is that they are designed to show you when the accumulation is taking place. In most cases after said activity there will be a resting period, a consolidation or even a pull back. What you need to do is start with a watchlist (not all stocks ) that have a good volume filter, (for liquidity), and the price range that you feel comfortable with trading. For me it is $2.00 - $50.00 also I need to have at least 30% Institutional support. Then I use the Custom date sort method to find bottoming stocks as explained above. Now evrey time I get a hit on the indicators I will keep the stock on a major watchlist and just because the indicators are not true right now does not mean that the stock comes off the watch list. I am always looking at these bottoming stocks with BOP & TSV and OBV you will be able to tell just by looking at a bottoming stock how much action (past or present) that it has recieved in the way of accumulation. I have a collection of these stocks on a huge watchlist and I am always looking at them all for emerging patterns or the break-out from the bottom resistance.
There are many ways the break-out can happen. one of my old ones I like to call the one, two three is a charm. That means that usualy on the third forth or fifth try to break the bottom resistance level is when you will get the break-out, then I hooked up with my friend Booker and he turned me on to his wave theory. The most important part of the bonanza bottom is that there must be clear signs of accumulation. You will see that by how many times these indicators were active durring the bottom phase.
I hope that this has helped.
Just to let everyone know my job is actually going to make me earn my money for a little while. I need to go on a business trip and will be gone the rest of this week. Just remember that good bonanza bottoms lead to good fan patterns that lead to good profits. I am still in BONT.
See You all next week.
Apsll
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