| mvillaflor |
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Gold User, Member, Platinum User, TeleChart
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| Wednesday, March 9, 2005 |
| Friday, January 27, 2006 12:00:19 PM |
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bobstel, my exposure to STOC suggests that by itself it's not be used as a buy signal. At a minimum STOC should be accompanied with other signals like volume, MACD and moving average crosing to support the STOC 'buy signal' confirmation. The STOC buy signal is typically the positive crossing of the 20% threshold. More aggressive traders use a lower threshold crossing, e.g. 10%-15%, more conservative traders use a higher crossing threshold, e.g. 25%-30%.
The use of multiple STOC collection periods, i.e. short term and longer term, helps you visualize whether the current rise in stock price has a short term, intermediate term or long term implication.
Consider viewing the stochastic video and/or just google STOCHASTIC STOCKS and you'll have a day's worth of definition and interpretation of that signal.
Hope this helps.. marcel
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Greetings fellow traders, a couple of days ago, my home developed system tracking volatility indices signaled a 1.3 standard deviation that the VIX, VXN and VXO were rising implying the markets will drop in the very near term. Just today (yesterday's data) there is an updated signal of 2.3 & 3.3 standard deviations that these volatility indices will drop instead - thus there is a very, very strong indication that the markets will be rising in the near term. Complementing this, the DOW and QQQQ's have just posted 3.3 and 2.3 standard deviation signals that they will rise as well. The probabilities of likelihood of all these signals are around 90% certainty within the next 30 days.
I compared the JCP stock to the DOW and S&P indices and note that JCP tracks the market in general. That said, I'd not be shorting the JCP stock at this time.
Time will tell... watch your trade carefully... marcel
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I'm a new subscriber to TC2000 and would like to thank all of those before me that have posted their experiences on 'trading for a living'. I too share the experience of not having produced a positive ROI on my investments during these past two years. I've subscribed to CNBCU, trendtrade.com, IBD and TC2000. It would seem that for every stock that went up, many more have gone down. I attribute my losses to poor money management and poor sense of judgement - especially during the trading day when adrenaline pumps faster.
My experinces setting stop losses is akin to my golf game - one perfect swing for every 100 bad ones. Setting the correct loss limit is difficult to set - there's no way to know whether a fibonacci limit will do (if so which one), a price envelope, a previous high or low less a security margin, a regression line your choice on average periodicity, etc. The majority of my experiences have been to set them precisely at the bottom (yes, I get stopped out and left behind after loosing 5%-10%).
I don't think the problem dissappears with programs, computers and graph analysis. I have 3 very specialized (fast, fast, fast) PCs (server quality that I build myself), I have many programs to select from including one that I've developed myself these past 2 years. Even then, when one or more indicators suggest a price rise, the stock can just as easily do an about face! We often rely on our programs and systems to give us a 'handicap' on the odds of making a good call to enter and to exit a transaction. But in the end, it's about how we individually react to a continually changing set of market forces and how we determine whether a minor gain/loss will turn into a major one.
I've developed a system (over 100K lines of visual basic code and a very complex 80MBps excel spreadsheet) that analyzes list of stocks against over 20 different indicators. I can generate over the past x years the % of success, % of failure, minimum ROI%, mean ROI%, average ROI%, and max ROI% for each indicatopr for the given. I can then group indicators and weed out the ones that are "aged" or of lower probability of occurrence (think of it as TSV and MS on steriods that numberically tells you "how well" the indicator has predicted the future). It's a dream in that there are no graphs to look at because the PC's parse through thousands of numbers and spit out the stocks that have alignment of the majority of the indicators. Unfortunately, this is not a guarantee for success - in fact a friend of mine, an experienced commodity trader (millionaire) told me that you could actually enter a trade randomly. But more importantly it's "how/when" you exit and "how" you insure preservation of capital.
As I was laid off two years ago, and have the ability to read, study, compute and analyze all day long. Sadly, it has not paid off yet. I won't quit but it's unclear to me what I've missed. I read many books and attended many seminars. PCs, tools, graphs, etc. cannot be the answer. I've got them all. Capital is not the answer. If you can't do well with $10,000. you won't do well with $1,000,000.!!!
Pardon me for rambling.. but if anyone has a suggestion on a solid way to earn a living trading (i.e. lowering loss % and probability of loss, increasing gain and probability of success) I would be humbled and indebted to you!
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