jojo7 |
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Saturday, September 30, 2006 |
Sunday, September 1, 2013 11:45:02 AM |
34 [0.01% of all post / 0.01 posts per day] |
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If you click on the link below, it is Block's training class notes provided by Craig and Julia.
You can browse thru it, and try out some of the exercises that appeal to you. New Block's developments get to the training classes very quickly.
Another good way of learning, is to watch some videos from the blocks site, working your way backwards from the most recent.
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You may be interested in this:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=30042
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David. A few more points on Darvas.
He liked bull markets with a good selection of rapidly rising stocks.
He was interested in maximum growth. "This being the case, it seemed only logical to choose those stocks that had already showed what they could do by actually doing it."
He wanted "stocks not merely rising in price, but actually in their highest boxes ever."
His potential buys had to have at least doubled within the last year.
He was very aware of the "rhythm of a stocks advance" eg1 "….and sold at 85.5 when it failed to move up through the new box as quickly as I thought it should."
Eg2 … the stock suddenly seemed to darvas to have "lost its will to rise …. It almost seemed ready to tumble."
He doesn't say it specifically but its implied that he had 2 different stop loss positions.
1) When he does a small pilot buy into a new stock that has just broken out of its highest box. He does this with a buy on stop, at a price just fractionally above the high of the old box, and then places a stop, just fractionally under this high. This way he only loses about 1 or 2 percent, including commission.
2) If the stock keeps running up, into higher boxes then he will move the stop upwards, to just under the bottom of these higher boxes.
He was prepared to be stopped out a few times, and buy back in, if the stock was otherwise behaving itself. After all he is only losing 2% of a small position each time.
He was very aware of keeping commissions down, as they were very high in his day. "I buy the most expensive stock I can afford, and I buy it in round lots."
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2 topics to explore in telechart are :-
1) $100 Scale
2) Custom date sort.
Goto telechart help topics and click on the index tab
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Bustermu
Part of Sam Allende's post on 9 march 2008 9:58:24 AM
"The logic behind this is the following. The probability is very high, that after the initial two 9 day periods which are down, there will not be two more 9 day periods which are down (subscribers can see this easily; if using percent true, just put in C>C1 and C1 ... there will be more times when there are not at least four consecutive down periods, than when there are).
Blocks3 analysis continued.
We now move to the 9 day bar charts that end 7th march 2008.
Perhaps I didn't explain myself clearly enough previously.
1 bar closing up ( a 9 day bar, bar#1 ) followed by 2 down closing bars (bars 2&3) has 30,139 occurrences in all Worden's S&P 500 stock data back to the 1980's. This is the pool of all possible investments.
Buy price is 2% less than the closing price of the 2nd down bar (bar3 )
No. of achievable investments, at this buy price, either at the open of the 4th bar (day1 ) or during the range of the 4th bar (days 1 to 9 ) = 19,340
Selling took place either at the OPEN of the 5th bar (day 10 ), if this OPEN was >= buy price, or otherwise at the OPEN of the 6th bar ( day19 )
$1000 invested on each of the 19,340 stocks leads to a GAIN of $211,879.
%gain = 1.1% approx. These are truly amazing results.
WARNING
It must be stressed that the chance of a coding error is very high, particularly on the new blocks platform, and my beginner's understanding of it. In a few days, when I get more time, I'll endeavour to check my figures.
For what its worth, I tried breaking the 500 S&P stocks up into groups of 100 stocks at a time. Either there is the same systematic error present in all of this, or Sam's system is amazingly robust.
Groups Possibles Actuals Gain %Gain
1st 100 6105 3969 47.28122 1.191%
2nd 100 5827 3662 41.49598 1.133%
3rd 100 6145 4028 45.35066 1.126%
4th 100 6026 3864 38.541 0.997%
5th 100 6124 3882 39.5094 1.018%
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Sam
Some more stats. If you want to wait for 1 more down bar (another 9 days ) before investing
3 or more down bars ( 9 days remember ) in a row = 13,363 possible investments, out of all the S&P 500 stocks.
Your worry then is 5 or more down bars in a row. This will happen 2,399 times, ie about 18%
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Sam
Some statistics, using blocks3 and all the S&P 500 stocks, and 9 days per bar, charts.
2 or more down bars ( 9 days remember ) in a row = 30,468 These are the ones you would be betting on. If the 3rd bar is up you should win. If the 3rd bar is down but the 4th is up you should be back near even.
4 or more down bars in a row = 5,611 These are the losing bets out of the 30,468. Bets lost = 18.5% approx.
This is for the 9 day bar charts ending on 14 march 2008. The charts that end on 17th march, 18th march etc will be different, but I would expect similar statistics.
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Sam
You've explained everything very thoroughly and very patiently, I thank you for that.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I imagine that you have the luxury of nearly always using limit orders, except perhaps, for the final sale at the open of the 19th day, where you are bailing out regardless. And as you state, these limit orders mostly work to your advantage. The initial buy is a limit that assures you of at least 2% MOS, but on down moves you frequently improve this. Your sell at open at day 10 is a limit, to at least exceed your buying price, or you have a second chance to make a profit at day 19.
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Sam
Thanks for an interesting series of posts and explanations. You mention that you like to buy about 12 stocks per day. I assume you have 9 rolling, 9 day watchlists active from which to choose your 12 stocks.
Also would you tend to buy less than 12 if your total number of open positions was building up.
In practice have you had large clusters of losses, or even groups of big losses, or are the losses well mixed as you would hope.
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To JJ You need the “TABLE” tool. Click on FILE / Create New Tool window. From “Select Tool” scroll down, click on “TABLE” and “OK”. Using a table you can show the numerical value of any plot at any date. To make more columns right click outside the table but just to the right of the “VALUE” heading. Click ADD / Numeric column. Next we need to get the numbers in the table. Right click on the “VALUE” heading and click on properties. This will give you a Block diagram (a very simple one) for the Numeric Column. Click on the input arrow to the “Large Green Arrow” labelled “Column”. Whilst holding down the mouse drag your input arrow up to any of the green coloured headings of the charts such as “Price History”, “Volume Bars”, or in your case, “ADX” or “DI”. This will determine what variable will be shown in the column. While in properties, over on the right you can modify “Cell Format” to adjust the decimal places. The name in the “Header Text” can also be changed. To scroll back in time you need to attach the “Date Pointer” to the “Date” column. I’ll suggest a method but you may need further research. Right click on “Date” ( the heading to the Date column) and click on properties. You probably wont see any diagram but if look towards the bottom right you should see a thick blue highlighted line thru “Table Numeric Column”. Click above this on the line that says “Table” only. In the diagram, click on the input to the “Scroll Date”. Hold down the mouse and move up to the charts area and attach to the bottom of the “Date Pointer”.
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