| bchtadd |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Thursday, December 30, 2004 |
| Wednesday, November 7, 2007 12:12:51 PM |
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QUOTE (tllucero) mid August to 11 Oct - I fought the Fed and the Fed won.
Recently - Good economic news means less Fed easing means - sell stocks???
You're in good company....many are fighting the Fed and the Fed has won 3 times...not so much this time. But even for longs, it's often a losing game. with sectors rotating ...
And even tho' we've got a 'good economy' which will every now and then generate 'good economic news', getting whiplashed on news isn't the way to make money (and journalists make even better contrarian indicators than retail investors). By "Don't Fight the Fed", to me anyway, that means as long as a Fed trend is indicated (ie, no change in direction), go with it. And lower rates means multiple expansion (ie opposite of multiple contraction)....bottom line, rising market. A diversified 25 stock portfolio (would have been nice to have purchased it on 8/16) should be relatively safe. All the 3.9 % GDP quarter means is that it would seem strange to jump from +3.9 to recession without going thru 'neutral'.
And Reality...good idea on DUG. For now all I've 'bet on' is that crack spreads have bottomed and VLO can benefit from here if that's the case....that and it's at the bottom of a rising trading range. ie, Like you, I'm sidelined on oil.
And to "Don't Fight the Fed", I 've added "Don't Short a 4 letter stock" (SYNA, for example)!
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QUOTE (laphill) I've seen global peak oil estimates from about 2003 thru 2010. If so, the next decade could be the end of double digit oil.
"Peak Oil" as far as 'conventional oil' goes will be about 2040 at around 100 MB/day. See figure 1 at:
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444
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QUOTE (laphill) Very level headed discussion gentleman. Many believe oil,gold,metals,most commodities,clean energy and water are the sectors to place your money for the longer term.
or is it perhaps time to short FCX, POT, and other commodity stocks? You're in a 'Doomsday' thread proposing 'rising' commodies. Seems strange somehow....not that I'm saying you're wrong...just 'wrong place'. As Survivor mentioned earlier...ya just can't have a doomsday and rising oil prices!
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QUOTE (realitycheck) Socrates & diceman ... GREAT posts ...
dice ... not to be cliche' ... but yours was a great "reality check" ...
Reality....I read thru this thread thinking that I was going to eventually come round to someone picking up on the fact that the original post was seriously flawed....never happened! The Bernanke presentation to Frank's committee was on one primary subject....What the Fed was doing for homeowners, et al regarding the subprime mess, for instance:
"The consequences of default may be severe for homeowners, who face the possibility of foreclosure, the loss of accumulated home equity, and reduced access to credit. In addition, clusters of foreclosures can lead to declines in the values of nearby properties and do great damage to neighborhoods.
During the past two years, serious delinquencies among subprime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have increased dramatically. (Subprime mortgages with fixed rates, on the other hand, have had a more stable performance.) The fraction of subprime ARMs past due ninety days or more or in foreclosure reached nearly 15 percent in July, roughly triple the low seen in mid-2005.1 "
of course, Ben went on to cover a lot more territory on what the fed was doing for homeowners....which was what made Ron Paul's wacko comment out of the blue about how he only worked for Banks and Wall Street so typical Ron Paul ! Given what Bernanke had just said for the previous half hour or so ( to answer such questions), no comment was made, and none was needed! Another Ron Paul moment! The Fed has a great website full of actual resources....pretty sure Paul does not.
Now, with that said, I'm curious beyond all belief as to why in the world (other than relying on the doomsday scenarios presented in the above thread) anyone would chose to be short the day before an (almost) guaranteed rate cut???? I'm sure the first answer will be 'sell on the news', and then you shorts can cover, right?
Has anyone here ever heard of "DON'T FIGHT the FED" !!
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10666...
My guess is that long ago you read Graham's "The Intelligent Investor"! Congratulations, I'm sure you've prospered! I only wish I had had the discipline to blindly follow his advice (as perhaps you and Buffett have). I still tell anyone who will listen that if you only have time to read one book cover to cover that's the one! That said, Ben Graham (to over simplify) gives you a buy at no more than a 12 P/E (his 4th Edition peg), so that would be one of your indicators, I'm sure!
Then, since Graham focuses on a "Margin of Safety" (ch.20), which depends on the industry you're buying into, the indicator might be TIE (times interest earned), or one of a myriad others to add to P/E. Per Graham "the function of the margin of safety is to render unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future"!
Another Graham chapter to take to heart is ch. 8...Market fluctuations (the Trend is your Friend). If both the stock and the market are doing higher highs and higher lows, then you've found a winner!...so RSI would be a valuable addition to your indicator list.
All in all,if you're a Graham value investor, you'll know how your portfolio looks by having done that fundamental homework to keep the bad decisions to a minimum, and with telechart keeping an eye on things, a leg up on other value investors!
Oh, and Shatterd, I'm with you...mebbe this will quiet Ben's Grave rolling down a bit!
Bruce
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Timmar,
"Window Dressing" usually refers to a process Mutual Funds go thru at the end of each Quarter. Window Dressing is the 'cosmetic' surgery of giving a Mutual Fund 'the right portfolio', so no one notices they were playing in the wrong markets/trends, etc since the end of quarter/half/year holdings are often more widely published. And a Mutual Fund that was sitting in Cash waiting for the usual September 'dive' would have to get their stated non-cash Allocation back into Bonds / Equities ....perhaps giving the Dow this little push toward uncharted territory...
Bruce
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QUOTE (robwiley) That's funny.
Trading a gun Mfg company stock with a bunch of gunrunners and criminals alike in the speculation arena called Wall Street. So Rob,
which are you, gun runner or crime boss??? javascript:insertsmiley('-)','/training/images/emoticons/smile009.gif')
[wink]
B
ps oh, and you'd be amazed at the vast hordes of us ex-military playing in your sand box!...so I'll add ex-military to your list and join in!
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QUOTE (bknight) I seem to remember that one of the index funds is an opposite of the S&P 500, moving in the opposite direction as the index. Does what symbol represents that index?
BK,
Sorry I don't have the SP500 version,
but the Rydex bear market funds are what you're looking for, for instance, RYMHX is the inverse for MidCaps, RYCWX inverse of the Dow30, RYSHX inverse of SmallCap, etc. Google their site for lots more and info on others.
Bruce
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