Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
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I pose my concerns to you three, because you not only have the needed temperament of how best to dispense, but also the knowledge there of that I seek. My success in the Markets to date has been built on this steady platform we call the most recent Bull market that basically started in 2003. During this time I have (IMO) perfected a few different trading styles that have propelled my portfolio beyond my initial expectations. A little less then one third of that portfolio is being professionally managed to my satisfaction to build the foundations of my retirement funds. The rest I have built using my limited knowledge of technilcal analysis that have been honed for about the last 10 years, (through many trials and error) and about 7 years of hard core trading.
Right Now is the first time that I feel a shift in the tides, a different smell is in the breeze. Now I do not, and have never paid much attention to the political and economic comings and goings. Surprisingly this blisfull ignorance has never had any impact one way or the other on my abilities to use technical analysis to find and trade (for profit) good stocks.
What I am asking you three is should I now be worried, should I change what I have been doing with great success since 2003. I find Micro-economics boring and tedious. In the back of my mind I always knew that the day might come when these things would have an affect on my trading. Is that day here? And if so why has it not been an issue in the last 5 to 7 years (for me anyway).
Realitycheck I owe you an apology, I must admit that I initialy thought that you were a frankenstein creation of one of bigblocks alter ego's (he has so many) I realize now that I was wrong. Your approach to the economic ripples and there effects on the Stock Market are much more palatable and consise. Why he (bigblock) feels the need to be rude and abrasive is beyond my understanding nor do I even care, as long as he keeps his distance (away from me).
Any advice or insight would be appreciated...
Thanks.
Apsll.
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Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
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I will probably have more about this when there is time but
to make a long story short. No one can define someone's risk
tolerance. The rule of thumb is you should avoid what bothers you.
Many traders especially new ones. Find out what they were dong
changes. This is why I feel a complete approach to the market
is necessary. (differt assets, timeframes, approaches)
I am a little different as I see these things as opportunities
to learn. (was there a valid use of a short EFT in this period?
How much does sector diversification reduce risk)
For the first time we have available commodity, dollar, country
short, leverage, sector, index. (I think that can only be a good
thing)
So far I am very happy with what I've put in place. Probably
one of the things that makes me different these types
of markets are exactly what my stuff is designed for.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As someone who has spent a lot of time gambling in casinos.
Your most important focus is what can go wrong. What goes
right will take care of itself.
People don't realize. its not what happens when you win that
separates the good gambler from the bad. Its what happens
when you lose.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (Apsll) Right Now is the first time that I feel a shift in the tides, a different smell is in the breeze. Now I do not, and have never paid much attention to the political and economic comings and goings. Surprisingly this blisfull ignorance has never had any impact one way or the other on my abilities to use technical analysis to find and trade (for profit) good stocks.
Apsll ....
I wish I had all of the answers ....
But .... I too have that feeling of a "Perfect Storm" ....
In the Bernanke thread, I stated when I pulled out of the Asian markets ... and then the US ... both premature ...
I left Asia with the Hang Seng at about 28K ... and it went on to 32K ....
I left the US at about 14K ... and it went on to 14.2K ....
What I fear that we are seeing here ... is the end of the Reagan Bull Market ... which began in 1982 ...
And ... in survivor's thread ... had he used this timeframe for drawing his trendlines under the Dow ... I think he would have gotten a much different result ...
You spotted the "rising wedge" in the COMPQX in your "Another vacation" thread ... and we now see that market headed down quickly to the lower trendline ....
It is not that we do not all see .... it is that we do not want to believe ....
Again ... I don't have all the answers ... but I'm 99% in cash right now (Euros) ...
The US economy has a uncanty way of dodging bullets ... so I'm not going to get all "doom & gloom" on you ....
But there are definitely a lot of issues to be worked through .... and they will likely take time ...
And you certainly owe me no apology .... as you've never been less than cordial ...
But while we're on the subject ... I owe hohandy an apology ...
I stomped on him a bit when I first arrived ... something that is really not my nature ... and I have regretted it since ...
Good Luck ....
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Registered User Joined: 2/5/2006 Posts: 1,148
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no change, just trade the market trend.
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Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
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Since I do not short the market, that is easier said then done. Some use the S&P500 for a benchmark, I use the Nasdaq. When or if the support levels are broken then I will park my assets in a safe place and wait for the next Bull Market. Instead of retiring in four or five years, I might have to wait seven or eight. Either way I will still be in my 40's...
Right now my short term trading is still working so the life-boats are still intact...
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Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
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Looking at the chart above ...proportionately speaking we haven't really done anything as bad as the decline in 2006. My main confusion is that if all the negative press is suposed to be a positive sign... then ? ? ? ? ? We are still with in you'r rising wedge.
Also I recently read Williams "The Right Stock at the Right Time". It was written years ago but he called the 2003 bottom and the 2005 buy point (as an investor timing). He calls for a significant buy ponit att he end of 2007. however the end of 2009-2012 could marke a more serious decline. He bases this on a 10 year and a 4 year cycle that interact with each other. I'm not saying that this is what is gonig to happen but that is will be interesting to watch unfold. We could get some sidewayse action from here... which would help adjust out the angle of ascent to the indexes (technicaly speaking).
As far as not shorting anything. There are the inverse ETF's. David John hall has mentiond a strategic idea of this that would center around the ETF's of the indexes ... mostly to avoid gaps, earnings suprises etc etc. ANd I assume working back and forth between the apropriate ETF.
I'm amazed that I saw that last decline coming and went to mostly cash.. then saw this one coming but reasoned that it couldn't be bad becasue we just had a decline..... So. I haven't been killed yet but i've wiped out last couple of months of gains in whipsaws and over held positions. I'm confidant that my strategy will work.. in a good market.. it was working quite well but there is to much negative energy that has been building for a while. Dont forge that right before the tech runup there was a similar rising wedge that aparently had a down side breakout and then quickly reversed.
I'm not certain what is going on witht he fundamental economics of the country.... but I think Reality check is right .. we have had an uncanny ability to "dodge bullets" and excessive doom and gloom shoud be cautioned against. I also read about an indicator called "Advisor Sentiment index" that is created by poling X number of advisors... and ironically it works in reverse... this group of people is often wrong more than they are right... so excessive bearishness by them... reflected on the index should be taken as bullishness. Then there is another one called the "Odd Lot short sale index" ...... which tracks the amount of odd lot short sales some how...These are all fundamentaly based indicators... nothing calculated from onscreen data by the way. I've had a hard time finding a free source for them but I knwo that a company caleld "Genessis market data" or something like that has this. IBD used to carry it but droped it. Any way the public trader can be counted on to be the last to the party and when their selling short activity spikes you generaly can start looking for the bottom. I have no idea what those indicators are reading now BUT i'd hazzard a guess at the Advisor Sentiment index. Read any positive headlines lately ?
Finaly .. While it's more difficult to find what will move up during a bear.. I think. There will generaly alwayse be someting that moves up... some companies will benefit from the current conditions. My first attempt at this didn't go quite as planned and it cost me $1400 to make $600 in stopouts but Ithink what is clear is that utilities are looking to me like theyare about to put on a show for us. I'm coming across more and more thta have interesting looking bottoms that are either complete or compleeting. SCG, EE, IDA, CNP AHS
RDNT
CPWR
Some would say that gold is a good bet during tough times.. but i'm not so certain... in Williams book I just finished he shows several examples where gold fell along iwth the market during an intermediate term decline... so tht is not necessarily true. Ihavent checked yet but I think some of the T-Bills/bonds are starting to climb.. There are ETF's to trade these through and Williams shows several examples where a market reversal is procedd by a Bond rally.. so it will be interestingto see how that plays out. I'm not certain that i'm tracking the right items in TC as I know little about the bond markes. Reguradelss this will be a great learning and observing experience.
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Registered User Joined: 2/5/2006 Posts: 1,148
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you should have definitly taken some profits by now, since the market in the near future is trendless at best. if the 50dma crosses the 200, then theres the major sell signal, especially since the doubletops would be confirmed at the same time. would probably have to wait a week for a good sell confirmation. then look at some bear funds on the rallys.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
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APSLL: I keep losing posts. It would seem that we have different Optometrists, or you are related to my wife, since we often see things differently.
I took a LR regression channel of 135 bars with 5 extension and 18 width and scrolled back to 1995, on weekly charts with zoom 4. The current situation does not look radically different than those "Golden Years. To be sure, '06 had a break of the lower channel, but so did '98.
Financial news is always bad. Disregarding the current media events, from a Chartist view, I don't see much at this time. The LR slope is about the same, the degree is about right. We seem to be coming off of the upper channel, as has happened so often in the past. The double top cannot be ignored and it may come to pass that the bottom channel will be broken and the bears move in. But I'm not sure that event is upon us.
You are somewhat more of a Pure Chartist than I, and I would appreciate any feed back that you are willing to give. From a chart viewpoint, disregarding all news about oil, housing , the dollar, etc. this seems to me to be business as usual, at this point.
Thank you for your time.
Mammon
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Registered User Joined: 2/5/2006 Posts: 1,148
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a good time to take some profits usually occurs when weekly indicators , ie stoch, macd, are close to giving sell signals, and a then major pattern faliure occurs on the daily, which already occured currently.
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Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
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Mammon do not get me wrong, I do not claim a lot of knowledge about Economics and the impact that it has on the stock market. You are correct that I am a pure technician. This information, like I have said, does show itself in the charts however.
I have multiple easy scans that does expose the market bias by how many charts show up in my scans. Right now and for a while now there are very different numbers that I have never seen. Even over the last few corrections that we have had back to when I first started using TC. I have never seen such low numbers.
My ignorance may be exposed but I will tell you what I think. -
President Bush is leading this country into a place that we should not be going. there is something very wrong about how we are viewed by the rest of the world right now. We have Terrorist factions that are going to continue to fight us and their main tactic is to keep a constant strain on our economy and it is working very well. Meantime China is becoming stronger and will be a force to be reconed with, They are going to demand Taiwan back at some point and what are we going to do about it???
When everyone already had a computer in their homes the tech industry topped along with the stock market. Well now everyone has a wide screen HD TV in there homes, all our children and Aunts and uncles all have cell phones. What is the next big thing that is going to propell the stock market - is it going to be alternative power sources? if that were the case then why would we be running all over the middle east fighting wars over fossil fuels???
There is never going to be a Market Crash like 1929, but unless the republicans are soon given the boot, then we are in trouble. We will recover, we always do but for the intermediat term, who knows???
Anyway here is the latest chart for the Nasdaq. Make of it what you will...
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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Apsll ....
There's a whole lot that Bush has done that I disagree with ....
But .... if you want to know how "stupid" he is .... right now ... with oil prices at all time highs ... and inflation adjusted oil prices very near all time highs ... and pretty reliable information that we have reached "peak oil" ... he has 200,000 US troops sitting on top of the world's second largest known reserve of oil .... like a mother hen ....
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Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
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Realitycheck, thanks for responding. I just hope that this cozy little nest of his will not be laced with to many precious Amarican lives and our grandchildrens economical future. The technology for alternative energy sources is right around the corner it is a shame that the current powers that be cannot see that far ahead...
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (Apsll) Realitycheck, thanks for responding. I just hope that this cozy little nest of his will not be laced with to many precious Amarican lives and our grandchildrens economical future. The technology for alternative energy sources is right around the corner it is a shame that the current powers that be cannot see that far ahead...
Well .... every life is precious ... and I don't in any way mean to imply otherwise ...
My son took his place on the "yellow footprints" at Parris Island ... on August 27, 2001 ... 14 days before the terrorists attacks of 9/11/2001 ....
But ... compared to the over 10,000 soldiers, and Marines that we lost in the first 2 days of the Normandy invasion ... the Iraq losses pale in comparison ....
If you want to see economic devastation ... devastation the likes of which will make the Great Depression look like the Good Ol' Days ...
Then let control of the US fall to someone that pulls the US troops off of those oil reserves ... and lets them fall under the control of Iran ... as will inevitably happen ...
All wars are about money ... don't let anyone try to make you believe otherwise ...
That "money" could be in the form of a resource or maybe in the form of the preservation of a trading partner ... but it's still money ....
1 barrel of oil produces an equivalent amount of energy to 25,000 man hours of work ....
To put this in perspective ... think of how many people you can feed farming with a tractor ... versus farming with a hoe ...
It will likely be around 30-50 years before alternate technologies can be developed to a point of practicality ... and then implented widespreadly enough ... to make any meaningful difference ...
And that could be a real long, hard time ....
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
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Using Dicemans suggestion on 26 month % Change for stocks in the Russell 1000, I notice today that two of the top five are Solar power stocks. In one of those "Make a Million In Oil Stocks" advertisements, they say that President Bush gave the OK to develope the Shale Oil reserve in 2005. The Canadians are making headway on the Oil Sands deposits they have and the price and technology seem to be coming together to make it feasable. There's a lot of it, between us and the Canadians.
It seems that there are several alternatives that will work and they are all being worked on. Maybe not a single one will replace everything else, but if each one contributes a significant amount, it will lessen our dependency on inported oil a lot. Fuel cell, ethanol,hydrogen,solar, coal, battery cars, hybrids, etc.
Could be promising future, but it will take time.
Mammon
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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The cost to harvest, refine, etc ... shale oil, heavy tar sands, etc ... is incredible ...
It actually takes more energy in the form of natural gas to extract much of this stuff ... than the fuel value of what is being extracted ...
But since the natural gas coexists ... it doesn't show up as a cost ... but is still depleting the gas reserves ... which we as a planet have much more of ...
The fact that they are even screwing with these types of resources at all ... demonstrates the world's desparation ...
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Registered User Joined: 12/31/2005 Posts: 266
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If you want to see economic devastation ... devastation the likes of which will make the Great Depression look like the Good Ol' Days ...
Then let control of the US fall to someone that pulls the US troops off of those oil reserves ... and lets them fall under the control of Iran ... as will inevitably happen ...
[/QUOTE]
This is really hilarious. now what was the price of crude before Bush started his crusade? $20-30/barrel? And now?
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Registered User Joined: 10/7/2004 Posts: 264
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Apsil,
My suggestion, for what it is worth, is to take a step back. Take a break and collect your thoughts. Enjoy the holidays. If you continue to trade, cut your size in half. You appear to be worried about things that are so complex that none of us can truly understand and are completely out of our control. Your gut feeling about future economic issues my be 100% right on target. Or they may be 100% wrong.
One thing you might want to consider, is that we can no longer look at the US economy in a vacume. We must look at the global economy as a whole. Many of our "blue chip" companies are multinational and a significant portion of their earnings come from outside the US. Thus, even though the US ecomomy might tank, we need to figure out what role the rest of the world will play.
It would not surprise me if we enter a bear market -- I think it is long overdue. However, I have been thinking that for a while and have been proven wrong (or maybe just early). Best thing to do is prepare for both possibilities, watch you charts and scans, and act accordingly. Based on the S&P, I think we are getting close to a decision point. We are just on the long term trendline from the 2003 lows. The March and August lows are about 1364 & 1370. Thus, it looks like we have another 3.5% to play with. Good luck.
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Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
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Damnit.. I had a big long post that was droped and I forgot to copy it to my clip board.
In a nut shelll.. I disagreed with Reality check ont he viability of alternatives... stated that there is sufficient evidence that it has been blocked for some time in this country... Evidence Isreal and Japan. Any one ever see "who killed the electric car"?. it's rentable at blockbuster or NETFLIX. Very interesting.
Stated that western world seems to like to see Arab Terrorists as some turbined, iliterate village idiot with an anger management problem.. not usually the case. Went into reant about american blind endorsement of any thing Isreal does and how it's gonna cost us. Spoke abit about a website called "if americans knew . com" or somethign like that. Independant journalism on the west bank violation of human rights of palestinians by the Isrealies. Blah blah blah.. Arabs tend to be Muslims before they are arabs etc etc etc. Went on my rant that if you really want to get scared about the economy read Paul Kenedys "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".. and Leo Gumilev's "Ethnogenisis in the Biosphere" (if you can find an english copy... google him there are aseom translated sections on line I'm shure).
Why couldn't there be another 1929? What was the pivotal point that caused that? I know the history books talk allot about credit with farmers or something.. need to look it up myself as I've forgotten. I'm shure there were other factors. All things cycle etc etc.. some peaks and troughs are extreeme... that is the way it is. Eventually we'll have a bad one again.
I thought Driger made a great and funny point. And asked some questions as to whether there was a fundamental reason for oil running up so high or if it's all speculation.. personaly I think there is plenty of oil. But reguardless in the coming years I think well see much (not all) of it's use displaced by other forms of energy.
that is it in gist. I really hate it when the posts get dropped... what causes that?
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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The electric car isn't dead .... it's alive and well ...
http://www.teslamotors.com/
0 to 60 in 4 seconds
245 miles per charge
Looks just like a Lotus Elise ...
$5K holds your place in line ....
Now then ... how long until the regular guy has one ?
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Registered User Joined: 10/7/2004 Posts: 319
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Realitycheck, my congratulations to your son. I don’t know if he is still in the Marines, but if he is, I wish him well. You sound very proud as you should be. The Marines have a great saying: “Pain is just weakness leaving the body”. I sense you served your country at one time also. Are you a Viet Nam vet? I served as a LT in the Navy from ‘71-‘75. My last duty station was the Orlando Naval Hospital. In fact, that’s where my son was born. He’s now a Naval Aviator. He flies the F-18F Super Hornet and has had 3 tours of duty in Iraq. He was the LSO who landed President Bush on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003.
On to another subject, I don’t know if many of you were around in the 70’s, but we had an energy crisis back then too. In fact, most of us experienced long lines at gas stations because of the oil shortages…....something we haven’t experienced yet during the current energy crisis.
In 1978 the National Energy Act was passed, including conservation incentives and taxes, and limits for the use of oil and gas in electrical generation.
This led to more awareness and exploration of alternative energy sources such as:
- solar energy (commercial, solar thermal conversion, photovoltaic cells)
- wind power
- tidal power
- ocean thermal conversion
- biomass
- geothermal energy
- conversion of coal into gas
- extraction of oil from tar sands
- efforts at tertiary recovery from oil deposits
Does any of this sound familiar guys? Yea, we’re just repeating history again. Those of us who believed the government would actually resolve the energy issue in a few years have grown to realize that BOTH Democrats and Republicans are guilty of getting us into this mess again…….and all of their rhetoric today is just a lot of hot air used to boost their own personal political agendas, not the well being of the American people.
If I sound a bit disgruntled with politicians, well you’re right. I’ve worked with enough of them over the years to be very wary of them all. Let’s put this into perspective for a moment. How many of you would actually consider hiring any of our Washington political leaders to run your own business or company? Not many I bet. If you did, your company would probably go chapter 7 or 11 in very short order.
survivor
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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Born in '61, I missed most of that survivor ... my first years as an adult (college student) were spent enjoying the Carter legacy of 21% prime interest rates, 18% mortgage rates, and 24% car loans ...
Reagan was a true salvation .... and those years after college were a time of relative peace and prosperity in most of the world ...
My son has been out for a couple of years now ... funny ... in 2001, he didn't think that he was quite "ready" for college ... four years of chewing sand later ... he thought he was ready ... imagine that ...
I do remember some of the things that you're talking about though ... the gas lines resulting from the Arab Oil Embargo ... which is quite likely to happen again ... the CAFE standards ... that automakers quickly cicumvented by turning away from station wagons to SUVs so that they could be classified as "trucks" and thereby exempted from the standards ... etc ...
Right now Americans are complaining about the cost of oil .... they can't even conceive of the notion that they won't be able to buy enough of it ... at any price ...
You are quite correct ... The US has made it's bed through it's own shortsightedness ... and must now lay in it .... this applies to oil, debt, Social Security, loss of manufacturing, etc ...
By the way, the next time you speak to your son ... tell him I said "Thanks !" ....
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Registered User Joined: 10/7/2004 Posts: 2,126
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Reality I am afraid that if the US ever try to tap into the Oil reserves of Iraq by the use of force that would very negatively impact the US in every aspect economic and political, as well as globe social relations.
And remember every relation that the US takes down, China will revive for their own interest. Venezuela is keeping a close eye on US, and Chavez is crazy enought and hates US with all his guts - I am positive he would shut down supply making in that way oil price to sky rocket. He has in fact already said that if the US ever tough IRAN that which I said would just happen. Things can get a lot uglier than they are currently.
For one thing the world as a whole would confirm what everybody else in this globe thought - that the Iraq preemptive attack was just about oil, and nothing else - the rest were excuses to get there fast.
Second, I can assure you that every drop of that oil would equal to 10 drops of blood - the resistant there will rather burned all down that let the US take it - I think that was in the recent past.
I think the US needs to start getting on line.
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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I don't recall saying anything about the US taking oil by force ...
The US prescence accomplishes things like ... having Iran blockade the Strait of Hormz ... having Iraqs reserves ruined by poor oil filed management techniques ... like many of the Saudi Arabian oil fields have been ... having those reserves fall under the control of a hostile government ... preventing further threats to Kuwait ....etc ...
I believe that what we are seeing is a global positoning for the "end of oil" ... with all the major oil consuming countries running around like a bunch of dogs marking their territory by peeing on trees and fire hydrants ...
The US has peed on Iraq and Kuwait ... Russia and China have peed on Iran ... Russia has peed on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean ... etc ...
Exactly which line is it that you think that the US needs to get on ?
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Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
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Hey Apsll,
Before I begin dishing out my opinion (which is getting more eccentric by the nano-second!) I'd just like to say thanks for your detailed, well thought out posts. I enjoy your analysis more and more and find an emotional restraint and objective viewpoint that has no doubt been partly responsible for your success up to this point. I have no doubt that it is that type of level headedness and patience than can and will succeede in any market environment.
With that in mind, i must remind you that i am a system trader. When my system calls a pick I take it. I don't look at the market. Don't question the environment. Don't worry about news or earnings or anything that can stress me out and take my mind off managing my trade. When the market isn't good I don't get any picks. When it's great I get too many. Right now I have none. And I have two systems. 1 continuation system. 1 reversal system. Each system has different stages to it as well. Sort of like a radar. When the up trend was in full effect I had over forty stocks in stage 2 uptrends waiting for a pullback for a stage 3 entry (these are just my terms -- Stage one (uptrend) stage 2 (pullback) stage 3 (entry).
So having over 40 in that list was good news. Today there are 6 stage ones. In the stage one (trending) stage for reversals there are 59. With 1 at stage 2 (potential reversal) and 0 at entry. To give you an idea of what that number means, during the uptrend there were 2 in stage one downtrends.
Anyway, even after all of that I love to to look at markets and throw out my opinions. And we all know how the saying regarding opinions and excuses...
Oh, and my appologies ahead of time to Alexandria. There's are all jpegs - I completely forgot!
First, I thought I'd took a look at the donchian channels. Yep, downtrend.
Then I saw what everyone else has been saying. Double top. Yep. It's there.
Then the Fibonacci retracement from the August lows to the November highs. Looks like it's on the brink of disaster there, too. Though it hasn't completely crashed through yet.
From here I revisted an earlier post regarding the Naz and the fib fan studies I drew which have clearly been compromised. Thusly:
Not good. Next I added the up fan from the august lows and together we get an idea of a Fibonacci target.
Interesting.
But as I was looking at all of these charts, something was clobbering me over the head. And that is a couple divergences. One is with my RSI indicator, and the other is with the volume action. Like this:
Not to mention that we are resting on one of the key recent support levels.
With RSI at reversal levels. Which leads me to believe that this double top may be part of a larger, head and shoulders top formation.
I don't think that's too far fetched. We have the left shoulder and we have the head. All that's needed is a failed bounce to the 2700 area and we're there.
And finally, my thoughts about the bigger picture. Down. And then up. :) Of course I am only half joking. Here's the Worden T2107 indicator which is the number of stocks above their 200 day ma. Every 4 or so years there's a significant bottom (as scott has been saying)...and we haven't quite gotten there yet (in my opinion)
Anyway...just my thoughts. Thanks for asking!
David John Hall
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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Great observations David ...
One other thing that I noticed ...
On Apsll's chart of the rising wedge in the COMPQX ....
If those trendlines are drawn on a line chart ... rather than candlestick ... or bar chart ... you'll notice that we are now sitting right on the lower trendline ...
Which would normally suport the opportunity for a small reversal before breaking through ...
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Registered User Joined: 10/7/2004 Posts: 319
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I have a lot of Venezuelans living around me here in south FL. In fact, the South Americans and Europeans are about the only ones buying homes here. The Venezuelans have nothing good to say about Chavez and what he has done to their country. Much like Castro and what he did to Cuba.
We currently import a great deal of oil from Venezuela (Citgo service stations). If the oil from there stops, the gas lines will return, no doubt about it. Yet people continue to buy Hummers and such. Go figure.
Concerning Iran, President Ahmadinejad is a huge threat to world peace. He thinks and speaks much like Adolf Hitler did……..but Hitler failed to obtain nuclear weapons primarily because of our military and the will of the American people to defeat him. Should Amadinajad acquire nuclear weapons, odds are he will nuke Israel and he clearly will take over the entire middle east…….with all its oil. Pretty scary thought isn’t it?
So what should America do? Hopefully diplomacy can make some headway here, but that just isn’t what history teaches us is the probable outcome when dealing with fanatics. This issue will probably not come to a head during the next year, but rather will be a primary issue for the next administration.
China is another matter altogether. Many of you may not be aware of their growing military force. They now have far more fighter jets, subs, destroyers etc than do we. Someone on this thread mentioned Taiwan. Yep, that too will be a major issue for the next administration because China is hell bent on taking over Taiwan. Another topic is the oil fields in Russia, just north of China. When China becomes a greater fossil fuel guzzler than she is now, have you given any thought to the possibility of her military actions into Russia? The US may end up becoming an ally of Russia in such an event. My sources tell me 2009-2011 will most likely be the most critical point in our history. Perhaps that time line links up somehow with what Scott was telling us he read in the Williams book.
I pray that we elect the very best candidate to become our next President. We need someone who has the communication skills, common sense and positive attitude of Ronald Regan. No matter how much the far-left media liked to bad-mouth him, he gave our country back hope. Something that Presidents Johnson, Nixon and Carter had totally destroyed during those turbulent years of the 60’s and 70’s.
The American people will rise up to any occasion. They always have and they always will. Just as the markets always turn back up after these temporary pullbacks.
I know one thing for certain, it feels damn good to be alive and living in America.
Have a terrific Thanksgiving everyone.
survivor
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Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
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Thanks Reality, I see that as well. Do you hvae any thoughts on closing prices vs. highs and lows?
I seem to have better success with patterns drawn on line charts. They seem more concrete and not as noisy. I also think there's less room for manipulation. It closes where it closes. Emotions can push price high or low without reason but it all seems to settle by the close (usually). Just wondering if you think there's anything to be said for one vs. the another other than personal preference. Thanks for all of your great input as well. You have definitely made me think on more than one occasion. Happy Turkey day!
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Registered User Joined: 12/7/2004 Posts: 393
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Survivor,I'm with you 100%.
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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I agree with you on line charts David ...
Although I probably spend the bulk of my time looking at candlesticks ...
Line charts seem to offer the best overall picture of interaction with moving averages, etc ... at least to me ...
As you indicated, there are a variety of different reasons for "slippage" .... and if you don't discount it ... it definitely muddies the waters ...
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Registered User Joined: 12/7/2004 Posts: 393
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Reality, interesting concept about the dogs marking their territory.
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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Thanks to Colin Twiggs for pointing out this link ....
http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/3249
If the info is correct ... all of this "marked to model" crap is going to come to a head when financial institutions start reporting earnings in January ....
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Registered User Joined: 9/25/2007 Posts: 1,506
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Although it seems that the financial institutions are doing their best to lobby for a delay in the implementation .... imagine that ?
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/54377-fasb-157-delayed-or-not
Everyone wants to put off "judgement day" as long as they can ...
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Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
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guys.. it's thanks giving ! ! Oh hell i'm here too. Hope you all had a good thanks giving.
"Now then ... how long until the regular guy has one ?" - - - - I dunno but it's sweet.. Maybee i'll treat myself with next years trading proffits . so cynical... Look at what it represents. It acutally out performs the EV1 and looks a hell of allot cooler. I think the main thing with the EV1 is that the auto companeis didn't want to sell it.... at every stage they faught it, made it ugly, etc etc. But they were forced to make them for that small test market. The thing was those were the known companies. specalizing in the combustion engines. This looks like a new company that hopefully will specalize in this. i think it's exciting. Yea I won't be buying one for a while (crap!) but I would if I could... and that is where it starts. Do you own a DVD player reality check? ? My roomate got one of the first DVD players available. it was swet. Had features that they don't have now. BUT what they do have now is a good price and mass apeal. this car I bet dosent cost that much to produce.. but it's a "luxury/novelty item" and consumers, particularily the groupe that has to have the hottest newest gadget , can afford this sort of excentricity..... and they get squeezed ... then the next consumer group is in the cross hairs.... You and I. Some design changes are made.. maybee a few luxury features dropped and it's set for mass production. I see this and think that Tesla motors may be a name we are hearing allot more of inthe future... my 5 months old daughter may drive an electric car to college. I think it's cool. Look how many american car manufactures have come and gone...What happened to Hudson, those were cool cars. Especially the truck.. a neighbor has one restored. I'm just saying .. things change. Also huge advancements have and are being made in batteries, in fuelcells ... many of which are yet to be incorporated into a complete product.
"For one thing the world as a whole would confirm what everybody else in this globe thought - that the Iraq preemptive attack was just about oil, and nothing else - the rest were excuses to get there fast." ---- Uhhh ? ? Welll.. ok. If actions speak louder than words... What was the action of our military after we had taken away power, running water, comunication from Iraq. We care so much about the poor Iraqi people under the thumb of their dictator, because we hate dictators(those that have things we want any way... other dictators are ok.. even now well deal with dictators), that we didn't imediately set up and repair the hospitals, get the water running agian, and bring in medicines . Nope we secured the oil fields. And then things began to fall apart. if we ar nto there for oil.. what are we there for? WMD's ? right. BUT strategically it's a great way for us to bleed our selves. I wonder sometimes if Washington didn't fall for a bait and get drug by their lips into this. Any of you guys ever play simple games llike "Age of Empires"... I love those games... and they teacha simple lesson. War is about money and recources and the way to beat the computer.. who seems to alwasye get the jump on you in terms of tech advancement...is to make your enemy expend his recources... then go on the attack. I could fill pages and bore and or infuraite some of you with this and that book including conversations with my father in law, a retired full colonel in the soviet military.
Allies with Russia, it wouldn't be the first time ... and comunism and Putin aside they are a great people.. IMO worht fighting with. Thought curently nearly drained by Chechnia and their recent economic colapses... they aren't going o be able to put up a real fight to anyone for a long time.
Survivor: I admire patriots.. and am generaly one. My wife and I would rather live nowhere else, (well I wouldn't mind western Europe) despite my cynical views of the flaws in our government... they exist everywhere. However it saddens me in a way to hear statements that lead to the idea that the USA won the war against Hitler single handedly. The fact is we were the last in ... and we weren't the only combatants, and in terms of lives lost in the cause we can't compare to some of the other nations. I think the biggest culprit to spreading this idea is politics of the time. Most accedimic historians will agree that Germany's back had been broken when we entered the western front.
David John Hall.. nice charts and explinations..Oh .. I take no credit for the 4 year cycle thing.. Just bringing up what I have read by other people.
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Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
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Oh one last thing...Let China build up it's military.. encourage it. Do it as long as possible with out actually provoking a fight and it'll work to our advantage. USSR? ? there are dozzens of other examples in history. Paul Kenedys book "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" was a fascinating read. Any military history buffs should read it... though it deals mostly with economics it's an important aspect. Also Leo M. Gumilev did work in that field.. "Ethnogenissis in the Biosphere" I think was one of his. He spent much of his life in Gulags for projecting the fall of the soviet union shortly after it's inception based on their economic model. "Ethnogenisis" was not that work. But it unfolded much as he projected.
I think the age of physical invasions of other nations is largely past. Do we honestly expect to see Chinese tanks rolling down Walstreet? ? ? Never happen...... or won't last any way.. for the same reason We probably wont affect much in IRAQ (with out serious change in tactics), and for the same reasons the Romans couldn't hold Judea indefinately. We'll become "terrorists" (but we'll call our selves freedom fighters) or at least I would, and I know millions of others would as well. They won't be able to poke their heads out of a tank for a glimpse of the new conquest with out every crack shot deer hunter making a spot on his wall for the new trophy. I would imagine food, water and supply poisioning, sabotage and GOD knows what else would be a major issue. A stroll down the street would be asking for anything for a stabbing from a faceless member fo the passing crowd to the deer hunter turned sniper. Just not logisticaly probable.
We may slap each other around on some middle ground and try to send the other packing with his tail between his legs.... I guess more local borders might be redrawn. Actually Russia has a problem with Chineese squaters on northern territory now. Eventually it'll come down to what to do with those people and whose territory it is... Or Russia may just try to sell it.
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Registered User Joined: 10/7/2004 Posts: 319
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Hey Scott, I clearly did not mean to imply that America won WWII all by ourselves. I apologize to you if you took my comments that way.
I love the Russians and I really do believe we will be allies rather than "enemies". We have much more in common than some realize.
My family immigrated here from Switzerland, so I do appreciate Western Europe. Perhaps you also know that virtually all able-bodied Swiss men are required to serve in the military. Our family has carried that tradition to America by serving in the U.S. military, the Peace Corps, AmeriCorps*VISTA, and medical missions to less fortunate countries.
Land invasion of the U.S., yea, pretty unlikely. But skirmishes at sea are not unlikely.
It's a brave new world out there to be sure. The bottom line is how does all this change affect world markets and how we trade / invest. That's one reason why I value this Worden web site, it's a terrific place to share ideas with the hope of making ourselves better at differentiating reality from fiction.
Have a great weekend guys.
survivor
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Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
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Wars are fought over the coveting of Territory, Resources (Wealth) or Power. Scott is right the civilized nations need not fight for teritory (no chinese tanks will roll on the streets of Washington DC. Power is very fleeting and to difficult to maintain. So for now we race of men must endure the struggle to controll the great resources that still fuel the engines of industry and yes War.
I just wanted to shed some light on this new and changing landscape of the Markets that we all meet here to share our strategy on how best to trade. I am seeing things that I have not yet seen and was hoping that some of the wiser of us could help to brighten the dimness that narrows my current view.
Thanks to every one of you. Your varied input and insights have made clear that none have the answers and we will all have to tread this new ground together. Lets hope that we are just witness to the growing pains of a changing national economy to the now global one..
Good luck to us all.
Apsll.
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Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
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There seems to be some really "dumb" (sorry guys) analysis here
which revolves around the same few themes:
1. George bush invented war. Never happened before and never will
happen again after he is gone.
2. War is only about profit and oil.
3. We are in economic Armageddon.
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1. Roosevelt:
World war 2
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Truman
World war 2
Atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima, Nagasaki.
Korean war
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Kennedy
Vietnam
Bay of Pigs
Cuban missile crisis
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Johnson
Vietnam
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Carter
The killing fields
The Iran hostage crisis
The failed rescue attempt
Higher oil prices than today (adjusted for inflation)
Stagflation
Odd/even gas lines
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Clinton
The first world trade center attack.
(the only difference. it didn't go down)
The war is Kosevo
The US embassy attacks
The Khobar Tower bombings
Somalia, Mogadishu
The attack on the USS Cole
The idea that the world will love us and problems "disappear"
under a different administration is very naive.
I would also add my farther was a merchant seaman and traveled
the world extensively. The "rest of the world" has hated America
for many decades.
(at least that's what the media calls it. I call it jealously)
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2.
The simple fact is those that want to kill us
(and many others) are sitting on the worlds oil
supply. (or at least a large part of it)
If we want oil. Why don't we have it?
We are so blood thirsty for oil yet we are not even
drilling all of our own?
Certainly we can take Iraq's oil by force.
(this is ours now)
Certainly Carter had the excuse to take Iran's
oil.
(again this is ours now)
Why did we build up the countries we bombed during
the Marshall plan?
Certainly there would have been more $$$$$$$ to let them
die on the vine.
Since an elected government is a reflection of its people.
I would imagine if you were in a bank and a robber walked in
and took all the people in the bank hostage. If two hours later
you were freed. Your joy and happiness would be related to
the fact that you could go to work on Monday.
There is no love. There is no family. There is no freedom.
There is no good it is all simply about the cash register.
The US gives away billions upon billions of foreign aid
simply for profit?
The is no charitable giving in this country at all. It is
all about the cash register.
When one looks at the staggering amount of force the
US could project into a battle field.
(if its intent was what you claim) Why hasn't it done so?
I'm sorry but the arguments you guys are making just don't
make any sense.
America has been dragged kicking and screaming into
most of its military conflicts. It has typically used only
a small portion of its force.
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3.
Does anyone believe the chart posted by Apsll is a
bear market? Economic Armageddon? I see a rising
trend for a number of years?
Is this how spoiled we have become? There can be
no economic downturn? Cycles have been eliminated?
The market goes up forever?
We never have to feel any pain. Never have to tighten our
belts. You just live in a world where we buy a new house
and new car every few years and live in blissful happiness.
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The way I look at it. If there is a "threat" to America.
If has nothing to do with oil, the dollar, the fed, economics.
It has to do with considering your country the evil of the
world. When the real evil stares you in the face everyday.
It is about the seeming unwillingness to fight evil because
it is tuff.
It has to do with the selfishness of only being concerned
at any cost with my party, my job, my house and my car.
Thanks
diceman
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
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Nice, Diceman:
President Bush may (or may not) have made mistakes. I feel his biggest mistake was believing that this America is the America his father grew up in. It is not. After Pearl Harbor, Americans flocked to the banner.
After 9/11, they flocked to the banner, untill they realized they would actually have to do something.
I hear about the "War or Terror", the war on this, the war on that.
America is NOT at war.
The Military is at war.
Mammon
America is at the mall.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
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Nice, Diceman:
President Bush may (or may not) have made mistakes. I feel his biggest mistake was believing that this America is the America his father grew up in. It is not. After Pearl Harbor, Americans flocked to the banner.
After 9/11, they flocked to the banner, untill they realized they would actually have to do something.
I hear about the "War or Terror", the war on this, the war on that.
America is NOT at war.
The Military is at war.
America is at the mall.
Mammon
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Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
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" America is NOT at war.
The Military is at war.
America is at the mall.
Mammon"
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Excellent point Mammon.
It is amazing when one thinks of the sacrifice of previous
generations.
We have a volunteer army. Except for the families involved
it doesn't impact our population at all. Our budget deficit is
shrinking (despite our massive!! war costs according to
our experts)
While I don't want to see anyone killed. We have a casualty
rate that's the equivalent of about 30 minutes of WW2.
It should be apparent to anyone who is thinking that
this rate is because we have not been brutal.
It appears that 9/11 was not enough. Someone will have to decide
how many Americans need to die before there is a threat.
(oh yes I forgot 9/11 was a fake)
Will New York city need to be eliminated? Manhattan Island?
The east coast? The west coast?
Thanks
diceman
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