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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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do you see any plays in calls or puts that yells at you buy or sell? Looking at one in retrospect, anf would have been a put since beginning og aug looking at bop and tsv and ms. Now seems somewhat risky to go into this. Do you see others where this type of bearish or bullish pattern has started. If seen it early, could have mad quite a bunch on anf puts. well let discussion start and hopefully lets make some money. Also looking for others input of option plays based on any other criteria. Here to learn more than anything.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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hal calls since the end of july would have been nice. tsv, ms, bop look good since then and stayed good.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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aeos puts, wish would have seen this yesterday. in same segment as anf. maybe the whole industry then?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/17/2005
Posts: 57
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what pcf or scans have you seen successful in the past?
maybe test a pcf or scan historically and use a percent true indicator to verify that the conditions probably indicate a put/call situation.
is there a rate of decline for tsv or bop for puts and rate of ascension for calls???
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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QUOTE (belairgroup) what pcf or scans have you seen successful in the past?
maybe test a pcf or scan historically and use a percent true indicator to verify that the conditions probably indicate a put/call situation.
is there a rate of decline for tsv or bop for puts and rate of ascension for calls???
actually need to use tc2005 tools more effectively. no scans yet, just tsv,ms and bop.
as the rate of decline not sure.
cop might seem to be a decent call candidate still. pe is kind of low but not sure if it has any refineries in the path of Rita. any other suggestions? maybe hal, sgr?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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ctic - jan 06 2.5 calls at 1 look attractive, do you agree feom what you see in graphs, news, etc.?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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got some ctic jan 06 2.5 calls for 0.75. See potential here with any news and not paying too much for time value here. couple of weeks ago picked up some jan 07 2.5 china calls for 1.35. Seems a long enought time horizon, and considering they might spin off china.com and online gaming subsidiary, can be huge if looke at ntes. common people, share if you see anything. DW great call last night on RIMM. If gotten in, could have made a double on some Oct puts.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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swn - can you have forseen move? all i can say about the advance in it in the last week is wow!
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Registered User
Joined: 9/16/2005
Posts: 3
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QUOTE (peryoung) QUOTE (belairgroup) what pcf or scans have you seen successful in the past?
maybe test a pcf or scan historically and use a percent true indicator to verify that the conditions probably indicate a put/call situation.
is there a rate of decline for tsv or bop for puts and rate of ascension for calls??? actually need to use tc2005 tools more effectively. no scans yet, just tsv,ms and bop. as the rate of decline not sure. cop might seem to be a decent call candidate still. pe is kind of low but not sure if it has any refineries in the path of Rita. any other suggestions? maybe hal, sgr?
Conoco had few refineries in this area until they bought Phillips. They did have considerable oil and gas production that was shut down by Rita. Most of it has been restarted. Oil companies make their money from oil production. Refineries and gasoline are just a way to move the oil. That is one of the reasons it is easier to get a good position on independents than it is on majors. Believe it or not, majors just try to make little or noting on gasoline sales, and they only pass through the affect of fluctuation in the price of oil.
The comodities market evidently does not understand the layout of the Gulf of Mexico oil patch or the effect of hurricane intensity. Katrina, that missed over half of the production was a cat 4, but drove the oil futures to over $70. Rita was a cat 5 and, as predicted, cut a swath that covered the entire gulf production. What did oil futures do? They dropped to about $63/bbl when I would have expected $75  . I will never understand commodities.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2005
Posts: 17
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lxk 45.28 -15.66. bop,tsv, ms, did not look too bad. Was there anything that could have predicted this! imagine if gotten into some of these puts, 20x investment!
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