A  WISE  MAN  AVOIDS  THE PATH  ALONG  THE  CLIFF  ON  A  WINDY  DAY

Will the November 6, 2012 re-election of Barack Obama (endorsed by Supreme Court and Federal Reserve) and looming "fiscal cliff" serve as catalysts for a significant reversal downward in the stock market? 

While yet to be confirmed, we see multiple models approaching projected dates where a market turn would be expected based upon past performance.  

1)  NOV 15 marks a projected short-term turn date for the SP500 using a static numerical count model.

2)  Following yesterday's NOV 1st projection, the Bradley Model's next projected turn date is NOV 14.

3)  The SP500 simple moving averages (as of 11-1-12 close):  
                   25-daySMA = 1438       50-daySMA = 1434       200-daySMA = 1378      500-daySMA = 1336
SP500 closed 25 days ago=1433,  50 days ago=1413,   200 days ago=1308,   500 days ago=1213

4)  An SP500 intermediate-term cyclical model, typically projecting a once yearly major turn window has identified the period between AUG 25 2012 (closed @1411) and JAN 26 2013 (likely to be near 1411) as a projected important trend turn.  If you mark JAN 26 2013 on your SP500 daily chart and track the trend in the following days it should accurately identify the longer-term direction for several months to come.

5)  A longer-term 3-month interval model broke below key support in late October, and is now in a position last seen in AUG 2008 and NOV 2000.

6)  On the very long-term view, if you move to a monthly chart and plot the SP500 25-month SMA, you'll see that when price crossed below this moving average it signaled additional weakness coming.  It last warned in JAN 2008 and NOV 2000.  The SP500 25-month SMA currently sits @ 1321, approximately 100 points below where the SP500 now stands.

7)  A cyclical pattern in play for the last 15 approximate years, is projecting an important SP500 low to occur within several weeks of 12-31-14.  Currently we await confirmation that the descent as begun, and watch 1425 as the "line in the sand" which needs to hold as overhead resistance.  An SP500 target of 800 or below is the 12-31-14 projected low.

Just thinking out loud here.  If you have market models that you track, would be interested in hearing your thoughts.  If however, you don't find this interesting, please go on to the next topic.  Good luck to all.

and the presidential cycle is unfavorable as well

SEP 14 2012------42 trading days------NOV 15 Turn------40 trading days------JAN 15 2013
SEP 14 SP500 HI=1474.51

SEP 17 SP500 close = 1461.19           JAN 10 SP500 close = 1472.12
SEP 18 SP500 close = 1459.32           JAN 11 SP500 close = 1472.05
SEP 19 SP500 close = 1461.05           JAN 14 SP500 close = 1470.68
SEP 20 SP500 close = 1460.26           JAN 15 SP500 close = 1472.34
SEP 21 SP500 close = 1460.15          
SummationIndex Peaking

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1473.31


WED JAN 16 Intraday SP500;  Pavlov's Bell schedule (Eastern):

11:09     1:27     2:00     2:59     3:45    record the SP500 price at each time

"Pavlov's Bell"

Very interesting trading term or schedule.  I googled and could not find references to trading or stock market; only references to the famous Pavlov dog experiments in which Pavlov used a bell to signal the dog.

As of the JAN 24 close, the SP500 has advanced 7 consecutive trading days.  In reviewing my records, I find no consecutive string of advances or declines exceeding 7 days (I went back just over 6 years of data).  Please correct me if you know this to be wrong.

SEP 14 2012------42 trading days------NOV 15 Turn------46 trading days------JAN 24 2013
SEP 14 SP500 HI=1474.51                                                             JAN 24 SP500 HI=1502.27

SEP 17 SP500 close = 1461.19           JAN 10 SP500 close = 1472.12
SEP 18 SP500 close = 1459.32           JAN 11 SP500 close = 1472.05
SEP 19 SP500 close = 1461.05           JAN 14 SP500 close = 1470.68
SEP 20 SP500 close = 1460.26           JAN 15 SP500 close = 1472.34
SEP 21 SP500 close = 1460.15           JAN 16 SP500 close = 1472.63
SummationIndex Peaking                      SummationIndexOverbought & Peaking

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1502.27


FRI JAN 25 Intraday SP500;  Pavlov's Bell schedule (Eastern):

 9:53    10:23    10:55    12:48    1:40    2:43    3:07    (a hyper-salivation day)

At the appointed times above, draw a horizontal line representing the SP500 closing price at that minute, and watch.

We are very close now to the JAN 26 2013 (falls this weekend) projected turn date for the intermediate cycle. 

.........and finally, post-Inauguration:

A vain Emperor who cares for nothing except wearing and displaying clothes hires two swindlers who promise him the finest, best suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position. The Emperor's ministers cannot see the clothing themselves, but pretend that they can for fear of appearing unfit for their positions and the Emperor does the same. Finally the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they mime dressing him and the Emperor marches in procession before his subjects. The townsfolk play along with the pretense not wanting to appear unfit for their positions or stupid. Then a child in the crowd, too young to understand the desirability of keeping up the pretense, blurts out that the Emperor is wearing nothing at all and the cry is taken up by others. The Emperor cringes, suspecting the assertion is true, but continues the procession.

Am continuing to wait for the signal which usually always appears prior to a significant trend reversal for the SP500 daily chart.

Thought this was a good post today on ZeroHedge from Chris Martenson:

ohedge.com/news/2013-02-28/guest-post-diminishing-qe-returns-and-coming-40-correctiont

We Live In Interesting Times!

Today (3-5-2013), was once more a case of the SP500 ramping upward at the open, only to quickly exhaust itself and drift laterally the remainder of the trading day.  

Something I call the McClellan Disequilibrium Phenomenon has now appeared for the 5th time, and while that's a small sample size, we'll test William Shakespeare's quote of  "What's past is prologue."

     In 2012, 18 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 76.75 points

     In 2011, 13 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 206.38 points

     In 2011, 10 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 49.13 points

     In 2008, 8 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 166.77 points

The NYSE Advance/Decline indicates a bias to be looking to short the SP500 at WED's open for the trading session tomorrow.  The bias is anticipating the likelihood of a lower SP500 close on WED.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1543.47

Good luck to all

As of  MON's close, the SP500 had closed higher for 7 consecutive days.  The  record for consecutive closes in the same direction is 8 consecutive higher closes just back in JAN 2013.  I reviewed the SP500 records going back into 2004 for consecutive strings of higher/lower closes.

TUE (approximately noon) the SP500 is down 3 points.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1556.77 (today)

The usually reliable SP500 signal which appears prior to significant trend turns has yet to manifest itself, so we continue the waiting game.

-----------------------------------------

You may find yourself living in a foreclosed shack
You may find yourself in another part of the world
You may find yourself behind the wheel of a large gas-guzzling automobile
You may find yourself in a beautiful house with a beautiful wife
You may ask yourself, well, how did I get here?
Letting the days go by, let the system hold me down
Letting the days go by, money flowing underground
Into the blue again after the fascism's gone   
Once in a lifetime, money flowing underground
You may ask yourself, how do I work this?
You may ask yourself, where is that large automobile?
You may tell yourself, this is not my beautiful house
You may tell yourself, this is not my beautiful wife
Letting the days go by, let the system hold me down
Letting the days go by, money flowing underground
Into the blue again, after the fascism's gone
Once in a lifetime, money flowing underground
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1wg1DNHbNU
 

ALERT

It is now very late Tuesday evening, and we're reviewing a preliminary report from the signal intelligence division.

The SP500 surveillance team has reported increased "chatter" from subject's communications equipment, and is expecting an imminent strong trending move to begin as early as Wednesday 3-27-13, and likely no later than Monday 4-1-13.  Updates will attempt to identify the trend direction once the initiation signal has been issued.  We are confident the move is forthcoming, thus this heads-up alert.  Analysis indicates that presently (20% +)  of the SP500 listed stocks appear to have given commitments to this trend.  Historical profile indicates this type of trending move can last from several days to weeks.

This particular signal pattern was last observed in June 2012 and indicated an expected SP500 move upward.
While this signal is not the one referenced previously, which usually always appears prior to longer-term trend reversals, it has nonetheless proven to be a useful  tool to catch trending moves.

Lesser technical indicators are supportive of this anticipated move.

Equity markets closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.  Have a safe weekend, keep your ears open and your head up.

 

As of the close on Wednesday, no trend initiation signal generated yet, but an additional 32 stocks (of the SP500) joined the ranks of those indicating a willingness to participate in this imminent trending move.  That takes the list of stocks to nearly 30% of the SP500.  Continue to expect the signal Thursday or Monday.

SP500 Running Late For Appointment, But Vows To Not Be A No-Show

Yes, the anticipated SP500 trend turn is later than expected, but still pending.  Based on recent years patterns, I believed the trend  initiation signal would be generated by last Thursday or this Monday.  We are now matching an extension series last seen in 2008 and 2005, and will perhaps exceed those if we continue another day or two.  It's now simply a waiting game, before the trend initiation signal is generated and we're ready to ride a trend which should be worth the wait.

On the day that the trend initiation signal is generated, a direction (up or down) will be indicated for the SP500 trend to follow. In 8 of the last 10 signals, the direction indicated has proven to be accurate.
I will next post on the day the signal is generated.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1573.66 (today)

Amazing!  After taking twice the typical amount of time to generate a trend initiation signal, the SP500 has finally done it.  In this model's construct, you reach a point where you know that a trending move is preparing to launch.  Following this formation, it just becomes a waiting game to receive the trend initiation signal trigger.  This afternoon the signal was given, and the direction is upwards.  In eight of the last ten signals, the direction indicated on the day in which the trend initiation signal was generated has proven to be accurate.  Nevertheless, let the trend prove itself as to direction. 

On your SP500 daily chart, you may wish to draw a circle around today's date to serve as a reference for this anticipated trend launch.

The "Powers That Be Bernanke" are scheduled to continue their POMO ways this month on the following days: April 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 30,  then May.
 

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1573.89 (today)