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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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This is an experiment. If you don't enjoy experiments, please move on to the next post. Thank you.
The purpose of this exercise is to see if we can project the major intraday turning points for the SP500 in advance, and for this example we'll attempt the next trading day which is tomorrow 12-19-11. (Currently, it's very late on SUN evening 12-18-11 and we're playing with formulas).
The goal is to pinpoint the major intraday turns (within a couple of minutes), specifically, we'd like to identify the session's HI, LO, and perhaps a common trading level where price crosses multiple times during the session, or where a significant trending move commences. At each projected time, we will note the SP500's price by drawing a horizontal line on the intraday chart. As the trading session progresses during the day, our success or failure should be quite evident. We anticipate many adjustments will be forthcoming, and are not purporting to have discovered anything new, this is being posted as a matter of record.
For SP500 on MON DEC 19, 2011:
10:25 (all times Eastern)
12:49
2:10
2:37
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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You might spark some interest, if you post you're method on how to get to your predictions. hey maybe you'll find some people who'd like to participate and might be able to improve on your formula. But I have asked you before if you would post any formulas, but alas not to be, I guess. Until then your post is next to worthless imo. Don't take offense, I do like experimenting, and I do so myself all the time. But how do you experiment if you don't post your method?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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pthegreat: No offense was taken, I understand your point. At this time, I'm really just refining my idea. One man's worthless trash could become another's treasure. There are some users here who've indicated they don't believe in cycles, technical analysis as a predictive tool, and even that moving averages can provide useful information for the forward trend. Personally, I find that quite surprising, as this is a WORDEN forum and I supposed everyone was a Worden product user. To each his own.
With adjustments made, the following are the projections for the next day, TUE DEC 20, 2011:
Those denoted by major (M) seek to identify the session's high, low, and price attractor levels.
Those denoted by minor (m) seek to identify the session's significant intraday turning points.
9:58 M (all times Eastern)
10:25 m
11:07 m
11:54 M
12:19 m
12:48 M
1:31 m
1:48 M
2:11 m
3:59 m
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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Correction: minor projections are denoted by 
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're looking for "turning points" ? and today you expected to see not one or two, but a total of 10 turning points? I don't think I have ever seen a market turn 10 times in one trading session. You catch my drift? if you don't post your method, and describe your goals objectively, and at least post some sort of formulas, then how can we, the readers of your posts, interprete your "experiment"?
Just a FYI, look for the closes of the European markets during the day for some effect on the US markets. You see that 10:30 bar ?? Now that was a catalyst for an up continuation. Don't need any magic experiments for that. Come on dude, post some sense full stuff.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 6
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Why would you care about the minor turning points for the next day? You should be concentrating on the major direction for the next day. Do you have any technical indicators that will do that?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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From late MON evening post:
Majors seek to identify the session's high, low, and price attractor levels.
minors seek to identify the session's significant intraday turning points.
9:58 M (all times Eastern)
10:25 m
11:07 m
11:54 M
12:19 m
12:48 M
1:31 m
1:48 M
2:11 m
3:59 m
Example from TUE (above): how would you have fared if you were anticipating the session's significant intraday turning points? Buy @ 10:25, Sell @ 11:07, Buy @ 12:19, Sell @ 1:31, Buy @ 2:11, Sell @ 3:59 I'll let you look at the SP500 intraday chart and add up the total points gained.
Dude, there's probably nothing to it, it's worthless!
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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ok, let me go along with this a little more;
How do you know, for example, that at 10:25 you should buy or sell? to go long or short? you forgot to mention that . what is your definition of a "turning point" ? If you're looking for intraday highs and lows, then your formula needs a little tweaking imo.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/1/2005
Posts: 36
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For me the must significant intraday turning point occurs at the open. If opening price seems to offer upside resistence and new lows occur than by 9:45 I'm short, using opening price as my stop. The 19th would be a good example. On the other hand if the market contiues to push higher as on the 20th, I'm long the market using opening price of the 19th as my stop. As of this print I'm still long.
I'm know scalper but if I have a 50/75% return ( including trading costs) on my spy puts or calls, I"ll take the money and run intraday.
Unless Iraq, Iran or europe drops a bomb me thinks we good to go til 1285/1300. After which I'll flip the calls for some Spy Puts 12/30/11.
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