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Nice steady up move, bounce of the 200, and trendline, as it has done couple times before. TD-Sequential perfected buy setup. Rumor takeover candidate by Samsung in the $32-34 range.
Strong call option activity in Sep and Oct expirations.
first target 50 MA, then $24.30
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Took some profits, Oct 22 calls from $0.55 to $1.45 today.
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Registered User
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Excellent stock to trade. missed the recent 50MA bounce and Td-sequential buy setup. now broke through TDST-resistance to new highs since '06. If we get a short retest of the TDST-resistance might be a buying opp.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
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Im gald you went back to dark backrounds. (heh, heh)
(the white charts, I feel like I need sunglasses)
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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[QUOTE=diceman]Im gald you went back to dark backrounds. (heh, heh)
(the white charts, I feel like I need sunglasses)
heh,heh funny!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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How are you Peter?
I have checked out some of these "Demark" Threads between yourself and Ben. There is some similarities to the Larry Connors RSI 2 method. I also checked out a few of your trades in the Zanger contest that appeared to be related to this method. I looked at your TX, & CIGX trades in particular as like I stated they appear to have been bought with your charts above in mind.
My question is this. Do you trade your real portfolio using your TD sequential templates? Lastly would you know of any way to convert some of this stuff into Telechart PCF's or indicators..
Any insight or help would be appreciated....
Thanks Apsll.
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I'm waiting for the 3D version of SF, until then I'll keep experimenting with colors to get the best contrast. 
I'm doing fine ApsII, thx for asking. the TX and CIGX trades didnt go anywhere. it was at that time I just started implementing some of the DeMark stuff. I have adjusted my trading strategies considerably since then.
Eventhough I'm not from the nowadays "no patience", "instant gratification" generation (I'm 43) I have found that trading naked calls/puts are perfect for obtaining quick results.
On some other threads there were some discussions on how many indicators one should use, or not use. many argue that less is better, and that price with volume, trendlines, and maybe a MA or two is all you need. I agree, however this requires more time to eyeball charts for potential trade setups. I know some of the more experienced traders here (I didn't say older.. ) can do this at warp speeds. But I'm the lazy type, and like to crunch every bits and bytes of computer power out of this amazing SF software.
The one thing I missed in SF was the capability of using conditions based on trendlines. And again, since eyeballing and drawing trendlines takes time, I got very excited when I figured out a way to have SF automatically draw the TDST-support and resistance lines. I don't solely trade on the TD-sequential setup and countdowns. I think they are a very good point to start looking for a trade. as you see in the OVTI chart I use a couple of "conventional" indicators. when they all line up, and price seems to want to bounce of either a TDST line and/or MA, is where I take the trade.
here an example of a possible OVTI trade. I missed this one, and still kicking myself.
11-18-10
9:32AM
2min chart. OVTI breaks out over TDST-resistance, Bband green, Tema 5 above 34, DPO green, large volume.
9:40 AM
10min chart
Price breakout over TDST resistance, Bband green, Tema crossover, DPO green
10:00 AM
30min chart
same story
I think it's save to say that at 10 AM this is a high probability trade. as another extra confirmation you can see above in my 4hr chart, on 11-18 12PM, that although price was still below its resistance line, Bbands turned green, Tema crossover, DPO green, and bounce of the 50.
Although my Thinkorswim charts are down at the moment. a trade in the November calls would have likely resulted in 100% profit or so from 11-18 10 AM till today.
I haven't seen much DeMark development for TC. I think there were one or two attempts in getting the TD-sequential buy/sell setups. but for what I remember they were not complete.
For me, the value is in the support/resistance lines, and the ability to code conditions based on that.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Thank you Peter for your help. I too have SF but I am too lazy to really get my hands dirty to take it apart and then back together. I am stuck in my old fashioned ways with Telechart....
If you have the time could you please do an analysis of APWR? I have been burned twice by this one and in both cases I did not adhere to my own set rules. On the RSI 2 APWR is really over-sold. Are you getting a buy signal on the "TD-Sequential?
Again thanks for your time...
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Based on my work APWR is worth a buy above $6.10 (with a target of $7.02) daily.
The problem is a downtrend can stay oversold.
The weekly is also pretty much oversold
Oversold at $5.90 wth a target of $8.65.
Thanks
diceman
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daily:
we had two Demark buy signals, on 7/1 a TD-sequential buy setup, which was followed by a TD-sequential countdown completion on 8/30. That would have beeen a good entry, since it also bounced of the declining trendline (purple line). TD-sequential sell setup finished on 10/1. since then no more sell or buy signals. it has fallen through the TDST-support two bars ago at $6.30.
I wouldn't consider APWR until the TD-sequential buy setup finishes (currently at count 7) and price climbs above the support line at $6.30.
The weekly graph shows a TDST-support at $3.71. all the way back to 2009.
to risky for me at this point.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Thanks Diceman & Peter:
One might ask why I am obssesed with this chart and the reasons are "Bonanza Bottom". Remember that one Diceman? Take RVBD and scroll back to 2008 on "zoom=3" so that you can see January 2008 to November 2008. To me these two bottoms if you compare them side by side are very similar.
Things looked pretty bad for RVBD in November 2008 after declining from $23 down to $3.00
Looking back on my entry into APWR I can now see my folly but at the time of my initial analysis I was looking at different attributes. Also I did some {very little} fundimentls and I liked what I saw. On "Yahoo Finance" the analyst's were rating it a strong buy. They have low debt to equity ratio, this added to the growing "China" economy gave me some confidence that APWR was putting in a solid foundation. {could still happen}.
Again thanks for the help on this one guys. I am going to keep trading this one for sport..LOL
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pthegreat
Did you draw the purple line on your November 20, 2010 12:44:08 PM chart,
or is that automated ?
Thanks
diceman
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That's mine.
I doubt there's a way to have SF draw trendlines. wish there was.
so for now, have to live with the TDST support/resistance lines.
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QUOTE (Apsll) Thanks Diceman & Peter:
One might ask why I am obssesed with this chart and the reasons are "Bonanza Bottom". Remember that one Diceman?
Ouch! down 25%, Bonanza bottom just got a lot better.
Thanks
diceman
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follow up on APWR:
looking at a daily back to July 09, head and shoulders pattern. Fib retracement from the Dec highs to the drop lows at 2/5/10. shows a 161% retracement at ..... exactley what its been trading at the past 7 bars !!!! how's that for you Fib non-believers.
TD-sequential perfected buy signal on 12/1/10. bounce today of that level. potential J-hook?
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OVTI by the way;.. what a monster!! Cramer climbed on board as well.
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QUOTE (pthegreat) how's that for you Fib non-believers.
Ok pthegreat, its time to reveal one of the great, great, secrets of trade:
Dicemannacci levels.
This is a method of trade passed down from dicemans ancestors.
(who were rice traders some 800 years ago)
Try not to let this cat out of the bag.
(folks have paid thousands for my DVD,CD, Book collections)
When Darvas saw this he was tempted to write:
"How I made a gajillion dollars trading Dicemannacci" or "Diceman The Other Las Vegas".
Dicemannacci takes the high and subjects it to 4% declining increments:
Dicemannacci level 1: H*.96
Dicemannacci level 2: H*.92
Dicemannacci level 3: H*.88
Dicemannacci level 4: H*.84
(and so on)
On APWR the high was 21.04 on 12/22/09.
In order to save on typing I will refer to Dicemannacci levels as DML's
Notice the initial sell-off finds support at DML4, $17.67 (H*.84) in late December 2009.
The first signs of trouble are the failed 1 bar tests on 1/06/10 and 1/20/10
Notice price breaks up through DML1 $20.19 (H*.96) and DML4 $17.67 (H*.84) but fails to hold by the close.
The main sell-off finds support at DML12 $10.94 (H*.52) by 2/05/10.
Then prices rally to consolidate at DML9 $13.46 (H*.64).
Notice that after if falls through those support levels there's another tight consolidation in late April 2010
at the levels of DML12 $10.94 (H*.52) and DML13 $10.09 (H*.48).
After that breakdown in falls into the lower levels of DML17 $6.73 (H*.32)
DML17 $6.73 (H*.32) was tested as support 5/21/10, 6/04/10, 7/01/10 and resistance 9/9/10, 9/14/10.
DML15 $8.41 (H*.40) was tested as resistance 5/27/10, 7/26/10, 8/09/10, 9/30/10 and support 6/14/10.
After brief tests of DML18 $5.89 (H*.28) in late august 2010 and 11/23/2010 the final breakdown occurs
to DML19 $5.04 (H*.24)
As hohandy has exclaimed here many times: Woof!
By the way as a side note, Dicemans ancestors knew Fibonacci and didn't like him.
He was an incessant bore with his ,"2","3","5","8" over and over and over again.
(that's why they chose 4%, its not a fibonacci number)
Thanks
diceman
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Hey Diceman, that was one heck of a post...Dicemannacci, okay:) not exactly sure how to take it but a very interesting post for sure.
Anyway, I toggled the APWR chart back to late Dec and early Jan. and I'm not thinking Fibs or Dicemannci; I'm thinking retracements to common moving avereges. And all I see is a classic pullback and successful test of the 20-day sma with a pocket pivot signal on Jan. 5. The rest is history:) Seriously, I trade and key off of those averages a good bit. Moral of story I guess is to use whatever floats your boat, need to have a method and rules...but to always believe what you see and not what you think when price goes against the trade.
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Dicemannaci, LOL. great post !
You better be sure this is the greatest thing since sliced bread, gonna put those DML's in realcode and backtest it. If I don't get a 100% winning % you're toast!!!
I think we all get the point what works for A, doesn't necessarily work for B.
I'm trading SPY on 5 min chart with TD-Sequential buy setup condition, with one or two other indicators, getting close to 80% winning %. while on other stocks I don't even get close to 50%.
Discipline, depends on your personaility
money management, can be taught, but in my case only acquired through trading exposure and experience.
open mind, still looking for the grail, but hey Dicemannaci might just be it. haha
good luck all.
OVTI getting closeto all time highs.
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QUOTE (fpetry) not exactly sure how to take it but a very interesting post for sure.
Well, I was trying to illustrate that once lines are drawn on a chart, it typically will fit a story.
Its actually difficult to make lines drawn on a chart wrong.
Since I made-up my indicator five minutes before the post, I didn't know what the numbers
would be, but many of them "fit" the chart. Once I had the numbers it fit into nice narrative. (if you put aside the joking)
Earlier this year (on another site) davidjohnhall and I did a real-time stock picking demonstration.
To "challenge" money management skills, we also decided we would pick a stock with a random
number generator and decide randomly long or short.
One of the stocks I got was CTAS Long. I bought in Feb 2010 at $24.37 (I had a rule that I would buy/short random stocks at the open)
I used a Guppy Countback line as a stop. This got me out at $27.97 in late March 2010.
If I had sent you that trade in a newsletter, you would say "Nice call diceman", "This diceman knows what he's doing".
However the truth is: a random number picked the stock, a random number picked long, and a simple
system got me out.
I think when we have success trading we have to question why it happened.
I think a lot of it is natural and falls under the category of common sense.
Unfortunately, I think a lot of traders think its them or "their secret".
As a funny side note if you look at CTAS today in sold off to another bottom
where my entry would have been good on about 7/7/10.
Then met resistance at my sell point on 9/21/10.
The lines always work. I didn't know it but I was predicting the future.
Thanks
diceman
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Understandably your Money Managment skill have to be good enough to be able to be profitable in a 50/50 situation. Would have loved to see your stock picking demo. I assume you don't pick stocks by a flip of a coin. Just out of curiosity what do you use to increase the probability?
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QUOTE (pthegreat) Just out of curiosity what do you use to increase the probability?
Lately its been about me.
I've always been a fan of the IBD type stock.
In 2009, 2010 its been about learning to buy weakness, learning to
buy lower priced stocks.
(like the 9-1-10 DGIT "J-hook" stock, there was a time when I would
have never bought weakness)
(in the davdjohnhall demo the first stock I bought was BIDU in 2-10,
that was more my style, buy something strong and hold on to it
as long as it is strong)
I think too many traders start their analysis with "cant".
Thanks
diceman
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yup me to, always keep a watchlist of the IBD100. looking for strong upmovers, and try to catch a pullback.
have a look at IGTE, on the IBD list. what does Dicemannaci say of this one?
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QUOTE (pthegreat)
have a look at IGTE, on the IBD list. what does Dicemannaci say of this one?
(heh, heh)
I was updating pull-back strategies this week-end and didn't realize I had left it on.
When I entered the symbol IGTE it gave a buy on 12-09-10 at about $18.91.
One of the things I realized about this stuff is waiting for conformations can cost
a lot of money.
I find it better to jump in with both feet.
If your wrong it just hits a stop, the ones that are right will more
than make up for it.
Like DGIT on 9-1 there's not a whole lot to tell you its done falling.
With experience and testing you have to trust the coiled spring will
expand.
I would rather be "on my way" than agonizing if its a buy now.
That's why I said:
"Lately its been about me."
Getting rid of my biases and freeing my mind to do what's right.
(A while back I would have never bought something like this)
As far as DML's it held DML7 $17.99 so you could have bought
a break above DML6 $18.99 on 12-09-10.
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 12/2/2004
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Purely as exercise in playing Devil's Advocate, my IBD take on IGTE .
IGTE has several big red flags imo, at least on current technical basis. FWIW, IBD 100 list is purely computer generated and often times significant number of its stocks are in overextended late stage bases and/or short candidates, as William O'Neil himself has stated. IGTE in particular is heavily shorted, increasing steadily right up to late November, makes me wonder if the recent bounce off 18.36 was good bit of short covering? This pullback off its highs is IBD textbook opposite of type of pullback you want to see. The big red flag of course is the massive high volume plunge 11/30. If it can hold above the 50-day (IBD method places significance on a stock's ability to find support there) maybe it'll regroup quickly, but another close below that average any time soon would be another red flag as IGTE has found excellent support there past 8 or 9 months, ema and sma.
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OVTI upgraded.
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