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There it is...everything about the formation is perfect. Volume profile is spot on, right shoulder lower than left. Be careful out there folks.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see a small reaction bounce off of the neckline ...
Nothing to write home about ... but maybe lasting a couple of days ...
That would set us up for drawdown back to the neckline on Thursday ...
And the jobs numbers coming out before the bell on Friday ...
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by by neckline. although good confirmation probably requires a weekly bar.
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QUOTE (funnymony) by by neckline. although good confirmation probably requires a weekly bar.
Yeah ... but ...
The Dow and the S&P patterns are not quite in sync ... and though the Dow is a much narrower index ... a lot of folks use it for setting triggers ...
And an argument could be made that the Dow just reached that neckline today ...
Seems to me that markets just hate to "trickle" through major support & resistance levels ... more often than not it seems ... they like to gap through them ... generally at the open ... which makes me tend to believe that it may just need a bit more time in the oven ...
But hey ... time will tell ....
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in the neck,,, that hurts
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QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (funnymony) by by neckline. although good confirmation probably requires a weekly bar.
Yeah ... but ...
The Dow and the S&P patterns are not quite in sync ... and though the Dow is a much narrower index ... a lot of folks use it for setting triggers ...
And an argument could be made that the Dow just reached that neckline today ...
Seems to me that markets just hate to "trickle" through major support & resistance levels ... more often than not it seems ... they like to gap through them ... generally at the open ... which makes me tend to believe that it may just need a bit more time in the oven ...
But hey ... time will tell ....
hey, you can make an argument for anything...but the SPX, the NASDAQ, and the broadest index of all, the Wilshire 5000 has broken the neckline. The dow is only 30 stocks, on a price-weighted basis. I see head and shoulder patterns everywhere on individual stocks. I see waning volume on the rallies and surging volume on the drops. I see the 200 sma has been broken, and the market is trending below all major moving averages.
Put simply, the short, intermediate, and long term trends have turned downward. The path of least resistence is down, until proven otherwise.
That being said, unless the worse-case unfolds with the economy, stocks are getting very cheap, which eventually sets us up for another monster rally once this thing runs it's course.
I predict this happens once it becomes clear that the Repulicans are going to sweep Congress in November, and restore some sanity to government.
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Ben: Sanity to government? Isn't that like military intelligence? Granted what or who is in there now really sucks, and it sure can't get much worse, at least we hope not. When my old man was still living, he always said the best thing that could happen to this country, was for California and Washington, DC to both fall into the oceans. Then we might have a chance.
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QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (funnymony) by by neckline. although good confirmation probably requires a weekly bar.
Yeah ... but ...
The Dow and the S&P patterns are not quite in sync ... and though the Dow is a much narrower index ... a lot of folks use it for setting triggers ...
And an argument could be made that the Dow just reached that neckline today ...
Seems to me that markets just hate to "trickle" through major support & resistance levels ... more often than not it seems ... they like to gap through them ... generally at the open ... which makes me tend to believe that it may just need a bit more time in the oven ...
But hey ... time will tell ....
i would say the nasdaq and sp-500 are the most watched, although i think you correct, the sp-500 is leading to the downside.
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QUOTE (johnlc) Ben: Sanity to government? Isn't that like military intelligence? Granted what or who is in there now really sucks, and it sure can't get much worse, at least we hope not. When my old man was still living, he always said the best thing that could happen to this country, was for California and Washington, DC to both fall into the oceans. Then we might have a chance.
Gridlock = sanity. Right now there are no checks & balances, the Democrats are just pushing through their wildest pipe dreams and Obama is destroying investment in the US by disrespecting the rule of law.
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Does the first chart blow look familiar?
Yes The DOW 1975. Head & Shoulders.
Mind you I have no bias one way or the other. Just some food for thought.
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QUOTE (johnlc) Ben: Sanity to government? Isn't that like military intelligence? Granted what or who is in there now really sucks, and it sure can't get much worse, at least we hope not. When my old man was still living, he always said the best thing that could happen to this country, was for California and Washington, DC to both fall into the oceans. Then we might have a chance.
The quicker that we get to the end ... the quicker that we can start over ...
Today's Republican party seems like they'll take us to the same place ... albeit at a slower pace ...
I'd just as soon get it over with as fast as possible ...
Wasn't it Thomas Paine who said .. "If there is to be trouble ... then let it be in my day ... so that my children may have peace" ?
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beware, cnbc came to the conclusion the "death cross" (50ma crossing down through 200ma) is a bullish sign.
lol
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QUOTE (funnymony) beware, cnbc came to the conclusion the "death cross" (50ma crossing down through 200ma) is a bullish sign.
lol
Why of course ...
The animal orchestra says so ....
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I don't know who posted it, but it was on Ask a Trainer, several years ago.
Bullish Phase 50 Simple Moving Avg. > 200 Simple moving avg. Plus
Price close > 50 & 200 SMA
Accumulation 50 SMA < 200 SMA Plus
Price close > 50 & 200 SMA
Recovery 50 SMA < 200 SMA Plus
Price close > 50 SMA
" " < 200 SMA
Warning 50 SMA > 200 SMA Plus
Price close < 50 SMA
" " > 200 SMA
Distribution 50 SMA > 200 SMA Plus
Price close < 50 & 200 SMA
Bearish 50 SMA < 200 SMA Plus
Price close < 50 & 200 SMA
Complete Cycle: Bearish moves to Recovery
Bullish moves to Warning
You mean that cnbc isn't always right on? Devastating!
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Add a note: I went back to try to find that post, as usual my bookkeeping dates aren't always accurate. But it's really interesting to see all the different posters back then compared to now.
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QUOTE (johnlc) Add a note: I went back to try to find that post, as usual my bookkeeping dates aren't always accurate. But it's really interesting to see all the different posters back then compared to now.
john, you got me thinking about those days. You are correct that there were different posters back in July of 2007. Bellow is the origin of the post and below that a glimpse into a much better time. I noticed after checking out a few pages that you were not posting back then. "Curious"... I remember also the there were no polical threads and no one was responding to Bigblock... Now I am feeling a bit nostalgic, thanks for reminding me of those long ago days.
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http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=21524
Thanks
diceman
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I stand corrected, I guess that I did not dig deep enough..
Thanks Diceman.
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Apsll: Times are forever changing. You are right, I didn't post then, being new to TC. A friend suggested I try TC. Just got tired of financial advisor making excuses when portfolio went down and bragging when port, went up how good of job he was doing. OK, fine. But the excuses were what really pissed me off. Stand up on you own 2 feet and admit, hey no one can be plus all the time. OK. Not expecting super results, but just admit this is what it is. OK ,Fine, you work with this amount of my money, and I'll learn to work with this amount of my money. Was I a newbie, of course. Everyone starts some where, sometime. Am I still a newbie, of course, have I learned alot, I hope so. Do I still screw up, most defilnitly. But it's my money, hey maybe you got some of mine. I'm glad you sometimes traded long in the big depression, cause I got some of yours.
Did all the past posters, hang it up? Did they go broke? Did they move on to bigger and better services? Who knows, who cares. I'm sure that someone has the stats on traders who have crashed and burned compared to who have been profitable.
Actually I thought BB's posts were informative. But, hey, what do I know?
BTW: Celtics needed some younger legs. Better get a good draft.
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Very cordial post John.
Yes things are forever changing. I was not aware of your story from those earlier days, thank you for sharing. I too wonder what has become of some of those old posters. I speculate sometimes on their situations. The fact that they are no longer Telechart users leaves me to wonder? "Are they bankrupt" "Have they found a better way to find their charts? I wish that some of them would drop in and let us know how they are doing....
The Celtics, Red Sox, Bruins, Patriots are all currently play-off contenders but I am mostly just a Football fan. I like the whole NFL and my favorite time of the year is the fall foliage season.
I keep saying that I will keep my nose out of politics but sometimes I just feel the need to chime in. I should learn that every time I do so then I ruffle Realitychecks feathers. I do not know if I do this on purpose from time to time just to shake things up or because like I stated earlier that a couple of my personal friends talk like him and it gets on my nerves. ( I am always telling them to move to their own island). I think the RC has already done so or is planning on it soon.
Ok back to my charts.....
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QUOTE (johnlc)
Actually I thought BB's posts were informative. But, hey, what do I know?
I did too ...
Bigblock's problem wasn't with content ... but with delivery ...
I remember a discussion when someone thought Blockbuster was a good buy ... and Bigblock favored Netflix ...
And although the discussion got quite lively ...
There's little doubt as to who was right ...
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RC, I have often thought that exact thing. Had the man shown a bit of decency ever, I would have told him that he was correct on that call. as I recall you were also leaning toward Netflix back then. I hope that you were able to pull some profit from that very clear opportunity.
When I first came to this forum Bigblock was on vacation or somewhere and I had heard about his prowess with daytrading. I was awaiting his return with great anticipation. After close observations into his lack of social skills I went back and read every one of his posts. What I uncovered was the epitome of a freak show. I uncovered threads where just months before his return he was asking other members about learning to trade options and apon his return; he appointed himself a "Wizard".
My mistake was a simple one, after watching him verbally abuse just about everyone on the forum (including the Wordens) I called him out as the freak that he is. After that day he made it his lifes mission to come after me..Well you know the rest.
I know that he has knowledge and skills (maybe not on the level he thinks) but had he just been more like Diceman or Davidjohnhall then maybe he would have been more respected.
You are right, Bigblock was correct about Netflix.
But that is one stock, now lets look at one of his failures. He was pushing SIRI for years as it slowly trended down the whole time. I would be curious to know what he saw in that one...
Ok I am done sorry for the long wind.
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QUOTE (Apsll) But that is one stock, now lets look at one of his failures. He was pushing SIRI for years as it slowly trended down the whole time. I would be curious to know what he saw in that one...
I must confess ... I didn't remember much about SIRI ... likely because I am a chronic sufferer of CRS (Can't Remember Shit) ...
But ... through the magic of google ... I did a little research ...
Bigblock made it clear that he didn't like SIRI here ...
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=12491
That he was selling it short here ...
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=27125
And since he said that he liked it here ...
http://forums.worden.com/keeploggedin.aspx?g=posts&t=38875
It's up about 5-6 fold ...
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RC I am not going to argue semantics with you. Bigblock has made reference to SIRI many times you have left most of them off your list.
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=38897
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=23206
And I am sure that there are more. Like you I do not have the greatest memory. I only remember that he has mentioned it quit a few times and the stock is a dog. You can make an argument that just about any stock went up or down after someone mentions it.
If you choose to appreciate the man then by all means do so. On a personal level I could care less if you worship the devil himself.
You bring up a stock that I was discussing a long time ago with Scottnlena and we ended up being wrong, I just felt the need to clearify your innuendo that was not very well concealed.
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QUOTE (Apsll) RC I am not going to argue semantics with you. Bigblock has made reference to SIRI many times you have left most of them off your list.
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=38897
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=23206
And I am sure that there are more. Like you I do not have the greatest memory. I only remember that he has mentioned it quit a few times and the stock is a dog. You can make an argument that just about any stock went up or down after someone mentions it.
If you choose to appreciate the man then by all means do so. On a personal level I could care less if you worship the devil himself.
You bring up a stock that I was discussing a long time ago with Scottnlena and we ended up being wrong, I just felt the need to clearify your innuendo that was not very well concealed.
Actually Apsll ...
I did not remember that it was you and/or scott on the side of Blockbuster ... (back to the CRS) ... and there was certainly no innuendo intended there ... concealed or otherwise ...
I only posted what I quickly found using the google search string "SIRI Bigblock site:worden.com"
The first link that you posted was in the same time frame as the last that I posted ... promoting a $0.20 stock ...
The second link that you posted regarding "three muskateers" ... I'm not sure exactly what that meant ... but one would have had to be quite nimble to take money out of SIRI or TASR on the long side in that time frame ...
And I'm not sure what that third symbol was ... unless it was the old XM radio ... which I guess was taken out by Sirius ... perhaps it popped or flopped ... I don't know as I don't have a chart ...
At any rate ... I assure you that no inferences were being made to you ... or about you ...
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Well like I said above I do think about that thread quite a bit and I do give BB props for that one. I really believed back then that Blockbuster was going to at least put up a fight and change with the times toward the internet age but they pretty much rolled over and died, leaving room for Netflix to corner the market.
I got the impression that Bigblock thought (back then) and even up to a year ago that satellite radio was going to be the next big thing but like many other tried and failed technologies it is slowly fadding away.
My oppologies to you for my mistake.
I will just say this, that your statments were dead on target about Bigblock. His problem was not with content...but with delivery.
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Here is the original thread If anyone wants some good entertainment.
http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=25623
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I found a lot of food for thought in that thread Apsll ...
In particular ... in the discussion that scott and I were having regarding DRYS ...
Have you looked in on it lately ? and what it's chart pattern bodes for the future of the US economy ?
And what of XOIL ? nearing completion of what looks ominously like an H&S top ... at precisely the time of year that should represent peak demand ...
I fear that by the time that our elected leaders "get it" ... there will be little left to have ...
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I hope that everyone had a good 4rth of July....
RC, I looked at both charts. First DRYS, any problems with this company is purely fundamental. The sub-industry is doing just fine on the intermediat and longer term. I ran a sort on the sector by 26 week percent change and there are some really good comanies that are rising to the top inspite of the markets. SFL, TNK, VLCCF
XOIL is an index and it is effected by the markets no more so than any other index or industry.
I am not in any way suggesting a particular dirrection for the markets. As long as they are moving up or down then I think that folks can make money. I am new to shorting the market but looking foward to the adventure....
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Bye the way I know that I did not address your issue about the failing economy. To me that is pure speculation and I try not to play that game. Instead I put my energies into finding stocks that are moving.
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Here is a list of stocks that could move to the long side. I posted a similar list on another thread for stocks that look to be poised to move on the short side.
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neckline being retested.
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I am actually considering going long.........
My sources tell me that Europe is going to imitate the US Fed's QE (throw printed money at the market) like the US Fed did this last year and that the Fed has said "Did you like that?? We got a lot more ink left in the printer for the US version of QE 2.0 These guys are totally wack but I might as well try to ride the freight train until it goes over the cliff. YEE HAAAAAWWWW
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busted patterns are profitable setups, although h & s patterns are more risky.
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QUOTE (thekubiaks)
These guys are totally wack but I might as well try to ride the freight train until it goes over the cliff. YEE HAAAAAWWWW
Exactly !!
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IBD posted a follow through day yesterday, and the market is coming off extreme oversold levels. Probably a tradeable rally, at least.
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this rally may give the qqqq's a right shoulder within its current triangle formation.
underlying pattern technicals certainly seem to favor the bears.
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I feel like so much pessimism is baked in, that the market would be doing what it always does (fooling everyone) if it marched back towards the highs. I'm skeptical this rally will work out, which means that it probably will :)
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Only 25% of AAII’s members are bullish on stocks, versus nearly 42% who are bears. That is an unusual ratio. The obvious argument is the growing bearishness is bullish. Before you draw that conclusion, the history of this sentiment indicator is rather imprecise when it comes to timing:
“But investors can take their time phoning brokers, says James Bianco of Bianco Research. Only some 25% of AAII members were bullish on November 27, 2008, he notes. But stocks still fell 23% over the next four months, before finally enjoying a sharp rally.”
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my bet is these trendlines will be retested, allowing bullish sentiment to grow a bit before, the market declines another 10%, near term.
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