 Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 17
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Hello , 4/23/2010
I am revisiting the notion of using the lower 2nd stand dev to find stock or etfs indicating a True when sorting thru the universe of ETFS or Stocks . From a risk- reward point of view the security found at the lower 2nd stand dev should eventually regress 95% of time( in a normal distribution ) to the mean using the 20 day moving average as the sample mean .
Conceptually ,would it go something like this?
Sort indicates True when C = AVGC20 -lower 2nd stand
further described ... True when C= (AVGC20 - (2 * SQR(((C - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C1 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C2 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C3 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C4 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C5 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C6 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C7 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C8 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C9 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C10 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C11 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C12 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C13 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C14 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C15 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C16 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C17 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C18 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C19 - AVGC20) ^ 2) / 19)))
IN additon , because the likelyhood of a security closing on its exact lower 2nd stand dev. ,I would like to incorporate the notion using 20% < or > than lower 2nd stand dev as follows :
True when C < .20 *(AVGC20 - (2 * SQR(((C - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C1 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C2 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C3 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C4 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C5 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C6 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C7 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C8 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C9 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C10 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C11 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C12 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C13 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C14 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C15 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C16 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C17 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C18 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C19 - AVGC20) ^ 2) / 19)))) OR C> .8* (AVGC20 - (2 * SQR(((C - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C1 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C2 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C3 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C4 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C5 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C6 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C7 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C8 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C9 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C10 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C11 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C12 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C13 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C14 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C15 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C16 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C17 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C18 - AVGC20) ^ 2 + (C19 - AVGC20) ^ 2) / 19))))
Could you please help me refine the PCF formula so the that I could sort thru Etfs and find any ETF marked TRUE if it closed > .80 or < .20 of the lower 2nd stand dev that day.As you can tell Im not a math guy ,I apologize if I am loosely using terminology that I am not familair with.
THankyou,
Steve
(email removed by moderator)
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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If I'm understanding correctly:
ABS((C - AVGC20) / (2 * SQR(ABS(C ^ 2 + C1 ^ 2 + C2 ^ 2 + C3 ^ 2 + C4 ^ 2 + C5 ^ 2 + C6 ^ 2 + C7 ^ 2 + C8 ^ 2 + C9 ^ 2 + C10 ^ 2 + C11 ^ 2 + C12 ^ 2 + C13 ^ 2 + C14 ^ 2 + C15 ^ 2 + C16 ^ 2 + C17 ^ 2 + C18 ^ 2 + C19 ^ 2 - 20 * AVGC20 ^ 2) / 19)) + 1) <= .2
You may wish to review the following:
Modelling Bollinger Bands (& Standard Deviation) in a TC PCF
How to create a Personal Criteria Forumula (PCF)
PCF Formula Descriptions
Handy PCF example formulas to help you learn the syntax of PCFs!
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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