Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. Search | Active Topics |

fpetry - an O'Neil picturesque cup&handle Rate this Topic:
Previous Topic · Next Topic Watch this topic · Print this topic ·
ben2k9
Posted : Saturday, March 6, 2010 10:57:04 AM

Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
Hi Fpetry,

PCLN strikes me as a textbook example of the IBD flagship method...the cup & handle breakout.  CANSLIM quality fundamentals, well shaped base, high volume breakout...it looks pretty clean cut.  What do you think?

fpetry
Posted : Saturday, March 6, 2010 2:06:16 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775

Hey Ben, thanks for the example and at first glance looks textbook as you note. BTW, IBD founder O'Neil is the guy who coined and defined this pattern, stating that 50 years of research shows it to be the most fruitful of all patterns.  Okay, here are most of technical the criteria for an IBD cup/handle:

*Start of cup (12/28/09) must come on heels of prior uptrend of at least 20%.  Pass.
*That prior uptrend must have come on increased green volume.  Pass (note Nov.volume).
*Length of pattern at least 7 weeks.  Pass.
*Depth of cup not to exceed 35%.  Pass.
*Overall lowering of volume along botton of cup relative to left and right side buildups.  Pass.
*Handle at least 5 days.  Pass.
*Handle location in top half of cup depth. Pass.
*Depth of handle not to exceed 12-15%.  Pass.
*Volume in handle lower than its vertical buildup.  Pass.
*Handle located above the 50-day moving average, with 50 above 200.  Pass.
*Breakout of handle on increased volume.  Pass.

I believe that covers most of the pure technical criteria for IBD's cup with handle, but for it to be legit the stock also has to pass O'Neil's fudanmentals and other canslim criteria, and you say it does apparently.

I love O'Neil's books and teachings but I'm not hard core on canslim, but like to implement some  of his stuff into my personal methods, especially his money management and risk methods.

One thing I note on PCLN is that price has made quite a run since Nov. 08 and I have to wonder if its current base isn't a latter stage one that O'neil warns about. Thanks for the exercise, exellent eye Ben!

driger
Posted : Saturday, March 6, 2010 5:35:09 PM

Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
wow, with all those requirements, why even bother with cup and handles, and canslim.

go ahead ben, bet the house on it, and lets see what happens. who cares about the right side of the cup being a gap.
traderm30
Posted : Sunday, March 7, 2010 12:48:07 PM
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
QUOTE (driger)
wow, with all those requirements, why even bother with cup and handles, and canslim.

go ahead ben, bet the house on it, and lets see what happens. who cares about the right side of the cup being a gap.


You dare challenge the great O'Neil?
fpetry
Posted : Sunday, March 7, 2010 1:36:17 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (driger)
wow, with all those requirements, why even bother with cup and handles, and canslim.

go ahead ben, bet the house on it, and lets see what happens. who cares about the right side of the cup being a gap.


Canslim is not for everyone as its method requires study and work. Seems a lot of traders/investors who use charts are looking for the easy way. Like a magic bullet TC scan or a chart full of more colorful indicators than you can shake a stick at, that instantly spits out a winning stock selection. The IBD cup/handle is very, very easy and quick to analyze once the work has been done in memorizing its criteria over a period of time. I mean, quick glance at the PCLN chart on Telechart instantly shows most of the criteria that requires no more than a few seconds to see whether pattern is strong enough to consider further. The only individual criteria that might take more than two seconds to analyze are cup’s and handle’s depth, which is easy anyway because of the Telechart horizontal scale percentage lines, with percentage for each step easily noted bottom right of every chart. Anyone who reads O’Neil’s book quickly sees the credibility of the cup/handle as he takes you step by step into exactly why the pattern has been consistently successful over decades. As the pattern slowly evolves over weeks and months he explains how predictable human emotions literally shape the pattern.   Great reading imo because a lot of the info applies to most all chart pattern types. Or any chart pattern for that matter.   Should be noted that rarely if ever does a perfect cup/handle present itself...O'Neil states the pattern should have a simple majority of the criteria, the more the better.  Like I said, I’m not a slave to O’Neil/IBD/canslim, but simply use some of its parts, mostly technical. As for analyzing canslim’s fundamental criteria for a stock, now that can take some time.   But to the rescue…the IBD site has a premium stock scan wizard for that. I personally don’t use that IBD tool but did try it out for a while. Eventually came back to using purely Telechart for technicals with a few fundamental conditions added.
 
Don’t understand your comment on the right side of cup being a gap. If I read you right, you seem to think that gap is somehow a negative? Since when are gaps at that point in a pattern not bullish? It’s not like it was an exhaustion gap.  As for PCLN it keeps going up on major gaps without filling, i.e. the Aug. and Nov. gaps.  Please explain as I may have misintepreted, thanks. PCLN may very well collapse from current price; no one ever said a cup/handle works better than even odds, just that when it does work it works above average vs. other pattern types for percentage gains. As I note above, PCLN’s longer term chart looking too extended for me, but was using the current setup to go into detail on the pattern.  Cheers.
ben2k9
Posted : Sunday, March 7, 2010 4:08:17 PM

Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
QUOTE (driger)
wow, with all those requirements, why even bother with cup and handles, and canslim.

go ahead ben, bet the house on it, and lets see what happens. who cares about the right side of the cup being a gap.


I detect a little schadenfreude, Driger
traderm30
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 9:29:43 AM
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
QUOTE (fpetry)
QUOTE (driger)
wow, with all those requirements, why even bother with cup and handles, and canslim.

go ahead ben, bet the house on it, and lets see what happens. who cares about the right side of the cup being a gap.


Canslim is not for everyone as its method requires study and work. Seems a lot of traders/investors who use charts are looking for the easy way. Like a magic bullet TC scan or a chart full of more colorful indicators than you can shake a stick at, that instantly spits out a winning stock selection. The IBD cup/handle is very, very easy and quick to analyze once the work has been done in memorizing its criteria over a period of time. I mean, quick glance at the PCLN chart on Telechart instantly shows most of the criteria that requires no more than a few seconds to see whether pattern is strong enough to consider further. The only individual criteria that might take more than two seconds to analyze are cup’s and handle’s depth, which is easy anyway because of the Telechart horizontal scale percentage lines, with percentage for each step easily noted bottom right of every chart. Anyone who reads O’Neil’s book quickly sees the credibility of the cup/handle as he takes you step by step into exactly why the pattern has been consistently successful over decades. As the pattern slowly evolves over weeks and months he explains how predictable human emotions literally shape the pattern.   Great reading imo because a lot of the info applies to most all chart pattern types. Or any chart pattern for that matter.   Should be noted that rarely if ever does a perfect cup/handle present itself...O'Neil states the pattern should have a simple majority of the criteria, the more the better.  Like I said, I’m not a slave to O’Neil/IBD/canslim, but simply use some of its parts, mostly technical. As for analyzing canslim’s fundamental criteria for a stock, now that can take some time.   But to the rescue…the IBD site has a premium stock scan wizard for that. I personally don’t use that IBD tool but did try it out for a while. Eventually came back to using purely Telechart for technicals with a few fundamental conditions added.
 
Don’t understand your comment on the right side of cup being a gap. If I read you right, you seem to think that gap is somehow a negative? Since when are gaps at that point in a pattern not bullish? It’s not like it was an exhaustion gap.  As for PCLN it keeps going up on major gaps without filling, i.e. the Aug. and Nov. gaps.  Please explain as I may have misintepreted, thanks. PCLN may very well collapse from current price; no one ever said a cup/handle works better than even odds, just that when it does work it works above average vs. other pattern types for percentage gains. As I note above, PCLN’s longer term chart looking too extended for me, but was using the current setup to go into detail on the pattern.  Cheers.


Fpetrey, you don't have to divulge this and don't feel as if I am intruding on your personal methods, but would you mind sharing some of the fundamental criteria you use in Telechart? Either by easy scans or any particular scans you may use? Thanks.
alindsley
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 10:07:11 AM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
This is actually a high handle. The problem I see with this 'cup' is that the volume is supposed to fall as it drops down the left side of the cup, remain low across the bottom, slowly rising along the right side (not all of a sudden). The handle should also do the same thing: volume falling as price recedes, and then to be a good breakout we ought to see hugh volume.

All of this and the statistics mentioned above ought to be seen on a weekly chart. Textbook CnH? I don't think this would do for one. Although PCLN is slowly working it's way up the BBands nicely, just not as a textbook CnH imho
fpetry
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 11:40:36 AM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775

QUOTE (traderm30)
Fpetrey, you don't have to divulge this and don't feel as if I am intruding on your personal methods, but would you mind sharing some of the fundamental criteria you use in Telechart? Either by easy scans or any particular scans you may use? Thanks.


traderm30, actually I don't currently use any TC fundamental conditions in my TC scans, though I used to.  The conditions are now via a free website I use at finviz dot com.  It has a lot of stuff found at yahoo finance but in a better format imo that's quick to use.  At main page just enter stock symbol in box top right with ticker option selected.  It also has a fundamental screen tool scan but I don't use that.  Instead I go to the stock's page where I can quickly eyeball basic fundamentals along with a great news archive.  My funamental conditions loosely are:

*Capitalization less than 5 billion.
*Float less than 100 million.
*Short interst for longs less than 20%.
*Institutional support in the green, higher the better, except over 70% or so, i.e. too much ownership.
*Check earnings but give priority to chart action, more reliable imo especially for young companies.
*Check news, i.e. why did price spike on that day?  Years ago I bought a breakout without checking news and saw that it was bought out thus reason for spike, and of course often times price does nothing but trade in extremely tight range for days/weeks until buyout finalizes.

In short I keep it simple on fundies because I plead ignorance on a lot of that stuff.  And the emphasis I place on fudamental components highly influenced on whether I'm playing a stock for a quick swing trade or something longer.  RNN is example where I basically traded it pure technicals. But in end for me the price action on the chart always rules when making buy/sell decisions regardless of so called great fundamentals and news.  Someone in another thread had a great comment by Mr. Worden on why charts trump fundamentals.

Back to IBD's fundmental screen wizard and why I quit using it and went with the current simpler approach.  If you enter all the recommended criteria for canslim  in the screener it would often times yield ZERO results.  And I also passed on some great looking setups in Telechart that went on to great gains, all because the stock came up negative on the IBD canslim screener. 

fpetry
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 11:50:18 AM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (alindsley)
This is actually a high handle. The problem I see with this 'cup' is that the volume is supposed to fall as it drops down the left side of the cup, remain low across the bottom, slowly rising along the right side (not all of a sudden). The handle should also do the same thing: volume falling as price recedes, and then to be a good breakout we ought to see hugh volume.

All of this and the statistics mentioned above ought to be seen on a weekly chart. Textbook CnH? I don't think this would do for one. Although PCLN is slowly working it's way up the BBands nicely, just not as a textbook CnH imho


Good point alindsley on high handle, and I'm not sure if O'Neil prefers handle a bit lower or not.   Another good point of left side volume though I disagree somewhat as I don't think the red volume is excessive.  Along lows of cup he likes areas of volume drying up, but he also notes that a burst of high red volume at bottom can be good as it finally shakes out most of weak hands.  As for gradual higher volume buildup on right side of cup being more gradual and less steep or not all of sudden as you say, I believe you are absolutely  right.  Thanks for dissecting my dissection:)  Excellent counter reply.
alindsley
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 1:20:53 PM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825

Statistically speaking a high handle does not have the movement a normal handle would. Check out GFA on a weekly chart and note how the volume is high coming down the left side, low across the bottom, then progressingly rising on the right side on a real flaky double bottom (rt side should fall below left side a few % points), then falls again with the handle and finally a push off the 50d. 

Hopefully we will see a breakout next week on super high volume (best case scenerio). Buy point would be 0.10 above the high point of the handle at 18.91.

Be sure to set your stops in case our best case scenerios do not work out as expected.

alindsley
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 1:22:06 PM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
Still not a perfect example, but it will work. thanks for the kind words.
fpetry
Posted : Monday, March 8, 2010 2:03:50 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (alindsley)

Statistically speaking a high handle does not have the movement a normal handle would. Check out GFA on a weekly chart and note how the volume is high coming down the left side, low across the bottom, then progressingly rising on the right side on a real flaky double bottom (rt side should fall below left side a few % points), then falls again with the handle and finally a push off the 50d. 

Hopefully we will see a breakout next week on super high volume (best case scenerio). Buy point would be 0.10 above the high point of the handle at 18.91.



GFA as your chart is showing has four major flaws as a cup/handle I think.  The depth of GFA cup is about 90% (high of 25 to low of 2.66).  O'Neil says depth should not exceed 33/35%, with rare exceptions up to a max of 50%.  He also states max length for pattern at 15 months, and GFA chart showing has length exceeding that max by about 7 months.  The handle length in GFA is excessive at nearly five months.  Finally, the handle you indicate has a depth of about 35%, with O'Neil stating handle depth should not exceed 15% under current market conditions.  Thanks for showing it, makes for good analysis and give and take.  Not saying GFA won't do well from here, and I agree that if price takes out 18.81 on high volume that it could be a legit buy signal.

Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:22:43 AM

Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
Hi Fpetry, I thought that this might be the best thread to get your attention. Quick analysis if you have the time ..... BEAT

I have discussed many times with you my reluctance to consider IPO's.. However I am just liking this so much right here....

Can I get your analysis on this stock please?

Thanks, Apsll.
fpetry
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 11:33:55 AM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775

QUOTE (Apsll)
Hi Fpetry, I thought that this might be the best thread to get your attention. Quick analysis if you have the time ..... BEAT


Hey Apsll, you know I love the challenge of dissecting a chart pattern, being that I am definitely big on patterns:) 

My default TC chart is the daily at zoom 3 and first thing that popped was huge volume and down gaps in July last year.  Large muti month mostly sideways action since then is constructive I think. The bounce off of Dec. bottom came on improved volume (seen more easily at zoom 5), and that was doubly good cause price regained the 50ema.  Briefly lost it in Feb but has now regained it.  I first looked at this chart a bit earlier but I had not updated and was thinking the chart would look lot better if price would take out what was shaping up to be possibly a little mini flag.  I updated and see that price has indeed gapped above the Jan. high resistance this morning, apparently on an analyst upgrade.  Almost two hours into the session and the gap is holding but volume is not showing up, so that would be a concern if I were playing it.  Looking at the 5 min. chart the two biggest volume bars are red to the downside, at the open and 10:10 eastern.  But the day is long. Zooming back out I see several resistance areas, the Oct highs, Sept highs, and Aug highs, three successive little humps there.  And finally the 200ema, but it's close to the Aug high resistance, and the 200 sma is lower, fwiw.  If price were to make up to that Aug high and stall it would still be a nice gain from here.  That Aug. high resistance pretty important imo because it filled a big gap there.  Just ready to post this reply and I see two green volume spikes on the five minute at 11:20, largest volume bars of day so far, so maybe it's ready to do something:)  Enjoyed the exercise.

Oh, regarding IPOs.  I don't bother with them myself until they are at least about a year old, sometimes 6 months.  By then the lockup period has expired and patterns have had time to evolve and a better feel for the price action is seen,  moving averages noted for any significance to price action as resistance/support, etc.

Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 1:25:59 PM

Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308

Thanks for your help Fpetry. I once read that IPO's follow a pattern and it goes kind of like this...Hit it boys-----

Just kidding. When an IPO is first listed it will gain lots of attention from those that were in the know before the company went public. That is why in most cases you will see that from day one price will usually run-up very fast. The retail traders will catch wind of the stock and jump on board just in time to buy their shares from the "Early Birds" The guys in the know. Once smart money is out of the stock then the retailers start to panic sell as they are left holding the bag.

Once a bottom has formed then we start to see some more interest in the stock. Now with this stock BEAT I noticed a nice Bottom pattern but what really has my interest peaked is the fact that this company has zero debt and 99% institutional support this early in the game.

I did go ahead and buy some shares.

Thanks for your help on this one Fpetry.

fpetry
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 2:28:58 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (Apsll)

Thanks for your help Fpetry. I once read that IPO's follow a pattern and it goes kind of like this...Hit it boys-----

Just kidding. When an IPO is first listed it will gain lots of attention from those that were in the know before the company went public. That is why in most cases you will see that from day one price will usually run-up very fast. The retail traders will catch wind of the stock and jump on board just in time to buy their shares from the "Early Birds" The guys in the know. Once smart money is out of the stock then the retailers start to panic sell as they are left holding the bag.

Once a bottom has formed then we start to see some more interest in the stock. Now with this stock BEAT I noticed a nice Bottom pattern but what really has my interest peaked is the fact that this company has zero debt and 99% institutional support this early in the game.

I did go ahead and buy some shares.

Thanks for your help on this one Fpetry.



The main idea for buying a recent IPO or young company (after it has traded a half year to half dozen years)  and formed a some bases is because it's the young companies of  7 years and less that on average make the big spectacular gains.  Think of a young MSFT or GOOG  vs. an old stodgy stock such as KO or GE.  Of course MSFT is now one of those old stodgy stocks:)

99% inst. support for BEAT?  If you mean insitutional ownership all sources I look at show it at about 66%.  FWIW,  and I can't name specifically where I read it or who stated it, but institutional ownership at 70% or more can be viewed as a negative because the stock is over owned by the big players, i.e. no one left to push it up.  I'm sure that's a generality of course, but something to consider imo.  Good luck with BEAT.

Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:05:05 PM

Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
Yes I bought Microsoft at $3.00........ No I wish that I had known back then. I did get that info on Institutional participation right from Telechart. It is a field that I have on my chart screen. I agree with you that I do not know how accurate this information is. From my broker I have researched that there are currently 24 million shares outstanding. So there is room for growth there. Please let me know if I am misinterpreting the information on this IPO.

I appreciate your insights on IPO's Fpetry I was thinking of you when I was doing my research.....
fpetry
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:19:19 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (Apsll)
Yes I bought Microsoft at $3.00........ No I wish that I had known back then. I did get that info on Institutional participation right from Telechart. It is a field that I have on my chart screen. I agree with you that I do not know how accurate this information is. From my broker I have researched that there are currently 24 million shares outstanding. So there is room for growth there. Please let me know if I am misinterpreting the information on this IPO.

I appreciate your insights on IPO's Fpetry I was thinking of you when I was doing my research.....


Yea, outstanding shares at 24 mln, but outstanding shares are generally not available for public trading as often held by insiders under restrictions, or maybe original ipo owners, etc..  Now the float is what  you may mean to refer to and it too in Beat's case is also at 24 mln, but if too much is owned, oh well, that info is often three months old or so, so who really knows:)  The 99% may be the percentile?  Should ask a TC trainer on the other forum maybe.
fpetry
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:27:41 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
QUOTE (fpetry)
QUOTE (Apsll)
Yes I bought Microsoft at $3.00........ No I wish that I had known back then. I did get that info on Institutional participation right from Telechart. It is a field that I have on my chart screen. I agree with you that I do not know how accurate this information is. From my broker I have researched that there are currently 24 million shares outstanding. So there is room for growth there. Please let me know if I am misinterpreting the information on this IPO.

I appreciate your insights on IPO's Fpetry I was thinking of you when I was doing my research.....


Yea, outstanding shares at 24 mln, but outstanding shares are generally not available for public trading as often held by insiders under restrictions, or maybe original ipo owners, etc..  Now the float is what  you may mean to refer to and it too in Beat's case is also at 24 mln, but if too much is owned, oh well, that info is often three months old or so, so who really knows:)  The 99% may be the percentile?  Should ask a TC trainer on the other forum maybe.


Outstanding vs. float on the shares, I was not totally correct.  Outstanding includes all shares issued by co., both restricted and available for public trading.  If that's true and the float shows same number as outstanding as is here, well, I'm confused.  Unless it means that there are now no restricted shares and all shares are now available for public trading?
Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 4:02:16 PM

Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308

Fpetry, that was always my understanding is that the float meant that these shares are outstanding and are not part of the shares used for special issue. I could be wrong on this as very rarely do I worry about the float unless it is a really low number.

funnymony
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 4:52:45 PM

Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
is this an inverse c & h on TLT?




johnlc
Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 7:55:55 PM
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
Apsll:    Your alzeheimers must be kicking in.   You told me, no not just me, the entire forum that you don't mess with IPO's,  when I told you to check out RUE.    Well that worked out fine for me. 

You are too late for BEAT.    $7.30  max.     My prognosis is that it will" beat" you.     Like that play on words?
Apsll
Posted : Thursday, April 1, 2010 6:16:20 PM

Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
You see John, the ability for one to be open minded enough to adapt even in the face of un familiar teritory is a strength and not a weakness. I do not normally give a second look to an IPO unless it has at least a three year history.

But I also know a good chart when I see one.

I guess that your "prognossis" was off on March 10th.

Fpetry; know of any more IPO's like BEAT?

ben2k9
Posted : Friday, April 2, 2010 9:30:06 AM

Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
Apsll,

I don't remember what thread it was, but you mentioned DIN and it has done very well since then.
ben2k9
Posted : Friday, April 2, 2010 9:33:08 AM

Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
And back to the topic at hand, PCLN is up about 10% since this was posted.  Good fundamental story, the big story is that priceline is growing internationally especially in Asia markets.

Has been trading pretty tightly...a positive
Users browsing this topic
Guest-1

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.