Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
In another thread I posted a chart for this one that highlighted a method for setting alarms to let me know when price breaks a line of resistance. I also want to share some other features along with my opinions on some key areas.
You can see that price has made two consecutive swing highs; one in January and the most recent in February. Price has now pulled back just a tad and appears to be using the swing low (a product of the two swing highs) as support on low volume. I have found that at times this can lead to a great swing trade opportunity. I also see this as a chance to see a new high and a break out from this bottom formation. One can either play the swing that could start to form or wait for the break-out (the break-out is more my style). Price could also break down past the swing lows, and then I would have to re-evaluate and form a new strategy or just let this one go.
I also want to discuss smart money. Some traders will say that smart money is to "smart" to just let the regular Joe trader play these break-outs, if trading were that easy then we would all be living on our own islands. Well then I say look at it this way - if the smart money is going to get their profits then they are going to have to run this up sooner or later. I mean what other choice is there? Price either goes up or it does not. Now they will give some head fakes and possibly drag out the bottom longer hoping that you will not be looking when they strike. Ah the beauty of the alarm. You can set them for the break to the up-side and also set one for the break of the down-side. You can set a whole bunch of these bad boys and then the party is on.
In the bottom window I have a home-made volume oscillator (I did not design it). I simply plot a 5 day exponential moving average on volume then make the volume bars "not visible". Next I add a Bollinger Band 15, 15 to the moving average. I can now use this A). As a volume (Over-sold- Over bought) oscillator and B). I can use the Bands to gauge volume volatility and look for narrowing Bands. It is very versatile.
In the top window I have experimented and found that the 50 day sma is acting as a good gauge for support levels. This can help me time by buy-in and then I can use the moving average as support.
Now all I need do is wait for my alarm along with a whole bunch of alarms on other critical charts.
Keep in mind that supply and demand also plays a pivotal role in a charts analysis. I could go into great details about my own theories but that will be for another thread. Basically though smart money buys up as much supply as they can at "Bottom Prices" this in turn creates a demand and so they can run the price up selling their demand to everyone else. Once the supply has been dumped back into the market then the demand dries up and you get a "Top" in the market. I know that all this stuff sounds "cliché"...Just like "buy low and sell high" but you would be surprised at how many folks do just the opposite. Why do they do this?? GREED....
Ok enough for now. Here is the chart for SNV.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
Good to see someone besides me who uses the 50 day moving average as a potential key support/resistance line. I note too that the 200 sma is also acting as resistance in this case, right where your yellow resistance lines are drawn, so a move above that level would be a bit more significant imo. But the the 200 ema that I usually prefer is a bit higher, fwiw. The trendline drawn from October highs is another possible resistance level that would be taken out on move above this month's high.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
Meant to say a move above 200day plus yellow resistance line would be a bit more powerful in that two points of resistance would be taken out, not that I thought the 200 day was more important in this case than your resistance yellow lines.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
I use the 50 as well, I just don't talk about it as much because it's already covered by other discussions. It's hard to monitor sustained moves without respecting the 50.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Howdy TB & Fpetry, Yes I see what you guys are seeing also. I did make one small error in my chart. I was using the 50 day EMA and not the Simple moving average. I did plot the 200 Sma and the 200 Ema as well as the 50 Sma and it appears that these averages have created a nice little trading channel for the price.
Thanks for your input gents. It is always appreciated and it opens my eyes wider.....
Apsll.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
QUOTE (tobydad) I use the 50 as well, I just don't talk about it as much because it's already covered by other discussions. It's hard to monitor sustained moves without respecting the 50.
A little hyperbole on my part there, and I definitely tend to talk about it like a broken record:)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (fpetry) QUOTE (tobydad) I use the 50 as well, I just don't talk about it as much because it's already covered by other discussions. It's hard to monitor sustained moves without respecting the 50. A little hyperbole on my part there, and I definitely tend to talk about it like a broken record:) No problem, hey, it's what you do. I talk about my stuff ad nauseum. We tend to discuss what is our focus. Jesus said, "Out of the abundance of the heart, the mouth speaketh". His context was different but the truth is the same. It's all good info. Thanks for your contributions.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
|
Apsll.....i got home a little early today and am looking at SNV.....it looks ugly as a long...are you thinking to buy near 2.40 or just watch price action for a while?
Also MPEL has formed a flag on the hourly charts so i should know soon whether to protect my profits or buy more.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Coubo, I agree that this is not a long right now. I want to know when this one turns around. That is why I had the alarm set for $3.00
After todays action though, I am going to move the alarm line down to just over todays high. That will give me an early warning. The reason I am considering this for a trade this early is that price is still in that support range and I do not think that there is enough volume to punch that hole through and down. I could be wrong about this of course. Like I said earlier that if price breaks down through the support then I will just take this off my list.
That is the beauty of the alarm. You can set it and forget it......
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
A couple of months ago Worden's had a professional trader on one of their tuesday evening lessons.
He discussed that the 40 SMA worked better than the 50
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
OK, I'll watch the 40. Very interesting. Thanks John.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
Since the great "snow job" errr.... the employment report that is effected by snow will be the rocket fuel tomorrow and the cooks are baking their numbers all night, I think SNV will have a nice run tomorrow, I may snag some.
Bad report.... it snowed.. we know it, no big deal....rally !!!
Good report.....Rocket fuel....rally * 2
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
CWTR had a nice adrenalin boost on a great earnings report yesterday......
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I am not saying that this is now a reversal but well worth watching. Price is sitting on the early to mid February support level. The white horizontal line represents my alarm and not a buy signal.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 38
|
Who is this Jesus guy you quote is he a trader?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (LCRX) Who is this Jesus guy you quote is he a trader?
No, but He made you and I fearfully and wonderfully so that we have minds with which to trade and understand the markets and human behavior. He is the Lord of all. He is, at once, powerful yet kind, all-conquering yet forgiving, majestic yet willing to condescend to someone like me; He is the greatest imagination of mankind and exceeds the greatest invention our thoughts can perceive. He is the glorious King who came once as a lowly baby and served mankind by dying in our place when we were the ones deserving of the cruelty of His passion and cross. And He is the glorious King who will return as an omnipotent Sovereign over all the nations of the earth to judge both the living and the dead. He is merciful and gracious yet must demand our allegiance to His rightful claim as Lord of all the earth. And, just as in our great land we acknowledge ownership by right of creation through our intellectual property laws (patent and copyright), so this Jesus claims right to every member of the human race by right of creation. Yet so kind is He that He died for us to have the right to remain a member of the mutinous coup that began in the garden or turn and bow our knee to a benevolent Savior and Lord. You asked "Who is this Jesus?" That, to the best of my abilities, is who He is. And I commend to you that there is no greater, more joyful or more pleasurable way to live our lives than in His service.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
...but I'll never be able to describe Him like Dr. S.M. Lockridge quoted in this awesome video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z15FlTONVo&feature=related
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 38
|
You are right about one thing..... he is the biggest imagination of all time, you like you tube videos? watch Penn and Teller, they will clear up some of your misconceptions.You might also believe there is a room full of virgins for you also!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
LCRX, great tip on Penn and Teller. Their brilliant expose of the Bible has made me renounce my faith. I'll go ahead and change everything I've believed and studied for so many years. Of course, just joking; and no offense intended. I really am just light-heartedly joking. I'm sure they are sincere and, perhaps, genuinely interested in what they see as the welfare of others. But I can tell you, from the standpoint of any objective literary critic, their first two arguments are hogwash. I've debated, in a formal and public forum, quite a number of respected and well-trained atheists that would have been embarrassed by those arguments. Just a tip, I wouldn't base your own decision to run from the truth on Penn and Teller. Great entertainers, not so great philosophers or educators. They might want to stick with their strengths.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
But back to us, LCRX, what is your beef with me? You've made 8 posts on this forum and I see you taking shots at people without much else in the way of contribution. Do you need some help understanding the purpose of a forum like this? Maybe some of us here can help you get a sense of how things are supposed to work here. Glad to help if I can.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
TD heed the warning signs. These forums are starting to attract all types of odd balls. LCRX, well, that is his opinion.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Traderm, thank you for the support and warning. Yes, it is his opinion but he's entitled to it. Thus is displayed the magnanimity of an all powerful God. LCRX, if you're reading this, you might find it interesting to think about the fact that it is a rare great thinker or world leader who did not give assent to the fact that, first, Jesus was, inarguably, a historical character (no, I did not say 'hysterical') and, second, that He was no less than one of the greatest teachers in all of human history as well as one of the highest ideals to which man can aspire. Just some thoughts, no belligerence intended in my argument.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 38
|
TD you were the first to bring up the fiction of religion I was just responding to you, are you in the group of zealots that think the earth is only 6,000 years old? I read these post in the hope of expanding my trader mentality, I find no place for any religion based advice.Maybe you can post a chart and circle the entry points where the almighty tapped you on the shoulder and said buy buy buy!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
LCRX, it is not cool to attack someones faith like you are. Tobydad has been tolerant with you up to this point. I have noticed that every post you have made was designed to provoke or elicit emotion. If you are here to learn as you claim than your approach is a bit askew.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
QUOTE (LCRX) TD you were the first to bring up the fiction of religion I was just responding to you, are you in the group of zealots that think the earth is only 6,000 years old? I read these post in the hope of expanding my trader mentality, I find no place for any religion based advice.Maybe you can post a chart and circle the entry points where the almighty tapped you on the shoulder and said buy buy buy!
Fiction of religion, LOL! I suppose you must have been one of the lucky few that actually came from monkeys. Man just what we need around here, one more idiot. No wait, earth was formed by atoms and molecules. The fact that you just launched an unprovoked attack on another man's faith is whats even more egregious. Are you sure you should be investing? Oh well, in the end it will be your ass in the flames. The Bible, who reads that anymore? Who needs that when you have Scientology?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
LCRX, I understand what you are saying, but speaking calmly and rationally, I suppose you realize that I was not speaking to you when I quoted Jesus, so it is, technically speaking, impossible for you to respond to me. And I did not bring up religion, you actually did by your probing query with regard to Jesus. And never once have you ever seen me write anything referencing "the Almightly tapping me on the shoulder". That is actually your effort to attempt an argument from absurdity. Sadly, you have done it very poorly and , thus, it is denied its intended effect. And, yes, I am filled with zeal for what I believe, every real man should be zealous for his principles and beliefs; I wear it like a badge of honor. Now as for the age of the earth, the Bible actually records about 10-11,000 years of history, not 6 as you assert; but, if you will read a little about recent findings in deep space radiometry and the rapidly expanding universe, coupled with Einstein's theory of relativity, you will discover that a young earth and a more rapidly aging universe are both possible in a coincident manner. I am unsure as to why you have taken to your attacks on me. I hope I have demonstrated that I am more than willing to discuss it in a logical fashion. Absent of a more intelligent discussion, I will, with your kind permission, abstain from any further of these very poor attempts at debate. But I will take it upon myself to keep praying for you. All the best.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
Big Block must have finally coughed up the money for a Worden subscription LOL! Hey TD did you hear about the agnostic insomniac dyslexic? He stayed up all night wondering if there really was a dog.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
And Apsll criticizes me cause I think the Pats cheated
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (traderm30) Big Block must have finally coughed up the money for a Worden subscription LOL! Hey TD did you hear about the agnostic insomniac dyslexic? He stayed up all night wondering if there really was a dog. I love that one. And not because I want to make fun of agnostics...or insomniacs or dyslexics for that matter. I just love word plays. Very funny. Thanks. (We need some humor around here lately.)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I did receive an alarm on this one today. I mentioned above that I droped it from $3.00 down to $2.72 so that I would get an early warning. Now I can watch this daily where as before I might have forgotten to check back.
The reason that I set the alarm above the high of March 4th was that I had a feeling that price would bounce of the support level high-lighted in my chart.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Well the bounce is going very well and price is once again knocking on the resistance door. This will be the third time and maybe the charm. Setting these alarms is really paying off, waiting for these pullbacks to resolve are far less tedious when you do not have to look at the chart every day.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 38
|
TD Are you sugggesting that the earth is 11,000 years old?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
LCRX Are you suggesting that radiometric and Carbon-14 dating are worth anything?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
SNV has broken the resistance level (or triangle).
Sometimes with these patterns price will drift down to the old resistance line (now support) before taking off. I have plotted two candles (Blue)on the chart to show this. Sometimes price will just rally with no break and the worst case is that price will turn against you all together so in the begining I will use a stop that is close to and below the support. In this case $2.90
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
SNV did well today.
I have been following this one for a couple weeks now and patience has paid off. The 50 day sma held up pretty well with price bouncing off of it in early March. Support in the mid $2 range from early February also played a part in launching this nice action.
What is a good lesson is that we could watch this evolve into a nice trade from the first sighting. I hope that some were able to get in this one at a good price.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I am updating two charts this morning because I believe that SNV & USU are both prime buy candidates. We watched them break from their bottom formations and blossomed into fine rallies. Lucky for us they are both taking a rest before continuing to move up.
Here are the charts. Notice the diverging TSV from ROC pattern that I discussed on other threads. This divergence pattern shows sign of accumulation. (I was taught this by professional traders) It appears to be a reliable signal...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
FYI: We are at a critical point. Arguably every major index with the exception of the Nasdaq have bumped their heads against a major resistance trendline. Nasdaq appears (quick glance only) to have broken through. Go long (short term) with extra care today. Good hunting all!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
By the way, that last comment has nothing to do with what Apsll was saying, just a general comment about going long on anything.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
|
FYI---"Synovus Financial Corp. reported a quarterly loss of more than $200 million late Tuesday. The lender said the first-quarter net loss was $215.7 million. The net loss attributable to common shareholders was $229.8 million, or 47 cents a share. That compares to a loss of $150.9 million, or 46 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. Synovus reiterated that it's pursuing more strategic initiatives to bolster its capital position. "Synovus is exploring these strategic initiatives in response to, among other factors, regulatory expectations, evolving industry capital standards, and a challenging economic environment," the company said in a statement. '
Help---I was up on this 7% today and after hours lost all that plus another 4%. I am having trouble deciding whether to sell in the am or hold this for awhile. Do you suppose the technicals will break down. Do you think it will go back to the 50 day. My stop is currently set at 3.22. What would you do?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Sailnadream. I know that this is not what you want to hear but it is not a good idea to hold a stock over-night under these kinds of conditions. (When pending financial news is due).
I have read that one cause for a chart to move side-ways is when smart money is waiting for fundamentals to improve. They will not commit to buying or selling until the numbers come out. Thus the consolidation in price.
It is funny because you also read that smart money already knows everything about the financials and that the news is discounted into the price already. Take into consideration that TSV has been above zero during the entire trading range and it does make one think.
The after market selling could just be weak holders selling in a panic and then other weak holders will see this negative activity and then the rush is on. If smart money were tipped off before hand then we would have seen their action before now...
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
I do not want to advise you either way of course, that would be irresponsible of me. I will only say that if all you have to give up is your recent profits then that kind of damage is not so bad...
Good luck.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |