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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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Starting a new thread to post some of my ideas and see how they stand up to the rigor of scrutiny.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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This is probably less risky as a breakout play above $4.30, but may also consider a half position upon a fill of the recent gap, the 20sma, or the last swing high depending on the look of the pullback. I like the increasing volume on the last three up moves and lack of panic selling on some decent sized drops. It is also knocking for the 3rd/4th time at long term resistance and is hanging around the highs this time.
Some negatives are the volatility of this stock, the fact that it is in financial Credit Services and the market has been going up on very light volume and could still be in a medium term downtrend.
Watchlist material for now!
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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wow yours must be brass
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Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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it looks interesting. On the weekly it's like a double-bottom followed by a big saucer base.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Agree with Benk about liking this bottom, The double bottom and all that volume put in building it has not been resolved yet. Look how low the volume is during the saucer. The run up phase on this one should be $$$$.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Long term overhead resistance coming around 4.00. I suspect a pull back is in order to around 3.00. Then it may fly. It may move in conjunction with C.
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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Apsll.....when you get some time explain further the statement " double bottom and all that volume put in building it has not been resolved yet" What are you looking for?
johnlc....you are probably right about the brass on buying that pullback, this thing is a bucking bronco right now and i have felt the nut cracker already before.
P.S.... this stock has huge short interest to ignite a breakout.
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Never had much success on backtesting short interest. Maybe all other scenarios did not mix well. However I do like hi short interest. Diceman steered me that way quite a while ago.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Hello Coubo, To answere your question I can lead you to a video that I did on PAET that explains my thinking on this subject. For now though I will explain with a chart.
You notice as in SFI that PAET put in a double bottom, and Like SFI the Volume on the last part of the draw down right before ground zero was much higher than the consolidation bottom or even a saucer bottom that followed on both charts. Notice the quiet (low) volume in both charts, these consolidations can last for some time. Now we already know that PAET is in its run-up phase (not the kind that just sky rockets) in this case price is rising up in levels or "Darva's Box's". The results are the same however a run-up is a run-up. PAET is now over $4.00 and getting ready for the next transition.
Not everyone see's this the same way as I do of course. I will just say that I have studied bottom formations for a long time. That is how Tobydad and I met. I have observed this same pattern on a lot of stocks that go on to great hights. Of course I have also profited from time to time using this method of analysis.
Let me know if you want me to post a link to the vid or if you have more questions.
Here is the chart for PAET
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Apsll: That chart is OLD. I'm looking at a daily recent chart of a V patterns. Resistance at 4.50.. Price now at 4.00 Granted the volume pattern looks better than SFI but going back to AGM's post about trend line, which both of these seem to fit, an entry now is way too late.
Don't get mad at me for questioning your analysis. I'm very sensitive.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Yes John well all sensitivity aside the chart for PAET is old. I scrolled back to what the chart looked like before the break-out came in early April of 2009. The last point that I forgot to address with Coubo is in reference to my comments about the volume not yet resolved.
I have come to believe Coubo that the high volume levels that we see to the left of and right at ground zero is accumulation mixed with selling pressure. In my opinion the volume is just to great to attribute to a selling climax. Now since all these shares have been accumulated (some at higher prices than tha actual bottom) and we do not see them being distributed in the consolidation phase. It just makes sense to me that the smart money are still holding their shares infact even buying more shares as the weaker holders get worn down by the sell off and the long consolidation. Of course the buying pressure has to be kept hush hush at these times so as not to attract unwanted attention as they continue bleeding all the shares that they can from weak holders.
They will make their move when they are ready as they did in early April with PAET.
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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Here are update charts to MPEL and SFI. I own MPEL and SFI not yet. MPEL actually looks to be at a good buy point right now.
CRXL found its way onto my radar when i was just flicking thru charts and my interest peaked by the predictable and symmetric look of its downtrend. Applying my best amatuer EW analysis. I felt the fifth wave was just about done and bought some 10 days ago at 19.24. If it can break the trend line and pull back it may be a buy again. Volume is not enthusiastic yet, however.
Apsll.....i understand what you said about the low volume flush out bottoming period. I am not yet in your class when it comes to patience of waiting out long bottoms. I am however trying to put more of those types into a watchlist and KEEP WATCHING IT.....i have a very bad habit of creating tons of list and then never revisiting them due to work, time, life....etc etc.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Howdy Coubo. Nice to see you again. I hope that you will contribute more often. I enjoy your analysis and your ability to find nice charts. I will have to re-think my selection process if MPEL breaks out of its cage here. I also find my self moving away from TSV& Money stream and I moved away from BOP a little while ago. I will also re-think giving credit to such long term divergencies on the weekly charts.
I like it when a new member steps up and shows that they have the Mojo; although you are not really new, since you have been a member here longer than I have. Why so quiet all those years?
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Yes I almost forgot: Free Stock Charts (the wordens new sofware) has a feature where you can set alerts on any given chart with trend lines. If price breaks the line then you will recieve an e-mail alert.
It has already paid off for me... DLX on Monday night I slaped a trendline right above the high of $18.99 although I placed the line at $19.00 I recieved the alert yesterday.
Like you I have to many watch-lists. I would re-visit them only to find that I had missed some good opportunities...
I will show you how to set the alarms if you need me to..
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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To be honest i have traded off and on for about ten years. I am posting now because I really want to find out if trading can become a significant source of income for me. Now in my mid forties I want to control my own finances. Going it alone tends to lead me into lazy habits like making cool scans and watchlists but never acting on them to get the pay off. So by posting and staying engaged hopfully i'll pick up things, and maybe form a small support group to collaborate with. Presently I work during trading hours. So I scan and research from Fri-Sun and then act on trade plans during the week.
I have accounts at Thinkorswim and interactivebrokers and can trade by web phone during the day but cannot watch live charts. In a way it is actually helping me so far not watching live charts because it keeps me to my thought out plans and avoids the impulsivenes to "make a trade".
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Haven't messed around with free charts. Is there any advantage compared to TC..
Apsll Please post the info about setting alarms. I'll try it out. What is it something like if a certain price is met, you get a notice?
I went to the worden seminar in cincinnati a few months ago and they basically said that TC is maxxed out. That is why they are directing all new members to SF.
I got on platinum to check out the backscanner, but how can one test scenarios thru the crash, or thru the quick recovery, and if you go back thru the years, it seems that what do those times have to do with todays times? So many things have changed in the past 2 years that history has never seen before.
I'm no market historian, but I would think that this crash and recovery is totally different than any other. I don't think that the government ever became so involved in the private sector.
Found myself kind of moving over toward T.D.'s methods of getting in a little earlier, not picking bottoms, but just a little sooner. Do my own selections though, got to do your own thing. Went back and read Mr. Wordens, Street Smart Chart Reading,,, " wait for the worst day when everything looks terrible and then go for it". If it doesn't work out then I just send Mr Worden a bill for my losses and he reimburses me. Hey, it's all in who you know.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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If you ever want to talk about charts on the week ends then let me know. I also view my charts at nights and week ends. I use skype to discuss ideas with friends and we can look at each others screens.
Hey John, Yes I can share that with you. I have a chart below that helps me to illistrate. You plot an "H' line and move it where you want it to be. You then left click on the line and it gives you three options. Edit, Set alert, Remove....The edit gives you the ability to fine tune the actual price and color features. Set Alert lets you make notes and set time limits.
That is pretty easy. Then when the price breaches the line you get an alert in your default e-mail. I set this one just now at $3.00 
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Joined: 2/21/2007
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Thanks, I'll go over there this weekend and mess around . I really hope that T.D.'s prognosis about Wordens dumping TC is wrong. But it sure sounds logical.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"There is more to life than posting charts 24/7."
===========================
Yes, theres chasing after them.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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We are surronded by Cynics............. Diceman I noticed on my visit to FTV recently that you are making stock picks discussing your tading. You must also be looking at charts.
We are not good enough for you over here? I have never been witness to you picking stocks to the right side of the chart. What gives???
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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There stock discusson going here?
hhmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
All I see is a lot of fighting. (and pretending I wont)
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Well at least Diceman is a gold member. Some credibility can be given to him. There is just something about reading too much into just a "registered users" thread.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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Not enough time for pics tonight but I like:
SFI
RTIX- on a pullback area 3.7-3.5
GIGM - watching only, Still in down channel.looks like its starting to show a heartbeat.
RXii - posted by fpetry
MDZ, TVL - two of APSll bottom beauties
i'm still holding
crxl and mpel
also shorted SP500 thru SDS.....just a flier on being up 7 in a row.
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 26
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couple trade set ups for next week
test
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'd go short on these but not long. I guess it depends on your time frame.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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How are you Coubo? Nice to see you over here again. I would say in past times that I love the chart for GIGM. However I have been studying some good works lately and I have had an awakening. Maybe folks like Davidjohnhall and Diceman will say "it is about time" but bottom feeding is not the way to catch the most efficient run on a given trend. I used to think that if one could get in on the bottom then they could ride it up to the moon. Looking back on my trades however; this has very rarely been the case. Most of the time I will buy on these bottom break-outs and then sell within a week or two with my profit only to find months later that I missed the bigger picture.
The price action is much slower in the bottoms initial break-out than it is once a trend has been established. This is the way to the greater yields. To find stocks that have already broken out and then pulled back and then consolidated. You might have to wait months for a real trend to develop. Why wait when you can find the stocks that are already running hard and fast. There are ways to enter the stocks that are like a run-away train and the profits accumulate much faster.
Hopefully some folks that trade these stocks will chime in and give their opinions on this as I am still in the study phase. We will discuss this further in the group.
Apsll.
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