apsll, I hope you do not take this as criticism as I do not want to start trouble by getting you angry, but take this as a different way to trade. this is my opinion on how to trade stocks like rgr.

the time to buy this has already came and gone. you need to brush up on your trend lines and pay less attention to support and resistance. I promise you will make a lot more money if you do. it's not really all that hard to do. just scan or search for pullbacks that are in the process of a higher swing low and draw the trend line where applicable and put them in a watch list. if you are trading daily, then each day check for price breaking that trend line. you will not win then all but the ones that you do will look similar to this marked up rgr chart, almost a 10% winner already.

the reward to risk is very high in your favor. I have been trading like this for several years and it is very profitable. like tobydad says, it is one of the simplest (which usually equals best) ways to trade a pattern like this one.

you do not have to abandon your method; just do not overlook the obvious trend lines

Well coubo,

It's obvious to me what AGM is talking about. If you are not capable of understanding how to draw simple trend lines, then maybe you should not be trading.

It is not that important to me but funnymony show me the 50% retrace. I see a 100% retrace and a fool that would have held all through the retrace, then the two month consolidation and finally as price whent up to challenge the ressistance. Please stop spewing for the sake of just taking the apposing side that I am on and showing your lack of ability.

Agm32 I still do not want any trouble but why don't you just start your own threads that demonstrate your prowess with trading the trend breaks. Coubo is right that it is more effective to put yourself on the line by making your own stock picks and letting the forum see the end result. I have done this many times. Not always with great results but in most cases they do. It is a proven strategy for one to buy during the "run-up" phase. Instead of attempting to discredit the theory why not spend the time showing us how well your strategies work. I say this not to fight but to give you the chance to prove yourself.

Tobydad is right that there is more than one way to trade. Just let me make my stock picks and see what happens, good or bad I will live with the results.

I only need make one more point on this matter. I will use Agm32's own trend line breaks as an example. In my chart below I show when he would have bought on the trendline break at .73 and when he would have sold on the draw down trend line break on 2/04/08 

Dryfuss just saying that I am wrong is no proof. You need to show a detailed argument with charts and coherant analysis.

My only point in this matter is that of wich Tobydad speaks to that we all have our own methods for trading stocks. Tobydad is a proven success at buying the bottom bounces. I like to play the momentum runs that break through ressistance. 

Here is a chart that shows the trend breaks on this stock. Agm32 could have shorted this stock on the trendline line break draw down. Since he is adept at timing the breaks so well than why not play them both ways?

let me clear up some confusion about how I would have traded this stock.

if I had to trade for the sake of argument then apsll would have been correct on one thing. I would have sold on a second trend line break at about .85

but apsll I wish to again point out that you are over looking the power of trend line breaks. while the stock was consolidating, I would have drawn a horizontal line at the high on jan 31 and feb 29 and also a horizontal line of the low on feb 12, 13, 21, mar 10, and 19. remember that consolidating stocks will usually break one trend line or the other. in this case price it broke the upper trend line on higher volume. I would have entered a long trade again on mar 25 at about .98 on another trend line break.

first you say that I do not post charts, and then you welcome my opinion, now you are upset again. I am trying to help new people as tobydad has suggested. Why are you so against trend lines? or is it just me you are against? you are trying to make this into a pi$$ing match. I am just suggesting a way to trade that you do not show to help new people.

and yes I do think you need to brush up on your trend lines. of the many charting tools available, the trend line is most widely used by technicians. they are money in the bank.

"I think we may have a number of people not really listening to one another."
==================================================

You expect Leopards to change their spots? (heh, heh)

I find it hard to believe anyone bought anything.
Folks are showing charts from Feb/March 2009 however, they don't show the emotion.

Remember when everyone knew of the coming 1000, 2000 point decline?
Remember when folks were asking why anyone would be bullish?
Remember when folks said their TA had failed them?
Remember when they talked of waiting for calmer waters?
Remember when I was called a liar for talk of buying on March 9,10?
Remember when I put up list of stock returns tobydad and I had mentioned. (it was called bragging)
Remember when I compared the performance to March 2003 and was warned of the retracement?
Remember when Ben was ridiculed  for being bullish?

On 2/19/2010 you can draw all the purdy trendlines you like.
Making me think you had the guts (or open mind) to pull the trigger.
Lets just say that's another story.

I only believe tobydad, and davidjohnhall were buying.
(of course folks who don't spend their time bragging here may have also)

You see.
That's what a reputation/credibility is.

Thanks
diceman

I am not against trend lines. I use them in some of my analysis, not all. I do have a problem with you but we can keep it melow so as not to get the thread locked. Infact I like it when you are not spinning your self serving statements such as that I should not focus so much on support & resistance but instead I should learn more about trend lines. This kind of discussion can be of benefit to new traders so on that we agree.

First off in this chart I show how one can just pick a stock and make a living trading nothing else but the trend line breaks, first long and then short. Of course this is past history so I am sure to the new trader that (like you said) it all looks very easy. Keep it simple right....


When I asked you to post charts I had more in mind of you sharing current real time or even end of day data. I mention already that I could post hundreds of past charts and show how I would have traded them. This is a point that you do not seem to want to address.

We are in complete agreement that the best way to play a consolidation is to draw a trendline above (resistance)and below (support) to see wich way the stock will break. You have made my most important point for me, thank you. You will be able to research many many posts by me where I say exactly that.

I studied charts for five to six years before I even made my first trade. Mostly for educational purposes but also to raise capital other than my realestate and retirement holdings. I have been at the chart analysis thing for 14 to 15 years now. You think that at some point I studied trend lines. 

95 out of 100 people that take up trading fail at it. The reason that the five become successfull is because they have found their niche.  They apply their own unique personality; some settle into using fundimental analysis and others settle on technical analysis. Those that are technical and rely on charts do not all trade the same way. Some are counter trend traders, others are trend traders, Some like to study Eliot Wave while others rely on indicators. You like to trade trend line breaks to time the bottoms and the tops. I trade momentum stocks that are making new highs and I also like to bottom fish (looking for stocks that I believe are breaking out of their bottom formations into the run-up). So just because I do not trade like you do and the chart from above does not mean that I do not understand trend line breaks. I understand MACDH but I choose not to use it, I understand trend line breaks but I choose not to trade that way.

I understand that you and I are not in competition. If you can trad the trend lines as well as you say you can then I probably would not be able to compete with you. I cannot bottom feed as well as Tobydad does but I do not challenge him in his threads. You chose to challenge my trading style in favor of trading the trend line break. I only ask why you would do this? I actually know why but we are keeping things melow so I will not go there.

I hope that I have addressed all your points. I do not need to brush up on my skills to use a tool that I choose not to use in favor of my own style of trading. Next time you want to chime in on one of my threads then you are welcome. Instead of making statments that I need to trade the way you do, why not instead say "hey Apsll I like that trend line break last month. I wish that I had seen this stock back then". You see how I would not take offense to that? Then you could post a chart saying that "this is a chart that I am currently looking at, and when the trend line breaks then I will buy this stock". I would not take offense, I might even engage you in a meaningfull dialog for the benefit of the new traders.

Lastly. Are you aware of how many folks read these posts but are to afraid to speak up for fear of being ridiculed by you or bigblock. I know this because (to my detriment) I recieve a lot of emails (maybe I should not have shared my address). I do get some nasty ones but I also get a lot of good ones. Also folks that I talk with on skype have a problem with giving their opinions based on the same fears. folks like coubo are not afraid to speak up. I have doubts about the non registered members such as "Dryfess" and a few other characters that pop up from time to time.

That is all I have to say. I hope that all our future dialog will be as easy as this one.

Apsll.











 

if you are going to paint a picture then by all means let's use some of your brush strokes. and this is just from this thread.

"I see a 100% retrace and a fool that would have held all through the retrace"

"Well thats two people that do not actually trade"

"I cannot wait for your book to come out"

"I will waste no more time with the two of you"

"they are full of it"

"We all know that you do not know how though"

and then you have the gall to say something like this

"Are you aware of how many folks read these posts but are to afraid to speak up for fear of being ridiculed by you or bigblock"

The trend line is mostly used by technicians"     Thanks for that AGM

APS:   LIGHTEN UP.    TAKE SOME PROZAC.  YOU  DO THIS ALL THE TIME WHEN SOMEONE REFUTES ANY STATEMENT THAT YOU MAKE.   I DON'T RECALL ANY ABSOLUTE RULES OR METHODS THAT WORK ALL THE TIME AND OR FOR EVERYONE.