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Joined: 1/28/2006
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As the World Turns
Here we have a situation where nothing untoward or strange happened in the markets. And it is most certain that markets DO NOT move on news. They followed a predictable pattern, and hit (or came near to hitting (on the SP-500) the 250 period average on the 9day charts after testing the 1130 support zone (short term) and the 1034/35 intraday supports on the futs.
Macd for the past two 9day periods has been negative and we've been mildly divergent during this entire recent run up from mid november. Divergent markets have a nasty habit of outlasting ones capital if one stands infront of the train. Mild divergence can disappear leaving you with......a sheepish look on your face.
We made new lows below the 2001-2003 timeframe...and only time will tell if we have made a failed new low. Personally, I see us only in a slip zone between two major time frames and am only playing issues in the moment. The down turn priced by gold was only 1/3 of the bottoms of prior serious downturns...so I wouldn't go cheering just yet. The Ox has umbered upward...now we need to see what the Tiger has in store for him at the crest of this most recent hill.
Newbies...read the discussion threads for nuggets and avoid the daily reports.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'll have to disagree; the daily reports can be priceless. Bear in mind, they are written by humans. Can we expect them to take us to the heights with each edition? Let's give Mr. Worden the same grace which we would appreciate were we the one writing a daily report on the markets. While I cannot call myself a daily devoted reader, I always scan them and have, many times, been astounded at the depths of Mr. Worden's insights.
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Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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I agree with tobydad - shocker! What are you looking for in the report that you're not finding, awshucks? You have the trend table - don't need much more than that - and Mr. Worden's thoughts on the current environment. When you watch the news are you looking to see predictions for the news next week? No, you'regetting highlights of the day's events with a slant towards that channel's perspective. Same here. I enjoy reading the nightly report and it's just about the only thing I do read from an outside source. The real insight should come from you. Other perspectives are just that.David John Hall
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I'm not sure what the fuss is about?
10-11-07 was the top.
3-6-09 was the low.
8-17-10 is the next top.
Pretty obvious if you ask me.
There's disagreement?
Who's gonna win the SuperBowl?
Now your talkin tuff.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Well, if you think you can do better and challenge old man Worden, then all I have to say is good luck. Can't wait till the Awshucks Telechart platinum makes it's debut.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (diceman) I'm not sure what the fuss is about? 10-11-07 was the top.
3-6-09 was the low.
8-17-10 is the next top. Pretty obvious if you ask me.
There's disagreement? Who's gonna win the SuperBowl?
Now your talkin tuff.
Thanks
diceman Colts.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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To my detractors...you are quite welcome to your opinion. However an objective view from anyone who has been doing this for awhile (TA), and who has been glancing at the reports for awhile (with a view to finding something unique) would come to the same conclusions. It is my opinion that there has been little of any value posted in the daily reports since 3/17/2009....and the Trend Table is the worst schlock one can find.
I stick by the opinion that the daily report has degraded to the level of 'fluff' and the newcomer would be better off digging through the discussion thread as they begin their journey into what is minimally valid and largely invalid in the land of technical analysis and the reality in and of 'markets'.
TobyDad...please do list all the comments made by Worden that knocked your socks off from a technical analysis point of view. We would likely all benefit from said. I see none, so enlighten me.
davidjohnhall - When you are watching 'the news' you are watching 99% lie...so you really should refrain from linking the Wordens to a news cast. Worst still...making something that should be quantitative into something qualitative. Another shortcoming of the report.
To the poster who somehow thinks I'm a detractor of Wordens programs...you can't read for content.
As for 'doing better'...question the underpinnings of the Enneagram and the philosophical underpinnings of the success of the New Harmony settlement in the 1800's (aside from their 'work work work pray pray pray' mantra). Your trading will improve. As always...only seekers find.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/22/2006
Posts: 100
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If the Worden Report was so wrong, wouldn't we all just fade it.
Since the Worden Report is what it is, an option of a very experienced market technician. Someone who has way more experience and market knowlegde than I will ever aquire. I use it for food for thought only. I'm sure not going all in on anyone's opinion, including mine.
I've learned more from all of you here in the Worden Forums than from reading the nightly report, even from the debates as heated as they can get. Sometimes even those Knight's methods give an idea or two worth investigating, as sketchy as they usualy are.
The main thing I took from reading Mr. Wordens comments: Think For Yourself.
Enjoy your Day All.
william
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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I often do fade it william, but thats beside the point. If you believe that anyone has more experience and insight than you will ever aquire, then you are lost before you are begun.
I like Einsteins perception regarding ability in any particular field...that it is not predicated by the number of letters behind ones name...but solely by dint of time spent and holy grails questioned.
Those who claim that there is no holy grail to trading are wrong. There are holy grails which you have accepted from childhood that constrain your abilities to question as adults in the markets. There are many holy grails at work in the markets that are used against you. 'Think for yourself' is indeed a key to removing impediments.
My comment was not on Wordens technical abilities, but on content. On content...the report has been fluff for some time. I'm not diplomatic when it comes to discourse, but perhaps my comment may stir some action and result in some posts worthy of a good platform. If that occurs, then we all benefit...regardless of tact/lack of said.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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Awshucks, I'm not sure this is worth pursuing given the clear affront that you have assumed. Please be assured, I meant no offense to you. Conversely, you took it upon yourself to affront someone else and I thought it nothing more than gentlemanly to offer an alternative perspective. Beyond that, I have no interest in this contest that you propose. Your apparent sarcasm (and I sincerely apologize if I have misread that) precludes the likelihood of value deriving from this conversation. All that said, I've been very interested to see the number of times Mr. Worden called it right concerning near term market direction.
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Tobydad...I took no umbrage and I was not being sarcastic. As such, I appreciate and accept your apology at face value. I was not establishing 'a contest'...I was hoping you would highlight the nuggets, so to speak. It should be easy for you...given the many times and the depth of insight. If you do not wish to...I understand, truly.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Awshucks,
What are you looking for from the report?
Stock picks?
Furture market direction?
Why the market is moving in the current direction?
Strong sectors?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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I'm looking for unique input (either from Worden or Knights, Pages...perhaps even Villains?). This is, when all is said and done, a platform based on that which may be measured. Perhaps a provision of the probative proof regarding the application of Dow Theory and/or breadth to markets would also be illuminating. Anything really, other than the long dry spell.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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" Perhaps a provision of the probative proof regarding the application of Dow Theory and/or breadth to markets would also be illuminating."
What makes you believe someone (who doesnt) would belive the "proof"?
The beauty of the human condition is that I can tell folks I went long
in early March and still have them question my sanity.
(the danger diceman, the danger)
Even knowing what's happened.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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The essence of dialogue is that proof is usually noted in the midrash (that which is never stated). However, as I've said....at least it would be a something, rather than a nothingess.
A beauty in exposition would be Mr Worden having you post your reasoning for going long in early March, to the extent you would agree to any such inquiry. Again, it would be better than nothing.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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As to proof. The only valid proof is...that which returned the expected outcome (the good) in the past, in the present, and in the future. By that measure, both breadth and Dow Theory lag or are invalidated, take your pick.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"The essence of dialogue is that proof is usually noted in the midrash (that which is never stated)."
That may be the "essence of dialogue" but its not the essence of the markets.
In the markets facts and proofs are in the eye of the beholder.
Tobydad can post stocks that go up here for the next decade and if folks choose not to believe
him or his methods they will just call him "lucky".
We get to explain away truths in the prison that's between our ears.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
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There is only One Law...and all your denial is just that. Enjoy your own prison.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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awshucks; I should have asked this at the very beginning: Have you ever interacted with Mr. Worden directly? Have you every presented your proposition to him face to face, vis a vis, email to email?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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I have, by the way, and I submit to you that he is, at once, respectful, insightful and highly intelligent. He knows what he is doing with his Worden Report and why.
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My opinion stands tobydad. You have yours.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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I'll take that as a "No, I have not confronted him personally." I should not have entered the conversation until recommending that you should have done that first. I'm unsure as to what you were expecting to accomplish; but, at this point, the conversation has clearly become counterproductive.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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By the way, my only opinion, is that you should not derogate someone in public without  first-hand knowledge that it is in the best interest of others to do so and  without first giving the party in question opportunity to answer for him or herself privately. You will, doubtless, say to me that you were trying to help others ("newbies" as you put it) but, truly, I will be astounded if you actually believe that anyone is injured by reading the Worden Report. No argument that there may be better material to read, but I think most would find it a far stretch to call the Worden Report damaging or misleading.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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OK, well now we all know that Google Chrome does not work well with the Worden dot com. The smiley face emoticon was intended to be the letter a in parentheses and the mug of beer ??? was intended as the letter b in parentheses. Sure takes the thunder out of one's bold statements, does it not? Life is just too funny.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"There is only One Law.."
Thats the problem awshucks.
The folks who claim this never ever prove it.
They just claim it.
(and have contempt and scorn for thjose who disagree)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Well Awshucks, perhaps then you will astonish us with your remarkable daily market insight while we wait for Mr. Worden to be replaced by a more experienced market technician? And while you are at it, I assume you won't mind posting some real time trades so that I can track your progress. Even Mr. Worden at times, concludes that forces beyond his comprehension move the markets in ways that boggle even the most seasoned market analysts. Until then, I anxiously await your next Knightly contribution.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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I'm looking for unique input (either from Worden or Knights, Pages...perhaps even Villains?).
Why are you looking for unique input? To be entertained? For trading ideas? Unhappy with your current trading performance?
This is, when all is said and done, a platform based on that which may be measured.
This is a charting program. A tool. A tool requires a user. Either a tool fits or does not fit the user. The performance of the tool is found in the relationship between the tool and the user and the experience of the user and the experience of the tool's designer. A submit that a good, experienced trader can make money using Worden or any other charting program. A trader who has yet to become profitable would not be able to make money using a NASA designed trading platform.
Perhaps a provision of the probative proof regarding the application of Dow Theory and/or breadth to markets would also be illuminating.
You have the charting program which includes Dow charts dating back to 1910. If you know how Dow theory works then you can create your own proof.
Anything really, other than the long dry spell.
Maybe the frustration is really with the market that is ambling upward currently making no real great strides. Since the volatility of 2008 has ended and the rally of March 2009 has tapred off, there isn't much going on index wise. I see lots going on individual stock wise but nothing on the level of what we saw during the rally off the bottom. I'll check the trend tables tonight to see when the various trends changed.
All in all, you ARE welcome to your opinion awshucks, no doubt, and you're welcome to dump Telechart if it's underperforming for you. No harm in that. I thought the thread title was in poor taste and as I had a different opinion thought I'd share. Because, as far as I can tell, "useless" and "useless to you" are two different things.
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Registered User
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Your snide, off topic comment is noted traderm30. The issue is the dearth of anything of any value on the daily commentary for quite some time...and perhaps the comment that news moves markets. Ha.
The issue regarding probative proof for the timeliness or even base application of breadth and Dow Theory was a suggestion for how to bring something to the table, not an attack on someones technical ability. I'll write your attempt at over emotionalization of an issue off to youth and leave it at that.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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DavidJohnhall....the markets make great strides intraday, and one learns to capture the up and the down.
The frustration is as I stated it. Nice try at putting words in someone elses mouth.
Again. Telechart is not the issue. The dearth of anything of any value in the daily report for quite some time is.
Stop shilling...you denegrate yourself by doing so.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
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Diceman - The folks making the claim survive all market environments...and they don't give up an edge.
Nothing stops you from investigating where Wyckoff, Gann and others basis of trading dovetails.
I have scorn (quite properly I might add) for those who wish to deride me for merely bringing up a valid point.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
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Nice try at putting words in someone elses mouth.
Awshucks, I didn't put words into anyones mouth. Those were my words. Opinions on your condition. Clearly stated. For you to read.
The dearth of anything of any value in the daily report for quite some time is.
I ask you again why you require value from the reports if you are so adept at capturing those ever elusive intraday strides? I am wondering why you cannot answer why you need the reports to be "useful"?
Stop shilling...you denegrate yourself by doing so.
Once again, your opinion. And you're welcome to it.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
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LOL I wonder if this thread is as "useful" as the nightly Worden repots. :)
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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Hardly, but such was not its intent.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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I hope that awshucks isn't Bigblock posting under a different alias. I always thought that Bigblock's market analysis insightful. Plus I would find it hard to believe that B.B. would insult Mr. Worden. B.B insults people he doesn't respect and people he thinks who pretend to know what they are talking about.
Tobydad should be put in charge of making peace for the entire world.
Awshucks you seem to be just an AS_ _OLE.
My version of being Tobydad.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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bigblock is not a Gold customer
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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plus all of bigblocks aliases are similar and instantly recognizable. Also, his english is not great, and uses words like 'especulate'
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Registered User
Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 38
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Let's get back to the holy grail, What could it possibly be? Is it at the bottom of the rainbow or did someone put is where the sun don"t shine?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I have scorn (quite properly I might add) for those who wish to deride me for merely bringing up a valid point."
=======================================================================
You've brought up what you feel is a valid point.
The problem is you've done nothing to convince me of your point.
You see, I want to be convinced by you.
(I love to question holy grails)
The problem is all you've offered is "empty" statements.
Here are some of the problems I have with this:
1) So far, this is your evidence:
"The only valid proof is...that which returned the expected outcome (the good) in the past, in the present,
and in the future. By that measure, both breadth and Dow Theory lag or are invalidated, take your pick."
You use terms like "lag" and "invalidated" without definition.
Lag what?
Lag how?
Invalidated how?
Invalidated compared to what?
In the Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators.
Robert Colby shows excellent returns in testing both Dow Theory
and measures of breadth.
(he also tests using technical indicators to define Dow Theory rather than the traditional methods)
2) I don't see why Mr. Worden should have to defend/prove technical analysis when it was
invented long before he was around.
Where do we stop?
If he puts a moving average on his chart should he defend that?
What about MACD?
All he's using are things that have been around long before him.
There's is an irony that Mr. Worden is supposed to prove technical analysis but folks don't
even prove their own statements.
(at least to me)
So you see its not the argument that I disagree with. Its the fact that there isn't one.
All we have is opinion.
(and empty, hollow, undefined statements as proof)
If you want to state: "I don't like Dow Theory".
If you want to state: "I don't belive breadth is a useful market indicator".
That's fine. That's your opinion. (and really has little to do with the Worden Report)
If you want me to believe you that's something else.
I need definitions, facts, evidence, proof.
There's an irony that the one who expects us to "question holy grails" expects us to
take what he says without evidence/proof.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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This guy is an idiot Diceman. He is attempting to come off as an intellectual. 30 posts later and we still don't understand what the question or complaint is about. Apparently his problem is with the lack of detail in the Worden report. To which I concur with him on that aspect. But again, this begs the question, should he have a problem with the lack of detail or the subject matter involved then perhaps he should look into other sources for his information.
As someone stated above, Telechart is not a stock picking service. Personally, I like reading the Worden report. At times I do not always agree with Worden's perspective. But it does, in my opinion, give you enough to chew on. To make things even more interesting, I don't consider myself a technical trader. I buy stocks based on valuations and the story of a company. I only use Telechart as a confirmation tool for certain buy and sell points.
So Awshucks hate to break it to you, but technicals don't drive the price of a stock or the market. I read the Worden reports for merely just another perspective on market actvity. I don't base my buy and sell decsions on what the market is doing. There are only a few times a year that present decent buying opportunities anyway.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This post is not to belabor the foregoing argument. Rather, I would like to give some credit (or, perhaps, display my amateurish level of ignorance) to Mr. Worden. I find information like the following to be useful to me in that it provides another trader's (a very experienced one at that) perspective on where we might find support in this decline/correction which we appear to be entering. awshucks may consider this to be useless information; I must grant him the privilege to think so. FWIW, "This market has been in a full Intermediate Uptrend since last March. Within Intermediate Uptrends, markets tend to fall into corrections of about ten percent fairly often. (This market has been unusually resistant to corrections since last March). It is common for these corrections to pull back to previous tops. The last top of any consequence was in October. So I'll be watching for the possibilities of Sub-Intermediate bottoms for the Major Averages coinciding, more or less, with the October tops. That might not be the actual scenario that unfolds, but as of now it is the best probability."
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