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Joined: 7/11/2009
Posts: 50
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I will listen to any one, but since Tobydad developed this system the question is for him,
If you will look at SOMX , I think this may fit your profile. I have been studying it for a couple days now and I am trying to see if I am close to understanding it.
If you scroll back to (9/4/09) there is a bullish candle sitting on LR30 just above LBB13. It goes sideways until today when TSV broke above UBB13. This is not necessarily how you describe it in your post but the Market doesn't always follow the rules, doe's it?
Really I'm just trying to learn and if you wouldn't mind helping Ithank you very much.
Jon
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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Jon, I think you've got it. Nice find, I like it very much. I like the way the indicators look and it fits the Guppy model as well. TD seems to go into hiding for a few days so I'll chat with you awhile, Looks like we're both trying to figure this out together, it's nice to have a study partner.
My question is about entry. TD puts in a conditional order 1 cent over the high of the day, I believe everyday after seeing signs like this. After goiing in on WAVE and watching it dive 6% yesterday I think I'll stick to my rules==I generally put in a stop limit order after a bullish candal if the stock goes over at least 1% of the HOD. APSII talked about waiting for a nice 'open candle and there may be some benefit to that. I'm watching for a buy sign and learning. I'd prefer to have the futures cooperate though. AVNR is one of Tobys old ones, it has a similar pattern.
Jean
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Registered User
Joined: 7/11/2009
Posts: 50
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Jean (I hope thats OK)
Thank you for your kind words. I went back and actually after looking again, thought that it did not fit.
Volume is still high, and it never broke out below the LBB20. I need to train my eyes better.
Yes it does seem like tobydad likes very close stops. That is something I need to learn.
I don't know any thing about futures. maybe you could throw me a pointer or two. I don't even know where to look them up.
I am not going to buy this one but I will watch it. Others I have noticed that may be close are
ADSK
EWBC
DBC
Let me know what you think. (these I think just bear watching, not necessarily ripe)
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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Jon, I'll try to answer some of your questions. Keep in mind I'm a Newbie,
I'll give it a try on SOMX--Tobydad please let me know if I'm off on this.
Price decreased on lower volume which is good. You want volume and a 'show of strength'. Volume is over MA 6 on 09/18, good volume on 7/23.
LBB20 it broke through that on 07/08
BOP is very good
TSV 26 is above 0 and above UBB13
Looking at MS, there is steady accumulation in the stock
There's nearby resistance around 3.30
and TD talks about a candle 'nestled between UBB 13 and UBB20' as a 'comfortable and profitable'. Whether this will languish on the LL30 line or break out I don't know.
A bullish candle would be nice.
So for me it fits. That being said I can't predict what it will do from here.
Futures== If I want company in the morning I listen to Carl, Becky and Joe on CNBC. The futures roll at the top. When I can't stand that anymore I look at CNN business/ premarket for futures or CNBC page. I don't go in if they are either very high or low as I'm afraid of whipsaws. Right now I prefer to sit back a bit as we had a nice run and the market does not like uncertainty I'm more cautious. With the Fed meeting for 2 days and the G-20 coming up that creates some uncertainty.
The IBD big picture feature also gives me a fairly accurate view of where we are.
Martha from Technitrader is on twitter and is frequently right on about the state of the market, this was from today " Sell short momentum is non-existent. Selling is still profit taking not sell shorters. Institutions quietly accumulating on flat days. ' I think she is a very good teacher. I think her course is excellent and they do provide good support.
Well that's enough for now I just learned alot reviewing that. So thank you for the opportunity.
I'll look at the others later.
Keep looking at the charts, bracketing back and playing the old ones as if you didn't know what was going to happen. That is good practice and you'll find that you are right much of the time after awhile, especially if you have a sense of the language of the candles.
Jean
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Registered User
Joined: 7/11/2009
Posts: 50
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Jean,
Sorry about the delay in my reply. I mentioned that I was having problems with the discussion board.
Anyway, thank you for your insight into these symbols. I have Been looking at charts and I thought that NATL might be something but it dropped today. I noticed on tobydads screen OBV had fallen pretty low. He does mention that on low volume price drops to the LBB20. He didn't say anything specifically about OBV (unless I just missed it). Do you know how important a part OBV plays in the setup?
I have ordered two books by O'Neil. The books l have been reading focus on the psycology of trading I am trying to find good books on the technical aspect.
Hope your having a great day!
Jon
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (jandriotis)
I will listen to any one, but since Tobydad developed this system the question is for him,
If you will look at SOMX , I think this may fit your profile. I have been studying it for a couple days now and I am trying to see if I am close to understanding it.
If you scroll back to (9/4/09) there is a bullish candle sitting on LR30 just above LBB13. It goes sideways until today when TSV broke above UBB13. This is not necessarily how you describe it in your post but the Market doesn't always follow the rules, doe's it?
Really I'm just trying to learn and if you wouldn't mind helping Ithank you very much.
Jon
Jon,
You could buy here if you don't mind the risk. If the market doesn't dive, a buy Monday would be a relatively high percentage play (also if you don't mind waiting a week or so).
But if you want more security, definitely wait for everything to align, ie be sure the price candle is bullish and sitting on the LR30 with tsv26 above the 0 line and heading up.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Jean;
I haven't studied every word of your commentary to Jon but I must say, you're quite the student. Nice job!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (sailnadream) Jon, I think you've got it. Nice find, I like it very much. I like the way the indicators look and it fits the Guppy model as well. TD seems to go into hiding for a few days so I'll chat with you awhile, Looks like we're both trying to figure this out together, it's nice to have a study partner.
My question is about entry. TD puts in a conditional order 1 cent over the high of the day, I believe everyday after seeing signs like this. After goiing in on WAVE and watching it dive 6% yesterday I think I'll stick to my rules==I generally put in a stop limit order after a bullish candal if the stock goes over at least 1% of the HOD. APSII talked about waiting for a nice 'open candle and there may be some benefit to that. I'm watching for a buy sign and learning. I'd prefer to have the futures cooperate though. AVNR is one of Tobys old ones, it has a similar pattern.
Jean
Jean;
Since you're working so diligently on this, let's talk about WAVE a little more. I've looked at the chart and don't understand why you entered WAVE (not saying that was bad, just want to understand your reasoning) and why you were disappointed.
Do you want to discuss this?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/27/2009
Posts: 10
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I like to discuss your profile Tobydad. I think that your "rationale" is about to expire.
In the last 6 months, basically any profile has worked.
What do you think - buddy?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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Nice catch TD, and thank you for the challenge and support, Teacher.
I jumped the gun on WAVE, trying to catch it early. I'm still holding, maybe foolishly, certainly uncomfortably. My theory was that it would bounce off the LR30 on the first touchdown. I noticed this happening to others. I also notice the waves as these early flags repeatedly touch the LR30 and then retreat., making this philosophy pretty risky. Still I'm quite curious as to your going in on something like DPTR again while it is under the LR30 before it completes the TD profile. Could you expound.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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I went into WAVE also with the Guppy model in mind. The lines were in a nice solid formation on 09/17.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Cornel1810;
Welcome, I see that you are new to the forum.
And welcome to America, I see that you are new to grammar. People that speak English would say, "I'd like to discuss...". I hope that helps.
Now on to your question, yes, you are right. It's a good question. Of course, we all realize that you have asked it because you are obviously new to trading. You see, we have been in what's called a bull market of late; so, almost any trading style has worked well. This is quite normal.
Thank you for your question and, please, don't hesitate to ask if you need any further help...either with trading or grammar.
And, sure, "buddy" will be fine if that's what you'd like to call me.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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TD--ignore him--
This is so enticing. He gives a chance at dueling, one up man ship, a chance to be cleaver.
Forgive him he's got to be hurting to be this angry.
Peace is more important.
Let it go
Back to my questions please----
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Jean;
If you look at my history, you will see that I rarely respond to Bigblock or those of his ilk. I have attempted for years to convince everyone to ignore him. Some simply refuse to do so. Then the battles escalate.
I offer my meager attemtps at humor as an alternative and hope that those that cannot resist doing battle will realize that there are better ways to vent. If they are not going to eskew the vitriolic, perhaps they can, at least, take up humor as their weapon.
I do not engage in the one-up-manship nor do I concern myself with being clever I have no need to forgive for he has not injured me. And I am certainly not capable of one-upping anybody.
Thank you for attempting to bring reason to the forum at times like this.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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As to your question, pursuing repurchase right now is part of the way I trade. Frequently, a stock will make a first run up, then pull back, sometimes that is because of institutional buyers accumulating a position (which I have discussed before although Diceman, Intothetrade, funnymony, Realitycheck and some others could provide far better info than I).
After an initial run up, I don't always wait for the chart to take the look of what you are thinking of as the classic profile. There is quite a bit more to it. I've gone into it in quite some detail in much older posts but, alas, they are in some archives somewhere at this point.
My time is very limited (in fact, we would usually be in a worship gathering at this time but several of the kids aren't feeling well). I'll give info when I am able. Of course, I can't do comprehensive coaching in the scope of this forum.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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Tobydad, I appologize for singling you out. I appreciate your approach with humor. It certainly can difuse things at times. I think that at other times it may keep things going. I wish we could find a way to nip this in the bud. It was so peaceful here this week. Much better environment for learning.
Thank you for returning to my question. I'll continue to work on what I'm studying now. I have a lot to read. Thanks for all your time. I really appreciate it. At a later date I may search around for what you are talking about in the previous threads.
Hope your children are feeling better.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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By the way, on the subject of the run up then pull back, many times this is happening to shake out the weak handed traders who are unsure of their own approach to trading. So, price rises on high volume, elation and buying ensues, then price pulls back on waning volume as the institutional trader pulls out because they have purchased all that they intend to for the moment (they will accumulate their position slowly so the price does not go out of control), sometimes they will sell off a bit of their position to help drive price back down, people like you and me sell off because we think we made a mistake, only for the price to rocket back up either a few days or a few weeks later.
Again, this is why I like my style of trading, I am able to buy very low, which means it is not far away from a support level. So i don't have to go far to get to my stop. I'm not risking much. (A good rule of thumb is risking no more than 1 or 2% of your total portfolio on any one trade).
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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One last thought for now, Jean, there is really no way that I can tell to stop the debates because there are one or two people that come here with the express idea of creating trouble. Then there are one or two who absolutely refuse to ignore that.
So, most of the time, I just ignore it. But every now and then, I just have some fun. It's not to fix or exacorbate the problem, it's just for my own fun. So, I offer your advice back to you with respect to my verbal recreation, just ignore me. :)
Good trading.
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Joined: 12/9/2005
Posts: 24
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I seldom post (as you can see) because I seldom feel I have anything to share, but....I've recently found something that may be of use to those of us who have found Tobydad's posts, that he so gracefully shares, useful.In the Stockfinder's workbook there is a chart setup for 'Bouncing off the Bottom Band'. It seems ideally suited to narrowing quickly the vast universe of stocks to some of the ones suitable for the now famous Tobydad Profile. I hope some of you find it useful. I only wish there was an easy way to flag & import stock lists from Stockfinder to Telechart like there is from Telechart to Stockfinder.By the way Tobydad, thanks for all that you do on this forum. I for one have gained a lot from your many detailed and unselfish posts.Toby
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Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (pkbldr) I seldom post (as you can see) because I seldom feel I have anything to share, but....I've recently found something that may be of use to those of us who have found Tobydad's posts, that he so gracefully shares, useful.In the Stockfinder's workbook there is a chart setup for 'Bouncing off the Bottom Band'. It seems ideally suited to narrowing quickly the vast universe of stocks to some of the ones suitable for the now famous Tobydad Profile. I hope some of you find it useful. I only wish there was an easy way to flag & import stock lists from Stockfinder to Telechart like there is from Telechart to Stockfinder.By the way Tobydad, thanks for all that you do on this forum. I for one have gained a lot from your many detailed and unselfish posts.Toby
Here is an untried idea: Use the Export capability of stocfinder to create a csv file. In a realcode indicator use the rule that qualifies the symbols for the proposed watchlist and just export the lastbar if the rule is true. A nice concise list is create, 1 line per symbol.
'# cond = condition.whatever
If islastbar andalso _
cond.value = true then
plot = price.close
else
plot = single.nan
endif
You can then cut and paste column 1 from Excel into a telechart watchlist create window.
A mechanical approach, not as automated as one would like, but workable.
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Joined: 12/31/2005
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By the way to export an existing watchlist you could eliminate the condition qualifier
If islastbar then
plot = price.close
else
plot = single.nan
endif
This will post a line for every item in the watchlist.
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Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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I've been noticing that after a TD profile stock rests on the LR30 it will often surge and then give back. I was in WSTL recently and I see that it jumped 16% on 9/16, then retreated. I notice that it is now at about the same price in which it surged before on 09/16 and 08/05. It is also resiting on BB10 and the 50 day line. I notice that BB10 has been acting pretty much as support for the stock. Does this seem a reasonable rational to get in prior to getting support from the LR30? I'd prefer an engulfing candle but this one seems bullish enough to me. What do you think? I think I've talked myself into buying this tomorrow.
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