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If you would like to see a near perfect tobydad profile, this is it. Looks nice. And I'd say this has very serious potential over the next few months.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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Apologies, the ticker is PACR...not sure what I was doing with that extra "I".
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I like this one as well Tobydad. It not only fits your profile but mine as well.
I have been told that I do not give enough supporting data in my analysis so in my chart bellow I have given it all I can. Maybe in the future I will just limit my response to those that I agree with. When I am not aligned with others interpretations it seems that they do not appreciate my brand of critique.
I like how PACR is sporting this nice VSA accumulation bottom. TSV is above zero and showing possitive divergence on all time frames. I especially like the weekly chart. There is high institutional support and low debt (these are the only fundimentals that matter to me).
The volume pattern appears to be one of accumulation and price is at a bargain within its range.
Good find Tobydad. I will be watching this one.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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thanks for the heads-up, Tobydad.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Well Apsll let me apologize for all the attacks I've done over VSA.
You know telling you it doesn't work telling you don't use it.
We've simply have got to be more open minded.
"Maybe in the future I will just limit my response to those that I agree with."
The only problem with that is in the past we've decided:
moving averages don't work
indicators don't work
scaling in doesn't work
Demark doesn't work
IBD doesn't work
mechanical systems don't work
fundamentals don't work
I'm running out of things to talk about.
Folks simply have to learn to be more open minded like you and I.
Acceptance of others is the only way we can find common ground
good buddy.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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Diceman please; you are going to get us both banned. I told you that you revealed to me who you are. I know what you are attempting to do. Let us just go our seperate ways.
I use moving averages in Bull markets.
I understand that indicators are usefull tools for sorting and scaninning only
I do not subscribe to published tading systems or believe in pure mechanical approaches.
Most fundimentals (IMO) are meaningless.
This is how I trade. Sometimes based on market conditions I will amend my thinking and change my strategy. So if it appears that I contradict myself it is more that I have changed my opinion over the years and no longer subscribe to things that I used to, or the Markets are just different so I need to adapt.
Now give it a rest "Good Buddy"
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Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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QUOTE (Apsll) Diceman please; you are going to get us both banned. I told you that you revealed to me who you are. I know what you are attempting to do. Let us just go our seperate ways.
I use moving averages in Bull markets.
I understand that indicators are usefull tools for sorting and scaninning only
I do not subscribe to published tading systems or believe in pure mechanical approaches.
Most fundimentals (IMO) are meaningless.
This is how I trade. Sometimes based on market conditions I will amend my thinking and change my strategy. So if it appears that I contradict myself it is more that I have changed my opinion over the years and no longer subscribe to things that I used to, or the Markets are just different so I need to adapt.
Now give it a rest "Good Buddy"
Dude, just stop responding to moronic posts. No need to get yourself banned. To many cry babies around here. Its just a forum. Who cares what other people think.
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Point taken Traderm. Thanks....
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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OK, we got a buy signal today ie: good setup and price exceeded yesterday's high. Good time to load up as long as price (1) preferably stays above LR30 and/or (2) stays above LBB20.
If you see a doji at the LBB20, especially on a vol spike, it's a go.
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Nice move today. Look for possible resistance and pullback around 2.80. May be chance for safer entry before next leg up.
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Y'know what? I think I might take my winnings and go home.
Just looked at the indexes. Don't like the bullish prospects for next week.
Be careful before getting into this one; I'm tightening my stops.
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Well, now I'm grateful that my stops didn't get triggered. Up 63% so far. Nice move.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Tobydad, what a nice set-up all the way around. VSA, the Tobydad profile; I mean this is a textbook argument for defending technical analysis. It had everything going for it. It was putting in a nice bottom, the volume pattern looked good, TSV was positive.
Nice Nice play for those that participated, (I did not).
You deserve kudos for finding this one TB. Well done....
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Registered User
Joined: 8/10/2009
Posts: 7
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Dear sir, can you prove to me the claimed VSA accumulation in the chart above? Or at least explain it.I don't see anything else but distribution volume in an equity which price is falling during the time period that you remarked.Thanks in advance.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Isidur, VSA is like any other kind of technical analysis; it is subjective and open to interpretation. The only proof that I can give that technical analysis works at all is my trading portfolio.
You can google VSA, read for yourself the many threads here where it is discussed or test it with the many backtest platforms currently avalable. I have read chapters by those that have performed intense studies on the merits of any and all forms of technical analysis and according to some of their findings; there is no proof that using charts of past performance is in any way beneficial. So can I prove to you that VSA is vialble? No I cannot. My success in trading has always been based on - "if it does not work for me than I do not use it, if it works for me than I use it as often as possible".
Sorry that is all I can offer you. Instead of launching into the technical details about VSA I will simply re-state that which I already have. Do the research on its applications and its interpretations and then decide on your own if it is something that is of interest to you.
Good luck,
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Joined: 8/10/2009
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Sir, I dind't ask if it works for you, or for me, or for anyone else. And I surely didn't ask anything about your successful trading or God forbid any details on VSA.
I simply asked you to explain the accumulation you claimed. That is your interpretation of course.
I think is is a simple and fair request.
Thanks in advance.
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You contradict your self "sir". The accumulation that I claim is based on VSA. I told you how to find the details. It is my interpretation and it works for more than just me. VSA is a widely accepted form of technical analysis and you know that you do not need me to lead you to the many links that can indulge you. I smell a rat and since there is only one rat on this forum than I need not venture further.
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Registered User
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Isidur;
It is obvious that you have no less than an intermediate level of knowledge to have even asked the question that you have. That being the case, I'm sure that you know that smart money knows that there is one time and one time only when averaging down on one's cost of acquisition is acceptable, even smart, and that is when a stock that is going to go back up gets driven down by some market manipulation mechanism. Thus, frequently, high volume on a down day can actually be masked accumulation.
But then, you knew that, didn't you?
Apsll, good eye. I was caught off guard but then went and read a few of Isidur's other posts since he/she joined the forum for the first time on 8/10/09. His unusual use of present tense verbs where one would expect past tense, such as,
"...They have reduce their max sale quota to 400 tons (about 25% less than previous level). Since the original agreement gold has quadruple, and the renewal of this pact adds a bullish note to it...."
And then there's the curious use of his own brand of self-made words that emulate the English language,
"I especulate that the bag of euros I bought months ago still have room to climb."
(italics mine)
Sounds strangely familiar. Welcome back, Bigblock.
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Now back to PACR, the toppy look of the market charts coupled with the fact that PACR is outrunning its support, I think I'm going to take profits for real this time. There may be some money I leave on the table (I can always buy back in) but I'm not risking it. I always say, some profit is better than any loss. I'll take the profit.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"And then there's the curious use of his own brand of self-made words that emulate the English language," " Sounds strangely familiar"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Since I stated that I would view all "registered users" with a grain of
salt. He stated he would fool us with a "Gold membership".
hmmmmm.
I guess trading hasn't been going well.
Thanks
diceman
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Diceman;
Apparently. :)
Always good to hear from you.
Now to the subject at hand, (PACR, not our semi-expected guest); just sold complete position @4.35.
A side note, for those of you asking me about position sizes and things of that nature. I don't, typically, feel that is anyone's business but my own. I'm interested in percentages, high ones in a short period of time preferably. I also remember what it felt like to try to start trading with a $500 account. That's one of the reasons that I champion the possibility of successfully buying inexpensive stocks; it gives the "little guy" like me a chance in a big market place with very powerful (financially) players.
So please don't be offended if I don't answer you on questions which I am never sure have direct value in your trading. If you want my advice on your account and how many share you should trade, I am happy to try to help in any way I can. But I am, frankly, unsure of the motives of people that want to know how many shares I trade. It would be too easy to put together the other things that I've said and piece together the size of one of my brokerage accounts.
God's grace to all.
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Joined: 6/11/2005
Posts: 15
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Tobydad,
I hope the comment on position sizes was aimed at me. Sorry I put you on the spot. Your portfolio size(s) is of no interest to me since I will not be trading it/them.
Assuming a $100K account: what would be a reasonable share count to use for shares in $0.50 to $5.00 range that trade about 200K shares a day (when the signal comes to buy)?
Is this question sufficiently removed from your portfolio value?
Another point, how do you prioritize picks when many pop up at one time? And what is reasonable count of positions (individual stocks) to hold and your logic behind that. I am not asking for the number of positions you currently hold, and while it would be interesting to know that, that information will not make be a better trader, so not what I need to know. You tend to think through your situation and I prefer your reasoning to some hard number.
Thanks,
Jay
Also, I tend to copy the post before I preview it in case it gets lost and I end up wasting the time put into the post. (control-A and control-C)
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Joined: 7/1/2008
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jkelkar,
If you're trading with serious capital that you can't afford to have completely wiped out, It's a fairly good rule of thumb not to risk more than 2% of your equity on a single position. This does not mean a 2% max allocation, it means based on your stop loss, you won't wipe out more than 2% of your account if the stop is triggered.
For example, 10% of your account with a 20% stop loss on the position would lose 2% of equity. Or 20% of your account with a 10% stop loss.
This kind of risk control helps prevent unrecoverable drawdowns, assuming you have a valid trading approach. For more on this, I recommend Tharp's "trade your way to financial freedom"
Also, for setting stop losses you should take into account the volatilty of the stock. a 5% stop loss would be useless on a stock with 9% average true range (ATR). You can use Telechart to calculate the ATR of a stock, and a stop loss should give the stock at least 2x it's ATR to fluctuate.
So if you've got a super volatile stock with an ATR of 15%, you might have to give it at least a 30% stop loss. In order to not lose more than 2% of your account if the stop is triggered, you'd only want to stake roughly 7% of your account on this trade.
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Hi jkelar
I cant speak for tobydad on this but I can give you my views.
As stated previously I have recently become interested in this style stock.
(when the time is right)
A while back I showed some returns on these stocks and between tobydads
and some I had mentioned. Out of some 30 stocks the average return
was about 150% in a few months. So there is plenty of potential.
Since this tends to be robust I wouldn't get too caught up in a "pick" as you
are sort of painting yourself into to a corner.
I typically buy 10 of these at once.(although I would think you would
be safe buying 5) Just a simple diversification number.
Should something hit a stop or profit target there are plenty left to replace
it. You can quickly determine how much you need depending on how
long you want to get. Want to go $30K long? Then $3000 in each stock.
I do size my positions based on volatility.
If your afraid to buy more dollar value then buy more stocks.
As far as selection and entry. I have found these to be extremely
explosive. (the 10 stocks I actually bought were up 43% as a
basket in 5 trading days) So I try to sneak in under that radar
and look for a down period in the market. (preferably 2 down days
or even a small downtrend)
The stocks I actually buy are the ones that performed the weakest.
I have found that waiting for any type of conformation or
chart indication costs way too much money.
(I know someone who also trades this style stock. As luck
would have it both of us were interested in the same stock.
He uses breakouts to time his entries. I had about 3
times the return in the same stock because I didn't wait for
conformation.)
If you cant stomach buying this type of stock then use half or
one quarter of what you would normally buy. With these types of
returns it wont be long before your using the houses money.
Typically I try to make $2 my cut-off point in price.
Realize that this is a "broad strokes view" just to give you
ideas. The simple truth is that I will do whatever I think is
necessary at any time. I'm not a big believer in rules , laws and
dogma. I believe that every situation has its own set of rules.
For me this isn't a 24/7 strategy. I like this type of thing more
at short-term market bottoms. These things are like coiled
springs ready to explode when the market turns up.
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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Yeah, what he said.
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Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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I am realy enjoying trading low priced stocks myself. And the more research I do, and the more I trade them, the better I feel about it. Actually, I just closed MESA on Friday for a 100% gain and it appears TKO crossed the 100% gain mark afterhours. Just so I don't get heckled, I also have a couple stocks in my portfolio that are down 20-25% as well.
I also just learned and have been reading about Sir John Templeton. He was a Yayle graduate just after the great depression and he took all the money he had at the time ($10,000.00) and bought every stock trading below $1 at that time (there were 100 stocks) so $100 for each stock. 3 years later this amount had quardupled to $40,000.00 -- even though several of the companies went bankrupt.
It is reasurring to know that someone who ended up being so prsoperous, got his start in low priced stocks.
Good luck all.
David John Hall
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Registered User
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Posts: 6,049
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"Just so I don't get heckled, I also have a couple stocks in my portfolio that are down"
Now come on. Who do think would do that?
What do you think this is? Weakville? Shakytown?
ScaredCity? DependsVillage?
Were all experienced traders here and we
embrace the success of others.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 6/11/2005
Posts: 15
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ben2k, diceman, tobydad, davidjohnhall,
Thanks for your comments.
I understood what you said, however:
diceman said: 'The stocks I actually buy are the ones that performed the weakest.' Could you explain this comment? Perhaps the ones that dropped the most in price?
Another thing that I wonder about, if you had to buy say $10000 of $1.20 stock (about 8000 shares) would you buy it on the first conditional stop or buy in 2 or more lots? This is the question I had asked tobydad, but as you saw it did not come out right.
If things go as we expect (continued bear) there should be a lot of < $1.00 priced stocks available to trade in the future.
So far I have been following the dragon and tobydad profile discussions, What are the other strategies that I could read up on? Especially bear market trading, seeing as that is what seems to be next.
Apsll, what is your profile?
Thanks,
Jay
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Registered User
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QUOTE (jkelkar)
I understood what you said, however:
diceman said: 'The stocks I actually buy are the ones that performed the weakest.' Could you explain this comment? Perhaps the ones that dropped the most in price?
Another thing that I wonder about, if you had to buy say $10000 of $1.20 stock (about 8000 shares) would you buy it on the first conditional stop or buy in 2 or more lots? This is the question I had asked tobydad, but as you saw it did not come out right.
As to Diceman's statement, read his preceding paragraph; the statement (as all statements are) is a contextual one. (This is the sole reason that people misunderstand and assume contradiction with respect to the Bible; reading out of context---but, Wow!, I really digress!)
As to Jay's question on shares traded, I suggest a search on some of the threads re: scaling in. Very good stuff. For me, it's all about risk and reward; the more support I see developing and the less resistance I see overhead, the more that I want to maximize my profits by putting more money in at a lower price. If things are iffy, then scaling in is probably appropriate.
As to Aspll's approach, he uses many different styles but the one that you may have seen most recently on this forum is VSA, which is volume spread analysis (I think I remember that correctly). Apsll invested quite a bit of time developing that for the forum and you should be able to search and find it.
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Registered User
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"diceman said: 'The stocks I actually buy are the ones that performed the weakest.' Could you explain this comment? "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you look at the list of stocks supplied by tobydad on 3/11/09.
I sorted them by 21 day price % change on 3/12/09
(I used this value because DJH has been using it for the
interesting numbers post approx. a month of trading)
Based on 21 day % change.
The worst performing stocks returned 203.63% thru 5/8/09.
(5/8/09 is just an arbitrary date picked when the rally was "underway")
Based on 21 day % change.
The best performing stocks returned 141.42% thru 5/8/09.
The better return from the weak sort was because you had purchased
the number 1,2,3 and 5 performing stocks from the list.
From #1 LVS with a 493% return to #5 SGY with a 195% return thru 5/8/09.
This was in a period where the SP500 rose approx 23%
Had you purchased the 10 stocks that actually returned the worst your
return would have been 105%
Like I said 5/8/09 was just an arbitrary date the actual list is higher today.
A few things should be clear from this:
1)There is no way to guarantee picking the best performing
stocks from the list.
(if you find one please let me know)
2) A simple sort of weakness lead you in the right direction
to at least buy the #1,2,3,5 stocks.
(I've found this to be true over other testing periods)
Im looking for a "batting average" of whats going to
perform better on balance.
3) Even buying the absolute worst performers wasn't bad.
Its simply not worth getting mixed up in all the noise.
Find a simple way to execute and carry it out.
Realize that there are no right or wrong answers in this. If there
is something I say that disagrees with tobydad it is simply my
interpretation of the same problem.
(there are probably 10 to 20 methods that could be used to
select stocks from these lists)
Look at it this way.
You were given a gift from tobydad. (the stock list)
You were given a gift from the markets. (bullish environment)
If your caught up in all the "flaws" of the system.
If your caught up in why it wont work.
If your caught up in what will go wrong.
You wont move forward.
If you only want to only see the risk side of the equation
and never the reward. Then you will.
The idea is to define the risks then define what your
going to do about it.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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[QUOTE=
Apsll, what is your profile?
Thanks,
Jay
[/QUOTE]
How are you Jay?
Like Tobydad stated I trade many different styles. I try and design my strategies to fit the Market conditions. When I have time, I back test strategies that worked in similar conditions. and then put my own spin on things.
Right now I am to busy with other projects to be trading a Market that I do not trust. There has been some talk about this right before I got otherwise engaged but I have just never seen this kind of Market action before so the timing is ripe for me to not be trading right now and focus on other things.
I like Tobydads profile for this kind of Market if I were to be trading it. Also Davidjohnhalls "Dragon" seems to be working well. I will be back in the saddle and designing more strategies (or re-kindling old ones) when the markets are more to my liking. I know that I could be making money off this nice "Bullish trend" but Other priorities are on the front burner at this time.
Good luck Jay and I look foward to sharing with you when I test the waters again....
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Jay, I also read Dicemans answer to you in reference to the "worst performing stocks".
We have to keep in mind what was taking place in early March of this year. At the time how many of us knew that the Markets were hitting bottom and that this nice trend would develope? Tobydad posted his great list that whent on to do awsome things. Myself I posted a list on Davidjohnhalls "pennystock" thread in early March that did great. I say this not to brag, but what stocks did not do well following the March bottom?
Look at it this way. If you are witness to the birth of a new "Trend" and you somehow have the foresight to be aware of this great shift; than yes stocks that have not yet made the transition in their perspective moves do stand to have more upside potential than those stocks that are well into their move. You must realize however that this is all "hindsite 20/20.... It is nice to play the armchair quarterback after the game is over. The hard part is fought in the here and now like lets say this very trend starting this Monday.. Is the trend going to continue? Is the trend exhausted? Is this new volume accumulation or distribution???? Is it less risky to go long now than it was in March? Will I miss the profits if I am to gun-shy to pull the triger. You will have all these answers a couple of months from now of course because the left side of the chart always responds to technical anaysis much better than the right side of the chart does. Emotion is always the bigest hurdle to clear when trading in the trenches.
Just thought I would add my opinions while I have the time.....
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Posts: 15
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Tobydad, diceman, Apsll,
Thanks for you answers. I have looked at VSA but not in any detail (like diceman and Apsll, I like to backtest and understand the strategy).
Great analysis Diceman, I appreciate it.
Apsll, thanks for the info on what you are up to and the psychology of trading.
Tobydad, thanks for your perspective on buying outright as against scaling in.
I have added a Moving Linear Regression (30) line to the chart of TD's profile and it gives me a visual of where the right most point of Linear Regression line was on each day in the past. My $0.02!
-Jay
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Jay;
re: moving linear regression: yes, that's a great addition to the profile. Diceman turned me on to that when we were working on my 223 stochastics idea a year or so ago. Since then, I've found the moving LR to be a great tool.
good point!
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Registered User
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Posts: 15
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Diceman, you are so far ahead of me!
Thanks Tobydad.
Late last night I got to thinking that while I mostly understand the buying side of TD profile ( I will call it that ), I would like to learn more about the selling side. Both, when the stock rises and reaches maturity and also when it has to sold when it fails to rise - this sounds like bread making. Todbydad, would you be kind enough to post a couple of charts to illustrate?
One other thing, in the case of using TD profile to buy, TSV looks good, LBB30 is below candles, MLR has moved below candles. What part of LR30 should be supporting the bullish candle(s)? I keep thinking the right edge, but I could use some clarification and a chart or two. Thanks in advance.
If I have not already mentioned it, thanks for taking the time and also for your interest in helping.
-Jay
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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jay;
So we are all on the same page, it's LBB20, not 30.
As to all of the questions, if you will be kind enough to do some searching in the archives, you should be able to find fairly extensive discussions on all of your questions.
Please check there first and then if you have more questions, we can discuss.
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Registered User
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Posts: 15
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TD,
Got the LBB30 confused with the LR30. You are correct and I did mean LBB20.
I have compiled a document of snippets from posts on TD profile and other entries. A lot of things have been said but the context is mostly a particular stock. If you can, I am looking for a generalized example. I will of course continue looking in the archives.
-Jay
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Registered User
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Posts: 6,049
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jkelkar
I dont know if you've seen this:
Thanks
diceman
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Posts: 193
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Here's an old friend on a tear today. I missed it though. A good reminder to keep an eye on my watch lists. It is also a good example of buying the LBB break prior to price moving up onto LR30. Now if I just had a scan that would pick these up better.
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Registered User
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Posts: 2,181
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Jean, you didn't miss anything...well, ok, you did miss a nice move today but with the looks of this chart there should be plenty of good times ahead.
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