Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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For the short-term trader:
TUE FEB 3 is the next projected pivot day (DJIA, COMP, SP500) where we'll be anticipating a change in the short-term trend. As of FRI's (1-30-09) close, the immediate prevailing trend is down, so the model predicts that odds should favor an opposite direction (UP) in the short-term. Typically, when the short-term trend flips direction it's good for at least 2 to 3 days.
Longer-term we continue to expect a retest of the NOV lows.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Don't you thin that has something to do with the fiscal yr and the contributions to 401's, IRA's, and the like.
This has been discussed before. For further information on this matter go here
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=38017
Look at Reality's comments. I am in agreemet there.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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I'll be looking for a "stimulus plan" that spurs some short-term growth on TUE.
1) the McClellan Summation Index turned back down on FRI, and remains lower as of MON's close.
.....the Oscillator is negative as well, but MON was now the 3rd negative consecutive day, and since this short-term indicator fluctuates with regularity every few days, it's due to turn up soon.
2) the TIAP system is giving signals for 4 of the 6 ETF's that I track:
.....for TUE, odds favor an advance for DIG and SSO.......................and declines for DUG and SDS.
3) TUE is a projected pivot day for all 3 major averages (DJIA, COMP, SP500) where the model is expecting a change in the short-term trend. Since the immediate prevailing trend has been down, the anticipated pivot move should be UP. So, on TUE, my bias will be to look for an UP move and if it materializes, then try to catch the wave. Typically, when the pivot hits the new short-term trend carries for 2-3 days.
I would especially like to see the Ultra ETF's close TUE above the following levels: QLD 26.33........DIG 27.60........SSO 22.97
as this would turn their short-term trends upward.
Good Luck
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- US Futures & Markets Indicators
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| S&P 500 |
+5.20 |
826.50 |
2/2 9:45pm |
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821.86 |
2/2 9:42pm |
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+4.64 |
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| NASDAQ |
+5.50 |
1194.25 |
2/2 9:15pm |
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1194.72 |
2/2 9:42pm |
| Difference* |
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-0.47 |
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| Dow Jones |
+48.00 |
7935.00 |
2/2 9:27pm |
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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and futures are now minus 37! let's face it, there are no strong odds of the market going either way right now. probably a good time to stay on the sidelines...?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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good job, scanit.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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scanit -
On Monday you said, " 2) the TIAP system is giving signals . . . . .".
What does the TIAP stand for?
Thanks
soc
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Scanit;
Nice work. Of course, we'll see what happens but this coincides precisely with what I have been saying. VIX seems to be confirming as well.
Caveat to all readers: Everyone needs to continue to keep their heads on a swivel. This market will blindside you in a minute. If we do get this little rally, enjoy it. But don't settle in for a long winter's nap. This kind of market can turn on you in an instant.
Study the behavior of the VIX. Watch it on your favorite template. It will help you anticipate.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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For those who are not filled with pessimism and negativity, thank you for your comments.
TIAP = Technical Indicator Alignment Pattern
This model utilizes a layout of 5 technical indicators along with price that I track for recurring synchronized patterns.
The "Pivot Day" model was something that I made after reading about some of the work done by J. Welles Wilder.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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seems this pivot poin,t came and went quickly.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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Outstanding work here scanit. I use Elliott Wave (EW) a lot - when I can see them. But EWs are filled with, "the market will do this if that" and the timing is often sketchy. Does your system work for, say, 3-day or weekly charts? Or is that something you haven't looked into?
all the best,
soc
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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funnymony,
I'm not sure. We may be seeing a pivot, of sorts. Based on recent history, one might make an argument for the market dropping hard. Rather it seems to be holding.
Disclaimer: not opinion, just discussion. No big battle needed.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Sorry, shouldn't have said "...big battle...". "...great debate..." would have been better phraseology.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (tobydad) funnymony,
I'm not sure. We may be seeing a pivot, of sorts. Based on recent history, one might make an argument for the market dropping hard. Rather it seems to be holding.
Disclaimer: not opinion, just discussion. No big battle needed.
When it comes to support levels ... I like to see them hit ... and then moved away from quickly ...
This market seems to be getting way too "comfortable" with these lower levels ...
And rallies off of these levels recently ... have been somewhat uninspiring ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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No doubt, RC. It's a much more comforting scenario but this market is providing some new variations on a theme.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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looks like we have some triangles forming. the range is getting tighter. nasdaq is outperforming spy.
seems to be wave 4. another down may be yet to come.
but i'll trade whichever side of the triangle we breakout.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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same here funnymoney. I think the direction it breaks is going to be dependent upon Obamas solution to the financial crises. If the market gets what it thinks it needs or not...my prediction...anything short of a $2trillion "bad bank" program will be a disappointment.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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i thought these triangle formations were classically meant to be continuation patterns as opposed to reversal patterns? or can they be either?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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a symmetrical triangle can be either, but the odds favor breakouts in the direction of the prevailing trend
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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And it's not symmetrical on the DJIA ...
With the second line on the supercycle chart providing support ...
And a trendline connecting the early November and early January highs ... providing resistance ...
The things that are going through my head ... please frgive me if I ramble a bit ...
The T2118 has had the largest move in my chart history ... how long before it cycles down ?
The people that couldn't get their money out of hedge funds last year becasue of the gates ... still want out ... folks don't like having their money locked away from them ...
The levels at which the sellers come in in force ... seems to be decling ...
On the other hand ...
We have seen some mild improvements in manufacturing indexes ...
The money flows this time of year are generally overwhelmingly positive ... at least for the next 7 or 8 weeks ...
The dry bilk index is showing signs of life ...
China appears to be responding to their stimulus efforts ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (ben2k9) same here funnymoney. I think the direction it breaks is going to be dependent upon Obamas solution to the financial crises. If the market gets what it thinks it needs or not...my prediction...anything short of a $2trillion "bad bank" program will be a disappointment.
i wish it were that easy. i don't think massive government spending has ever worked. it take months and years for whatever fraction of the intial stimulus to ever make it to the economy.
but i'll keep an open mind.
reality-i can see three potential triangles patterns (symetrical, descending, and wedge). time will tell which pattern ultimately plays out. i think all that really matters is key resistance or support is broken with some volume, and trin, tick, and mcclellan confirm. thiers no rule that says T2118 can't go higher.
we know washington is a clown show, but a bear rally is always possible.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LOL, this is amusing to say the least.
I don't care whether you have triangles, squares, or elipses in your chart. There is no way, that the market is going to buy this nonsense government bail out.
The economy, regardless of your triangles, or elipses is not improving.
In a country with over 10 TRILLIONS in deficit, how can you justify a bail out.
The initial 755 Billions given to banks has really done nothing - except evaporate.
What makes you think this second wave of bailouts is going to do? They are so messed up down in washington that the whole country could go up in flames, and they would still be debating what is really need it. That is for each one's self interest.
Ask yourself, if we can print billions and billions to give to banks - why can we do the same for health care? You know why, it is call interests.
They are hoping to give you back the money you gave them before you had it so you can return it with some nice interest - did you hear? - hello, hello IINNTTEERREESSTT.
But the funny things is that they already know it is not going to work.
Until this country fix their health care, their manufacturing, and now their housing - this economy is going nowhere anytime soon. Now how is that for a triangle?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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realitycheck - I don't pay a heck of a lot of attention to the DOW. The way it's calculated doesn't make it a very good index... I would use the SPX as the best for the broad market.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (ben2k9) realitycheck - I don't pay a heck of a lot of attention to the DOW. The way it's calculated doesn't make it a very good index... I would use the SPX as the best for the broad market.
sp-500 are the large caps. russell 3000 and wilshire 5000 are broad market indexes. personally, i like look at all the major market indexes for clues.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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But Bigblock ...
What about all of the money that the Democrats put in the stimulus bill for family planning ... and smoking cessation ...
Don't you think that is going to revive the economy ... all by itself ??
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (ben2k9) realitycheck - I don't pay a heck of a lot of attention to the DOW. The way it's calculated doesn't make it a very good index... I would use the SPX as the best for the broad market.
sp-500 are the large caps. russell 3000 and wilshire 5000 are broad market indexes. personally, i like look at all the major market indexes for clues.
for sure. I look at all of them too. One thing driving me a little crazy right now is that the Shanghai index looks very bullish, and yet there is no way to access this market.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (realitycheck) But Bigblock ...
What about all of the money that the Democrats put in the stimulus bill for family planning ... and smoking cessation ...
Don't you think that is going to revive the economy ... all by itself ??
I don't care whether democrats or republicans - they all reside in the big circus town calle DC right?
I am saying that UNTIL those clowns get their priorities together down there - this economy is not moving forward.
Keeping the presses running is just digging a deeper hole.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (realitycheck) But Bigblock ...
What about all of the money that the Democrats put in the stimulus bill for family planning ... and smoking cessation ...
Don't you think that is going to revive the economy ... all by itself ??
more abortions might actually help. 
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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funnymony;
please elaborate....more abortions?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
I don't care whether democrats or republicans - they all reside in the big circus town calle DC right?
I am saying that UNTIL those clowns get their priorities together down there - this economy is not moving forward.
Keeping the presses running is just digging a deeper hole.
Well ...
We both know that they are incapable of getting their act together ...
And yeah ... we'll probably go the way of Zimbabwe ....
But ... there's money to be made there too ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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To Whom It May Concern:
Before FRI's close, I will be closing short-term positions and taking profits. We've now had some nice short-term follow-through from TUE's pivot UP.
Good Luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Some of the positions I have listed on previous watchlists look to be just getting started.
Portfolio up 10% last two days on long positions. I suspect more to come. I'm looking for VIX to work its way back to 31-35.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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As far as chart patterns go they are mearly just a reflection of participant sentiment. We all know that this can change in a heart beat. That is why you will sometimes see the triangle break up sometimes or down other times.
I agree with Some opinions here that the economy is not yet on the road to recovery but I want to post a link to an interesting article that has me thinking "along with the current price action in the SPX" that maybee this Bear Market more resembles the 1974 recesion than the 1929 Bear. On other forums that I post on they are all waiting for the second leg of a double bottom or the next leg leading us down to the deep south. But when I look at the SPX for the 73 to 75 Bear market, I see some similar price action that resembles what we now have. In 1975 there was no double bottom. That Bear was a short one just under 2 years. The 74 recesion was bad for the economy but the market recovered quickly. I am not saying that we will go the way of the early 70's Bear Market but it sure looks similar along with an Energy crisis, High Un-employment.
Time will give us our answer of course but here is a chart from the 73 to 75 Bear and how it looks like what we are seeing now and the link to what I think is an interesting article.
http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/morecommentary/article.aspx?cp-documentid=9840978
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (Apsll) On other forums that I post on they are all waiting for the second leg of a double bottom or the next leg leading us down to the deep south. But when I look at the SPX for the 73 to 75 Bear market, I see some similar price action that resembles what we now have. In 1975 there was no double bottom.
fyi-looking at the dow 30, that index put in a "textbook" double bottom. i'll leave it to others to compare the current recession with the 74-75 recession.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Of course you will leave it to others to decide. Is there another option? I only made reference to the SPX compared to todays SPX. I did not intend anything else. I could be way off and the S&P 500 could be in the 700's by next week.
I have just had some success with daytrading the (Bullish) prevailing winds as of late. Is it a Bull trap? We will see...
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Registered User
Joined: 11/13/2007
Posts: 2
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funnymony
hi
can you tell me what screen capture program you use to put tc 2000 picture on this tread?
thankyou
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (graydawn2) funnymony
hi
can you tell me what screen capture program you use to put tc 2000 picture on this tread?
thankyou
i just print screen and paste to microsoft paint, and save it as a .png file. i then upload to photobucket.com and then insert a direct link in my post.
total cost: $0
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (Apsll) On other forums that I post on they are all waiting for the second leg of a double bottom or the next leg leading us down to the deep south. But when I look at the SPX for the 73 to 75 Bear market, I see some similar price action that resembles what we now have. In 1975 there was no double bottom.
fyi-looking at the dow 30, that index put in a "textbook" double bottom. i'll leave it to others to compare the current recession with the 74-75 recession.
You are completely correct funny.
On the other hand I find the comment by Apsll "In 1975 there was no double bottom." to be absolutely wrong and confusing.
If you tell folks that a pattern isn't there when as funny said - it is really as clear as in a text book, then you are formenting a lot of confusions for those in doubt.
I hope that going forward you reconsider your understanding of technical analysis, and that you only contribute what you really understand and are able to see for the sake of beginners.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Well ...
For whatever it's worth ...
I went to Wally World today ... and it probably had half the people in it that it normally does ...
I went to Home Depot ... and there were probably no more than a dozen customers in the whole store ...
There must have been 6-8 sales associates falling all over me ... wanting to know if I needed any help ...
Today was sunny and 70F ... the kind of day when everybody climbs out of their winter hibernation and goes to the home centers ...
But ... apparently not today ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Bigblock how many threads are you intending to have the management delete. I thought a week off might cool your jets but I guess that your plan to deflect my nonsense has failed. I only spoke of the SPX and other similar circumstances when comparing the two scenarios. I guess that I just pulled the 1974 SPX chart out of the rabbit hole. You cannot see for your self that there is no double bottom? Maybe you and Funnymony are going to the same optometrist.
I simply stated that the SPX had no double bottom and that some economic conditions are similar. I am not responsible for your miss-interpretation of my statements. Please stop the charade that you care anything about beginning traders or any other traders for that matter you are making me nauseated. You and everyone else know that you do not care one bit about them. You only wish to perpetuate the facade that you are some kind of a guru. If you only knew how many of us laugh at you behind closed doors.
If you are going to challenge my statements at least have the intelligence to understand what I am saying and get it right. How can I debate you when you cannot even comprehend my position?
Please grow up and act like the success that you claim to be. We are only discussing opinions here not rocket science.
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