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Joined: 10/7/2004
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As you well know I have my own opinions about were we are at in this economy, but some say that we are reaching a botton (lol), some say we are just getting started (lol), some want to compare to 1929, or 1987, or something else and some are expecting the top of 2007 in just a few months.
All looking for something - an answer, a target, a reminiscense... something.
I like to take a poll - what I would like to hear from you is what you think.
Where do you think we are now?
Where do you think we are headed?
Of course back it up with facts, and explain them. Don't just tell us - we are here, and we will be there; tell us why.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Where do you think we are now?
Where do you think we are headed?
Of course back it up with facts, and explain them. Don't just tell us - we are here, and we will be there; tell us why.
Well ...
My opinion and a dollar (particularly a US Dollar) won't get you squat at Starbucks ...
But ... since I have no prognostication reputation to protect ... I'll give it a go ...
I'll start by saying that I am currently 100% long emerging markets ...
I feel like we have put in an intermediate bottom ... that should be good for a couple to few month rally ....
Remember the old Wall Street adage .... "Stay and play 'til May ... then go away"
Well ... I don't know if it'll last until May ... but the VIX and VXN are looking awfully tired up here ...
As is the US Dollar index ... which has a little topping formation of it's own going on that may turn out to look like a mini H&S top ...
What's been happening to the yields of T-Bills and T-Bonds is utterly rediculous ... paying the Fed to keep your money for you ?
Anyway ... those charts look as if that might be about ready to change ....
Add to that ... the fact that the data from today's unemployment report ... as well as the mortgage delinquincies and foreclosures report ... was utterly deplorable ... and yet the market manged to sell off only to about the 8150 level ... which is where it found support on Monday/Tuesday ... and then rally back roughly 500 points ... tells me in no uncertain terms which side of this market is the WRONG one to be on in the short term ...
So .... where are we headed ...
Well ... that depends largely on things that we do not yet know ... however ... we do know that the market has many headwinds looking forward ....
The retirement of the baby boomers ... who were "savers" ... and will be withdrawing their savings from the markets to live off of .... while they will be replaced by the Generation Y'ers ... who have never saved a dime and only seek to live off of their parents (and with them when possible) for as long as they can ....
The tightening of lending standards ... this economy ... and market has been largely driven by debt for the last quarter of a century ... governmental, individual, and corporate ... and debt service limits are quickly being reached ... by all of these categories ... even the US Govt is in danger of losing it's Triple A rating ...
Personal savings is at ZERO ... which means that it can only go up ... and whatever is saved is not spent ... and that is what makes up 70%+ of our economy ...
Once people see a good portion of their money "evaporate" in the markets ... they get pretty scared of the markets ... and it takes years and years to coax them back in ....
Over the last several years ... automobiles have been produced and sold at roughly three times the rate that they have been scrapped ... that can't go on forever ... unless everyone plans to own, insure, and pay taxes on 10 vehicles in their driveway ....
The manufacturing base in the US continues to erode as corportaions move abroad to shed themselves of an oppressive tax burden, oppressive regulatory burdens, skyrocketing healtcare costs, etc ....
So ... do you think that the bunch of lawyers that taking control early next year are going to be cutting corportate taxes ... when they ran on an "Evil Corporate America" platform ?
The first step in controlling healthcare costs is tort reform ... do you think that same bunch of lawyers is going to be putting caps of civil awards ?
Nah ... I don't think so either ....
Looking out over the next 30 years ... the US has unfunded liabilities of more than $60 trillion ... and the IRS took in about $2.7 trillion in 2007 ....
The supercycle chart illustrates what is "natural" for the market ... and what represents a deviation ...
I think that we are likely to return to the center band .... whether we decline into it ... or simply trade sideways into it .... who knows ?
But ... fundamentally speaking ... I suspect that you can stick a fork in the US ... as it prety much appears "done" to me ...
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
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The magnitude of the drawdown in the markets is now on par with the worst bear markets in the past century, with only one exception: 1929-32. Even then, the markets only traced down about 50% during the first year. It took 3 years to grind down to the eventual 90% drop in the DOW30, as more policy mistakes were made. After the first 50% drawdown in 1929, the markets regained about half of that before ultimately heading lower. This is not to compare this period with that period, but to get a range of past behaviors as reference.
it's important to say: recessions are normal, but depressions are polical events, caused by massive policy failures. There have been serious policy failures that got us to where we are, and ensures that this is no normal recession.
Bottom picking is for amateurs, imo, and there's no better way to look like an ass that to come up with a "high-conviction prediction". I say that the best traders do not predict, they observe, interpret, and react.
To finish the thought on the economy - I believe it's going to be the worst in our lifetime. The amount of troubled assets are astronomical, and therefore credit will be tight for years. Credit is the lifeblood of GDP growth. I expect no "v-shaped" recovery economically, and since the market is a leading economic indicator, I don't expect a v-shaped rebound. I think the economic conditions are going to do a wide "U" or saucer shape. Consumers are in bad shape with all the wealth that's been destroyed in the past year, so they will be no help for a recovery for a while.
As for the markets, I believe this puts us in a rangebound sideways pattern for a year or 2 from here.
I believe it's plausible that the markets have bottomed, but am not confident with that assessment due to the shearing forces of delevering hedge funds, investor redemptions, and other unknown variables. I don't think fundamental analysis is of an value during a bear market or for calling bottom. how many fundamental strategists said stocks were fairly valued a year ago? Cheap 9 months ago? Cheap 6 months ago? A bargain 3 months ago? Nearly all of them.
Historically markets bottom at the trough of the recession - about halfway through. if we've been in this recession for a year, and this is a 2 year recession, then we're halfway through it. if it's a 3 year recession, then we'll be halfway through in a few months, so the market could be bottoming middle 2009, or trading sideways from here until then (sideways meaning high volatility and intermediate rallies and corrections along the way).
We're already past the average length of recessions post WWII, so a 2-3 year recession will be severe as far as recessions go.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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We may be entering a "sucker's" rally within a Bear market.
Because of the massive government intervention in the free market economy, I suspect this will NOT be a "V" pattern Bear, but rather an "L" pattern prolonged recession.
I have no idea when the final market bottom will be reached or at what level. Could be a long roller coaster ride.
Those believing in "long term" investing (AKA professional money managers) may need to reassess how long they really think it will take to regain the capital lost during the past 13 months. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to stay even. Kind of a sobering thought isn't it?
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Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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i'll keep it short.
as a trader, i'll follow the market trend, not pick bottoms or make predictions.
my opinion is this downturn is more like 1929. there are some deep structural problems that will take years to work out. history has also shown that bear markets alternate in similiarity. so this bear market will be more like the 1929 bear than the 1974 bear.
the government will try and spend us out of this resession and create a monetary crisis and another recession, much like what happened in 1937.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Realitycheck.
Actually the dollar is up. Check UUP or the futures contract (????)
I think I have been misguided in some of my earlier musings and Bigblock, pains me though it does, was nicely correct in the intermediate term prognosis. Crow pie can be tasty..... with salt and pepper.
Not to be daunted I'll take a stab at the question.
I haven't got a clue. I can tell you where we were. but that doesn’t help here.
I think that Americans have been building a house of cards with revolving easy credit handed out by an industry that sees perpetual debt as an income stream. I think it's amazing that not only mortgage debt but Credit card debts are securitized and packaged as investments that not even Warren Buffet understands (Google video of Buffet) and they banking industry that spent months telling us everything was fine with housing is also telling us that things are fine with credit card debt. IT's not the cause of the problem.
But a Google of "credit default and bank losses" suggests otherwise. Also in 2005 the industry apparently got a caveat in the "abusive bankruptcy" filing prevention laws while not getting ANY restrictions to it's own practices.
Now They are lobbying against laws that could curtail their ability to fleece people.. Just amazing. Not that this is the issue.. BUT the part of the issue. Excess credit that is floated around such that Americans have a distorted view of money, savings, value and life. It's time to pay they piper.
I think Credit will get harder to get, maybe commercial and consumer. This may be a good thing but it may also hurt.
I see this current market action technically as a God send. I'm fairly young and a bottom will come. and then ti could be difficult to make a long term investment decision. There may be a period of a year or more (I hope not 10 but it has happened) where markets were mostly choppy. There were however some stocks that cruised nicely during those periods as well.
Technically right now I'm real cautious of putting on big short positions of an real duration. Looking at the weekly chart with the spread of the price and three moving averages we could get a counter trend relief rally at any moment.
all week we've been getting rallies on bad news. BUT I've also read and heard that The Street sees higher unemployment as good news for various reasons. That may have been confirmed yesterday, may not. the real street reaction to news may have already been seen or may not be seen for a few days. We can't really know.
I think it's telling that education services are starting to look interesting, Small regional banks, and a few others.
Historically the bottoms are technically characterized, through the paradigms I view price in by the following.
1. a huge spread in price and the moving averages (this spread can get bigger so it's subjective)
2 Record volume for the time
3 High volatility
4 high volume on up days and bars with long tails.
5 leading divergences to the up side beginning to show up in many issues if not the indexes.
We have all the above but in a fragile early state.. and DUG taught me that when viewing a bottom as good as it looks now it can look better at a lower price next week with higher volume.
That said I may put on a tiny position in SSO .. not expecting the big win here but the beginning of a relief rally that Could last a few months.
I just see that as time goes by risk in shorting here starts to look unappealing. I'm still going to try and give more attention to my shorts until a higher low forms on the indexes but there are already several of those on the underlying charts.
Ultimately i don't think anyone can REALLY know. They may be very shrewd and suspect but I don't think any of us know.
I know only this.. at some point people will see value in the market place... probably after much of the weak investors are shaken out and the market will then begin a quiet recovery. The masses will likely be still suffering shell shock to notice.
I have no idea when that will be. It could be in the next few months.. or we could have another year to go.
Looking at past declines we are defiantly nearing the longer end of the average duration. Meaning the nearer it's end we are.
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Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (scottnlena)
Realitycheck.
Actually the dollar is up. Check UUP or the futures contract (????)
Yes Scott ... I know ...
That's why I bought into emerging markets ...
You see ... when you buy assets denominated in a foreign currency ... and that currency appreciates against your own ... then you stand to profit from the change in the rate of exchange ...
But the problem is ... the USD hasn't been rallying on fundamentals ...
It has been rallying because ...
Americans have been liquidating foreign assets and repatriating the currency ...
For whatever reason ... the USD is still viewed as the world's first (fiat) reserve currency ... so folks run to it in times of crisis ...
In less than a decade's time ... we will see the US debt go from less than 60% of GDP to at least 100% of GDP ... and as the fundamentals continue to erode ... fewer will be willing to lend the US money ... and the rate will inevitably rise ... to lure more buyers ... and the increased interest will just serve to sink the govt's balance sheet that much faster ...
OK Bigblock ....
Isn't it about time that you weigh in ??
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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This was as of a few weeks ago.
Worst currencies:
1)Zimbabwe 1USD=642,371,437,695,221,000 dollars
(this summer an egg cost 35 billion dollars in Zimbabwe)
2)Somalia 1USD=35,000 shillings
3)Turkmenistan 1USD=24,000 Manat
4)Vietnam 1USD=16,975 Dong
5)Sao Tome and Principe 1USD=14,350 Dobra
6)Indonesia 1USD=11,198 Rupiah
7)Iran 1USD=10,179 Rial
8)Laos 1USD= 8640.75 Kip
9) Guinea Franc 1USD= 5,115
10)Paraguay 1USD=4,615 Guarani
Makes you wonder. If Zimbabwe had FDIC insurance.
How many bank accounts you'd have to open.
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 6/8/2007
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No one has facotred into Medical Recession yet into present unemployment. We are spending average 1.5 to 2 million dollars for bed. Medical inflation is all time high. The cost of production of Unit cost of health care so high, No one in future can buy future health care neither individual or businesses.There will be tremendous amount of people will laid off in medical industry in next 2 years adding to present unemployment. Electronic medical records are the not answers. No one paying attention to so called non-proft( Profits) non-taxable medical industry , spending and expanding at the expense of other industries will kill our economy. It is not the doctors mostly, it is lot middle businesses making fortunes at the weakenss of sick people causing medical inlfation. How de we address this situation???
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
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QUOTE (diceman)
Makes you wonder. If Zimbabwe had FDIC insurance.
How many bank accounts you'd have to open.
Thanks
diceman
Actually ...
I think that I read where the population was using a black market currency of cigarettes .... as the demoninations were aready there ... i.e. they are traded in individual cigarettes, packs, cartons, and cases ....
QUOTE (kshere75)
No one has facotred into Medical Recession yet into present unemployment. We are spending average 1.5 to 2 million dollars for bed. Medical inflation is all time high. The cost of production of Unit cost of health care so high, No one in future can buy future health care neither individual or businesses.There will be tremendous amount of people will laid off in medical industry in next 2 years adding to present unemployment. Electronic medical records are the not answers. No one paying attention to so called non-proft( Profits) non-taxable medical industry , spending and expanding at the expense of other industries will kill our economy. It is not the doctors mostly, it is lot middle businesses making fortunes at the weakenss of sick people causing medical inlfation. How de we address this situation???
You bring up an excellent point kshere75 ...
But ... I'm not willing to let the doctors off the hook so easily ....
What percent of births were performed by Cesarian section in 1970 vs Today ?
Drug companies can't sell $10 pills unless doctors prescribe them .... and they are prescribed all too often when a less expensive choice would be sufficient ...
ANY meaningful reform in medical costs MUST begin with tort reform ... and I just don't see that damned bunch of lawyers that are taking power doing anything about that ....
And as long as the civil court system of the US remains the "Great Lottery" ... costs are only going to increase ... until they implode ...
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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$10.00 ! I wish my pills were only $10.00
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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Good points realitycheck.
Besides needed tort reform, the other huge impact on medical costs has been the insurance industry and the Federal Government.
When I began practicing in the mid-70's, very few people had health insurance. Everyone paid cash.
Doctor visits were generally $7-10 at that time.
When Medicare entered the picture, THEY set the doctor fees.
And like most government programs, they set them ABOVE what was gererally being charged.
And what do you suppose most doctors did with their fee structure then?
This has continued for 3 decades now.
And to think, there are really people out there who think the government will contain the cost of health care.
Rediculous.
The government will increase the cost OR they will ration the care as they do in Canada and Great Britain.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well I have to get my old list out here and check the items - it is getting harder to keep track of so much.
Over a year ago (10/12/07) in the virge of a presentation I wrote this list to keep track of things and some how I managed to keep this list around until now. It is writen by hand on an odd piece of paper. It is nice to see where your line of thought was a year later, and also it tremendously helps in tracking where improvements or deterioration is taking place.
HOUSING - has it improve?
CONSUMER has it improved?
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?
TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?
UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?
HEALTH CARE has it improved?
IRAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?
LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?
Lets add to that the Billions that the government has given to our banks without terms.
Lets add the lost of confidence created at the corporate, as well as consumer levels
It is said that the consumer has to believe the economy before they buy it - Is the cosumer believing?
MANUFACTURING - has it improved? We are close to letting a back bone industry evaporate along with hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Congress asks accountability from auto makers. WHY didn't they do the same with the banks, which got us into this mess to beging with?
How do you explain? On 11/24/08 we were serving Citigroup 326 Billion to save them from the abyss.
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE for Citigroup to be in the news just a week later for aquisition?
CITI FUND BUYING SPANISH HIGHWAYS FOR $10 BILLION.
INFRASTRUCTURE - (referring to the infrastructure of our bridges, roads, etc). has it improved?
Then we have tax payer bailed out entities as Citi which think it is more attractive to buy infrastructure over seas with money they don't have than to invest on their own land.
And well the experts just told us that WE have been in a RECESSION for a whole year - whooopppy!!! I must go and celebrate for the knowledge and be indebted to them for offering my such a great and usable information.
I view of the facts I especulate that the markets are not done falling - in fact they have a way to go. There will be fluctuations as always. I announced you the gingle rally and it came - THIS IS NOT A BOTTOM.
I think I have also announced that to you - refer to "Market Analysis thread(s)".
The recession in not done either - I see that well into the end of 2009 to say the least.
There is a big variable now - Obama, and we will have to see what changes if any along with the variable. Just makes it a little harder to project forward.
Once thing is for sure, even if this man was a magician he couldn't change our broken economy in the time you would like him to.
Our system has not broken - It has shattered. It is my opinion that it would be much better to create a new one than to glue the pieces. Just too many pieces.
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Registered User
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
There is a big variable now - Obama,
That's not a variable ... that's a post turtle ...
You know as well as I that to get out of this mess they are going to have to promote growth through less oppressive taxation, regulation, and labor & benefit costs ....
We no longer have the luxury of just competing within our own little microcosm ...
We must compete in the global economy ...
So tell me ... which of those do you see Obama making less oppressive ??
Or perhaps he will try to reinstall the microcosm with protectionist measures ... casue the Smoot-Hawley act worked so well ... didn't it ?
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Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 31
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All the Feds are doing is band -aid fixing.It may not work. No economic concept will work to lend people to borrow more( When the present debt ridden public cannot pay already) to spend more to stimulate economy. We need to think out of box ideas to stimulate and bring new ideas to solve our economic problems.
Every time in the history of USA, great immigration changed the future for our country
Why cannot allow 1 million professional from all over the world to immigrate into USA, we will issue green cards, on stipulation, they will buy a house worth $ 300,000 and invest another $ 200,000 deposits in our banks. Only we allow best intellectuals including teachers, professors , engineers , scientists and research scholars whereever they may be coming from.
They will buy 1 million houses, 2 million TV, 1 million cars, 1 million washers and dryers.
They will bring 1 miilion new working ideas.
What a national economic stimulus than 1 miilion illegals to our country
think aboout it??????
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Registered User
Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 31
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addendum
1 million individual scholars
$ 500,000X 1,000,000
5,00000000000 How much
1 million new ideas
they do not watch Foot Ball all week, they work to make more by investing what they bring
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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You're right kshere75 ....
All they're doing is trying to blow more air into a bursting bubble ... hoping that they can inflate it again ... making it even bigger ... so that when it pops the next time ... it will be even more devastating ...
As far as immigration goes ... there was a plan last year ... with bipartisan support ... to bring those immigrants that are already here illegally into the fold ... having them pay taxes and integrate into the financial base ... rather than simply take from it ...
It garnered huge resistance from the public ... as the public thought that the opposite of these people being being brought into the fold ... was them going home ... when in truth it was just for things to stay the way that they are ... taking with little contribution ...
And why would professionals want to come here ?
So that the more that they make ... the more that can be taken from them ?
If you were going to make a move ... would it be the US that you would consider to be "The Land of Opportunity" right now ?
If you were to invent the next great "widget" ... would you produce it here ? Would you take your profits here ?
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Registered User
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Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (survivor) Good points realitycheck.
Besides needed tort reform, the other huge impact on medical costs has been the insurance industry and the Federal Government.
When I began practicing in the mid-70's, very few people had health insurance. Everyone paid cash.
Doctor visits were generally $7-10 at that time.
When Medicare entered the picture, THEY set the doctor fees.
And like most government programs, they set them ABOVE what was gererally being charged.
And what do you suppose most doctors did with their fee structure then?
This has continued for 3 decades now.
And to think, there are really people out there who think the government will contain the cost of health care.
Rediculous.
The government will increase the cost OR they will ration the care as they do in Canada and Great Britain.
I think it will either implode on it's self as suggested above or something esle unforseen may happen. Eitehr way it's probably good in the long run. I still think that will be one of the next big sectors and probably our next big bubble.
you kno wthe clintons tried to implement major changes to american healthcare but were blocked at every step of the way. It made big news in other countries.
I'm not gonna put Obama up as a saviour BUT hey I gotta admit that I never thought that I'd see a black (1/2) president in my life.
My only hope with him is that he dosen't stagnate the market for a recovery. 2000 decline took more than a year after the bottom was marked before starting any thing resembling a trend. 1929 on the other hand took almost 10 years.
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"I'm not gonna put Obama up as a saviour BUT hey I gotta admit that I never thought that I'd see a black (1/2) president in my life."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well Clinton was our first black president.
(and he was whole)
Thanks
diceman
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Scott ...Once the ultimate bottom was reached in March of 2003 .... it was nearly straight up for the rest of that year ... and then sideways for nearly 2 years ....
The high reached in 1929 ... was not seen again for over a quarter of a century ....
An as far as the "1/2" goes ...
If you reach back to the grandparents ....
Both of Obama's maternal grandparents were caucasions ....
His paternal grandmother was Lao (now Kenya & Tansania) .... and his paternal grandfather was Arab ...
You see ... Arabs in that area made their living selling African slaves into the Middle East ... until the British put an end to it (officially) in the late 1800s ... early 1900s ...
But even today ... humans can be bought on the Ivory Coast cheaper than ever in history ... and Middle Eastern households are full of indentured servants / slaves from Egypt & Africa ....
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Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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This chart seems to make some traders scared, others happy and others confused. Imagine that. it's more than one thing to more than one person.
Some traders believe they can guess where it's going. Some traders believe the stock market is the economy. Some traders believe they have mastered the market. (and maybe they have). They'll be more than happy to tell you about it.
Which reminds me:
Did you know that you could get a degree in alchemy in Amsterdam at the height of the whole Alchemy craze? Noone had ever turned anything into gold, but yet you could still get a degree. Now you can do other things in Amsterdam.
Instead of using your energy to wonder about where we're going, work on:
Learning how to take small losses in line with your methodology
Learning how to sit tight when you're in a winning trade
Learning how to determine the trend for the time frame you trade
Leaning who you are and how the market affects you on a psychological level
Learning your edge and how to execute it
If you have all those things in place and you are a trader (and not an economist) then you won't need to know where we're going, because you'll know what to do wherever we go.
This may not be 1929 or 1974 or 1987 or 2000 but the market has a history and people (the market is made up of them) sometimes act on theirs. Ever had a family member who can't stop reminding you of their history...? Over and over and over and then, whenever they find themselves in a situation even remotely related to that past event...relives that initial experience...
I have heard it said, the true sign you know you're in trouble is when you start hearing people say "This time its different"... As in: this time its different we're going to the moon!" Or "this time it's different, we're going to zero!"
So here is my big thought for the night:
If the market continues lower, go short.
If the market turns around, go long.
And if you don't have a method that tells you which way its going when its going that way, I would work to develop one.
How relaxing is that. Time for a collective aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
I'd have to agree 100% with funnymony here -- the market will tell you where it's going, but you have to have SOMEway of knowing that. Hint: keep it simple.
Here's another thought: if you're not trading as well as you'd like...give it time. Keep learning. And always treat others, and the market, with respect.
David John Hall
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Registered User
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"HOUSING - has it improve?
CONSUMER has it improved?
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?
TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?
UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?
HEALTH CARE has it improved?
IRAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?
LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?"
------------------------------------------------------------
Wow.
What are we using a rear-view mirror for analysis now?
(caution objects may be larger than they appear)
I guess by this measure the bottom in 1932 looked awful.
(and every other one, no wonder so many miss them)
Also, one of the best times to go "long the market" was October 2007:
Very low unemployment.
Great housing market.
Simple easy credit.
Strong market.
(SP500 at all time highs)
(of course don't forget the summers of 1929 and 1987)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (realitycheck) Scott ...Once the ultimate bottom was reached in March of 2003 .... it was nearly straight up for the rest of that year ... and then sideways for nearly 2 years ....
The high reached in 1929 ... was not seen again for over a quarter of a century ....
An as far as the "1/2" goes ...
If you reach back to the grandparents ....
Both of Obama's maternal grandparents were caucasions ....
His paternal grandmother was Lao (now Kenya & Tansania) .... and his paternal grandfather was Arab ...
You see ... Arabs in that area made their living selling African slaves into the Middle East ... until the British put an end to it (officially) in the late 1800s ... early 1900s ...
But even today ... humans can be bought on the Ivory Coast cheaper than ever in history ... and Middle Eastern households are full of indentured servants / slaves from Egypt & Africa ....
Where can I get one?
just kidding. fine split hairs... al I was refering to was that his mother was white and his faterh was black. However far you go it's still amazing to me that we have a black president of any mix AND one tht is so well spoken and articulate. I voted for him and I'm tickled pink that he got in.
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'Here's another thought: if you're not trading as well as you'd like...give it time. Keep learning. And always treat others, and the market, with respect.
David John Hall' - - -
I hope I havne't treated someone with disrespect. Well there is ONE person that I wouldn't loose sleep over disrespecting but even then depending on my mood I can be forgiving i jst get irritated.
'I'd have to agree 100% with funnymony here -- the market will tell you where it's going, but you have to have SOMEway of knowing that. Hint: keep it simple.' ----
yea. Hmmm. That is just the problem. I haven't found a consistant way to say .. market is headed X direction at exactly this point and so I should be fcusing on Y direction of trades. I think it's gettign better but the damned whipsaws still get me. Reguardless of direction. You know that since this began I can fill 2 pages with short swing trade attempts just under 1/2 of which made a proffit. That is what amazes me ! Trading in the direction of the market during a supper trend and laking losses. that is nuts.
For 2 years now I've been on a quest to figure out what the hell went wrong when I was making good money and didn't know wha tI was doing to being educated and not getting anywhere at best. I'm thinking of going with a coin flip or a random number generator and a percent trail. I'll only need TC to generate lists of currently active issues to randomly select from.
it amazes me how market action can be reduced to less than 50% sucess rate in terms of good picks. I'm not talking about management... 9/10 times I'm stopped out with out a chance to manage anything.
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Registered User
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"I was making good money and didn't know wha tI was doing to being educated and not getting anywhere at best."
That's the problem. when we get "educated".
We get dangerous.
We start to think we can "outsmart" what's
going on.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (diceman)
"HOUSING - has it improve?
CONSUMER has it improved?
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?
TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?
UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?
HEALTH CARE has it improved?
IRAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?
LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?"
------------------------------------------------------------
Wow.
What are we using a rear-view mirror for analysis now?
(caution objects may be larger than they appear)
I guess by this measure the bottom in 1932 looked awful.
(and every other one, no wonder so many miss them)
Also, one of the best times to go "long the market" was October 2007:
Very low unemployment.
Great housing market.
Simple easy credit.
Strong market.
(SP500 at all time highs)
(of course don't forget the summers of 1929 and 1987)
Thanks
diceman
Also, one of the best times to go "long the market" was October 2007:
Very low unemployment.
Great housing market.
Simple easy credit.
Strong market.
(SP500 at all time highs)
Check the Market Analysis threads, and economic commentaries I posted on this board prior and up to them. Did I say go long in Oct 2007?
The market hasn't put a bottom yet, that is all I know. When I know more I will decide whether to tell you or not, and when.
Love your pov ...
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Registered User
Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 31
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All the band aid technics mayh not help our economy. The economy is in ICU.Blood pressure and heart rate may be stable. No response from patient. We are watching economy on ICU monitor.Next chaos and disastor of unseen proportions for world econimic collapse will be falling dollar. In that case even our govt cannot do anything. Patient and our economy will die and we will mourn and restart the life again.
It will take its natural course.
Lot of innocent people will loose their life fortunes
Watch out
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (kshere75)
All the band aid technics mayh not help our economy. The economy is in ICU.Blood pressure and heart rate may be stable. No response from patient. We are watching economy on ICU monitor.Next chaos and disastor of unseen proportions for world econimic collapse will be falling dollar. In that case even our govt cannot do anything. Patient and our economy will die and we will mourn and restart the life again.
It will take its natural course.
Lot of innocent people will loose their life fortunes
Watch out
Well ....
I've lived through a few "downturns" .... but I can't recall one where the things eroded this quickly ...
Taiwan announced today that exports were down 23% year over year ...
When you're an export-dependent economy ... that's a bloddy DEPRESSION !
I consider myself blessed as we have been busy at work ... but I just can't bring myself to believe that we will be an "island" in all of this ...
It's ONE economy ...
Back during the tech boom ... when everybody was spewing all of that crap about "New Economy" & "Old Economy ... I said that there's ONLY one economy ...
People who build computers ... ship them in carboard boxes ... people who make cardboard boxes ... use computers in their business ...
It's ONE economy ... and you can't expect that any one piece ... will not effect all of the other pieces ...
There is a price to paid ... whether it is paid today ... or whether they manage to inflate another bubble so that it may be paid tomorrow ....
The bill will come due ... and it WILL be paid ...
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DavidJohnHall, outstanding comment.
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QUOTE (davidjohnhall)
This chart seems to make some traders scared, others happy and others confused. Imagine that. it's more than one thing to more than one person.
Some traders believe they can guess where it's going. Some traders believe the stock market is the economy. Some traders believe they have mastered the market. (and maybe they have). They'll be more than happy to tell you about it.
Which reminds me:
Did you know that you could get a degree in alchemy in Amsterdam at the height of the whole Alchemy craze? Noone had ever turned anything into gold, but yet you could still get a degree. Now you can do other things in Amsterdam.
Instead of using your energy to wonder about where we're going, work on:
Learning how to take small losses in line with your methodology
Learning how to sit tight when you're in a winning trade
Learning how to determine the trend for the time frame you trade
Leaning who you are and how the market affects you on a psychological level
Learning your edge and how to execute it
If you have all those things in place and you are a trader (and not an economist) then you won't need to know where we're going, because you'll know what to do wherever we go.
This may not be 1929 or 1974 or 1987 or 2000 but the market has a history and people (the market is made up of them) sometimes act on theirs. Ever had a family member who can't stop reminding you of their history...? Over and over and over and then, whenever they find themselves in a situation even remotely related to that past event...relives that initial experience...
I have heard it said, the true sign you know you're in trouble is when you start hearing people say "This time its different"... As in: this time its different we're going to the moon!" Or "this time it's different, we're going to zero!"
So here is my big thought for the night:
If the market continues lower, go short.
If the market turns around, go long.
And if you don't have a method that tells you which way its going when its going that way, I would work to develop one.
How relaxing is that. Time for a collective aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
I'd have to agree 100% with funnymony here -- the market will tell you where it's going, but you have to have SOMEway of knowing that. Hint: keep it simple.
Here's another thought: if you're not trading as well as you'd like...give it time. Keep learning. And always treat others, and the market, with respect.
David John Hall
I agree on the risk control, as well as execution. You can learn that, just like an accountant learns to add
BUT...
David says:
"So here is my big thought for the night:
If the market continues lower, go short.
If the market turns around, go long.
And if you don't have a method that tells you which way its going when its going that way, I would work to develop one.
How relaxing is that. Time for a collective aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh."
Not so fast. For most folks that is easier said than done. If the markets continues lower - well how do you really know that is going to continue lower? And when should they be short?
Furthermore if the markets continues lower - does that mean that the specific equity I am trading will follow?
The same questions applies to the long side. And they apply to most of you out there - don't they?
On the other hand having a fundamental believe of direction helps the self-belief - meaning that if you have some fundamental criteria that is tangible, and applies to our lifes, economy, politics, markets etc you can weight on that and apply to your specific market. If you know how, and that means what I have said in the past - same thing means different things to different folks, but they have a meaning nonetheless. Someone has to be wrong, at least for the time being.
So here is my big thought for the night:
The market was over 200 points down on friday but my equity went down
The market was over 200 points up on friday but my equity went up
The fact that about 1/3 of equities do not follow the general direction is a fact.
In which direction is my equity going to go? Oh now I have to relate general events
to my particular market? A fact of life.
If it was just as easy as David puts it ...
So how relaxing is that. May be time for a collective hhhhhhmmmmmm?????
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Great post, Bigblock! But if would could veer away from your "hmmmmmmm" moment and return to my
"ahhhhhhhhhhh" moment for just one second, I must maintain:
It really is that simple. No really, it is.
But doing things in a simple fashion can take years to learn. In fact, I have recently heard it takes 10,000 hours to master anything. (someone elses number not mine) So while it may be simple it certainly is not easy.
Let's switch the topic to something much more concrete: statues. What did our good friend Michelangelo say that he did when sculpting...? Well, according to him he simply removed every piece of marble that was not the statue. Sounds simple enough right?
Let's see, how many steps did he give us?
1. Get marble from Home Depot.
2. Buy chisel, etc. from Home Depot
3. Remove non statue elements from marble.
Sound simple enough, yes? I think so. But let me get a slab of marble and some tools and see how many "David's" pop out of there. I'm guessing, not many. But what do I know. I've never tried. i might be a natural.
Regarding market correlation, my thorough research seems to indicate that 3/4 of all stocks follow the market not 2/3. However, in this market it might be closer to 99.9999999999%. (that was a joke)(the 99.999999% not the 3/4).
But in any event, say it was only 2/3 -- I'd still have to say that a 66% chance of anything happening in the market is a pretty good edge. Honestly, if you told me there was a 66% chance of lightening hitting me the next time I left the house I would NOT be going anywhere for a long time!
Now, as far as how far a stock will move, if you say that you can predict that, then more power to you. Certainly volatility and beta will give clues, but honestly...I leave the predictions to those among us that got a crystal ball for their birthdays. I can promise you it wasn't me.
So if you remove prediction, what's left: what is happening NOW.
As far as I am concerned there will always be those who take the simple and make it complicated. I mean, that is a fantastic way to make any one look good. If i could convince people that tying shoelaces was impossible, then they would think I'm a genius every time I do it. From what I understand, bottled water is only slightly more healthy than tap water. Yet someone figured out how to package it and sell it back to us for $1-$3 a bottle -- that which we can get for free!
So once again, i would have to say:
1. If the market continues lower, go short.
2. If the market turns around, go long.
And if you don't have a method that tells you which way its going when its going that way I would work to develop one.
If you don't believe that stocks are correlated to the index then I would still suggest learning how to determine the trends of the individual stocks you trade.
When looking at a chart I believe I am best served when I ask: Is the CURRENT trend up, down or sideways.
When looking at a chart I am worst served when I ask: how can I predict where this stock will be tomorrow.
If fundamental analysis helps you determine the trend and has PROVEN itself to you to be successful for you, then I would use fundamental analysis. If technical analysis has PROVEN itself to you to be successful then I would use technical analysis. If a combination of fundamental analysis and technical analysis has PROVEN itself to be successful then I would use a combination of technical and fundamanetal analysis.
If tea leaves, fairy dust, cloud patterns, trances, peace pipes, or spinning the bottle (worked for me in 5th grade) has PROVEN itself to you to be successful then I would use those methods. The key here is to find what works for you and to use it to make money.
I have presented one way. It's simple. And it makes me go: ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh. But believe me, there have been many stressful days getting here. i am sure there will be stressful days to follow. I am also sure that sharing ideas and forming discussions with the great traders here have helped make all the difference.
David John Hall
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Check the tsunami waves that are around the corner and ready to hit as hard or harder than subprime hit.
You can find the info here: http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=37012
Let me know if your POLL results are kind of changed in view of the information you are going to find at the link.
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A couple of elements need to be added below:
HOUSING - has it improve?
CONSUMER has it improved?
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?
TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?
UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?
HEALTH CARE has it improved?
IRAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?
LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?
EDUCATION
MANUFACTURING
Always in a hurry, what can I say.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"HOUSING - has it improve?"
Yes. Houses are going to the value they should be.
(Please don't tell me you want them to go up.
You want the bubble to continue?)
"CONSUMER has it improved?"
Well holiday sales were up 3% so I guess the
answer is yes. However much more important
is the fact that the consumer is learning houses
and cars don't grow on trees.
(otherwise Ford, GM, and "the housing sector"
wouldn't be having any problems)
That's always good
"CREDIT DEBT has it improved?"
Yes. See above.
(Wow, one day we may have that thing called savings)
"TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?"
Nonsequitur. Anyone who knows about "deficits" knows the
economy grew more out of high deficits than
"balanced". (check the record)
Remember when Clinton "balanced the budget"? Well as
he left office that led to our first recession.
(and its been wonderful ever since)
Wonder why we didn't have fantastic growth?
"UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?"
Compared to who and what? It was just at
record levels at the cycle top as it should be.
Are you expecting it to improve in a recession?
Silly. Weak.
"HEALTH CARE has it improved?"
I'd say its the same but I'm not really sure what this
has to do with the "sub-prime" problem?
I guess this is what one who grasps at straws
must come up with to say something negative.
Silly. Weak. Again.
"IRMAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?"
It depends on who's side your on. I'm sure there
are terrorists who aren't happy. (or dead)
I'm sure they preferred the Clinton/Carter method.
(of course this also has nothing to do with sub-prime.
When one learns a tune. Its sometimes difficult
to get the song out of your head)
"LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?"
Did you prefer the banks when they were frozen?
Unfortunately we don't get to make interest rates 25%
crash the banking system. Throw the economy
into the great depression. Then do an A/B comparison.
Then say ooops maybe lower was better.
You see Bigblock real leaders have to make real decisions.
They don't get to manage the economy from their
lazy-boy recliner and cry about what they like or don't like.
With an attitude of screw everyone else. Its all about me!!!!
"EDUCATION"
Now this is a problem. We are being taught more and more
that the government is a better mommy and daddy than your
parents. That profit and loss is risky and we need safety and
equality. If someone makes a profit its "unfair".
Let me know when we run a race and all cross the finish
line at the same time.
"MANUFACTURING"
Well lets just say that when you give your people
poverty and starvation. You have a manufacturing
advantage.
When you can pay an employee (I use that term loosely)
$10 a month and its a deal! You have a manufacturing
advantage.
Now this can be solved in one of two ways. The rest of
world could move toward wealth, freedom and acceptable
standards of living or we could bring massive poverty and
starvation to America so that we could compete.
Which would you prefer?
Interesting how you always manage to leave out the
problems and living standards in the rest of the world.
Remember that place called Iceland? I heard it was nice once.
Unfortunately your analysis (if we can call it that) always
disappoints.
Don't you know any other tunes?
Maybe a nice waltz or tango?
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Well ....
Whatever the problems ...
I'm sure that they will all be fixed on January 20th ....
So ... "Go Long Young Man ... Go Long" ...
And for those who think that labor unions are such a wonderful thing ... then invest in truck lines, airlines, automakers ... show your support ... i.e. put your money where your mouth is ...
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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BB,
You know as well as anyone that the markets are forward thinking by at least 6 months. It doesn't matter if those sectors have improved or are doing great currently, it matters if the market THINKS they will improve. I use charts to guage whether the market thinks those sectors will improve. If they go up it doesn't tell me that the market is happy with itself now, it means it thinks it will be happy with itself 6 months from now. Of course, that manic opinion of itself is always changing and that uncertainty, and the future bets placed on it, gives us an arena in which to trade. Certain (scholars) believe we all act on all known information instead of hopes, fears, dreams. Not as far as I am concerned.
When you called your top, it was during times of optimism and buying...but your analysis concluded that 6 months out the market would not be happy with itself. And it wasn't. So I assume you're saying six months out from now the market will be even unhappier. Fair enough. We all have a right to our analysis.
David John Hall
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QUOTE (diceman)
"HOUSING - has it improve?"
Yes. Houses are going to the value they should be.
(Please don't tell me you want them to go up.
You want the bubble to continue?)
"CONSUMER has it improved?"
Well holiday sales were up 3% so I guess the
answer is yes. However much more important
is the fact that the consumer is learning houses
and cars don't grow on trees.
(otherwise Ford, GM, and "the housing sector"
wouldn't be having any problems)
That's always good
"CREDIT DEBT has it improved?"
Yes. See above.
(Wow, one day we may have that thing called savings)
"TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?"
Nonsequitur. Anyone who knows about "deficits" knows the
economy grew more out of high deficits than
"balanced". (check the record)
Remember when Clinton "balanced the budget"? Well as
he left office that led to our first recession.
(and its been wonderful ever since)
Wonder why we didn't have fantastic growth?
"UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?"
Compared to who and what? It was just at
record levels at the cycle top as it should be.
Are you expecting it to improve in a recession?
Silly. Weak.
"HEALTH CARE has it improved?"
I'd say its the same but I'm not really sure what this
has to do with the "sub-prime" problem?
I guess this is what one who grasps at straws
must come up with to say something negative.
Silly. Weak. Again.
"IRMAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?"
It depends on who's side your on. I'm sure there
are terrorists who aren't happy. (or dead)
I'm sure they preferred the Clinton/Carter method.
(of course this also has nothing to do with sub-prime.
When one learns a tune. Its sometimes difficult
to get the song out of your head)
"LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?"
Did you prefer the banks when they were frozen?
Unfortunately we don't get to make interest rates 25%
crash the banking system. Throw the economy
into the great depression. Then do an A/B comparison.
Then say ooops maybe lower was better.
You see Bigblock real leaders have to make real decisions.
They don't get to manage the economy from their
lazy-boy recliner and cry about what they like or don't like.
With an attitude of screw everyone else. Its all about me!!!!
"EDUCATION"
Now this is a problem. We are being taught more and more
that the government is a better mommy and daddy than your
parents. That profit and loss is risky and we need safety and
equality. If someone makes a profit its "unfair".
Let me know when we run a race and all cross the finish
line at the same time.
"MANUFACTURING"
Well lets just say that when you give your people
poverty and starvation. You have a manufacturing
advantage.
When you can pay an employee (I use that term loosely)
$10 a month and its a deal! You have a manufacturing
advantage.
Now this can be solved in one of two ways. The rest of
world could move toward wealth, freedom and acceptable
standards of living or we could bring massive poverty and
starvation to America so that we could compete.
Which would you prefer?
Interesting how you always manage to leave out the
problems and living standards in the rest of the world.
Remember that place called Iceland? I heard it was nice once.
Unfortunately your analysis (if we can call it that) always
disappoints.
Don't you know any other tunes?
Maybe a nice waltz or tango?
Thanks
diceman
Well Diceman you must be having a bad day today. What happened? The market didn't treat you with respect?
This is what I have to say to your ridiculous respond.
I have plenty of tunes for my favorite poet. My analysis as it is didn't dissapoint anyone when I called the market top - remember? Let me refresh your memory exactly on November 26, 2007.
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=27125
the problem may be with the reader, as I cannot control his/her ignorance, and I am not interested in doing so. That is the reader's problem as well as the decisions they make as traders.
I brought you the top, and I will bring you the bottom - Mark my words. The question is whether you will listen or not.
Now, as for your reply goes it is as flawed as you are. I think you better stick to your poetry - Poev.
Lets take item by item:
"HOUSING - has it improve?"
Yes. Houses are going to the value they should be.
(Please don't tell me you want them to go up.
You want the bubble to continue?)
Really! improve! What about the 5 million homes still unsold? how is that an improvement in our economy? What about the problem it is creating for the builders? How is that any improvement?
Also how are lower prices improving the equity of this country. Not to mention the market has already lost one of the greatest amount of wealth in the history of economics ADD to that the equity loss in the decline of housing prices. The bubble wasn't created by the housed themselve, BUT by your banking system (LOANS).
Of course I want them to go up - who doesn't? What I don't want is people who cannot afford them, and banks profiting by doing just that - giving people loans they cannot afford just to make the commision.
"CONSUMER has it improved?"
Well holiday sales were up 3% so I guess the
answer is yes. However much more important
is the fact that the consumer is learning houses
and cars don't grow on trees.
(otherwise Ford, GM, and "the housing sector"
wouldn't be having any problems)
That's always good
Oh! Come on. Anyone who knows anything - knows that this really is the worst ever season for retailers.
Go and take a walk at the mall - and see for yourself.
Where do you get you facts from? You already have the holiday sales? Well the holidays are not even over. You must be some smart cookie.
The consumer hasn't learned anything - they never do. They are like little puppets who do as they are told. All they know now is that they are suppose to be scared, and that times are tuff.
The problems that the 3 big are having have to do a lot with the subprime mess - remember? GMAC? sounds a bell? It just didn't happen now
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?"
Yes. See above.
(Wow, one day we may have that thing called savings)
Ditto. See above. By the way, that day is in a very very very distant future. If it ever comes.
Credit card defaults haven't hit the ceiling yet. When they do come and tell me all about it.
Did you forget that folks have to pay their debt with interest first, and then save.
But also don't forget the bail out packages served by your government - who do you think is going to pay for that?
So what is the improvement???
"TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?"
Nonsequitur. Anyone who knows about "deficits" knows the
economy grew more out of high deficits than
"balanced". (check the record)
Remember when Clinton "balanced the budget"? Well as
he left office that led to our first recession.
(and its been wonderful ever since)
Wonder why we didn't have fantastic growth?
The economy grew? Listen fellow the last 5 yrs this economy grew on fumes. Those fumes were called subprime. There was nothing left but the equity left in homes. That is gone now too.
Who decided to carry on an empty strike on the sovereign nation of IRAK? I think his name is George Bush. Is he a democrat???
I belive that war is responsible for the biggest national debt ever - so much for trying to stick it to Clinton.
The recession after Clinton is going to look to you as goldy locks compared to what is coming.
"LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?"
Did you prefer the banks when they were frozen?
Unfortunately we don't get to make interest rates 25%
crash the banking system. Throw the economy
into the great depression. Then do an A/B comparison.
Then say ooops maybe lower was better.
You see Bigblock real leaders have to make real decisions.
They don't get to manage the economy from their
lazy-boy recliner and cry about what they like or don't like.
With an attitude of screw everyone else. Its all about me!!!!
The banks are still frozen. In fact you should ask your body Mr. Mauldin what is going on with the T-bills. He may be able to give you a hint.
Why don't you ask the leaders the rationale behing trying to fix a problem in the same fashion in which it was created - easy money.
Why don't you ask the leaders how much more printing they are willing to do at our expense?
And since you are at it, why don't you look at history and see what happen to the markets when the interest rates went down.
"They don't get to manage the economy from their
lazy-boy recliner and cry about what they like or don't like.
With an attitude of screw everyone else. Its all about me!!!!"
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY DO. I must conclude you are very naive.
EDUCATION"
Now this is a problem. We are being taught more and more
that the government is a better mommy and daddy than your
parents. That profit and loss is risky and we need safety and
equality. If someone makes a profit its "unfair".
Let me know when we run a race and all cross the finish
line at the same time.
We don' t even agree on this one. This is not a problem - This is a catastrophe.
The rest of the world is supassing us in education quality, and affordability.
We can't even get our youth to graduate from highschool - the greates rate of
drop outs of any developed nation.
How about that? That is a shame, while the government gets to waste our tax money
without the tax payer consent in wars, bailouts, and corruption.
Cross the finish line at the same time?
A lot of folks are not crossing any finish lines at all - starting with teens.
MANUFACTURING"
Well lets just say that when you give your people
poverty and starvation. You have a manufacturing
advantage.
When you can pay an employee (I use that term loosely)
$10 a month and its a deal! You have a manufacturing
advantage.
Now this can be solved in one of two ways. The rest of
world could move toward wealth, freedom and acceptable
standards of living or we could bring massive poverty and
starvation to America so that we could compete.
Which would you prefer?
Obviously globalization never benefited the worker - Hence the inclusion in the list.
If you are going to pay a manufacturing worker
$14 / hr THEN you got to make possible for him to make a living on that wage. It is a fact that manufacturing is down in the gutter - still wondering why?
And it will get worse. That is why it is in the list along with all of the above.
It seems that none of them are really improving.
Do you have anything better to offer? a better tune? May be a nice waltz or tango
Bigblock.
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Registered User
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Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (davidjohnhall) BB,
You know as well as anyone that the markets are forward thinking by at least 6 months. It doesn't matter if those sectors have improved or are doing great currently, it matters if the market THINKS they will improve. I use charts to guage whether the market thinks those sectors will improve. If they go up it doesn't tell me that the market is happy with itself now, it means it thinks it will be happy with itself 6 months from now. Of course, that manic opinion of itself is always changing and that uncertainty, and the future bets placed on it, gives us an arena in which to trade. Certain (scholars) believe we all act on all known information instead of hopes, fears, dreams. Not as far as I am concerned.
When you called your top, it was during times of optimism and buying...but your analysis concluded that 6 months out the market would not be happy with itself. And it wasn't. So I assume you're saying six months out from now the market will be even unhappier. Fair enough. We all have a right to our analysis.
David John Hall
Hey David, that is an old said - "The market is 6 month ahead". Yeah, may be in the past - not anymore.
The market can't figure out from today tomorrow in this enviroment. Much less 6 month in advance.
Especulation perhaps - not facts.
I especulate that in 6 month we will be in worse shape than we are currently in. Check my "Market Analysis III" - we have 2 more Tsunamy waves coming starting this coming year (A-alt and Options ARMs) hitting with the same intensity that the subprime did. Considering the holding power we currently have - the damage may be even greater.
For the folks the think the economy, and the market are going to be back anytime soon - I should say Wake UP. It is going to take years to get out of this one. The hole was digged just way too deep.
For those who think Obama is the golden boy, I would say to them - Think Again, but really think.
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QUOTE (BigBlock) For those who think Obama is the golden boy, I would say to them - Think Again, but really think.
Hell ... Your posts sounded like you thought he was the golden boy ....
That his socailist thinking is just what a capitalist society needed to get back on the road to prosperity ....
Have you ever considered that possibly both you & DJH are right ?
That although we may be having a brief bear market rally ... that the market has been "forward looking" ever since Obama became the presumptive Democratic canidate ?
With history showing us very clearly ... that the incumbent party virtually ALWAYS gets thrown out of office when there is a recession in an election year ?
Is it possible ... that the market is not only reacting to the current crisis ... but also to the prospects of the last bastian of capitalism turning to socialism ??
Perhaps the market is forward looking ... and perhaps it is telling us that socialism is not going to be very good for the US ...
Perhaps it is telling us that higher tax rates ... and more social spending ... and stonger labor unions ... is not going to do very much to promote a growing economy ... and lure manufacturing back to the US ...
Perhaps ... just perhaps ... the change that everyone wanted so badly ... was actually a change for the worse ...
I hear a lot of people say ... "Things couldn't get any worse !"
To which I respond ... "Did you eat today?"
And when they say "Yes" ... I say ... "Then things can get worse ... can't they ?"
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I don't get it reality?'
Communism good for China, bad for America?
Thanks
diceman
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