Baquilesb, while I respect your opinions, I'll throw my two cents out for all and sundry.

The supports we recently fell to and broke into (before ramping a little ) are, mathematically, the same supports broken down upon in 1974.   Should we fail to form a real bottom over the next 200 days...the next targets are 1974 levels....which would be substantially lower than multiple thousands on the DJ-30.  In short, the process begun in November has to hold the 7500 zone and then trade in a wide range (by yesteryears standards) getting stronger rather than weaker.  Odds on that happening given the citizenry's failure to take back the reigns of power?  Slim to none.

It is interesting to note the debasement that occured in the 1970's was limited to hollowing out the 'dollar', and killing the 'heretic' in SE Asia.  Todays debasements are the hollowing out of those entities in which a modicum of real 'wealth' yet exists and is stored (in the form of savings/retirement plans/businesses/homes and base capital), as well as killing the 'heretic' in the ME.  The final 'debasement' will conclude with elliminating the 'heretics' in the nominally protestant West, none of whom wear turbans.  The intelligent speculator would have a plan A, B, and C in place.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving and at least ponder the outside possibility that Rome does not have your best interests at heart..  Failing to do this, it would at least benefit one to check muckety.com before investing in some of the shells that the wrong crowd have already hollowed out for the next implosion - regardless of overall market direction. 

Awshuck

Ok I had a chance to take a look at that historical chart.  Everything is possible, but I must say that arriving to 70's levels is a very remote posibility in my book - that is a subtrending support.
The 6700 level in the Dow I mentioned in the prior thread of market analysis as a much more obtainable goal.  
If the 6700 level is broken, then there is some resistant levels at about 5500, and a a little more at about 3700.  At that point we would be at about 75% lower from top of 14000, and would  have to work  down through the trend of the 80's to reach those 70's sublevels.
I can see declining to the mid 90's levels and then resuming back to the primary trend of the 80's.  

Awshuck I understand what you are saying - but we still have to break a lot of supports to reach where you are saying.  Personally I do not really see that happening - BUT never say never.
Besides it is too early to draw that possibility.
This is what I currently see as possibly developing before resuming to an uptrend.  I will display in the chart below - by the way that is a 9 day chart.  It wouldn't make a difference for what I am saying.
I speculate the support from last bear to break.  I speculate the support trend to break.    I speculate the 6700 to be reached, and then a whipsaw to the 4000 level possible that will retrace back to the support trend to resume an uptrend on that support trend line comming from the 80's.

Ok BB.  I try to leave out personal bias as to what I think is 'obtainable' in a market environment.  I make more money when I stick to the math.  If this is similar to a 1929 event, then a simple fibo retrace from march of 29 to absolute bottom, noting the percentage level where the fractal hit its first tradeable ledge...and then doing something similar on the present charts (assuming we're forming a tradeable ledge)...would give you an acceptable long range target.  If this event is more reminiscent of '37...then the process would be similar and the final the target would be higher and closer to your 6700 zone.

You'll know the severity of the planned drop by the nature of the positioning move for it.  A 'tear your face off rally from this zone would be negative, imo.

As I view what is occuring as only one prong of a military campaign...and our money is worth nothing...my targets are lower than the lows in '87.

When you abandon the limited hangout and go to first causes, you don't listen to the memes.

When you abandon the limited hangout and go to first causes, you don't listen to the memes.

QUOTE (realitycheck)

You fellows amaze me with the technicals ... but if I may ... I'd like to inject just a bit fundamenatlism in here ...

If you look at graphs of US govt debt .... and US Individual debt ... it becomes somewhat obvious that a good part of the wonderful things that we've seen in the growth of the US economy ... and the growth of the US markets ... over the last quarter of a century has largely been driven by debt ....

Now ... the American consumer ... who represents 70%+ of our economy ... has largely reached his debt service limits ...

So ... the question becomes ... where will the money come from to drive the recovery ?

It's probably not going to be from our growing manufacturing base ....

These ingredients will trump the technical’s and drive the stock market down and put us into a recession every time.

This is not your everyday stock market that pays a lot of attention to support lines and normal ta but instead is driven by fear.

This post comes from the thread "POLL".  I thought it should also be here so we can keep track of things on a single place.

Well I have to get my old list out here and check the items - it is getting harder to keep track of so much.
Over a year ago (10/12/07) in the virge of a presentation I wrote this list to keep track of things and some how I managed to keep this list around until now.  It is writen by hand on an odd piece of paper.  It is nice to see where your line of thought was a year later, and also it tremendously helps in tracking where improvements or deterioration is taking place.

HOUSING - has it improve?
CONSUMER has it improved?
CREDIT DEBT has it improved?
TRADE DEFICIT has it improved?
UNEMPLOYMENT has it improved?
HEALTH CARE has it improved?
IRAK / ALGANISHTAN WAR has it improved?
LOWER INTEREST RATES have they helped?

Lets add to that the Billions that the government has given to our banks without terms.
Lets add the lost of confidence created at the corporate, as well as consumer levels
It is said that the consumer has to believe the economy before they buy it - Is the cosumer believing?

MANUFACTURING - has it improved? We are close to letting a back bone industry evaporate along with hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Congress asks accountability from auto makers.  WHY didn't they do the same with the banks, which got us into this mess to beging with?

How do you explain?  On 11/24/08 we were serving Citigroup 326 Billion to save them from the abyss.
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE for Citigroup to be in the news just a week later for aquisition?
CITI FUND BUYING SPANISH HIGHWAYS FOR $10 BILLION.

INFRASTRUCTURE - (referring to the infrastructure of our bridges, roads, etc).  has it improved?
Then we have tax payer bailed out entities as Citi which think it is more attractive to buy infrastructure over seas with money they don't have than to invest on their own land.

And well the experts just told us that WE have been in a RECESSION for a whole year - whooopppy!!!  I must go and celebrate for the knowledge and be indebted to them for offering my such a great and usable information.

I view of the facts I especulate that the markets are not done falling - in fact they have a way to go.  There will be fluctuations as always.  I announced you the gingle rally and it came - THIS IS NOT A BOTTOM.
I think I have also announced that to you - refer to "Market Analysis thread(s)".
The recession in not done either - I see that well into the end of 2009 to say the least.  
There is a big variable now - Obama, and we will have to see what changes if any along with the variable.  Just makes it a little harder to project forward.
Once thing is for sure, even if this man was a magician he couldn't change our broken economy in the time you would like him to.

Our system has not broken - It has shattered.  It is my opinion that it would be much better to create a new one than to glue the pieces.  Just too many pieces.

OPEC Chief says cuts are coming.

Some one ask me about this months ago (believe it was Realitychek).  Just like I said in time for the cold season.

There you have it from the chief himself.  It is too bad the chief waited until the last minute.

The Fed will bring interest rates down to 0 fairly soon.  I am assuming we will probably see 30 year mortgages rates falling below 5% - perhaps as low as 4 1/2 %.
How do you think the economy, housing market, and banking may be affected?
Keep in mind that there is no lower ground to go after 0, and keep in mind how this can revolve against the current situation instead of helping the current situation.

Oh come on Reality - They got now the CAR CZAR, and the czar is going to change all production lines into Yugo lines creating the greatest, and most green auto industry in the globe.
The will run as fast and efficient as the M3 presses run by Bernake.
LOL

I am glad the money is coming so.   I think is buying some time for the workers to line up their lives before the tsunamy comes.  I would rather give it to the workers than to the banks.

Yes I believe so funny.  It is probably more in vogue with the new Social Capitalism or should I say Broken Capitalism.

Hey Reality in regards to the Madoff case - as you said "The same folks that he planned to funnel $300 million to before he turned himself in ... I would think ...

His friends ... his family ... and his offshore trusts ..."

But the more interesting thought  is - Madoff head of the Nasdaq Exchange with Billions at his firm disposal could not make "profits" - that is hard to swallow - but if true THEN - who made the profits?
Furthermore, where did the wealth lost in 2008 by US investment banks,  hedge funds, pension funds, individual traders etc,  go?
Money doesn't evaporate.

What are you thoughts?