Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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if it's even worth it.. the whole short term trading thing. I haven't done that well aside from a few select market conditions.
It's really damned expenisve NOT including tax fees software and other crap. often taking a position is more expensife in the miss timed initial attempts than the proffits gained from the actual trade because one volitile day takes you out of the position . Then the next entry is missed because a trend line was broken or something ... further entries are deemd as high risk and price chasing. I wonder if it's isn't all nonesense and psychological hangups.
Buy options to protect the position.. I dunno... but they seem really dificult and not any beter than a raw stop loss in my study. More things to go wrong or cost you money as far as i can tell.
I'm nt talknig just recently during all but the begining of the previous bull market and the few tiems there were momentous price rises I didn't do as well as a trend following system or a longer tiem frame strategy despite all my fancy lines and CRAP on screen.. yet I can't say they haven't been useful.
For reasons unbeknownst to me.. probably mostly psychological and experience related I was not as interested in shorting a falling market as I was looking for the few buy gems. how stupid is that?
I was turned of of looknig at teh short side by the irritating bravado of a few individuals while listenign to the sensible talk of a few others talkign about how there are often buy opportunities that are phenominal even in Bear markets. I've found none of them.. and realize now that this tiem there were indeed few.
so beyond an initial 30% added to my account my first year all this has not financialy been worth it. Reading and learnign and talking to other pro traders and even paid classes, what the hell is the point.
I got to outperform a market whent eh marekt was cruising and mistakes were hard to make solong as you were on the long side. All other more iffy time periods I've underperformed.. Now I haven't been applying high relative strength and some of the newer concepts I've developed to a rising market and that is probalby the issue.. but when I think we have or are due for a rising market I'm great at getting psyched out.
I have these great runs that give me hope that i'm on the right track that things are coming togheather and then follwing the strategy or thinking i'm following my strategy I take equaly dramatic loosing streaks. It's embarasing at this point how many whipsaws I wind up with . With all my swing trading volume I can say it's not worth it unless there is some clue to the whole thing that I"ve been missing all this time. The idea of making a living from trading is almost laughable.
Even my shorts during the biggest bear market of our generation only had a 50% hit rate and gains there were fairly small before getting stopped out.
I know what the goal and the ideal and the theories are .. but for short term I'm beginnign to think that trading and alchemy are one in the same.
I'm sick of speinding a few months putting togeather somethign that I think will work and is valid to have a month to work with it and watch market conditions change and then either watch it's performance drop or something happen between my earls to kill its performance.
professional, proffitable traders, how long did it take you to become sucessful and consistant at trading and what time frames did you eventualy take to begin to make it happen.
I no longer believe that a person can close a net of 5 , 2 point gains a month on a consistant basis.
Is it normal for a strategy to deliver more than 10 loosing trades in a row? and for nearly all of them to be the full amount of the stop loss distance?
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Registered User
Joined: 11/3/2008
Posts: 17
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Scott, longer term trading does pay off more than short term. Try trading off a weekly chart instead of looking at the daily. Use the 50 week sma as a guid to trend.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/18/2008
Posts: 37
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(content removed by Moderator. Soliciting in the Worden discussion forums is not allowed.)
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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its a pretty treacherous market, designed for daytrading. today we got a 7% move in the last 30 minutes of the trading day. the vix hit resistance, the spy 5 minute double-bottomed and boom. these moves just come out of the blue. bears are the most difficult trading environments.
not sure of your strategy, but, i would suggest you take, a "structured", top-down approach, and just trade the indexes or etf's. and with a small portion of your overall portfolio, until you build up some "house" money.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Well Scott I would tend to agree with you.
Of course ultimately its about you. It doesn't matter how
much money I can make. It doesn't matter if short or
long-term is better for me.
I can make a million dollars or go broke. The only thing
that makes you money is what's in your account and
what you do.
I've had plenty of friends who saw what I did as
"easy money". When they tried it they lost money.
They couldn't handle the emotion, they out thunk it,
or they thought they had a better smarter way.
This is just my observation but I think the growth of
technology has forced people into a short-term
mode. Low commissions, fancy screens, instant
trade execution. Its all easy right? On top of that
they have their fib levels. Their last candle pattern
and indicators galore. It cant be wrong can it?
Its just become a random collection of chart setups
and patterns on anything that's traded.
If its any consolation. Statements like "this hasn't been
seen since the 30's". Gives you are idea of the type of
market your in.
Its the nature of the market to change its character.
To make you believe you have it. Then it is something
else.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Scott,
I agree with funnymoney. I've traded pretty much everything, equities, futures, commodities, options, you name it. Right now, with the VIX at insane levels, this is a day traders only market. I am primarily focused on the BGU, BGZ, TNA, TZA, ERX, ERZ, FAS, FAZ 3X ETF's. No matter which way the market is going, one of four of these ETF's are running. I set my volume alarms for 100% over average volume. When my computer starts going nuts, I assess if the market is running for some reason. I am having my best luck by focusing on the 2 PM until close session. Just like clockwork, I've seen the rallies start at 3 PM sharp and run to the close. I dn't know if it is news or program trading by Wall Street. Whatever, I don't care. I'm on for the ride (at 3X) I might trade 2000 per ETF with a $50 stoploss. I then turn the trading over to Tradestation to take out the human emotion. Tradestation will monitor my trade and then exit my position when I hit my exit point (a form of moving adaptive average) or it hits my stoploss . On days like yesterday (Friday 11/21), making $1000 is a piece of cake. The start of the rally at 3PM was so sharp, I had to turn my computer speakers off because my volume alarms were going nuts (pretty good indicator to get into the trade)  As for trading fundamentals and bottom fishing? no way, I lost money trying to do that. Just bring your six shooter and fast computer and don't focus on the whole market, just get good at a small group of stocks. See you at the OK Corral....
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Registered User
Joined: 11/3/2008
Posts: 17
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Thekubiaks, thanks for the post. I too have been focussing on the ETF's . I love it, it is either one way or the other. Scott forget about Daytrading for now and focus on the good advice given here by Thekubiaks, Diceman and Funnymony.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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Scott,I'm sure there's people that can consistently make money day trading, but ultimately your investing style has to suit your personality. I also believe that in order to be consistently successful, you must trade a rules-based system that gives you an edge.I use a longer term strategy pretty much based on the CANSLIM system developed by William O'Neil. This method can generate substantial gains, without even having to be very active at all during market hours.I believe the big gains come from picking stocks that gain hundreds of percent versus daytrading where you snipe a percent here and there and are handcuffed to the market all day every trading day.If you haven't ever explored this method, go pick up "the successful investor" or "how to make money in stocks" by William J O'Neil.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 25
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a question for thekubiaks: could you tell me which etf volume alarmed friday.
You wrote: " I set my volume alarms for 100% over average...." "The start of the rally at 3 PM was so sharp,
I had to trun off my computer speakers ..." thanks....
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"this is a day traders only market."
thekubiaks
I would disagree with you.
We choose to take on the volatility we have.
What people should be saying is something like:
"The way I have chosen to trade only allows me to be a
day trader. Because of the way I have chosen to trade
volatility hurts me."
Too many "laws" are put forth which people must follow.
Then they complain when their laws give them exactly
what was expected.
The market is down. Right?
Strength doesn't work any more. Right?
You cant take a long position in this market. Right?
Volatility is a killer. Right?
You cant hold positions for more than a day or 2. Right?
(getting out at the close is most preferable)
If you cant see what's wrong with the above statements
or what you can do. Then you don't realize all the options
at your disposal. You are not thinking about the market
and too busy following conventional wisdom.
(and the laws/rules you have put forth)
Its funny. I've said this many times here. We are supposed to
be contrary players in the market. Then all people want is
agreement.
Say: "I think differently" and you must be mocked, ridiculed.
(if you disagree with me you cant possibly know what you are
doing. Right?)
Are you guys that threatened by other ideas?
Is your glass house that afraid of my stones?
90% of the arguments here the past year have been along
the lines of. "You cant do that", "If I don't use that indicator you cant",
"What do you know"
Its funny. When someone says something that knocks me off my
chair. I tend to look at is as "what did I miss", "What can I learn"
When someone uses an indicator I hate. I try to look at
what they are doing differently.
To me its is a sign of great weakness to see other ideas as a
threat.
I am most comfortable when I think alone. I get really, really nervous
when everyone agrees with me. I'm the type when someone says
that cant be done. I enjoy doing it. (in fact it feels that much better)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Thanks for the responses guys.
yes i'm on yahoo. However I have little interest in day trading. I prefer the swing stuff but I"m not kiding when I think that it is over inflated. Granted I was looking at intra day charts and looking for the price patterns and candle sticks or previous day high breeches.
I"ve never used the price chanels or any other more foccused systems. I would need it to be objective and clear when I pull the trigger or not.
I'm wondering if I can overcome my aversion to losses and start trend following. It seems that historicaly that is where the big money is. I used to like the idea of day trading But I dunno. and with a child at home that can't work out well. YOu need to treat it like a job and be there.. but if it's feeding time and baby refuses to eat I can't leave her in the high chair to run to manage a trade. No can do No will do.
MAYBEE if I knew i'd have a positive edge strategy that covers a broad spectrum on enviroments and used a daycare then I might consider it... but I have the feeling that making money at day trading is as much a crap shoot as crap shooitng. There are possibilities that I think might work but they again require me to be locked to the computer, and the one that jumps outmost in my mind requires the use and learning of new tools and features as well as their configuration.
I've read canslim and consider using it as a backbone to my approach when this is allover. Dan Zanger was able to do amazing thigns with canslim.
Which beggs the question why don't I just wait till a better enviroment? Well doing that would mean dropping TC temporarily and that would bean loosing my current Blocks rate pluss I know there are opportunities all the time.
USO AND JRCC for example put in some amazing trends ... and I was comitted to shorting them but I wound up loosing money on the deal or watchign ir slip past me.. gaping past my entry order and with such spreads that I felt like I was chasing a speeding bullet. Hate to catch that in the teeth ! BUT they colapsed. DUG was lovely but such a choppy and sloppy pattern I can't find any managemetn menthods that wouldhave not had me in and out a dozzen time beyond buy and hold.
I dunno I"m just feeling whiny. I know I have good ideas. I also know that most of my activity has been buyign the falling market .. now that there is a huge spread on the MMA's i'm looking into shorting breakouts.. how smart is that. If I stay consistant i'll eventually be right again and then i'll reclaim my lost ground.. and miss the aspect of eitehr changing direction or again 3 days of wild folitility and whipsaws will put me right back at prior levels. Judging by my equity line i'm dure for a breakout... a velocitous move in one direction or another. hope it isn't down.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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I am not trying to step on anyones toes with my talk of daytrading. Everyone has their own style. Personally, I've spent hundreds of hours reading posts on this forum and trying to understand the formulas and patterns that some of the more seasoned guys are doing. After 20 years of trading, I just can't be sucessful with technical indicators alone. I do use them for support and resistance levels (basically to watch for psychological reactions from the crowd) Other than that, I'm a momentum day trader. It's what I am doing well with. Since I have learned some things from this forum, I thought I'd share my system.
I'm not going to argue the merits of what works and doesn't work. I'm happy with my style of trading. bring on the volatility!!!!!!!!! Regards.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (diceman)
I've had plenty of friends who saw what I did as
"easy money". When they tried it they lost money.
They couldn't handle the emotion, they out thunk it,
or they thought they had a better smarter way.
Thanks
diceman
So ... so ... true ...
Scott ...
I told you long ago about the stresses and frustrations that I faced during the early days of my trading ... and that if found yourself getting to the point where I was ... it just wasn't worth it ...
And I'm not going to tell you that it was all my "skill" that got me through it ... as trading within the largest bull market in history forgave much of my early stupidity ...
99% of the people who attempt this game will fail ... and probably 10% of those will admit it ... most would rather have you believe that they are some sort of "master trader" ... rather than a failure ...
As bb said ... there are some trading rooms where you can observe ... and see what it takes to be a daytrader ... but I have no desire to ever again endure that .... you may be able to take the emotion out of the trade ... but you can't take it out of the trader ...
For me ... I have reached that "If I just don't screw this up" point ...
So ... I concentrate on the bigger picture ... keeping up with the macroeconomic picture ... looking to buy markets that are low ... when my currency is high ...
Looking to short markets that are high ... when my currency is weak ...
And this leads to only about 3-4 "repositonings" per year ... but a constant thirst for economic news ...
Virtually all "get rich quick schemes" ... are actually "get poor quicker schemes" ....
You have to decide .... if it's not working ... for God's sake ... STOP !
For me ... a return of roughly 23% on my entire portfolio during one of the worst market years in history ...
Just leaves me tickled to death ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (klynn55) a question for thekubiaks: could you tell me which etf volume alarmed friday.
You wrote: " I set my volume alarms for 100% over average...." "The start of the rally at 3 PM was so sharp,
I had to trun off my computer speakers ..." thanks....
Use your favorite program (I use Tradestation) to scan one minute charts for a 100% jump (double the average) in volume. When a rally starts, the volume usually is the first to jump. For me, I set my volume alarm to signal when the current volume is double the average trading volume (over the last 200 minutes), I cut out a lot of false alarms by setting the alarm to look for double volume but it gets me looking at the charts in a timely manner. Actually, the volume triples and quadripled right at the beginning of the rallies in my ETF's. Go back thru the last two weeks rallies and sell-offs. Note the volume spikes at the beginning of the rallies and set your alarms accordingly.
YMMV (your mileage may vary)
Regards
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (diceman)
"this is a day traders only market."
thekubiaks
I would disagree with you.
We choose to take on the volatility we have.
What people should be saying is something like:
"The way I have chosen to trade only allows me to be a
day trader. Because of the way I have chosen to trade
volatility hurts me."
Too many "laws" are put forth which people must follow.
Then they complain when their laws give them exactly
what was expected.
The market is down. Right?
Strength doesn't work any more. Right?
You cant take a long position in this market. Right?
Volatility is a killer. Right?
You cant hold positions for more than a day or 2. Right?
(getting out at the close is most preferable)
If you cant see what's wrong with the above statements
or what you can do. Then you don't realize all the options
at your disposal. You are not thinking about the market
and too busy following conventional wisdom.
(and the laws/rules you have put forth)
Its funny. I've said this many times here. We are supposed to
be contrary players in the market. Then all people want is
agreement.
Say: "I think differently" and you must be mocked, ridiculed.
(if you disagree with me you cant possibly know what you are
doing. Right?)
Are you guys that threatened by other ideas?
Is your glass house that afraid of my stones?
90% of the arguments here the past year have been along
the lines of. "You cant do that", "If I don't use that indicator you cant",
"What do you know"
Its funny. When someone says something that knocks me off my
chair. I tend to look at is as "what did I miss", "What can I learn"
When someone uses an indicator I hate. I try to look at
what they are doing differently.
To me its is a sign of great weakness to see other ideas as a
threat.
I am most comfortable when I think alone. I get really, really nervous
when everyone agrees with me. I'm the type when someone says
that cant be done. I enjoy doing it. (in fact it feels that much better)
Thanks
diceman
diceman, I don't quite understand your post, maybe I'm just dense?? Particularly the mocked, ridiculed stuff.... I must have hit a nerve. The good news is you don't have to be nervous becasue I don't agree with you. But, I do enjoy your market analysis and posts, there is a lot I can learn and I enjoy your point of reference. Good luck in your trading...
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Registered User
Joined: 11/22/2008
Posts: 1
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Scott, please don't give up!!!
We need traders like you. Where else would the money come from?
GLTA
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Registered User
Joined: 11/3/2008
Posts: 17
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
99% of the people who attempt this game will fail ... and probably 10% of those will admit it ... most would rather have you believe that they are some sort of "master trader" ... rather than a failure ...
Scott this is one area that I do agree with RC on. That you never know to which you are talking to. I post on many forums and e-mail many friends. I have come to believe that the fakes or wanna-bee's are the ones that no matter how much you ask for details, they just will not share. I mentor a few good folks and have openly shared my many styles on multiple threads, it always makes me feel good when they understand my methods and find success using them. Some good friends I will even mentor free of charge when I have the time. Why some choose not to share leaves me to only wonder why??
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Registered User
Joined: 11/18/2008
Posts: 37
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Alright then Scott, as I understand you are not interested in helping yourself, and therefore I will not contact you. Perhaps is a good choice for you if you cannot dedicate yourself a full time job as daytrading. All folks I have meet up to this day who think they can take on day trading as a partime activity or as a side hobby, or whatever you like to called - HAVE FAILED.
A day trader must grab the bull by the horns. This job is at the least full time, and you must be there at that terminal watching, thinking, anticipating - just like a cheetah hunts in the Savannas.
What I like to say in defend to some comments here, is that what I offered you was real. The folks I was going to refer you - trade in real time, and you can see their trades via cameras and of course having access to level II and Time of Sales you can see the orders entering the markets. They also provide real time comunications via microphone and chat during slow times in the markets when trading is down. The thing to keep in mind is that If you lose money by copying their trades that means that they would be losing too. Not something they stand for. So as you can see it is straight and transparent - no deceptions as some here have tried to imply. Nontheless I respect your decision and wish you the best.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I'm interested in anything that will help and improve .. preferably NOT day trading. I don't need that stress but if it works it works and that is somethign different.
tyijaiono
Ha ha ... thanks. I never said I ws going to give up but when I make my comeback and I usualy do, look out.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"diceman, I don't quite understand your post, maybe I'm just dense?? Particularly the mocked, ridiculed stuff...."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where were you when everyone was getting banned?
(heh, heh)
There are all types of versions of this and levels of it.
I guess a good example was the VSA thread. It was almost as
if it didn't merit discussion. Why? Lets say it stinks. Lets say
it doesn't work.
Cant we even look?
Remember why something fails is also important.
(there's others I wont bring up because it will probably start
world war 3)
For reasons I don't understand. Tech analysis seems to go here
the way political discussions do in other places.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think thekubiaks response was excellent:
"I am not trying to step on anyones toes with my talk of daytrading."
"Everyone has their own style."
"I'm not going to argue the merits of what works and doesn't work."
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Scott;
You're almost there. Now is not the time to give up. Take this outside the context of trading and look at life in general; so many people give up just before they are about to make it. It seems to be a universal principle that the darkness is, indeed, darkest just before the dawn.
Giving up now might be a huge mistake for you. That does not, however, imply that you should keep on in the same manner. I would, respectfully, offer a couple of suggestions (I've said these to you before):
1. Once and for all, take the time to put your trading/investing goals in writing. You will be amazed at what you will learn about yourself when you force yourself to take the time to put your thoughts on paper. This also helps to ferret out the areas that you thought you had thought through but really hadn't. I'll repeat my old phrase once again, If you can't put it in writing, you don't understand it.
2. Figure out which type of trading style will best help you reach your goals.
3. Put in writing the system that you will use to achieve your goals.
4. Review what you have written, at minimum, weekly. Make notes, update, revise as needed.
5. Follow your system. Stick with your system. If you've shown it to work, don't 2nd guess it. Follow your rules. Don't change midstream because of your gut; stick to the plan.
6. Keep recording the results. Journal your findings. Get to know your system inside and out.
7. Force yourself to stay with your system until you know it so well you can teach someone else to do it.
8. The system must include market and sector trend analysis, entries (when and how) as well as exits.
Scott, I've said to you before, you're all over the map. You're constantly "playing" (your words, not mine) with a new strategy, indicator, results of a book you've read, etc. And I've told you that, eventually, it was going to beat you up.
Well, now it's happened. Good. You're ready for the next level. Man up, it's time.
All the best, your friend,
tobydad
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way, my thoughts and opinions do not come from a master trader but from someone who has experienced losing an amount equal to the annual income of the average American household and persevered to learning to average a 7% monthly return (and still gets beat up pretty badly from time to time just like everyone else).
tobydad
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Registered User
Joined: 11/3/2008
Posts: 17
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Wise words and I 2nd Tobydads thoughtfull and caring words. Hang in there Scott, we have all watched you from the sidelines and are still cheering you on.
Consider paper trading durring these ruff markets. I have stoped midstream to do just that in my early years. When that moment comes then you will know and then life is great.
I follow some of your trades that you highlight on the other forum and I see the mistakes that you are making, but I do not speak up anymore for fear of losing our friendship.
You will get there just follow Tobydads advice....
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"most would rather have you believe that they are some sort of "master trader" ... rather than a failure ..."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you've seen enough stuff and have done enough things. You tend
to learn that regardless of what is thought, the opposite is typically true.
When it comes to trading we use a lot of battle/war phrases:
My trading "arsenal".
I will take no "prisoners"
Keep your "powder" dry..
My indicators are the "weapons" I will use in the
"battle" for profit.
I made a "killing" in the market.
The truth is it probably takes a lot more courage to admit what
you don't know.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
People pretend they are done. "I've seen it all done it all and there
is nothing left to learn. You cant tell me something I don't know".
Its been my experience that the more you learn the more questions
you have.( or at least should)
I think that's why Einstein discovered the Theory of Relativity but
got "stuck" on the Unified Field Theory.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Tobydad, Thanks for your response. I never intended to give up in the sense of give up.. but to turn my back on short term objectives.
QUOTE (tobydad) Scott;
You're almost there. Now is not the time to give up. Take this outside the context of trading and look at life in general; so many people give up just before they are about to make it. It seems to be a universal principle that the darkness is, indeed, darkest just before the dawn.
Giving up now might be a huge mistake for you. That does not, however, imply that you should keep on in the same manner. I would, respectfully, offer a couple of suggestions (I've said these to you before):
1. Once and for all, take the time to put your trading/investing goals in writing. You will be amazed at what you will learn about yourself when you force yourself to take the time to put your thoughts on paper. This also helps to ferret out the areas that you thought you had thought through but really hadn't. I'll repeat my old phrase once again, If you can't put it in writing, you don't understand it.
done that some time ago. 1. Make a living through trading by closing an average of 5 proffitable (above losses) 2 point or greater trades a month. However you slice it.. 100.008 poitn trades or 1 10pt trade .. I don't care. 2. To build a net worth of 3 mil transfew 2 to a trust that gives income for me and my family and try to do it again with the remainder. Repeat ad infinitum.
2. Figure out which type of trading style will best help you reach your goals.
One that works... or the ability to go with the crowd the bulk of the time and not have me buying a declinign market.
3. Put in writing the system that you will use to achieve your goals.
I still think in a better market enviroment the minl10 and a momentum trend following breakout (opposite tecnical entries) SHOULD do it ina better market. But I also consider a few LONG term purchases.. like a bundle of leaps on index ETF some time next quarter.
4. Review what you have written, at minimum, weekly. Make notes, update, revise as needed.
My pen drawer has a card on top that says "$3m" (not abreviated)
5. Follow your system. Stick with your system. If you've shown it to work, don't 2nd guess it. Follow your rules. Don't change midstream because of your gut; stick to the plan.
Yea.... sensible. BUT over 10 losses in a row is not a good thing. Thing is I was really expecting abigger bounce back there (week or so ago) and underestimated the last broad sell signals that I got. Also while while it's worked it hasn't really been worth it to buy this market.. even the gems or the massive volume divergences (DUG and soon DIG and UYM). Haveing survived 54 losses in a row I can say that I"m more even keeled about looses. BUT I also know the danger that could come. 10 is more than enough to pull the plug.
6. Keep recording the results. Journal your findings. Get to know your system inside and out.
Keep a digital journal and record when and why I got in and out of every trade. Usualy try to go back through them every month or so and review my exits. Thing is since so much of what we do involves the unknown future it's hard to say an exit could have been better or not better because info I acted on at the tiem turned out to be bogus one time and valid another.
7. Force yourself to stay with your system until you know it so well you can teach someone else to do it.
How do you wan't it.. power point? Video capture?
8. The system must include market and sector trend analysis, entries (when and how) as well as exits.
Yup, I assume that most stocks tend to move togeather so I divide the market into 4 classes new 15 bar (day) high low closes and 10 bar reversals. It has called 6 of the last 5 market turns on the dime. some of them haven't been worth messing with. I monitor the SPY trend and hope for that to be in the same buy zone also. IN a better enviroment it's traded over a list of spy outperformers and good volume profiles. IF selections are taken from a scan on the night of a surge then they are ranked by performance up to that date.
Scott, I've said to you before, you're all over the map. You're constantly "playing" (your words, not mine) with a new strategy, indicator, results of a book you've read, etc. And I've told you that, eventually, it was going to beat you up.
I traded teh "Joint Signal" for some time... till it died. that scan has produced 5 items that meet it's criteria on average for the last year. there are no candidates there. That methodology lead me to 20 good trades in a row and that was a disaster because I started thinking I was really smart. I could wait till it starts firing off again or look for a more robust way to view opportunity. I started with Technitraders candle signals and i saw not consistancy in performance through theri methods or could get no straigt answeres on what I was donig wrong to not be doubling my money like other students.
Well, now it's happened. Good. You're ready for the next level. Man up, it's time.
All the best, your friend,
tobydad
Thanks. so the biggest issue I have is not gettign a hit rate that is decent. I lost it. It's probably market condition.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Notice Scott that you are talking about two different
things. The market environment:
"I still think in a better market enviroment"
"SHOULD do it ina better market"
"IN a better enviroment it's traded over a list of spy outperformers"
"It's probably market condition."
----------------------------------------------------
Then you are talking about what you thought or did:
"I was really expecting abigger bounce"
"because info I acted on at the tiem turned out to be bogus"
"I started thinking I was really smart."
"get no straigt answeres on what I was donig wrong"
"I lost it."
So what's the problem? Market environment or what you think?
Remember there is no bull market. There is no bear market. There
is no volatility. If you stay in cash all this goes away.
There is only you in the market and only you. The market is
never wrong. You always have to look at things as if you are
the only one or thing who can be wrong.
If your swimming in shark infested water. Who do we blame
the sharks?
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I don't know Tobydads exact intent but I'm guessing goals
and trading plans need to be a little more detailed and defined
than: "A trading system that works" and "I want to be rich".
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (tobydad) Scott;
...
...
1. Once and for all, take the time to put your trading/investing goals in writing. You will be amazed at what you will learn about yourself when you force yourself to take the time to put your thoughts on paper. This also helps to ferret out the areas that you thought you had thought through but really hadn't. I'll repeat my old phrase once again, If you can't put it in writing, you don't understand it.
2. Figure out which type of trading style will best help you reach your goals.
3. Put in writing the system that you will use to achieve your goals.
4. Review what you have written, at minimum, weekly. Make notes, update, revise as needed.
5. Follow your system. Stick with your system. If you've shown it to work, don't 2nd guess it. Follow your rules. Don't change midstream because of your gut; stick to the plan.
6. Keep recording the results. Journal your findings. Get to know your system inside and out.
7. Force yourself to stay with your system until you know it so well you can teach someone else to do it.
8. The system must include market and sector trend analysis, entries (when and how) as well as exits.
...
...
tobydad
The above is very solid advice. Difficult to follow, for some impossible.
A couple additional points:
Revise as needed... This should be done after considerable consideration. Backtesting and or paper trading the "revision" as a point of comparison over a large sample providing ample reason for adopting the revision. Also limiting the scope of the revision to a single aspect will permit appreciation of the effect of that specific revision.
Have a reason for the revision and avoid tailoring the reason to catch some missed opportunintyor miss some big loss. "If only...whatever, then I would have entered XYZ and caught that 200% move." is not a well considered revision.
Appreciate your psyche. That is understand what puts you off your game. Many great atheletes can not succeeed at golf, as the shanked drive affects the following shots in a negative way. The zen of the moment should be clear minded with the rules of your system driving the process. If a (few) failed trade(s) causes a lot of mental distress figure out how to frame your thinking to avoid the negative thoughts. If the stress, financial, emotional or circumstancial, of the ups and downs of trading impacts your family situation reconsider the "calling". Is it worth it?
Realize there is no "magic fomula". We each bring our own strengths and weaknesses and circumstances to the task and what works for someone else may not work for you.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"
I don't know Tobydads exact intent but I'm guessing goals
and trading plans need to be a little more detailed and defined
than: "A trading system that works" and "I want to be rich"."
I have there pages of written stuff reguarding a plan. But it all pivots on me being able to either get into a winnig trade more often than I loose or make shure that the winners are WAY bigger than the loosers. "I've focused mostly on the former mostly as a short term trader and having all too often seen a nice proffit turn into a loss or a tiny gain before getting stopped out. I now inelectualy that there is a tradeoff there. I can be right allot and make allot of smaller gains or I can be wrong more and hang in for bigger gains. Where is the middle ground.
Also most of my plan was centered around my strategy at the time.. the one that produced the 20 good trades in a row. that strategy now returns zilch. However because i didn't trade 100% of capital then my gains were big enough to carry me through now if I were relying on them for a living. If I did trade 100% of capital on them then the ensueing crappy trading spot I hit as the condition was changing would have wipped me out totaly... bankruptcy probably.
I understand that the market place is constantly changing but at the same time ideas and concepts that are robust should be functional to some degree reguardless of condition or what ever.
I do believe that we are at the mercy of the market. I don't believe that it's just me and the market and only me that there is no bullor bear market. I take philosophy that this sounds similar to and I'd hurt my professors feelings If I thold him Ithought it was intelectual zen crap. I have no desire to shave my head, wear a toga and get a big statue for my living room with incense burners. No offense. There is either right or wrong, what worked and what didn't, what makes money and what doesn't.
Now even though my shorting has met with 50% success I think had I been focusing on shorting when it was sensible to do so I'd have made money. I never expected it to get this bad this quick and through much of this time I just thought I saw things saying it was dangerous to get short because a reaction was probably over due. Inexperience I guess.
I"m not certain that psychology and psyche play a huge part of it either...If I see a $100 bill blowing on the sidewalk it's a no brainer to cram it in my pocket. If you see a $1000 bill blowing around and no poor fellow chasing it (presumeably he dropped it) in the pocket it goes, If you seea $10,000 mark floating around I don't suddenly get the desire to slam my head into the nearest telephone pole and run away from it. IN the pocket it goes or I'll do my best to get it there.. and so on. So there is not a point where I see my equity growing and thing "man I'm uncomfortable with this I better put in a string of losses" That does not feed my plesure center. Seeing columns and columns of green feed my pleasure center
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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I'll just throw this out there. It might help somebody.....
My favorite saying in regards to trading: A Sinking tide sinks all ships ...and vice versa
Another saying: You can get rich trading just one stock correctly.
Just an example of how I trade.
I start with Macro view of the market: (Referencing my favorite saying...) : Right now I think the market is at a decision point and could collapse, my Technical Guru's that I listen to think so too. (This is my opinion but I'm just stating it to demonstrate my trading direction)
Micro View: Might see a little bounce this week and then a retest of the lows probably to 7400. (Same disclaimer)
Since no clear direction exists, I trade the 2X and 3X Ultra and Inverse ETF's (No matter if market going up or down, I can go long in some of these funds)
Since I am testing my theories and my paper trading looks good, I start with $1000 per trade and $50 stops to get my feet wet.
As I get my winning percentages up, I increase my "wager" sizes.
I usually phase in to a trade in two entries, 50% at the point I think is a good entry, and the other 50% pretty soon after if the volume and trend validate.
My point is. I have a theory on the market direction, I have a trading style and specific market of about 30 ETF's (that is all my brain can comprehend), and I have a trading plan.
When I have 3 trades in a row where I lose $150 bucks (3 x $50 stops), I go back to paper trading.
BTW, I found using ATR to calculate trade size and stop loss points to be even better than the crude $50 method.
Scott, the truth is somewhere in the middle between fundamental and technical analysis. Write down your set of rules, keep a logbook, and trade the plan! I have to use Tradestation to exit my trades for me because I am the weakest link and my human emotion ALWAYS takes over and gets me out of the trade at the wrong time in the heat of battle.
Regards, AK
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Scott, the truth is somewhere in the middle between fundamental and technical analysis. Write down your set of rules, keep a logbook, and trade the plan! I have to use Tradestation to exit my trades for me because I am the weakest link and my human emotion ALWAYS takes over and gets me out of the trade at the wrong time in the heat of battle.
I've been considering that also. There were more than a few situations where I fumbled a great trade by exiting to soon. I figure i'll need to develop the discipline to see it through and once it start workign the comfortzone will expand and I'll feel the positive edge working verses jumping in and trusting to the fates (who don't like me).
I now use ATR to help determine position size and all entries are at the lower range of an atr chanel. The few breakouts I do take have a tighter chanel.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I do believe that we are at the mercy of the market."
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I think we are at the mercy of our decisions.
Let me tell you a quick story. Due to an odd set of
circumstances (that's too long to explain) a company I
worked at closed. A while later most employees were
called back. In that period someone had taken what was my
former job. I was working in a related position but not the
same job.
It was strange to see someone doing what was previously my
work. (They were screwing up the position badly) Everytime
I would talk to them they would speak of the "challenges" and
"difficulty" of the position. (challenges and difficulties I never
had)
To my view they were explaining away their failure by
"challenges" and "difficulties". It was easier than saying
I'm incompetent, Ive failed, Im not qualified to do this.
You see once you are at the "mercy" of the market. You can
allow it to take your money.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Ok so how do I change that?
I remember othe statements that you made to the effect that our performance will be a product of what we find and the market coughs up.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/18/2008
Posts: 37
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If a trader from the pits came throught here he would probably think he is reading chinese.
You don't need to do any of that nonsense to make money in the markets.
Facts:
- Long term trading pay off more than short term trading - That is a mathematical lie. The only folks that will vouche to that is the broker who wants to keep your cash by lying to you. Just do the math.
- Risk is a direct function of the time your money remain in the market. The longer your money is in market the more risk you are taking. Simple comcept
- Your trading style should fit your personality and life style - not the other way around.
-What could have alerted you to the market rise last friday - Nothing - Unless you were expecting it or watching tick by tick. If you were expecting it and set alert it could had been anything you were expecting to happen (price level, volume level, specific indicator level, specific resistant level - who knows)
-Scanning for specific candidates and such is part of the job - but the job is making profits. Scanning has nothing to do with that. Good traders can trade anything assuming within reasonable cirscuntances (volume, volatility, acceleration).
-Sticking with a system which is not working is as nonsense as trying to average $1000 a month on a $1000 account. It just isn't goint to work. If your system is not adapting to current maket conditions you need to reassess and adapt.
- You can write all you want in your trade journal and read it over and over again - It will not change your emotions for trading
- You got to be able to visualize it - if you can see it in your mind or can't understand it - DON'T touch it
- it take money to make money in the markets. Small accounts are usually untradeable regardless of what the brokerage tells you. They are after your comission. If you account is small then save until you can have an acceptable size account. I wouldn't consider anything under $25000 to be such - and that is very small.
- Control your commisions. Find a discount or direct brokerage with offers you the lowest fees. Currently there are very reputable firms out there that will allow you to get 1000shrs for just under $4 or 100shrs for under $0 .40. For active traders the difference can add up to a substantial amount of money.
- Paper trading is a joke. You are trading without emotions. Besides a trade entered in reality triggers a chain effect down the ticker. Paper trading doesn't - you are not participating therefore your trade doesn't count. You are not affecting the direction of that stock.
- In the general sense of the term - species do not become endagered from their own actions but due to changes in their surroundings.
- Adaptability must be a top priority. If you can adapt in a second's notice you are doomed to become endangered.
-What is the only thing you have control over in your trade at any time? If you control that you have half of the game under your sleeve.
- Perception changes everything you see and do. Per example tell the a guy who hasn't make a cent in months trading that you can make $1500 per day day trading, and he will think you are lying. Tell the same to the guy who makes over $250,000 a month trading CDO's and he will think you are a loser or an idiot.
It is simpler than thought, but you must do the thinking on your own.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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Riddle me this Batman -- What is your edge? You need to be able to articulate it.
My advice -- cut your size in half and your targets by 3/4. You need some wins. Take some small gains to get your confidence up. In this market you need to take profits off the table because it seems the market turns on a dime. Someone farts, and its good for a 400 pt. move. on the Dow.
This market is BS. They are changing the rules while the game is going on. Short sale rule here, bailout there, etc. I stopped trading until I see it get make to more normal conditions. I like slow, predictable markets. Not markets that go up and down 5% each way every day. Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Ok so how do I change that?"
-------------------------------------
You cant change it. You must accept it.
When you speak of your system not working. It
sounds like you are talking about a car that had a flat.
(just pop a new tire on and its good as new)
Your system didn't stop working. The market changed.
The real question is what is plan B? Why is it not working
and what does work? If you continue to
focus on the system. Its like pounding a square peg
into a round hole.
Imagine you can see the next 5 years of spreadsheet
entries in your trading log. We wont know if the market
was flat, continued to go down, or went up.
We do know that every entry will be because of you.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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1) baquilesb's post suggested that an average of $1,500 per day could be earned on an account beginning at $27,500.
At that rate, one would expect the account to be worth $1,000,000 in about 3.2 months.
2) tobydad's post mentions a 7% average monthly return.
At that rate, one would expect an account beginning at $27,500 to be worth $1,000,000 in about 4.4 years.
For the calculations, the "average" returns were used as though they were geometric averages, not arithmetic averages. Please note that the geometric average is always less than or equal to the arithmetic average. This means that if the averages stated were arithmetic averages rather than geometric averages, the results are too optimistic.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
Joined: 11/18/2008
Posts: 37
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QUOTE (bustermu)
1) baquilesb's post suggested that an average of $1,500 per day could be earned on an account beginning at $27,500.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
Where exactly did I say that?
It amaze how stories can be changed.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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hi baquilesb,You strike me as a shrewd guy. I'd like to learn more about your approach if you're willing to share.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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QUOTE (baquilesb) QUOTE (bustermu) 1) baquilesb's post suggested that an average of $1,500 per day could be earned on an account beginning at $27,500.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
Where exactly did I say that?
It amaze how stories can be changed.
baquilesb,
In your post of Saturday, November 22, 2008 12:26:35 AM above. Your statement has now been deleted. I believe your statement was, as I interpreted it, that you knew two traders that averaged $1,500 per day daytrading and one could copy them with an account of $27,500.
I apologize if I misinterpreted your post. I would very much appreciate you correcting my interpretation of the $1,500 per day and the account of $27,500.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
Joined: 11/18/2008
Posts: 37
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No I never said that. I said that he would be required a minimum of$27500 was to START.
No you would NOT have the buying power with $27,500 to average that $1,500 per day - not even if you were using the 1 to 4 margin power granted to a "pattern daytrading" flagged account That would be $100,000 give or take.
Nontheless as you probably know $25,000 is the minimum requirement for a daytrading account.
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