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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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what does that mean for Joe and Sally Ordinary?
Will it be OK for oil to go back up?
What about inflation?
Housing starts?
Employment?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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does todays market action answer your questions?
naz -55
dow -275
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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No, actually, it doesn't.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"So if the market is going to be better"
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The way I look at it is it may not mean the market
will be better. Just that things wont get worse.
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"what does that mean for Joe and Sally Ordinary?"
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Based on the above.
That Joe and Sally will probably have a recession
instead of something worse.
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"Will it be OK for oil to go back up?
"What about inflation?"
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Not sure what you mean by Ok to go up?
Most of what's going on now is deflationary.
(recession, housing bubble, global markets,
interest rates)
Inflation will come later.
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"Housing"
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Still falling. Should be in a multi-year
bottoming process.
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Employment?
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Un-employment should increase in typical
recessionary fashion. There is debate if
it is a "recession" or "slow down". I'm not
sure how much the "label" matters. Its
underway and only a question of intensity.
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Obviously things can change at the drop of a
hat. I think we will be in a trading range in the style
of 1965 to 1982. There will be bulls like 2002 to 2007
and bears like 2000 to 2002. We've already been in it
9 or 10 years depending on when you count.
Future growth should come from people wanting
their freedom. (China, Emerging markets) All the
stuff that was just strong will probably be good
long-term. Energy, Basic Materials, Natural
Resources, commodities. (obviously with nasty
corrections along the way)
And yes as crazy and unbelievable as it may sound.
Someone may actually want to buy a house one day
and live in it.
(when that happens I'm expecting a special on the
Discovery Channel. You know, the equivalent of
a Lochness Monster or Bigfoot sighting)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Diceman;
thanks, good insights. Just what I was looking for...some meaningful conversation and opinions.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/7/2005
Posts: 133
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Maybe short term lift.....?
1. August 17, 2007: The Federal Reserve Board announced a reduction in the primary credit discount rate from 6.25% to 5.75%. DJIA rallies 1,680 points over 9 weeks
2. November 26, 2007: Significant changes in limits for SOMA securities lending programme (federal reserve banks of NY). DJIA rallies 1,056 points over 3 weeks
3. January 22, 2008: FOMC decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 b.p.s in an unscheduled meeting. DJIA rallies 1,134 points over 2 weeks
4. March 17/18, 2008:Bear stearns takeover on 17th March and FOMC decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 b.p.s. Market expected 100 b.p.s. DJIA rallies 1,400 points over 8 weeks
5. July 15, 2008: Paulson’s testimony before Senate Banking Committee outlining plan to support GS’S (liquidity, sufficient capital and Fed consultative role). DJIA rallies 1,039 points over 9 weeks
6. September 08, 2008 Treasury takes control of Fannie and Freddie.
Source:
Welcome to the U.S.S.R. (United States Socialist Republic) Citigroup (PDF)
Tom Fitzpatrick, Shyam Devani
CitiFX® Technicals – Bulletin
08 September 2008
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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QUOTE (tobydad) Diceman;
thanks, good insights. Just what I was looking for...some meaningful conversation and opinions.
"so if the market is going to be ok now.........................?"
maybe next time time try asking a meaningful question.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Driger;
I intended no digs. I apologize for the offense.
tobydad
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Winfieldh;
Great stuff, interesting. thanks.
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