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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'm not good at calling the timing like Signaltap and a few others; but I just noticed QID had what looks like an exhaustion gap today (I'm sure it's just a temporary lull). But with this much hard selling, a short recovery day (or 1/2 day) wouldn't surprise me.
Anybody better at this, please chime in and correct me or at least fine tune my comments.
thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 8/3/2008
Posts: 36
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Tobydad if you look at the SPX thread (september 3rd) on the other forum you will see that I bought QID above the high of the white engulfing candle from september 2nd I sold earlier today. Are you looking to enter the stock?
You will get another chance soon. If you want or care I will tell you when I re-enter.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Tobydad just as an advise - you are playing with fire here on a Pro Ultra - and my guess is that you will get burned.
Find something else less risky and less dinamic - I must conclude from your postings that you are not an experienced daytrader. Holding QID over night is as stupid as using water to extinguish the oil fire.
For those here claiming other wise - have them show you real proof that they inititated the trade, and even if they do that - you don't have to jump off the building because others do. I have seem a lot of faces hit the pavement hard, and the jumping is still going.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/3/2008
Posts: 36
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Tobydad I do not want to ruin this thread because we both know that bigblock will keep posting the opposit of what I say so I will make this my last entry, Davidjohnhall and I have been having great success with these ultra-short ETF's QID in particular. Shy away if you want but do your own research, they are a great tool to trade when the markets are nose diving.
Just ask Davidjohnhall on the other forum or here he will clear the air for you...
Good luck buddy.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Thanks to all. Just sold QID today at 47.55. Bought two days ago at 44.70 for 6.3% profit. My goal is 7% per month so I'm happy.
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Joined: 8/3/2008
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awsome job TB
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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tobydad, I can't say awsome job. You well know that holding overnight is foolish unless you insure your trade. You are taking chances that sooner or later will burn you.
A friend of mine was holding just like you CEGE - didn't want to listen to me either - until the mornig he woke up and the stock was over 75% down. You should had seen his face.
Now he will listen.
My advice is not to hold overnight unless you are hedge (options). Your stop loss is worth nothing overnight.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/30/2008
Posts: 77
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QUOTE (tobydad) Thanks to all. Just sold QID today at 47.55. Bought two days ago at 44.70 for 6.3% profit. My goal is 7% per month so I'm happy.
Just asking if I may, how much of your total portfolio are you risking?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Bigblock;
Thanks. I do need to learn more about options. Trying to find time to do that. Where would you suggest I start?
I'm very grateful that I have not been burned so far but, certainly, more insurance is never a bad thing.
I think because of the way I swing trade I've been pretty safe. But, again, what's the best way to start learning? This market has been so crazy, I did get stopped out the other day and lost some of the profit I might have gotten. I was only up about 11% in a week and a half but was hoping for more like 15%.
By the way, I want to get better at shorting as well. Could you give me some help on that?
Thanks in advance.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Vinzer;
I rarely break the portfolio into less than 8 positions. The Bible instructs "Give a portion to 7 and to 8 because you do not know what evil may come upon the earth." Throughout my life I've never found it a bad thing to follow the Bible's instruction in all that I do.
I also look at where I can find a logical stop loss should my buy order get filled and calculate my position sizes so that no one trade will ever risk more than 2% of the total portfolio.
So, if I'm averaging 7% each month on trades and never risk more than 2% per trade, I'm in pretty good shape.
I hope I understood your question.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way, for those a little shaken by the 75% loss story (and that is a scary thought), I looked at CEGE. Here's my take on it: (I did not trade this but this is the way I would have)
7/11 decent candlestick supported by LR30 and TSV26 popping through ubb13,10. enter buy order for next morning at 1 penny over HOD
7/16 enter stop loss at $2.46 based on low of 7/15 lower than lows of 7/14 and 7/16
7/25 stop loss moves to $3.02 same reason as above
7/31 stopped out for 22% gain inside of a month
No good buy signal after that. 8/07 MCTTF tells me definitely not to be in this one.
Price continues to be below LR30.
8/20 price drops below 50ma and lbb20,20 begins dropping out giving no support; no reason to even be paying attention to this stock. I don't even know that the 75% drop happened.
Following this technique has served me well. For anyone new to trading or in need of some tools to tweak your system, we can discuss more.
Bigblock, I continue to appreciate your concern. And I'd still love to learn more about options. I know that's a strength of yours. Thanks.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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QUOTE (BigBlock) Your stop loss is worth nothing overnight.
Take care.
Bigblock, I don't know much about this so I could use your help, IB offers the option for stop losses to be active during pre- and after-market hours. How does that play into the picture?
thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 4/23/2008
Posts: 214
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Tobydad, I will have to give you credit where credit is due. You are not only a good trader but a very very smart cookie too. You could defuse a time bomb in the middle of New York traffic.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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agm32,
thanks, not sure what I did to earn the kind words, but, thanks anyway.
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Joined: 3/30/2008
Posts: 77
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QUOTE (tobydad)
I hope I understood your question.
Yes, that does help and I do need to learn more on risk/return ratio. I have some good threads saved.
thanks,
yinzer
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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QUOTE (BigBlock) tobydad, I can't say awsome job. You well know that holding overnight is foolish unless you insure your trade. You are taking chances that sooner or later will burn you.
A friend of mine was holding just like you CEGE - didn't want to listen to me either - until the mornig he woke up and the stock was over 75% down. You should had seen his face.
Now he will listen.
My advice is not to hold overnight unless you are hedge (options). Your stop loss is worth nothing overnight.
Take care.
You are aware that QID is based on the QQQQ and that the QQQQ is based on an index, aren't you. As an index, the QQQQ is not subject to single stock risk like CEGE (a speculative biotech at that). Your only subject to market risk. Show me were the QQQQ gapped 75% overnight. Or even 25%. 10%??? Seems to me like your concern is way overblown in this instance.
Tobydad, I would suggest you do some research on the QQQQ. Figure out what the overnight gaps look like. Then, limit your position to no more that 10-20% of your trading account. You might get hurt, but you won't end up dead. I would also do my analysis on the QQQQ and then trade the QID. Good luck.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Golfman;
thanks.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Actually, I really just trade my chart and system. Hasn't stopped working so no need to change my plan.
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Joined: 3/30/2008
Posts: 77
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QUOTE (Golfman25)
You are aware that QID is based on the QQQQ and that the QQQQ is based on an index, aren't you. As an index, the QQQQ is not subject to single stock risk like CEGE (a speculative biotech at that). Your only subject to market risk. Show me were the QQQQ gapped 75% overnight. Or even 25%. 10%??? Seems to me like your concern is way overblown in this instance.
I was thinking that too and will go you one better. Actually it seems like most of the index ETF's have the biggest gaps while in trend. Any reversal gaps come while a whipsaw is going on and are slight.
OTOH I'm worrying about getting too comfortable.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/23/2008
Posts: 214
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Tobydad, you sly ole dog you. You know exactly what I am talking about. It's too bad that Apsll does not listen to you, but you tried. I'm not trying to con you. I've read a lot of your posts and have come to admire your personality. There are only two people on this board that I do not like and you know who they are. They remind me of spoiled brats. Everyone else is ok.
Golfman, I do not think that Tobydad needs advice on how to trade. Trading the Q's, QLD, or QID is very tough and he made 6.3% in 2 days time. Anyone that can average 7% per month and never risk more than 2% per trade is a good trader in my book.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Tobydad
One thing to remember a "hedge" is basically a "tax"
on your trading.
The irony is that they are a type of siren song. Awful
markets and fear make them seem to make sense
exactly at the point you don't need it.
I had my portfolio in puts (stocks) and puts (OEX index)
during the crash of 1987. Seemed wonderful right?
The truth is. The rest of the 80's and during the great
bull of the 90's. I didn't need to hedge anything.
(the crash was the last puts I owned except for some
rare occasions)
The truth is I would have been in about the same position
just selling my longs before the crash.
(although its not as sexy)
I think there is truth to what Golfman25 says and you should
analyze the necessity for hedging.
(1987 was a rare case of bull market valuations)
Just my 2 cents.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Diceman,
Transmission received and understood. Thanks. As I said before, "Actually, I really just trade my chart and system. Hasn't stopped working so no need to change my plan."
I just figured if I could engage Bigblock in some meaningful conversation it might help get things on a more constructive path.
I would like to learn about options but, as I pointed out in my earlier post, situations like CEGE have not, to date, posed a great threat. I just know to stay out of the way of the big boys. I'm guess I'm like a trading parasite, I just find out where the big guys are going and ride along. When they're done, I hop off and wait for the next ride.
Thanks, Dice. Always good to know you're still around.
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