Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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A broad look of the tecnicals as well as fundamentals shows no bottom for this bear market.
NO higher high or higher lows have been achieved, and none of the retracement carried any kind of exciting attention. Those retracements which a like to call up retracement since we are in a well established down trend, are part to the trend as fluctuations must occur.
This last rally may have still a little way to go, but nothing to worry about.
IN looking at the current chart of the DOW
It seems that the 10,700 level is just around the corner. In fact much longer time frames show that the 7,500 level is not out of the question.
In a 60 day time frame the Stochastic shows just halfway through the correction, which indicate a possible target of 8400 before an oversold level is achieved. Certainly if we reach those levels you are going to see some real panic and the posibility of further decline.
Realize, and I will say this again, that no changes has been made to the fundamentals. The banking system is in trouble, and there is no easy fix on that. But of course that is not the only thing pulling this markets.
One important issue that I believe is being overlooked by the markets is the Russia situation. Too much distraction wth the olimpic games, end of summer, and the mess with Fannie and Freddie. Even the Oil futures fail to react due to the fact that South Ossetia is not sitting over any pool of Oil.
The markets have focus more on the inevitable bailout of FRe and FAnn, and not enough on the repercutions that this Russia situation may have on future relations with Europe, and more specificly on how to establish a connection to Vladimir again.
Remember what happen in 1991 with Gorbachev, after the treasure mess and the hurricane mess. All was recover except for Gorbachev.
This is opening a major hole in relations between east and west, and that will affect not just the economic health of Europe, but also the major foreign policies of global powers as well as global markets.
Russia was out of everyones mind, and now in just 2 weeks things have changed quickily. This is already affecting conditions in Iraq, and Alghanistant, as well as the presidency campaign. This is as of now a third front in our foreign policy.
This will not be ignored by the markets in times to come as this will impact emerging, debt, currency, commodities markets and any other market you can think of.
The circustances are clearly on the table, and I personally think they are not going to go away. Russia knows well what is at stake, and they have been quite too much too long.
How Russia play its hand will play a critical factor for all affected parties - Energy as well as oil could be a real threat to Western Europe already swamp with rampant inflation.
No matter what - When markets have ignored circustances like those with Russia in the past, at the end the reality hits like a brick on the face - an ugly scene.
This will come into play later as a negative to US markets added of course to the ongoin mess already in place.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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In looking at the DOW I see some good upside potential. Bouncing off support levels on low volume will keep it in the green for now. I am having a feild day with these long possitions. 
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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HLF was a good one recently
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Berkshire Hathaway will not bet agains the dollar, and Warren Buffet said clearly today that the economy will not rebound before 2009. I think more like 2010.
Anyways he saids that the credit crunch among other things will continue to worsen. and furthermore noted that the FED Bernake has no "magic wand" to change give the economy a boost or lower inflation.
And to end he alleged that the nation could be facing economic disaster if it doesn't ge a handle on its growing debt.
I think there is still a little more room for shorts.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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If I remember correctly this bear market rally started with hedge funds covering naked shorts to meet the new requirements from the feds. Nothing has changed that started the bear growling. Housing market and financials are still in bad shape, and getting worse. I see a greater potential for downside than up. So I will stay focused in short selling for now. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Yes Allenbary you are correct. In fact, Warren Buffet just yesterday said that wallstreet has been like a nudist beach, and that when you go swimming naked and the tight comes down you can alway see who hasn't been covered. They are all trying to get covered now, and they are burning so much cash to cover payouts, that soon they are going to be in ruins. But is a little too late, now they have been exposed.
Staying on the short side will definately increase your odds of making profits dramatically. It makes no sense to want to go long against a well established downtrend of the general markets.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well even the FED agrees now - at their retreat at Jackson Hole the "economists" gathering say that there is no quick fix and that the economy has a long "long" way to go before recovery.
Did they really have to go to Jacksong Hole to come up with such lame statement.
The funny thing is that Feldstains say they have no clue where the lift is going to come from.
I surely agree with them that US will go into a recession lasting as any post war history, which on the average has been 16 moths (remember mid 1970's, and early 1980's).
The thing to consider is how bad things are already, and with 16 month to go - those are going to be a long long 16 months for lots of folks.'
Cosumers are already getting toasted, and so will corporate soon after they run out of cash (business sector will roast), and so world growth will start to limp soon after.
Then gravity will exercise its power and a new economy will surge.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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Hey, what do you see in your crystal ball for the super bowl this year? I hear that they are giving great odds on a NY Giants repeat.....
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 1/18/2008
Posts: 209
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Hi All,
Fridays rally was a bit weak, IMO, I have to say. Recent rally trendline was punctured and 50EMA held on friday. I think a monday pullback will start another leg down. I see the bottom being 9600-9800, not including the final scare- the- crap- out- us -blowout -bottom where the big dogs generally cover thier shorts and go long.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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This coming week keep your eyes on the financials, and housing data. Freddie and Fannie will probably be arranged, and of course Lehman Bros are still in the air. Good thing the market is still out on vacation.
When it returns there is going to be a lot of hair pulling.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Well even the FED agrees now - at their retreat at Jackson Hole the "economists" gathering say that there is no quick fix and that the economy has a long "long" way to go before recovery.
Did they really have to go to Jacksong Hole to come up with such lame statement.
The funny thing is that Feldstains say they have no clue where the lift is going to come from.
I surely agree with them that US will go into a recession lasting as any post war history, which on the average has been 16 moths (remember mid 1970's, and early 1980's).
The thing to consider is how bad things are already, and with 16 month to go - those are going to be a long long 16 months for lots of folks.'
Cosumers are already getting toasted, and so will corporate soon after they run out of cash (business sector will roast), and so world growth will start to limp soon after.
Then gravity will exercise its power and a new economy will surge.
Time and paitence. I've got both.
Man.. people a cooking now. I have a neighbor that is an "investor"... they don't do anything crazy or foolish like trying to time the market, or move to cash, or look at emerging new sectors. They trust their advisor who has been calling them this past several months to let them know "he's picking up some great bargains" for them.
boggles my mind how people can swallow that hook line and sinker.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Great business for the advisor. About the bargains that is to be seen.
Ask them if the advisor offers them any guaranties.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Russias decisions today, are just pay back for US support to Kosovo.
The Geopolitical landscape has been changed as a consequense. This will have repecusions (well it is already having)at a global level, and on global markets.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Ptolemy (leech Apesll) you are demential. If you have nothing to contribute because you are a real ignorant who knows nothing about your economy, or the global economy, or geopolitics issues then go somewhere else to take bandwitdh with your stupids icons.
Watch it fool, I am about to get a few more clicks on this thread, and guess what - they are going to come from you. Probably half of the clicks here are from you. You are sick, and I am going to have to file a restraining order for your stocking Apesll.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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Again because you say that a thing is true, so it must be. Where do you get this power I want some. I am just aware of the current state of affairs as you are. I just find them to be as boring as you are.
A restraining order... Am I seeing cracks in the once sturdy tower? Now you know how we all feel about your long standing abuse of the good members of this forum. Act civil to them and I will leave you alone. My work here is done. Apsll left because of you, and he was shamed to be suspended in league with your antics. When or if he returns and you bother him again then I will return and this will all seem like just a party by comparison.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (Ptolemy) Again because you say that a thing is true, so it must be. Where do you get this power I want some. I am just aware of the current state of affairs as you are. I just find them to be as boring as you are.
A restraining order... Am I seeing cracks in the once sturdy tower? Now you know how we all feel about your long standing abuse of the good members of this forum. Act civil to them and I will leave you alone. My work here is done. Apsll left because of you, and he was shamed to be suspended in league with your antics. When or if he returns and you bother him again then I will return and this will all seem like just a party by comparison.
Oh! come on and cut the crap. We all know here that you are Apesll - A person can try to change the way they express themselve in writing, but not for long. You have been caught little lier.
I gave you a chance and you didn't take it - you keep coming to my threads to bother me and the ones in it - Like I said you are like a leech looking for a host - and you found one.
Do you mean to act civil like you act with your stupid icons, and your nonsense comments?
I don't think I could do that even if I forced myself.
I may be boring, buy my tactics yield profits - you go ahead and play with the dragons until you get burned. Lets see how fun that is.
And well you said your work is done here - well haven't we all heard that one for the zillion time again. When are you going to stop lying to yorself and others?
I am truly scared by your threats of returning to save Leech Apesll - you have the imagination of a 5 yr old boy - lots of imaginary characters as I said. UHHUUHH I am scared.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/6/2008
Posts: 45
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Remember it is you that is seeking protection from me (restraining order) You leave Apsll and his friends alone and I leave you alone....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Like I said to you - I was going to have you crawling all over the place.
Come on Crawl some more and keep clicking.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Ptolemy APSLL what ever you call yourself today, you accuse Bigblock of abusing members of this forum when it is you who is doing just that. Please do us all a favor and stick to the topic and keep the personal attacks to yourself.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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Locking
- Craig
Here to Help!
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