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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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DJ-30 wants to go to the 2004 low @ 9,708 on the monthly chart (super long-term) and that could be the final bottom! Watch and Listen my comments in different timeframes, from the hourly to the monthly chart using TCnet and Scottrade Elite! Here's the link!
http://www.screencast.com/t/BoxboYhY
Thanks for your time, Signaltap (TCNet Club: signaltap2)
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Great video sig ...
I tend to agree that the ~9700 will provide support for a lucrative bounce ...
I just don't know about that "final bottom" stuff ...
From a momentum standpoint ... we're entering this bear with a much larger head of steam than the last ...
And even those doing their best to prop this thing up .... are saying that we may be a couple of years from seeing the bottom of the problems ...
I suspect that we'll see that 9700 level in less than a years time from the October '07 peak ... so what will we do from the next year and a half ....
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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just look at the head and shoulders on the weekly. you can see the price target of that h and s puts us down @10k.
10,000 will be a big pyschological barrier. we may get some capitulation if we break that.
as for final bottom, i think we'll have to wait and see.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 108
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Gold Customer
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 108
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I think we may be at the bottom. I'm not saying that there will not be more down turn, however if you do a weekly chart of the Dow and do a zoom #3 you'll get the above chart. What i found interesting is that if you press the [ button you will be able to move through time. It you follow the time frame all the back to the Dot.com Bubble and from 9/11 you will see that the dow fell mearly 3,000 point. before building a consolidation.
My point is this, we have already fallen 3,000 point since the Dow's all time highs. The market has been beaten up enough that the Market expects bad news from companies, especially from earnings stand point. Oil prices, Unwmployment figures etc.
What made the Dow rebound back in was Monet Streams MA back in late 2002, (from a technical point). The Moving Average started to "curve" up. So far this current down trend I do not believe I have seen a curving up the the MS Moving Average yet.
Obviously further unepected terrible news will make the Dow slide more, however a 3,000 point drop is my take. (I could be proven wrong as after all, no one can predict the the Market, it goes where it wants to go.
We have Elections coming and of course we have the Holiday seasons approaching. Generally speaking a New Year with new Leaderships can bring optimism in the Market. Holdays generally mean money is spent on businesses.
This is just my speculation on a little more optimistice view point, yet still being a realist.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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jjhart ...
My opinion isn't worth much ... just ask my wife ... but in the case of "real" bear markets ... I think that they are as much a function of time as they are price ...
To expand on that a bit ...
Things don't go to crap overnight ... it takes a while for the systemic problems to build to such a point to where they "pop" ...
There have been people beating down the doors to the Fed for the last three years trying to tell them what must be the eventuality of all the crappy debt ...
Now it is exposed ... and losses are rolling in ....
Larger financial institutions are cleaning up their balance sheets ... smaller ones are failing ... hedge funds are folding ...
All of these problems are not magically fixed ... just because the market falls to a certain level ...
Yes ... the market is forward looking ... and it's recovery will begin before we see positive numbers in the economy ....
But ... it will likely not begin until the problem stops getting worse ...
Economies are really somewhat fragile things ... a little kick one way and it spirals upward feeding runaway growth and inflation ... a little kick the other and growth reverses ... and unemployment rises ...
Each way ... it tends to feed on itself ... gaining momentum ... until finally reaching an inflection point ...
Since you mentioned the 2000 bear ... how long was it ... in months ... from the peak ... to the trough ?
Now ... go back and look at 1929 ... how long was it ... in months ... from the peak ... to the trough ?
One may have been a 40% decline ... while the other was a 90% decline ... but how did the times compare ?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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well 10 weeks ago I made this video (07/28/2008) and the dj-30 is almost 300 points under that level! (9708) Signaltap
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (signaltap) well 10 weeks ago I made this video (07/28/2008) and the dj-30 is almost 300 points under that level! (9708) Signaltap
So ... have you got a new hypothesis on the "final lows" ?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (signaltap) well 10 weeks ago I made this video (07/28/2008) and the dj-30 is almost 300 points under that level! (9708) Signaltap
well i guess you missed your target then. lol
i won't deny you've posted some good analysis.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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9320 or so next possibility. I hope it's there anyway. If not, about 8400 is next stop.
There, I took my shot. Anyone else?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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have the entire wolrd's markets ever collasped as fast as they are now? are we following them or are they following us?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (johnlc) have the entire wolrd's markets ever collasped as fast as they are now?
Yes ... at least one other time ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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even dj30 7,500 looks weak now! it may NOT hold! Sig 
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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John ....
If you can find a few extra minutes during all of this mayhem ...
Do a google search on "Crash of 1907" ... or "Panic of 1907" ...
And then maybe "Crash of 1893" ... or "Panic of 1893" ...
The Great Depression is somewhat "well advertised" compared to some of the others ...
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