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I know some of you use the IBD 100. I'm thinking of signing up for the free trial. What I'm mostly after is a current list of stocks that have had increased earnings for a few consecutive quarters.
If someone know where I can find that list for free with out all the distracting news and headlines and other stuff I don't really need.
I found their boiled down Canslim explination useful. When I do use fundamentals I lean this direction is that the IBD 100 ? Bit i'm often not clear on the new products aspect of things. Prticularily where pharmaceuticals and biotech get involved because of the whole aproval process. Seems like there will often be a big run up when they go to human testign then the stocks often drift into obscurity.
just curious for some thoughts.
"What is CAN SLIM®?
CAN SLIM is IBD's checklist for the seven common characteristics all great performing stocks have before they make their biggest gains. You can significantly reduce your risk and increase returns by using the CAN SLIM Investment Research Tool as a fact-based performance checklist to evaluate a stock before you buy.
C= Current earnings per share should be up 25% or more and in many cases accelerating in recent quarters. Quarterly sales should also be up 25% or more or accelerating over prior quarters.
A= Annual earnings should be up 25% or more in each of the last three years. Annual return on equity should be 17% or more.
N= A company should have a new product or service that's fueling earnings growth. The stock should be emerging from a proper chart pattern and about to make a new high in price.
S= Supply and demand. Shares outstanding can be large or small, but trading volume should be big as the stock price increases.
L= Leader or laggard? Buy the leading stock in a leading industry. A stock's Relative Price Strength Rating should be 80 or higher.
I= Institutional sponsorship should be increasing. Invest in stocks showing increasing ownership by mutual funds in recent quarters. IBD's Accumulation/Distribution Rating gauges mutual fund activity in a stock.
M= The market indexes, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, should be in a confirmed up trend since three out of four stocks follow the market's overall trend.
copied from IBD website... free pages.
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Registered User
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Oh this was interesting.. got to poking aroud more and stumbled across this. Must be true since it's in print right?
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Joined: 3/25/2005
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Sound to me like you are starting to lean towards being an investor instead of a trader.
I hear the CANSLIM method has proven itself many times over year after year for the buy and hold type person.
Although I must admit that many of the stocks in the IBD 100 show up on my computer generated lists also (which emphasizes volatility).
So, for short term trading also, the IBD 100 can be a good list to review for ideas.
But, when you start talking about CANSLIM and Fundamental analysis and the like, IMO, you are looking for a more hands off approach i.e. buy and hold for weeks, months or whatever.
And there is nothing wrong with this approach except that it just seems like a much slower way to make money i.e. Buy and Wait
Just My Opinion,
mp
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Registered User
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QUOTE (memorableproducts) Sound to me like you are starting to lean towards being an investor instead of a trader.
I hear the CANSLIM method has proven itself many times over year after year for the buy and hold type person.
Although I must admit that many of the stocks in the IBD 100 show up on my computer generated lists also (which emphasizes volatility).
So, for short term trading also, the IBD 100 can be a good list to review for ideas.
But, when you start talking about CANSLIM and Fundamental analysis and the like, IMO, you are looking for a more hands off approach i.e. buy and hold for weeks, months or whatever.
And there is nothing wrong with this approach except that it just seems like a much slower way to make money i.e. Buy and Wait
Just My Opinion,
mp
I agree with what M/P said ...
CANSLIM is more of an investor's approach ... than a trader's ...
So ... how many traders do you know that are sporting a 1500%+ return for the last 9 years ?
And ... you can't say that you're going to use CANSLIM ... and then totally ignore the "M" ...
Scott ...
99.9% of the people who buy charting software ... and try their hand at this game ... will lose ... and lose BIG !
Although ... 99.9% of the people doing it .. will tell you that they're just making money hand over fist ...
There was some very good information in the Worden Report submission by Sir Silent Knight the other day ...
I'm not saying that trading can't be very profitable ... because it can be ...
It can also be very stressful ... and that stress is often distributed to those around you ...
Name a couple of the richest investors in the country ...
Now ... name a couple of the richest traders ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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CANSLIM and IBD 100 offer good ideas for stocks to invest in IF the market trend is up.
However, I don't recall IBD focusing much on when to sell.
They do offer guidelines for limiting losses to 7-8%.
They didn't seem to focus much on when a stock is overbought and should be sold.
If you wait for their rating system to tell you this, it's usually too late IMHO.
For me,when to sell is the most important decision to make.
How about with you guys?
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Joined: 2/5/2006
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QUOTE (scottnlena) Oh this was interesting.. got to poking aroud more and stumbled across this. Must be true since it's in print right?
this number seems a little "cooked". i'd like to see how they calculated it, and how they make there trades. notice the're timeframe allows them to benefit from the blowoff in 99 and the bear of 2000-03.
according to "M" they'd be completely out of the market now, and during the bear of 200-2003. "N" seems to be a variable up to ones opinion.
a lot of these variables you could probably scan for in telechart. or google for on the internet.
using there strategy may be good if you have some money you wanna tuck away long term.
btw ,the ibd 100 index is down 13.5% for the year.
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QUOTE (survivor)
For me,when to sell is the most important decision to make.
Without a doubt !!
As this is the decision most affected by emotion ...
More often than not ... you either having to admit that you were wrong ... and sell a loss ... and crying about that ...
Or selling a profit ... and watching what you left on the table ... and cryng about that ...
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cssgx is the "can slim select growth" fund. it seems to have underperformed the major indexes, since its inception in 2006.
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Joined: 3/25/2005
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Most people don't know this and I don't know it to be fact but I believe it when it has been said that Warren Buffet made most of his money as a trader not as an investor.
Supposedly, the investor part is his facade.
When Warren Buffet buys shares of stock in a company, it has been said that once he is in it, he is in it to stay for a very long time even when the price of his shares are dropping like a rock! If this is the case, then how could he possibly make billions over the years whereas the average great investor may not even come close?
Supposedly, his secret to making all of that money lies in his trading ability to play the options on those underlying stocks that he has bought and seemingly holds onto forever.
He knows how to buys puts and calls. He knows how to strangle and straddle etc. etc.
So when a stock he is in drops like a rock and he doesn't get out -- don't think that he is losing money because he's probably making lots of it. But the average joe wants to know -- What's Mr. Buffet is buying today? And, this may be a ticket in the beginning for those who watch what he's buying but they also need to know when is a good time to get out and lock in their profits -- something they won't learn how to do by following Warren Buffet's lead.
As I said, it has been said that what everyone sees Mr. Buffet investing in is seeing his facade but they are not seeing the things he is really doing behind the scenes to make his millions and billions.
If this is true, then Mr. Buffet should go down in history as the greatest trader that ever lived.
But, to everyone on the outside looking in, they will view him as the greatest investor that ever lived.
(Though, I'm sure there is some truth to that as well because he does make alot of money investing in different businesses too).
Just food for thought,
mp
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QUOTE (survivor)
For me,when to sell is the most important decision to make.
How about with you guys?
I agree survivor.
Like Kenny Rogers says... "You gotta know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em".
(which is what I was alluding to in my piece above about those who follow Warren Buffet's lead).
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Buffet is still trading options of sort ...
If you have some time ... you ought to read his 2007 annual report ... available in pdf format on Bershire's site ...
Although a bit "wordy" ... it has moments of humor that are priceless ...
He spends some time chastising all of these financial "gurus" talking about how the market returning 10%/year over the long haul being a conservative estimate ...
He states that over the last century ... the market returned 5.3%/year ... and it was a "wonderful" century !
The bulk of his options trading is described here ...
"The second category of contracts involves various put options we have sold on four stock indices (the S&P 500 plus three foreign indices). These puts had original terms of either 15 or 20 years and were struck at the market. We have received premiums of $4.5 billion, and we recorded a liability at yearend of $4.6 billion. The puts in these contracts are exercisable only at their expiration dates, which occur between 2019 and 2027, and Berkshire will then need to make a payment only if the index in question is quoted at a level below that existing on the day that the put was written. Again, I believe these contracts, in aggregate, will be profitable and that we will, in addition, receive substantial income from our investment of the premiums we hold during the 15- or 20-year period."
In other words ... if you're one to believe these rosey scenarios ... then he'd just as soon let you give your money to him ... as anyone else ...
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Now then ... reflect on his last sentence ...
It would be one thing if he were simply betting that his performance would out pace that of the indices over the next 15-20 years ...
But ... when he says that they were struck "at the market" ... and that he thought that they "would be profitable" ... means ... very simply ... that he's betting that the markets will be lower 15-20 years from now ... than they have been recently ....
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Registered User
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The puts were sold???
He believes the market will be up in 20 years.
(not exactly a daring call)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
But ... when he says that they were struck "at the market" ... and that he thought that they "would be profitable" ... means ... very simply ... that he's betting that the markets will be lower 15-20 years from now ... than they have been recently ....
Sorry to have to tell you this reality -- but you have it backwards.
He said he sold puts (not buy) and he collected 4.5 billiion dollars in premiums.
When you "sell" puts it means you are hoping that the stock (or market) will rise above the price
that you struck the puts at. Because, if your stock price remains above the strike price at the expiration date then you get to keep all of the premiums free and clear.
So, in Buffet's case, if the stock price is higher then, he will never have to give back any of the
4.5 billion dollars that he collected presently.
Remember, when you sell puts you want the stock (or market ) to rise and you collect the funds(premiums) from the sell right away. And when you buy calls you also want the stock (or market ) to rise but you don't collect funds (premiums), you pay them.
So, to refute your statement about Buffet betting that in 15 to 20 years he expects the market to go down, I'm saying it's just the opposite -- he's hoping the market will be higher.
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
Quote From Buffet:
Again, I believe these contracts, in aggregate, will be profitable and that we will, in addition, receive substantial income from our investment of the premiums we hold during the 15- or 20-year period."
He's saying, in the meantime, he going to take that 4.5 billion dollars he collected and invest it in other ventures over the next 15 - 20 years in hopes of receiving a substantial income from those investment ventures.
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So, what Buffet did is akin to getting a 4.5 billion dollar loan at 0.00% interest over the next 20 years that he won't have to pay back if the market is higher than his strike price in 20 years.
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I have alwayse intended on holding a few longer term positions. For me on ene of the most important things I want is increasing Earnings and revenues. Right now I look for a good chart and look up the information my self, then get into insider trading activity, institutional activity etc etc. It's a pain and If I could find a list that is continualy updated of those stocks that are fundamentaly sound in terms of what I look for then I could simply start from reverse.. work from a list of fundamentaly aproved stuff and look for good charts and entries.
I enjoy the trading.. and have made good money at it.. lately i'm not making much at all. AND it's clear to me that there is very little money in short term tradeing... some market conditions merrit really quick holds but by and large across a broader sample of trades if you were proffitable at the end of 3 days generaly you'll have been more proffitble at the end of 10 days or longer. Not alwayse obviously, and some trade management is naturaly needed.
These short term strategies I guess are good for generating income or a steady burn, IF YOU CAN DO IT CONSISTANTLY, which at the moment I've not been able to. I still want to find a method for packing away a steady stream of bread and butter trades but the big money is in longer holds and catching and hanging onto the big trends. And pyramiding that position as it moves up.
The stocks that make the biggest longer period runs (8 months to 2 years) generaly at some point have increasiing earnings or expected increased earnings.
So the thinking is for that type of hold why not start from teh other end of the equation for simplicitys sake. Let someone else do the hard leg work and All I gotta do is figure out if i'm comfortable with the chart and look for an entry. Vs. find the good chart check the fundamentals.. get dissapointed . . . figure maybee they are late or someone knows something... talk my self into taking another weak trade. . . or wade through 20 bad fundies to find a good one. If I can open a list somewhere and know that for a stock to be on that list it meets my minimum criteria for a longer period hold then why not.... then I can focus onthe technical which I like better anyway.
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Funnymony
this number seems a little "cooked". i'd like to see how they calculated it, and how they make there trades. notice the're timeframe allows them to benefit from the blowoff in 99 and the bear of 2000-03.
That is what I thought. the smiley was intended to convey sarcasm...as well as the "if it's in print it must be true".
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Yep ...
I read it backwards ...
I thought it sounded a bit odd for someone who was buying with both hands ...
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Scott ...
My trading "evolved" like this ...
First ... the individual stocks ... the universe of which was determined by sound fundamentals ... and then entered and disposed of by technicals ... but this was "all consuming" for me ... and way too much sleep was lost wondering what the next day's news would bring ... or what futures were doing overnight ...
Then ... to just index proxies ... the SPY and QQQ (now the QQQQ) ... only seeking a quarter of a point per day ... deciding which way to play purely by momentum ... never holding anything overnight ...
Sounds kinda cheap ... but a quarter point on 5000 shares turned in a respectable annual gain ... as I was able to make that or more on the vast majority of days ...
And now ... I find mutual funds and ETFs ... whose gains or losses outpace the indexes when the markets move ... and that only leaves me with deciding "which" markets to be in ... "long or short" ... and "when" ...
A much more relaxing endeavor compared to the previous two ...
I actually prefer regular funds to ETFs on foreign positions ... as the NAV valuation rules allow me to take advantage of news in the US ... that is not yet figured into those markets ... but will be at the open ...
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Since I use IBD extensively along with Telechart I'd like to clarify some misconceptions about IBD's philosophy.
IBD and its CANSLIM method is ABSOLUTELY NOT for the buy and hold types. IBD's philosophy is to sell quickly once a sell signal is given, which may very well be the same day or a day later or a week later or a year later.
IBD focuses VERY strongly on when to sell, for profit or loss or even breakeven. The site, Mr. O'Neill's books, all place strong emphasis and ongoing education on when to sell....consistently. I can't state that point strongly enough.
Over the years here I've seen several posts mention IBD's rule of selling at a 7% loss. In fact IBD's use of the 7-8% stop loss rule is for a maximum allowed loss. Just as emphatically IBD teaches to sell at a much smaller loss at certain times, i.e. 2%, etc.
IBD places equal importance on technical chart reading and fundamentals.
The famous "IBD 100" list is not a buy list. It's simply a list of the top 100 stocks that have IBD's highest overall ratings. Mr. O'Neill himself states that those stocks near the top of the list are often not the best stocks to consider because by the time they get that highly rated they don't have any room to get better technically and/or fundamentally. Several times during the year more than one IBD 100 stock will be signaling strong sell signals per IBD's own rules, but will stay in the 100 list for quite some time because the stock's individual overall ratings may keep it there. In those cases though you will notice the stock slipping down the list week to week.
IBD teaches and recommends to use other avenues other than the 100 list to find new stock ideas. One main strategy is to focus on young companies that IPO'ed less than 8 years ago. Those prime candidates rarely show up in the IBD 100 list.
As much as I like IBD, nothing can compare to Worden Telechart's superior charting service. I think the IBD+Telechart combo is a wonderful way to find stock candidates and it has certainly improved my trading/investing by combining the two. There is just way too much information out there. IBD+TC has surely simplified things for me as for gathering information before I buy or sell.
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fpetry has it correct.
One other point. Why must long-term/investment and
technical analysis be at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Obviously one could have held things long-term during
the 1990's to 2000 and from 2003 to 2007.
I use a 45 week moving average on the SP500 to determine
when longer-term is acceptable.
I don't see why we should watch a stock change character and fail
simply because we are a "long-term" investor.
Rather than the idea that I'll go down with the ship.
I just consider long-term longer than short-term.
(if it last three years fine. If it last seven even better)
Thanks
diceman
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QUOTE (diceman)
One other point. Why must long-term/investment and
technical analysis be at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Really !!
The person who serves as the pension investment advisor for my company talks about how the market was "flat" from 2000 through 2006 ...
Sorry ... but I don't see "flat" ... I see a market that took a royal dump ...
Now then ... what is the benefit that I am supposed to reap by riding that thing to the bottom ?
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Registered User
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reality I'm not sure of your point.
That was the point I was making.
(long-term is only under bullish conditions)
I don't really care what an investment advisor thinks.
I'm talking about money handled by me.
My point was we don't have to think off long-term as
jumping off a 30 year cliff.
My IRA is in Bonds now and was in 2000/2003 just because
its long-term doesn't mean I have to watch it disappear in a
bear market.
Thanks
diceman
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QUOTE (diceman)
reality I'm not sure of your point.
Thanks
diceman
My point was only that I was in complete agreement with you ....
That even if you brand yourself an "investor" ... that is still no reason that you should ride a position (or market) down 40% ....
That you can be an "investor" ... and not be an "idiot" at the very same time ...
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Registered User
Joined: 11/8/2004
Posts: 89
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I really don't think we should imply that 'Buy & Hold' is lesser or greater than short term trading. It's really a function of how well one does using any system. I do both. I have many long term holdings and my requirement for these is to average a minimum of 17.5% per annum. I use travelling stops on most holdings. I also trade short term.
I have often thought about taking a look at the IBD's CANSLIM and may take a look at their data as well. This doesn't mean one doesn't use technical analysis, it's supplemental.
If you recall Livermore, who was one of the earlier trend followers, would hold a position until it began to turn against him. This was not day trading but longer term.
as always,
/* Phil */
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funny about the "investor/idiot' scenario. I met this mutual fund sales man.. wanted me to work for him but i couldn't swallow his teaching. worked for a subsidiary of Citibank or citigroup.. what ever. Anyway he's a "Long term Investor" and thinks what I do is senseless. Also teaches that it can't be done (at the time I was donig it). The idea of stop losses was nonesense to him.. you can't accumulate wealth if you are constantly selling out ! .. you need to view those times as a "Sale" on your stock and buy more.
also was big into teaching people that even the market pros don't do that great at it that is why mean reversion strategies are what they use (my distilation) and suggests people sign up for rebalancing their mutual funds quarterly.. selling what went up by more than the index and buying more of what went down. . . . . .
MOST of his holdings are in C ... I bumped into him in November at a convience store and the conversation went something like this.
"Hey hows it going... the family etc etc."
"Similar response "
then .." sorry about your "C" stock"
Response .. "It'll come up (thinking to my self.. dude your company is begging for a bailout !), I don't do anything short term, it's been through dips before. (thinking to self -33% in 1 month is not a dip!)
It'll work out (thinking to self not likely... anytime soon. What if you need that money) It's like a sale" (thinking to self "at the week old bakery") I smiled .. we parted ways (thinking to self "Sell C first of every month for the next several months"). In his eyes what I do is the riskiest game in town. I'm down 8% through the worst of my tradeing recently...over hundreds of transactions many of which were proffitable. I think in the grand scheeme of things 8% isn't unbearable. I know he had a major stake in "C" ... that was a big part of his retirement. But it's ok .. hes an "investor" and stocks fluxuate... hell buy more now and lower his cost basis and when he retires in agregate they will be winners.
I don't think i'd ever sit by and let hundreds of thousands of dollars go up in smoke if I could help it, even if I did work for the company.. i'd be like "father needs a kidney .. brother needs brain surgery.. sorry".
C is rallying right now off of $17.99. What are the odds it will see $56.00 again any time soon?
I'm amazed at how many people are brainwashed by wallstreet and are convinced that investing is done over a life long endevor and walking the isle with a hand full of "solid companies". I may not be the greatest trader... I admit that. BUT i'm not that bad!
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Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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This scan will find companies with accelerating earnings. Tinker with the values to broaden results if you choose. I only look at this occassionaly as I get the majority of my research candidates from the IBD Top 200 and 100, daily stocks on the move, daily screens, and the 85-85 index (newer issues). You can't get some of these lists in an excel format so it is a bit of a pain to get some of them into Telecharts.
EPS Percent Change Lates Quarter value-17.3 to Max
EPS Percent Change 2nd Qrtr back value-14.5 to Max
EPS Percent Change 3rd Qrtr back value-14.3 to Max
EPS Percent Change 4th Qrtr back value-14.3 to Max
Price Per Share 10-80
Price as percent of 52 week high value-75 to Max
volume > 150K
BOP Net Change Market Rank-3 to Max
My opinion on investing using the CAN SLIM Method is to buy and hold as long as it is making money. There is no time frame, though it appears that historically the average hold time for the biggest gainers is around 6 to 18 months.
"How to Make Money in Stocks" is very clear on buying right (long), using fundamentals first to identify the best companies, then charts to identify the correct point at which to buy. It is also clear on cutting losses at no more than 8% if you are not right. Selling using CAN SLIM is technical as companies with huge earnings have been known to sell off while earnings are still rising.When to sell a big winner is probably the most difficult thing to do as there is not one clear startegy, but several signals to consider. John Boik has written a book on this type of active investing called "Monster Stocks". Again much emphasis is placed on how and when to sell.
One thing I will say is that to use this system is very laborious and time intensive....if you plan to follow it to the letter. After chasing technicals, indicators, and swing trading for a while, I wasn't satified with the results nor did it suit me personally. I can't say why, I just never felt comfortable even though I made money.I forayed into the CAN SLIM strategy and have found that even though it is a good deal of work on the front end, it suits me. I feel like I am hunting.....Because I have opted to dedicate my time to this one and only strategy, cutting out all of the other noise, I have only taken 2 positions so far. Unless I see some energy from either of the stocks I own, (both have been up as much as 5%) or the markets I will close them both with less than a 7% loss, maybe a small profit.
The key to this system is patience.....Thanks for listening.
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Posts: 6,049
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""I'm amazed at how many people are brainwashed by wallstreet and are convinced that investing is done over a life long endevor and walking the isle with a hand full of "solid companies"."
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Scott
I think you are missing the concept of growth and reinvestment of dividends.
I still have several early mutual funds I bought. In the mid 80's to early
90's.
With something like 1000 to 3000 dollars. These things are worth
something like 30,000 to 50,000 dollars today.
That is what keeps the "myth" alive.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (diceman)
""I'm amazed at how many people are brainwashed by wallstreet and are convinced that investing is done over a life long endevor and walking the isle with a hand full of "solid companies"."
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Scott
I think you are missing the concept of growth and reinvestment of dividends.
I still have several early mutual funds I bought. In the mid 80's to early
90's.
With something like 1000 to 3000 dollars. These things are worth
something like 30,000 to 50,000 dollars today.
That is what keeps the "myth" alive.
Thanks
diceman
I'm not shure I follow you? did you ever hold them through a 65% drawdown?
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Registered User
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"I'm not shure I follow you? did you ever hold them through a 65% drawdown?"
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Yes. Whatever drawdowns have been in the market.
(assuming 65% happened)
(the crash of 1987)
I basically didn't touch these after buying.
My initial investment in these was so small relative to
the rest of my accounts that I didn't touch it.
During poor market times the yield typically goes
up on these. More shares are bought and over
time you are well ahead of the game.
This is what is meant by compound growth and
dividend reinvestment.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (diceman)
"I'm not shure I follow you? did you ever hold them through a 65% drawdown?"
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Yes. Whatever drawdowns have been in the market.
(assuming 65% happened)
(the crash of 1987)
I basically didn't touch these after buying.
My initial investment in these was so small relative to
the rest of my accounts that I didn't touch it.
During poor market times the yield typically goes
up on these. More shares are bought and over
time you are well ahead of the game.
This is what is meant by compound growth and
dividend reinvestment.
Thanks
diceman
not surprising your buy and hold strategy worked, afterall the 80's and 90's was the biggest bull market in history. now suppose you'd bought in 1929, 1963, or 2000? i think i'd rather have been invested elsewhere in those time periods.
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Registered User
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"not surprising your buy and hold strategy worked, afterall the 80's and 90's was the biggest bull market in history. now suppose you'd bought in 1929, 1963, or 2000? i think i'd rather have been invested elsewhere in those time periods."
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Well the point isn't that there are good and bad times in the market.
The point was stocks go up over time.
(time is what cured 29, 63, 2000)
Scott's statements make it sound like the SP500 has lost
10% every year its been in existence.
(at least that's the way it sounds to me)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (diceman)
"not surprising your buy and hold strategy worked, afterall the 80's and 90's was the biggest bull market in history. now suppose you'd bought in 1929, 1963, or 2000? i think i'd rather have been invested elsewhere in those time periods."
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Well the point isn't that there are good and bad times in the market.
The point was stocks go up over time.
(time is what cured 29, 63, 2000)
Scott's statements make it sound like the SP500 has lost
10% every year its been in existence.
(at least that's the way it sounds to me)
Thanks
diceman
Really ? I didn't intend that .. where do I imply that. The point I was tryig to make was that it dosen't make allot of sense to me to hold and continue to buy through a 65% retracement in an individual stock. A mutual fund or some high dividend vehicle sould be much better.
Then again maybee I'm totaly wrong.. If a person has the siscipline to stay with a stock that is solid enough then maybee all the brokers are right... buy a stock and stay with it no matter where it goes for years and years.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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QUOTE (scottnlena) .. If a person has the siscipline to stay with a stock that is solid enough then maybee all the brokers are right... buy a stock and stay with it no matter where it goes for years and years.
Like GE?
Over the past 10 years it has grown about 9.8%...........accounting for the one stock split. That's 0.98% growth/year Plus it's current 3.9% dividend yield = a 4.88% annual yield. Subtract for inflation and I'm not sure holding this stock for the past decade makes much sense.
I wonder how other big name stocks performed during the past decade. I'm sure there is a study on that somewhere that we could all learn from.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Well lets just have an asteroid smash into earth
and be done with it.
I Win !!!!
(I'm guessing 1929, 65% drawdowns and yes even GE
would be a walk in the park compared to that but I could
be wrong)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (diceman)
Well lets just have an asteroid smash into earth
and be done with it.
I Win !!!!
(I'm guessing 1929, 65% drawdowns and yes even GE
would be a walk in the park compared to that but I could
be wrong)
Thanks
diceman
Ha ha ha ha ! ! !
Survivor.. i'm with you .. I have no idea how to calculate and figure in the divident reinvestment and dollar cost averaging of a lifetime of buying GE .. maybe it would be good. I know people have become famous for averagign up and jumping ship at the turn of the trend... that amkes sense to me. i did a study with aINTC in excel averaging down making ocasional new purchases on a monthly basis as though i'm an investor and send money frommy paycheck monthly to my broker And I was quickly holding a loss that was growing despite my averaging down. BUT after I was all tapped out eventually price came back to 75% of it's former high I asumed I bought on and it did make allot of money. But it's contingent on price moving back up some signifficant amount and the ability to watch your money seemingly go up in smoke and be ok with it.
Teh people that I know that made big money on those sorts of companies... are old now.. and were buying it like back in early 80's .. so as you can see they happened to catch a great trend and pyramid it up as they went along with their dividends and any new deposits. That's the ideal. But often people get TZOO after the glory, Microsoft now. and such and so forth.
as i understand it's less likely that the leaders of yesteryear will again be the big leaders of today and tomorrow. They will be big, and stable and solid.. but check GE in 1985 2.66 a share. Can they go higher.. shure.. but they are so liquid now that it would take a great amount of buying to make GE double again let alone see another 2600% return again . Even if you did give it 20 years.
But what do I know?
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/25/2004
Posts: 79
Location: Illinois
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I think IBD's method revolves around the stock "base" pattern. The investor must wait for the "buy point" which comes after a stock has formed a proper "base". The investor needs to be able to spot a base forming (cup w/handle being the favorite/basic pattern) which could indicate accumulation. Then the investor needs to have the patience to wait for the "breakout" (the buy point).
For this method to work, the market has to settle back down - much too volatile lately. Also, this method ensures that you won't be buying at the bottom - you must wait for the proof (the breakout). I just learned all of this prior to last year's peak when I started an IBD subscription. They would tell you that now would be the time to watch for those bases to be forming by the potential new leaders. The idea is to have a list of buy candidates but wait for the "proof" of the stock's strength (along with the aid of the general market). It's still a matter of support and resistance but the "base" pattern helps you become aware of the possible accumulation taking place.
Using Telechart to go back in time to look at the beginning of the long uptrend of many stocks, I tend to believe they're on to something. I've been too anxious lately - several times caught myself anticipating the buildup to a possible breakout only to have the stock either resume the base building or fail completely. Lack of patience (along with a highly volatile market) is my biggest problem at the moment.
Just thought I'd throw my 2cents in - I can't say IBD has provided me with success (yet) but, hopefully, I'm gaining the ability to "time" my trades better. I tend to be overwhelmed with all of the (fundamental) data IBD provides but I also tend to believe that the justification of a stock's rise above "congestion" can be better assessed by looking for that "proper base" and definately waiting for that "proper buy point".
rtdip
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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By the way Scott.
(assuming the asteroid doesn't arrive)
When it comes to earning changes you may
be interested in this:
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Diceman.
Thanks.. I've actually already got that template... I was hoping to plop in a pcf or two into concepts that I already work with to ensure that i'm working with stocks that are already showing increased EPs. I do need to rewatch that video though. During nap time I'll review it thanks.
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