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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Think about the impact of this news not just now but far into the future. How do you think it will change the economic landscape? What about the auto industry? What about transportation - semis, trucks, deliveries, mail and on, and on?
Do you think that we may eventually go all nuclear? Nuclear cars? What about the fact that interest rates are already rising and there is no near stop? This may be the beginning of another crisis, not thought yet. Look closely at the comments from Secretary general Adnan.
Here is the article, enjoy it.
April crude closed at $53.57 a barrel, up 1 percent, or 52 cents. The contract traded as low as $52.85 and as high as $55.20, which brought it close to the all-time high of $55.67 set on Oct. 25.
April unleaded gasoline added 1.6 percent, or 2.37 cents, to close at $1.5075 a gallon, but April heating oil was off 1.2 percent, or 1.77 cents, to close at $1.4908 a gallon.
Acting OPEC Secretary-General Adnan Shihab-Eldin said the possibility of oil prices rising to $80 a barrel over the next two years is highly unlikely, but he couldn't rule out the chances of such a steep spike, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing the Kuwaiti daily Al -Qabas.
Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said the OPEC headlines as well as record gas prices and cold weather provided the backdrop for Thursday's position.
"OPEC is backing away from production cuts pretty rapidly," he said, though he added that prices are "some way ahead" of fundamental factors.
Crude-oil futures rose to their highest level in four months Wednesday after the Energy Department said that U.S. distillate supplies fell last week but that crude and gasoline inventories rose.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported a large contraction in gasoline supplies, an even bigger buildup in crude stocks and a smaller drop in distillate inventories.
Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International predicts crude prices will reach $60 soon.
"There seems to be no stopping the crude oil as the multiple factors of colder weather, higher demand, refinery disruption and supply concerns for products all weigh on traders minds," he said. "I expect to see a new record high by next week unless supply concerns are somehow calmed, which is unlikely."
Kerr called the gasoline situation critical.
"For weeks, many analysts have been downplaying the grave situation gasoline stocks are facing this summer but now they are...acknowledging that there may be some serious problems," Kerr said.
The latest cold snap in the Northeast means refineries are going to have to put off ramping up production of gasoline ahead of the summer driving season, Kerr said.
"With the calendar now...in March, precious time is being lost," he said.
Natural gas for April delivery was off 6 cents to close at $6.657 per million British thermal units.
The Energy Department reported a draw down in storage of 107 billion cubic feet (Bcf), in-line-to-less-than what analysts had expected. The data showed that working gas in storage as of Feb. 25 was 1.6 trillion cubic feet, which is 415 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 358 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1.3 trillion cubic feet.
Oil and gas stocks closed higher with the Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX: news, chart, profile) was up 2.4 percent to close at 142.82 points. See Energy Stocks.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/23/2004
Posts: 11
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such a cunumdrum -- HIGHER oil prices partly due to COLDER winter temperatures -- LOWER than expected natural gas usage due to WARMER than expected winter temps -- no doubt all because of "global warming" lol
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (pritchard) such a cunumdrum -- HIGHER oil prices partly due to COLDER winter temperatures -- LOWER than expected natural gas usage due to WARMER than expected winter temps -- no doubt all because of "global warming" lol<img src="/training/images/emoticons/ip.gif"/>
Dear ritchard I heard people say the same thing you are saying now when the price of crude was hitting 30's just about 6 months ago. I wonder what they are saying now.
Crude is an extinguishing commodity; the demmand is growing by the day and the supply is decreasing by the day as well. You cannot manufacture it and you cannot stop using it, in fact you cannot even decrease its use - greater economies need more fuel to keep running and expanding. The economy as we know it doesn't run without it. If the global infrastructure cannot be changed before we run out of oil then you are going to face some real problems and this is not unreal.
I can tell you one thing, the hidrogen car (hidrogen energy in general) is a quick fix to this problem, and will not take for the long run. You as well as I will probably not be around to see this, but it will happen. They need a clean source of energy that can support the economic infrastructure and at the same time preserve the planet. That will take creating the source as well as building the infrastracture for its use.
May be you can elaborate some ideas while relaxing in your island.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/23/2004
Posts: 11
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the island is a great example of most peoples reference point for all resourses. 87% of the world is water covered-dry land. Who knows how much oil lies not only on the close-in shores but deep water pools as well. not to mention those oil sands yet to be tapped by necessity and , yes, cost as well. There is more known oil reserve under ground today than the already-produced-consumed-and leaked to date. Recall the 70's oil shock and by 1980, VOILA! we had Mobil and its synthetic oil for 2 bux a qt. - Japanese cars with 40 miles per. - we found a way thru capitalism and free marketism - sure it hurts at 2.00 a gallon for gas, just because we don't want to pay it - but inflation adjust our gas @ 4% since 1980, use $1.00 a gallon as a start and you get $2.66 a gallon today -- GOSH -- yep, 80 a BBL is disturbing, but in 1975, so was the threat of thir--r-irty -- lol
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Joined: 3/21/2005
Posts: 1
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In the Article "Have Oil Stocks Seen Their Peak?" By Gary B. Smith, listed by Yahoo Finance at the bottom of the COP chart, the chart done by Worden & Chartman concluded that the run had broken based on the low-lines evident in recent trading. Actually, the low-lines view was not nearly long enough. If you view the low-lines (the only immediately clear indicator of a stock's future performance) over a year instead of a month, you can see where the true direction is. This is the difference between a "trend" (longer-term) and a "run" (extremely short-term).
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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What are you implying Vanguardian? Do you think that the oil run is peaking or has peaked already? Are you implying that the trend of crude oil futures is down or not up?
Price of crude has almost double in about a 6 month period.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/29/2005
Posts: 2
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I think stock traders are placing too much emphasis on daily fluctuations in crude prices. The industry, itself, doesn't do its business (drilling for and producing gas and oil based on daily fluctuations. They base their business on the trend. So should traders. The important thing that that the trend is up, not whether the spot price of crude went up or down $1.00 today.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well I hope my remarks were well taken over 5 months ago, as it is much obvious now.
Furthermore new crude refining problems arising from the devastation of Katrina are very likely to hit the economy hard.
While all of this is taken place you have the 3 mayor automobile industries spending billions in a marketing campaing to hit the ignorant into buying more SUVs.
Isn't something wrong here?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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QUOTE (pritchard) the island is a great example of most peoples reference point for all resourses. 87% of the world is water covered-dry land. Who knows how much oil lies not only on the close-in shores but deep water pools as well. not to mention those oil sands yet to be tapped by necessity and , yes, cost as well. There is more known oil reserve under ground today than the already-produced-consumed-and leaked to date. Recall the 70's oil shock and by 1980, VOILA! we had Mobil and its synthetic oil for 2 bux a qt. - Japanese cars with 40 miles per. - we found a way thru capitalism and free marketism - sure it hurts at 2.00 a gallon for gas, just because we don't want to pay it - but inflation adjust our gas @ 4% since 1980, use $1.00 a gallon as a start and you get $2.66 a gallon today -- GOSH -- yep, 80 a BBL is disturbing, but in 1975, so was the threat of thir--r-irty -- lol
Unfortunately, most of the water is too deep, cold temperatures not feet, to allow oil and gas "cooking" in those formations that contain kerogen(sp). Your statement that "There is more known oil under the ground..." is taken out of context. There is in fact more oil in known reservoirs than has been produced, however, even with the current high prices the majority of that oil is economically unrecoverable. Natural forces such as viscosity, relative permeability, leaves more oil in the reservoirs than allows for production.
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