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How can this market be considered a Bear with interest rates near zero? and the Dow still within reach of it's all time high.? Isn't the last confirmed Bear Market below Dow 2000? and aren't we above Dow 12000 now? Think about it..
There are 2 kinds of Bear Markets -- Secular Bear (Long Term Horizon) and Cyclical Bear(Short Term -- could only last a few weeks or months before its transfers into a cyclical bull and then maybe back to a cyclical bear again).
But, overall (for the long term horizon) I say we are still in a Cyclical Bull market at least until interest rates get back up above, I don't know, let say 8% or more.
We could possible be riding the wave of a Cyclical Bear within a Secular Bull market right now. But, overall this is still a Bull market.
mp
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I"m with you. BUT allot of people use the term "bear" to mean different time frames
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What interest rates ?
Thirty year Bond ?
Or Thirty year Mortgage ?
LIBOR ?
or Corporate paper ?
Or ... are we not in a bear market unless the Fed SAYS we're in a bear market ?
I'm not saying that we're in a bear market ...
The Hang Seng topped out around 32K ... and now it's 23K ... I'm not saying that they're in a bear market ...
Shanghai topped out around 6200 ... and now they're around 3500 ... I'm not saying that they're in a bear market ...
I could go on and on ... but ... it just doesn't matter ... Bear Market ... Bull Market ... those are just words ...
In short ... I listen to the market ... cause it sure as hell ain't gonna listen to me ...
Everything else is just sexy words to sell newspapers ...
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QUOTE (scottnlena) I"m with you. BUT allot of people use the term "bear" to mean different time frames
Good point, Scott.
Reality --
The interest rates of which I speak are the Fed Funds Rate and The Fed Discount Rate.
The market of which I speak is only the U.S. stock market.
Thanks,
mp
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So then ... you're saying that the FOMC is in total control of whether we are in a bull or bear market at any given time ...
I don't really think that you can "talk the market up" ... if you could ... those commentators on CNBC would have it at 50,000 by now ...
Over the last 25 years ... the baby boomers have been in their prime ... working and saving and funding the stock market ....
Aside from whatever temporary problems the market may be going through at the moment ... the baby boomers are now starting to retire ... and withdrawl and live off of that which they have so carefully tucked away ...
Not only will this have a "de-funding" effect on the market ... it also has a detrimental effect on the economy ... as retired people typically don't spend as much as working folks ...
And ... from what I've seen of Generation X & Generation Y ... don't expect them to save the first dime ...
They seem to spend every dime that they get their hands on ... and still keep their hands stretched out to their parents ... IF they even leave home ...
Fundamentally ... I see the odds stacked against the maret for years to come ...
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NO, the FOMC is not in total control of the direction of the stock market but they are playing a gigantic part. Have you forgotten that many of the baby boomers have 401k's which mostly invest in the stock market. The baby boomers are just beginning to retire and the end of the retirement train won't occur at least for another 12 years or more -- they're not all going to retire at once. in the meantime, there is alot of cash sitting in 401k's right now waiting to be reinvested.
Furthermore, the notion that baby boomer alone will determine the fate of the stock market as they begin to retire is a myth since much of the money feeding the stock market these days is coming from foreign investors and there are lots of them -- probably just waiting for prices in the stock market to bottom out so that they can get in at a bargain and drive the market back up again.
Remember, we are in the electronic stock market age now and you have to start thinking globally. It is so much easier for Piere over in France or Alfredo over in Italy or whomever to trade our markets.
Any set back in the markets will be temporary for a long time to come.
mp
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Well ...
I guess that IS what makes a market ... now isn't it ?
People on both sides of the equation ....
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sounds like someone is living in denial.....
whether or not we've made the bottom, i don't know but, i think most professional technicians consider this market a bear market. p&d worden to name two.
there are many definitions of a bear market, a 20% decline of major indexes, a longterm sideways trending market, like in the 70's, or a technical definition, a market iwhere the long term trend is down.
the 20% decline rule has been met by some of the indexes, the nasdaq and the russel 2000, to name two. and what is the rate of return of the qqqq's or spy over the last 10 years? 1-2%? and while were at it why don't we adjust that for inflation, and the devaluation of the dollar. thats secular bear stuff.
i myself , of course, favor the technical definition, the long term trend all major indexes are down. the 200 dma is clearly sloping down, the 50 is trading below the 200dma, and the uptrend established over the last few years have been broken, and down trending channels have been established.
to me secular bear or cyclical bear, a bears a bears, and i want to be out of the market regardless.
interest rates really have nothing to do with defining a bear market. they were lower in the 2000-2002 market. i think its safe to say that was a bear market. interest rates are also low for a reason. investors are flocking to safe havens, such as bonds, and the federal reserves obviously sees a problem. interesting thing about this bear market is we began in a low interest rate environment. and many believe low interest rates are what caused the current bear market.
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Remember that the market is the market. What's in your account determines
if things are bullish or bearish.
(wasn't there a post somewhere about Netfilx going up? Cant happen in a bear
correct?)
Thanks
diceman
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Theres the dow theory definition. both the dj-30 and dj-20 made new reeaction lows in jan-08, confirming the primary bear.
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ther is also the bulk of stocks trading below various moving averages or I'm growing partial to the Tracking phases of the bulk of stocks.
right now of all stocks
4048 are below their 50 EMA and the 50 EMA is below the200
However the number of "Recovering stocks has been averaging up a bit to end at
1444
so there is clear preasure not eh donw side
BUT the number of bullish is begining to rise a bit as well as accumulation while distribution is falling
bullish as of friday 704
Distribution 245
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darnit... didn't check before posing.
"not eh donw side"was suposed to be "On the down side"
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The question about bear market or no bear market may best be evaluated by understanding as much as possible about the financial crises going on in the credit markets right now.
I am going to post two articles concerning this matter for your review. I'll post one article first, and then the second.
The first article is about S. Das and was published early last Fall. The second article is about Buffet and Gross and was published on March 11.
I hope you find some value in reading these.
(copyrighted material removed by Moderator)
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(copyrighted material removed by Moderator)
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OK ...
But other than that one little problem ... that's five times greater than the combined capitalization of all of the world's financial markets .... things are looking pretty darn good .... right ??
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You got that right. Just like the Bobby Mcferrin's song tells us: "don't worry, be happy"
BTW - 3 homes in my gated community were forclosed on this past week. But I just keep singing that song 'cause our trusted politicians and financial gurus like at Bear Sterns tell us everything is just fine. And they never lie do they? 
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don't forget the presidental cycle, isn't the rebate timed to work with the election. its has potential for an attempt to test the previous high, this would be a rally in a bear cycle.
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For the near term, your assessment may well be correct Jimstacey. I hope so.
For intermediate to longer term "investing" purposes, I am not as confident.
To me, a very brief summary of the above two articles boils down to this:
- 5 fold increase in the growth of derivatives to $500+ TRILLION in 5 years
- World's GDP for all nations is around $50 TRILLION
- The world's derivatives outstanding are > 10X the TOTAL Global Domestic
Product
- Credit risk shifted from the regulated bank industry to less regulated
industries.........
- Turning $1 of "real" capital into $20 - $30 of loans
To me, this represents a significant "caution" flag for those of us trying to make $ in the markets.
Debt can unravel very quickly, and often times it's the "little" guy / investor who gets blind-sided on this.
Recent Fed action with Bear Sterns was telling us they at least are alert to this significant problem.
I wonder if ayone really knows how many more Bear Sterns are out there.
How many more can be bailed out?
How will this affect the dollar going forward?
What are the real financial conditions in foreign markets?
My posts are not meant to create fear, but rather to offer some insight into what might really be going on, so that none of us become "victims" of TV or political hype.
If we stay alert, agile and smart, we can make money in most any market condition headed our way.
Thanks,
survivor
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QUOTE (funnymony) sounds like someone is living in denial.....
whether or not we've made the bottom, i don't know but, i think most professional technicians consider this market a bear market. p&d worden to name two.
there are many definitions of a bear market, a 20% decline of major indexes, a longterm sideways trending market, like in the 70's, or a technical definition, a market iwhere the long term trend is down.
the 20% decline rule has been met by some of the indexes, the nasdaq and the russel 2000, to name two. and what is the rate of return of the qqqq's or spy over the last 10 years? 1-2%? and while were at it why don't we adjust that for inflation, and the devaluation of the dollar. thats secular bear stuff.
i myself , of course, favor the technical definition, the long term trend all major indexes are down. the 200 dma is clearly sloping down, the 50 is trading below the 200dma, and the uptrend established over the last few years have been broken, and down trending channels have been established.
to me secular bear or cyclical bear, a bears a bears, and i want to be out of the market regardless.
interest rates really have nothing to do with defining a bear market. they were lower in the 2000-2002 market. i think its safe to say that was a bear market. interest rates are also low for a reason. investors are flocking to safe havens, such as bonds, and the federal reserves obviously sees a problem. interesting thing about this bear market is we began in a low interest rate environment. and many believe low interest rates are what caused the current bear market.
All of your statistics just proves that we may be in a cyclical bear market (temporary). The next prolonged rally which still expect to happen this year will put us into cyclical bull mode again.
And yes, interest rates do have much to do with stock market direction. When interest rates are very low as they are now, there are very few investment vehicles for with more promise of growth on an investors capital than the stock market. Now, lately investors have been funnelling more of there capital into commodities but this has always been more riskier than putting those funds to work in the stock market.
The so called bear of 2000 to 2002 was another cyclical bear within our long term bull market.
I believe the reports of not so stellar earnings from corporations had much to do with the slowing of the bulls back then -- so don['t try to blame low interest rates for causing a bear market back then.
The more I think about it now, I seem to recalled that the 2000 to 2002 period was when Greenspan was beginning to steadily raise interest rates again and he over did it causing the economy to stall. Right?
Then he tried to repair his damage by reversing the interest rate direction but the repairs to his mistakes were not immediately apparent until Bernake took over and continued to lower the rates.
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QUOTE (jimstacy) don't forget the presidental cycle, isn't the rebate timed to work with the election. its has potential for an attempt to test the previous high, this would be a rally in a bear cycle.
This is a good point, Jim. But, I say that it will not be a rally within a bear market but a cyclical bull run within a continued Secular Bull Market (Long Term Bull until interest rates get higher again where investors will then have more options to place there capital other than the stock market).
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Survivor,
I appreciate your post on the articles concerning the credit crunch crisis. But, doesn't it look to you like the stock market has already reacted to this mess and has factored in this situation already?
The stock market seems to be moving sideways (up, down, back up, back down) right now instead of straight down thanks to recent interventions by the Fed.
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Hey memorableproducts -
I'm not sure.
I agree with you that there is long term Bull Market trend line going all the way back to the early 80's. I hope it remains intact.
However, if Buffet, Gross and other financial gurus can not understand the world's $516 TRILLION derivatives, then my alert flag goes up a bit.
The markets will tell us soon enough if the Reagan Bull Market has ended or not.
The underlying debt problem appears to be very significant and unsupportable.
At least there are now both long and short ETFs we can buy to keep us on the winning side no matter what the future holds.
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Bull , Bear, Temporoary, Prolonged, Secular, etc .... all just words ...
Markets don't go up ... or straight down ...
Here is where we are ....
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Above ... I meant to say "straight up" ... rather than just "up" ...
He in the interview with Das ... he stated that Fed action would likely be able to ease the transition ... but not the overall effect ...
And in the decline from 2000-2002 ... there were many multi-month rallies ...
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QUOTE (memorableproducts)
All of your statistics just proves that we may be in a cyclical bear market (temporary). The next prolonged rally which still expect to happen this year will put us into cyclical bull mode again.
And yes, interest rates do have much to do with stock market direction. When interest rates are very low as they are now, there are very few investment vehicles for with more promise of growth on an investors capital than the stock market. Now, lately investors have been funnelling more of there capital into commodities but this has always been more riskier than putting those funds to work in the stock market.
The so called bear of 2000 to 2002 was another cyclical bear within our long term bull market.
I believe the reports of not so stellar earnings from corporations had much to do with the slowing of the bulls back then -- so don['t try to blame low interest rates for causing a bear market back then.
The more I think about it now, I seem to recalled that the 2000 to 2002 period was when Greenspan was beginning to steadily raise interest rates again and he over did it causing the economy to stall. Right?
Then he tried to repair his damage by reversing the interest rate direction but the repairs to his mistakes were not immediately apparent until Bernake took over and continued to lower the rates.
There are no universally accepted rules for defining a secular bear market. But in very general terms, it’s a long time, perhaps 10 to 20 years, characterized by below-average stock market returns . Contrast this with a cyclical bear market, which typically lasts from a few months to a year. A secular bear market doesn’t mean stocks go straight down over a long period. basically, just below average rate of returns over a long period of time.
qqqq current 10 year annual rate of return-----4%, inflation not included.
spy current 10 year annual rate of return-----3.8%, inflation not included
1966-1981 secular bear----annual rate of return 6.0%, inflation 7%
as you can see if were not in a secular bear were close, depending on where you get your inflation numbers.
actually greenspan increased liquidity pre-y2k, then took it back post y2k, then began lowering in 2001. check the irx--x chart.
secular or cyclical bear? this is really just an academic argument.
primary bear, and trending down? definitely, and that all that really matters.
cheers
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But ... you're not alone M/P ...
I posted a story just this morning over at telechart-junkies where a typically conservative newsletter writer, Richard Band, thinks that we could see Dow 16,000 this year ...
For me ... that's a bit far out ... but what do I know ...
I let the market guide me ... and right now it's telling me that the trend is down ... for how far ... or for how long ... I don't know ... nor would I even hazzard to guess ...
And in the greater scheme of things ... at least for my purposes ... I don't really see where any of that even matters ...
My priorities are Capital Preservation first ... Capital Growth second ...
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Registered User
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QUOTE (realitycheck) My priorities are Capital Preservation first ... Capital Growth second ...
You sure have got that right realitycheck.
I went back and looked at some long term charts. You guys might want to do the same. At least check out the SP-500.
Clearly, there has been a long term Bull Market trend going back to 1982.
However, I didn't fully appreciate how far the markets had degraded relative to that trend line.
The trend line has been pierced a number of times in March, and the close on March 17 was actually below that long term ternd line.
I guess we're closer to finding out what the market is trying to tell us than I realized.
And talk about capital growth opportunities, since the market close on Dec 31, 1999 to Friday's market close, had we put all of our money in any of these indexes, here is what our TOTAL return would have been (not including inflation).
DJ-30 +6.26%
DWC--X -4.04%
SP-500 -10.48%
COMPQX -44.43%
Somehow checking this out didn't make me feel any better. 
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You guys have to really put your statements into some type of
perspective.
(one of the reasons the markets flat is we just had one of the
greatest runs in market history. Of course even with a "flat"
return there were all types of individual stock profits to be
made)
It reminds me of the time of the Tsunami. It almost became the in
thing for all stores to have little cups out: "Give to the Tsunami
victims". When that was at its peak (I believe something like
250,000 were killed or injured.) I saw a little article inside the
newspaper. It stated that 2 to 2.5 million die each year from
malaria. (each year!)
Its interesting what we choose to focus on.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One wonders of the spirit of the people who actually lived through
the great depression.
The spirit of those who fought World War 2.
(we probably lost as many troops in about 45 minutes
as we have in IRAQ)
I remember hearing a story about George Washington. (I don't know
if its true) He was a very popular president. He was asked if he would
be interested in staying president after his term. He said isn't that why
we left Britain? (he didn't want to be "King")
Imagine today's politicians being asked that question.
Maybe its just me but it seems we are way too spoiled. We cry and
moan over hardships. When we have the highest standard of living
on earth.
It was only as far back as my grandparents. When
success was defined as feeding your family.
Employment was your career.
Vacation was a day in the yard.
(if you had one)
Home items were children's toys.
You were not worried about the markets.
(you had no investments)
Gas prices didn't matter.
(you didn't have a car)
Of course you saved money on cable TV, cell phone,
and internet access bills.
(and they call those the good old days)
Thanks
diceman
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QUOTE (diceman)
You guys have to really put your statements into some type of
...When we have the highest standard of living on earth.
As usual ... i agree with most of what you post ....
Until I got to this statement ...
Standard of Living ... is normally internationally quantified by the HDI ...
And we aren't even in the Top 10 ...
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Just my opinion but I think this is baloney.
(kinda like UN peacekeeping)
(ya think everyone will pack up and move to Iceland?)
As I'm sure you know many "tricks" are played with these numbers.
(and the agenda of the beancounter. Their are many who cant stand the US
at the top of any list and make sure it works that way)
Thanks
diceman
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Don't think its within most peoples means to move to a foreign country even if they wanted too.
Illiteracy, crime, lower life expectancy in the united states? Naw, can't be.
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QUOTE (driger) Don't think its within most peoples means to move to a foreign country even if they wanted too.
Illiteracy, crime, lower life expectancy in the united states? Naw, can't be.
lol, i suppose the next thing they'lll be telling us is the dollar, and usa markets have been underperforming foreign markets over the past several years, too.
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dice ...
You reminded me of the old saying about ... "Ask an engineer what 2+2 is and he'll tell you 4 ... Ask an accountant what 2+2 is ... and he'll ask you how much you want it to be ..."
Yes ... the books can be cooked ...
And ... I don't know a whole lot about most of these places ...
But ... from what I've seen ... the standard of living in Norway does seem to be pretty high ... probably all that oil money ...
One year paid maternity leave ... that kind of stuff ...
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QUOTE (realitycheck) dice ...
You reminded me of the old saying about ... "Ask an engineer what 2+2 is and he'll tell you 4 ... Ask an accountant what 2+2 is ... and he'll ask you how much you want it to be ..."
Yes ... the books can be cooked ...
And ... I don't know a whole lot about most of these places ...
But ... from what I've seen ... the standard of living in Norway does seem to be pretty high ... probably all that oil money ...
One year paid maternity leave ... that kind of stuff ...
Allot of progressive western european countries are like that. but as far as I understand the ones with the great maternity incentives aer facing low birthrate problems.
That said... I'd believe that we genuinely aren't on the top of any of this sort of list. Yea people hate us but sometimes the facts are the facts. Many of us live in our homogenous suburban neighborhoods and don't realy see any further. There is a whole other side of the coin to life in this country. Not saying ti's bad.. but it could be improved. It dosent suprise me that we aren't inthe top 10 in any of those things. But we weren't even inthe top 36!
IMO blind patriotism and the really effective propoganda machine we have keeps most of us pretty complacent. Not everyone is dying to get here. Those people who have it much worse try to come here among other places because it's one of the easiest places to get to. Try emigrating to Australlia.
In the end that sort of thing is a very individual choice. I've met Russians that would never dream of moving to the USA... and I've met some who would never dream of going back. there aren't allot of French beating down the doors to get in here.. but a few do becasue they like the prospects of business and posibilities here.. or have a romantic attachment.
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Listen technically we are not in a secular bear market yet, but will be soon. The 11500 level (DOW) is a close call calling for the 20% reversal needed to call it a bear market. Take the SP500 with a highest of 1564 and a low of 1276 (intraday) and I am sure you can do the math. Nonetheless, the market has been making lower lows, and lower highs for over 5 months now. The trend is down, and that is all you need to know. You don't have to hear that from people, just look at the chart.
By the way, diceman, I think I mentioned before that there are better places to live than the US. Whether it sounds patriotic or not I don't care, but that is the truth. The thing is that you cannot get a feeling for that by looking at a computer screen and reading some statistical data, or allegating your patriotic opinions that tell us US is the best place in the world. It isn't, and is getting worse by the minute.
If you travel abroad you would be able to see. Of course there are many places that are light years away from our standard too. The US is a good place to live, but deterioration of living standar are happening by the minute. Globalization is bringing it to you.
Hope your patriotic friends do something about it, because I can assure you that neither your congress, or senate is going to. Those are the folks who got us where we are in the first place, with the consent of your patriotic, and not patriotic folks.
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Check this long term chart of the SP-500.
Where would your bets be on this? I think is clear - don't you?
By the way this twice the time frame that reality posted. And still offers no prettier picture.
I think the crossing is clear.
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The long cycles in the U.S. equity market in the last century could be defined like this: 1921 to 1929, secular bull market; 1929 to 1949, secular bear; 1949 to 1966, secular bull; 1966 to 1982, secular bear; 1982 to 2000, secular bull.
I think it is obvious that a new secular bear market began in 2000, and that we are now in a cyclical bull market rally in the hangover period. The two big issues are: Have we seen the lows of this secular bear market, and what will be its duration?
Barton Biggs----April 2007
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If I were to reference only the SPX charts put up by reality and BB, I would conclude that a secular bear occured in 2000 and ended in 2003 and that a secular bull comminced in 2003 and continues to this day.
Also, look at the retracement of the secular bull run just before 1999. It was short lived and the secular bull resumed afterwards. Could a similar scenario be occuring now?
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QUOTE (memorableproducts)
Also, look at the retracement of the secular bull run just before 1999. It was short lived and the secular bull resumed afterwards. Could a similar scenario be occuring now?
Well ... of course ...
It's possible that Richard Band's prediction on 16,000 by the end of this year could come true ...
But ... as technicians ... we must act on what we have on the charts at this moment ... and not what may happen ... or what has happened ...
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
But ... as technicians ... we must act on what we have on the charts at this moment ... and not what may happen ... or what has happened ...
Reality, being the technician that you are, you should know better than to make a statement like this. right?
That is exactly the meaning of charts -- they only tell you what has happened and techicians use them to determine what may happen (but they can never be used to tell you what will happen with certainty).
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