Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
CNBC commentators are all scratching their heads over this morning's mkt turnaround. Maybe it's time for someone to step up and say "damn the torpedos, full speed ahead."
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
The one thing that doesn't make sense is the VIX. It indicates that people aren't really scared yet. When I see the VIX in the high 30's and climbing, then we will be getting close to the bottom.... but not now..
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (thekubiaks) The one thing that doesn't make sense is the VIX. It indicates that people aren't really scared yet. When I see the VIX in the high 30's and climbing, then we will be getting close to the bottom.... but not now..
Right ...
And to go one step further ... after having come this far to the downside ... there is really no reason to think that the QQV and the VIX won't retrace to their trendlines (like they have for quite some time) before once again moving higher ...
I posted some charts to this effect over at telechart-junkies ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
markets don't go straight down. theres a rate cut coming. people have been saying dam the torpedos for the last 2000 points.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
|
isn't easy to see why there is no capitulation? and that there will not be one until the government keep its nose out of the market business.
As long as there are bail outs, supply of M3, and nonsense interest rates manipulation this is going to be a long, and agonizing process. Nonetheless the end is not going to be very PRETTY.
Try to change natural forces and you have a great mess at hand.
Bigblock.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (funnymony) markets don't go straight down. theres a rate cut coming. people have been saying dam the torpedos for the last 2000 points.
Oh yeah ... there's a rate cut coming ...
Futures tend to support a 90% chance of a 75 basis point cut in March ...
That will be 300 basis points in 6 months ...
Giving us an FFR of 2.25% ....
And what do you suppose the Fed will be doing in the next 6 months ? (through mid September)
Pretty safe bet that they won't be cutting the FFR another 300 basis points ... don't ya reckon ?
Most of their effect is psychological ... and if they use it all up trying to prop up the stock markets ...
I fear that they will find that their gun is empty .... when morale needs a shot in the arm ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
The market and the Fed are behaving like Japan's did. Are we trying to emulate them? Guess we are if interest rates go to zero.
For long term investors (401K plans etc), the numbers that follow should be quite sobbering. These numbers are from Jan 1, 2000 through yesterday's close:
DJ-30 +8.25% (that's about 1%/year!!)
SP-500 -6.97%
Wilshire 5000 -0.10%
COMPQX -42.73%
With real estate going down, the market going down, oil and commodities going up along with inflation, looks like protracted tough times lie ahead for us middle class folks huh? 
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (survivor) The market and the Fed are behaving like Japan's did. Are we trying to emulate them? Guess we are if interest rates go to zero.
For long term investors (401K plans etc), the numbers that follow should be quite sobbering. These numbers are from Jan 1, 2000 through yesterday's close:
DJ-30 +8.25% (that's about 1%/year!!)
SP-500 -6.97%
Wilshire 5000 -0.10%
COMPQX -42.73%
With real estate going down, the market going down, oil and commodities going up along with inflation, looks like protracted tough times lie ahead for us middle class folks huh?
not if your short the market.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
|
When the Fed runs out of ammo & the recession looks like it will never end. Look for commodities to finally be taking turns topping out & other world banks start to lower their interest rates. This should be the start to the next bull market or it could be.
Looks like this market could go onto a holding pattern the first part of next week before starting down again to give us the next big capitulation alot of us are waiting for. If you are not short the market, it might give you one more chance to short it before the start of the next big show.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
QUOTE (funnymony)
not if your short the market.
Got that right. That's what I've been doing.........but I was referring to the average Joe out there who doesn't have a clue about the markets and is hoping his/her 401K, IRA etc can "just ride it out" OK. I feel for those people. If they just "played it safe" and put $$ in the indexes, they would be down 11.92% YTD on the SP-500 and 18.1% on the NAS-100. I hear a number of financial advisors telling their clients to do just that. Egads, where did they get their education?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Wow
You guys really like it both ways.
Markets goes up we cry "irrational exuberance".
Now it goes down we cry.
You guys really wanted the housing bubble to
continue?
You want the stock market from 2003 to 2007 to
continue its rally?
Another 3 years?
Another 5?
Maybe 20?
Oil high, market down, housing down its tuff for the
middle class?
So I guess 1984 to today was good for the middle
class?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Its pretty amusing. I've been called the blind drunk
permaBull and even I understand what's going on.
(wasn't I the one who was supposed to be crying?)
I wonder if psychiatrists have ever studied irrational
pessimism.
Its pretty funny.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
Well my simplistic view of the situation is that the market wants to make new lows but the fed won't let it.
Since, things really seem bad right now but the fed keeps lower interest rates, I think we will continue to have a sideways market for a while.
If things continue to be bad in the economy after the fed cuts rates to 0 (if this should ever happen) then the dam is really going to break.
If the economy starts showing signs of improvement before the fed's rate reaches 0, then look for a sustained market rally for a continued secular bull market to continue.
In other words, I don't think that a crash of '87's proportions is eminent just yet.
JMHO,
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
cuts rates to 0? didn't they try that in japan?
what new bubble would that create? we already have a commidities bubble, a housing bubble, and an equity bubble. whats left?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"we already have a commidities bubble, a housing bubble, and an equity bubble. whats left?"
----------------------------------------------------------------
A value bubble.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
From what I understand the crux of the problem is the big banks continued unwillingness to lend money and their demanding margin calls thats squeezing most all their clients. This sharp decline in the movement of money plus the housing debacle could cripple the economy. The Fed has a tough job ahead. Voters should be more interested as this is the goose that lays the golden egg.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
A large part of the curent problem may well lie with credit derivatives etc. Last Fall an interesting article was written by Jon Markman " The Credit Crisis Could be Just Beginning". It's a very insightful article focused on Satyajit Das, the world's foremost expert on this issue. Here is the link:
http://www.thestreet.com/s/the-credit-crisis-could-be-just-beginning/newsanalysis/investing/10380613.html?puc=_tscana
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
survivor, Das gives us the whole history. Thanks, laphill
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
You know what the ironic thing is ...
This story was my first post on this board ... on September 25, 2007
It's the 12th post in this thread ...
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=25725
At the time .... the market was nearly at all time highs ...
And skepticism was running high ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
RC, what a difference in Das's credibility 5 months can make.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
I posted this over at telechart-junkies tonight ... and I thought that a few here may find it interesting as well ....
QUOTE ("realitycheck @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:22 pm") Being a bit bored ... and totally unwilling to start doing my taxes ... I decided to crunch some numbers on the "four horsemen" ...
From it's high of $747.24 on 11/07/2007 to it's low of Friday of $426.24 ... GOOG has shown us a 43% retracement ...
From it's high of $202.96 on 12/27/2007 to it's low of Friday of $119.05 ... AAPL has shown us a 42.5% retracement ...
From it's high of $137.01 on 11/07/2007 to it's low of Friday of $94.68 ... RIMM has shown us a 31% retracement ...
Although it is worthy of note that it's recent low of $80.20 on 1/22/2008 constituted a 42.5% retracement ...
From it's high of $101.09 on 10/23/2007 to it's low of Friday of $62.01 ... AMZN has shown us a 39% retracement ...
Although it is worthy of note that it's recent low of $61.20 on 3/3/2008 constituted a 39.5% retracement ...
Does anyone else find it ironic that the "Four Horsemen" signaled the "Apocalypse" ??
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"I posted this over at telechart-junkies tonight "
----------------------------------------------------------------
What is telechart-junkies?
Thanks
diceman
.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (diceman)
What is telechart-junkies?
.
Another board ... dubya dubya dubya dot telechart-junkies dot com
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
Also, Posting charts there is much easier and the clarity is far better too.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
Would not be surprised if todays (3/11) mkt action continues up the remainder of March. S&P500's big jump on the highest volume since January was very impressive, no matter what the cause.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
the market was extremely oversold. the fed is obviously using some technical indicators to time there moves. nonetheless, one day does not make a trend.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (funnymony) the market was extremely oversold. the fed is obviously using some technical indicators to time there moves. nonetheless, one day does not make a trend.
Very insightful funnymony ...
This is a trick that Greenspan learned and implemented in the 90s in an attempt to support the US Dollar ...
After several attempts / concerted efforts by the Fed and central banks around the world to try to stop the dollar's fall while in freefall ...
They came to realize that there efforts were much more effective when they waited until it was at or near a support level ... and then hit it with all that they had ....
What Bernanke has been doing is quite similar ...
He has launched a "War Against Short Sellers" from a bully pulpit ...
He figures if he can hang enough of them out to dry ... enough times ... with his "before the bell on critical day" actions ... then he can stem the tides ...
Hell ... he may be right ...
But ... I doubt if it ultimately changes the "end" ... simply the "rate of change" ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
The FED using TA.
You must be kidding.
I guess one has to find a way to explain anything.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
ahhh, yes. now why would anyone think an agency thats basically throwing the "kitchen sink" trying to bailout wall street firms would be using stock market action to time their moves.
these surprise moves near important supports areas, when the market is very oversold are just a coincidence.
lol!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (diceman) The FED using TA.
You must be kidding.
I guess one has to find a way to explain anything.
Thanks
diceman
Perhaps you're right ....
Maybe we ought to just stick with the old belief that the Fed doesn't worry at all about the stock market ...
All they are concerned with is the economy based on hard economic evidence ...
And why is it again that the FFR has been reduced 225 basis points in less than 6 months ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
I don't think the the Asians are buying the liquidity injection by the Fed, more downside to follow.... The only thing I am pretty sure of is the dollar will continue down.... I'm in FXF right now....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
Jimmy Rogers did a great (and funny) interview with CNBC over Fed actions ...
dudya dubya duby dot cnbc.com/id/23588079 ...
Asked what he would do if he were Bernanke ... Abolish the Fed ... and resign ... ROFL ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
WOW, Jimmy Rogers hit the nail right on the head.....great interview!!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
I wonder how many remember the second half of the qoute which started this thread, who uttered it, and the occasion.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Some thing like Faraguet. (not sure of spelling)
The battle of Mobile Bay (or something similar)
(Civil War)
Not sure of the second part. All I ever heard was
something like "Four bells go ahead full speed ahead"
I guess the bells were a sound command of ship speed.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"these surprise moves near important supports areas, when the market is very oversold are just a coincidence.
lol!"
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Now we know what Greenspan was carrying in that
briefcase. His charts and indicator readings.
These guys are academics that probably don't believe in charting or TA.
What happened yesterday has been discussed for
months and was more global than just the FED.
(hope they are all using the same timeframe)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
how much of a technician would a person have to be to understand a basic breadth ratio, like say when the put/call ratio is giving an extreme reading, or see important areas of support?
TA is used universally. its not considered voodoo by KNOWLEGABLE financial professionals.
sure the fed plans well in advance, and announces the action when they feel market impact will be the greatest. don't see this as any secret.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
I expect that any day now ... just before the markets open ...
Bernanke will walk down to bottom of the steps in front of Fed ... and up to a microphone ...
Where he will announce to world that not ONLY has the largest oil discovery in the history of the world been made just beneath the Federal Reserve building ... but also a vast cave filled with endless supllies of gold, platinum, wheat, corn, etc .... and everybody is going to be able to have all that they want ... totally "free" of course just for the asking ...
And even then .... there will be some that won't be convinced ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/7/2005
Posts: 133
|
QUOTE (realitycheck)
I expect that any day now ... just before the markets open ...
Bernanke will walk down to bottom of the steps in front of Fed ... and up to a microphone ...
Where he will announce to world that not ONLY has the largest oil discovery in the history of the world been made just beneath the Federal Reserve building ... but also a vast cave filled with endless supllies of gold, platinum, wheat, corn, etc .... and everybody is going to be able to have all that they want ... totally "free" of course just for the asking ...
And even then .... there will be some that won't be convinced ...
Whoa back RC, you totally left out Spitzer and his crew, which we all know is what makes the world go 'round 
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
People say that the Fed's move yesterday is very inflationary -- Is it really?
The fed is making loans since the banks won't -- one is just replacing the action of the other.
So wouldn't this be a zero sum scenario as far as adding to inflationary pressures is concerned?
Also, since the economy is failing somewhat currently, why should the stock market follow suit?
Interest rates are way to low for the stock market to be demonstrating bear market behavor -- it should be demonstrating an opposite reaction and I think this is the way Bernake may be viewing things also.
The country can't afford to have both the economy and the stock market going in the tank at the same time -- it should be one or the other.
When you have savings rates as low as they are right now and nonexistent home equities, the stock market should be the respit for people to put their money so that their pocket books won't go in the tank along with the economy.
I'm from the old school which says when interest rates are low, stocks are suppose to grow because other investment vehicles may not be up to par.
Therefore, I must view current stock market conditions as a short term bear in a longer term bull market.
This sort divergence should generally reflect a sideways market for a while, IMO.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
M/P....
The Fed has ... strike that ... the Fed HAD standards for the type and quality of securities that the banks could put up in order to secure these (supposedly) short term loans ...
What they are doing now is tantamount to me writing out an IOU for $200 gazillion dollars ... giving it to the Fed ... and them printing up and handing me $200 gazillion dollars ... knowing good and well that the note that I gave them to collateralize the loan was worth slightly less than a soiled piece of toilet paper ...
They are attempting to convert "worthlessness" into "value" ... and the net effect is that the Fed (read as you & I) will suffer the loss ... as the Fed will take the hit on the worthless notes ... but can't "unprint" the money ... right ?
So ... what happens to the value of all the money that we currently have ... when the Fed dilutes it with a whole lot more ??
Look at it this way ... you own 10% of the stock of the XYZ company ... 10,000 shares ...
The XYZ company decides to print up another 100,000 shares ... doubling their shares outstanding ... and sells it into the market ...
They take all of the money from the sale of these newly issued shares ... and they burn it in the fireplace ...
You now own 5% of the stock in the XYZ company ... and what "value" did you get for this dilution ?
The commodities market understands ...
The inventory report today showed that crude stocks last week increased four times that of estimates ... and still oil went up ...
Why ?
Look at what the USD did ...
That's how much faith the world has in Bernanke's actions ...
Carter was another idiot who tried to avoid the pain of the downcycle at all costs ...
When Paul Volker took over ... he was faced with idiots in control of the government ... and only one weapon at his disposal to end the devastating effects of a catastrophic policy ...
He used it ...
|
|
|
Guest-1 |