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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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This ETF Of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund has lagged behind the US Index Fund ETFs, but after testing it's low Thursday, FXI looks ready to play catchup with the US stock market.
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Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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looks like a potential double bottom. overhead is not far away though.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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If you do not like FXI than UYG might be better for you if you think the Financials still have more to run. Now that the financials are moving this might have about 8 more points to go before there is some real resistents to this one again. Then it would be nice to see this one sell back around 40 or just below there to form a head & shoulders bottom. But I'm getting ahead of myself on this one as I see it moving.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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FXI has rallied back to the top of it's trading range & appears to be ready to turn down & test the bottom of it's trading range again. This could be a good buy under $140 if FXI does not brake through the bottom of the trading range it has been in since the Jan. lows. If you think FXI is going to test it's lows again & want to short this index for a quick swing trade you can buy FXP which will short the index for you.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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Todays action in FXI has it back under it's 25 day moving avg & starting to look like the January low may not hold. If FXI brakes it's January low I think this could trade under $115 before it finds a new bottom. After getting back to their 50 day moving avg, the S & P 500, the DJ-30 & the Russell 2000 have turned down sharply. This appears to be pulling the FXI index down with them. If our markets continue down next week, this should help pull FXI well under it's 200 day moving avg; enough to say the China will be in a bear market with us until it looks like we have it bottom.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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FXI sold to under $140 & covered my short on this index & looking for a rally for one to four days before I get short again if it still looks like this one is going to brake below it's January low the next time down. I like buying FXP when I want to be short the FXI index because I get 2x the leverage. FXI was down about 4% & FXP was up about 8%. I think today was a minor capitulation day for the markets & should give us a few days of a rally attempt before we start down again for a major capitulation day which could lead to rally for a few months before we come back down to test that bottom if we get it. I am looking for the vix index to get over 45 for the next major capitulation day.
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Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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The last time the vix was over 40 was in 2002. Do you really see that big a drop for this bear ?
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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Yes, I believe this bear market will not end until the Basic Material stocks & the Oil & Gas stocks enter the bear market. When this finally happens you should have a race to get out of these stocks that is bigger than we had back in January. This will help get us a vix reading over 40 that we can buy long positions for more than a few days. With T Boone Pickens shorting oil that day maybe coming sooner than alot of spceulators in oil are expecting. When a main player in the oil industry talks you should listen & look for the signs that he is right even if he is a week or two early.
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Joined: 12/7/2004
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I agree T Boone has been spot on calling oil prices, but I think he is shorting into a 10-12% assumed correction and then oil goes back up this summer.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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I do not know how much higher oil & other commodities will go but they are starting to hurt other world market just like us if not more. If you look at some of the other world indexes they look worse then ours. The FTSE-X & the EUR--X have already sold off below they '06 lows and the FDAC-X looks like is is about to brake below it's January lows and maybe start a race with us to their '06 lows. If the Fed had not done that 75 point cut in January our market might have look more like the FTSE-X did back then & it looks like it could still go lower. For now it looks like watching the FTSE-X & the EUR-X could give us an idea as to how low our markets could go if the Fed was not doing the work that it is doing. Hopefully their work will be enough to keep us from going as low as those markets appear to be going or are they adding to the pain by slowing us down, We will have to wait & see how it goes to find out. Is the European way better by letting the markets work most of their problems out themself. I do not think so, but it makes it harder for what the Fed is doing to work if other world countries are not helping out also. When we were raising rate in the last cycle other world countries should have raised their rates more than they did, like China & India.
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Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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As long as the third world is trying to improve their lot in life, commodities will continue going up unless a world depression occurs. I intend to stay saddled to this horse for the time being.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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If commodity prices keep going up from here you just might see a world recession before you know it. The fact that most other world markets are in bear markets too should send up warning signs that something is up. Expect the worse & hope for something better. So; until the market gives us a major capitulation I have to expect every rally we get is doomed to fail unless I buy some commodity instead of stocks.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Dont forget the FXP ETF.
Thanks diceman
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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Your welcome Diceman. No, I did not forget FXP along with ROM, DUG & SMN. QID looks good too instead of ROM if you perfer that instead. The one thing I use from Mad Money is limiting myself to five sectors or indexes at a time to trade. SMN had a nice move Friday as it seems that the Basic Material stocks are building towards a big sell off. MON seems to be one of the leaders in this sector leading the down move; it failed to make a new high on the last rally attempt & appears to be braking down towards it's January lows now. Good luck in protecting your money in this bear market.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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Ops, I put a wrong symbol down on last note, instead of ROM it should have been REW.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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FXI braking out from January low & headed lower on increasing volume. Next week should be interesting once the FED uses one of their last main bullets. Market seems to be about ready for that last major capitulation after the BSC bomb shell today. If we get the capitulation in the next two weeks we need for a good rally; the markets should find a way to rally back to around their 200 day moving averages before turning down again.
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Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (Sir_Gapscan) If we get the capitulation in the next two weeks we need for a good rally; the markets should find a way to rally back to around their 200 day moving averages before turning down again.
And Shanghai and Houng Kong are likely to find their way back to about 3,500 and 18,500 respectively ... which should present an excellent opportunity to play the bounce ...
Although buying into those markets with a deeply oversold USD could present a challenge ...
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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FXI starting to look like it as put in a double bottom with it's Aug. '07 lows. FXI needs to get above 20 day moving avg. & this index could be off to the races again with another good rally for two to three months. Looks like the Fed action & the banks actions have put a bottom in the markets for now & this could be a bull rally in a bigger bear market. For now I think you can look for different indexes & sectors to put your money for now. Look for dips to buy into.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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FXI had a nice little rally but I think it could run out of gas tommorow if oil & other commodities are not ready to go down any further. It might be a good idea to take some profits in the morning until you are sure commodities are going to turn down again.
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Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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Looking at the NDX--X, it looks like it may have finished the 4th wave of a five wave decline yesterday. If this is so, then a fifth wave down in the NDX--X should bottom out some where below 1600. If this does happen it will be the capitulation I am looking for around the middle of next month. If you think we are starting a fifth wave down it would be a good time to sell your longs & either sit on the sidelines until the decline it over or find something you hate to short.
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