Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Just thought I'd start a post for those traders interested in designing systems around their trading method. Apsll has recently brought up a good point that many traders fail because they never devise a system of trading based around their own personality. I would like to add that others flip flop from one system to another and never gain expertise in any or adapt another person's system until it is unrecognizable and unprofitable.
So how about we all design our own and use this forum as a place to whittle down our trading ideas until we have a definable set of rules or criteria that are in line with our different personalities and trading methods?
Instead of working in opposition why not work in harmony to help each other design the best system for each of us.
A few things you will have to cinsider when designing your system:
1. Your equity.
2. Your tolerance for risk.
3. Your favorite price range. Do you like cheap stocks, expensive stocks, etc?
4. Your holding period: what is your prefered holding period?
a. Minutes to hours?
b. Hours to days?
c. Days to weeks?
d. Weeks to months?
5. Your favorite pattern.
a. continuation patterns (trend trading)
b. reversal patterns (contrarian trading)
6. When will you buy? What are your entry criteria? There are many and this should also be in line with your personality. Do you like:
a. Breakouts.
b. Pullbacks
c. Scaling in
7. When will you sell? How will you know when the move is over, or if the trade isn't working?
8. Where will you place your stop? Will you use:
a. A percentage of price
b.. A percentage of total capital
c. Average trading range
d. Hedge your position with options
9. How much of your total equity will you apply to each trade?
10. How much of your total equity will you risk per trade?
These 10 questions take time to answer. One way to answer them is to print charts of your last, say 20 trades or more. Take a look at what has been profitable for you and what has not. Whiich type of entries have worked and which have not.
I thought this would be an interesting idea and forum topic. One that is universal and one that allows for differences.
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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David exelent idea, If you do not mind some extra input then I would also add do you want Technical analysis or fundimental analysis to be more important in your system, also Market condition will play a very large role in what types of systems will work for a given market direction or action. How you manage the trade once you have a position is very important.
I like your idea for thistype of thread David, I hope that you get a lot of responses and guesstions. (I think that you will)..
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I alwayse thought there should be some sort of personality tets for traders somewhere. answering questions to help you discover your own personality, the results of which point you into the direction of various strategy foundations that are likely not to grate to much against your inner nature. The problem with just asking what your nature is, is that we all have (imo) who we are and who we wish we were, so it's easy cheat your self. saying I can stand a hi-flying system, when in actuality you can't... but you want the money they produce.. when they produce it. Some sort of round about questions like "walking through the desert you see a turtle on it's back.. what do you do" sort of thing..
I of course.. would stand and start trying to decide what to do. Because you see, the samaritin in me wants to flip it back over.. but I also know that some turtles engage in these battles and flip each other for territory or breeding rights... so by flipping it back, im intervening in natural selection's divine process... Next I know I fainted from dehydration. Ihave a tendancy to over think things.
but the self examined life is not worth living, know your self and all that. blah blah.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Good suggestions Apsll,
I agree that not everyone is a technical trader.
They will also want to note the significance that news will play or if they will take economic data into consideration.
I am trying to figure out which 3-5 of those questions are the simplest to answer so as not to intimidate people or to give a clearer direction. How about:
I'll have my answers later today or tonight.
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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I agree with you completely Scott. I am currently rereading the time honeored classic Psycho Cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz and he dicusses the importance of self image in relation to success.
When it comes to these questions I think it's important to be honest with who you are, but not to limit yourself to this area because growth is important.
For instance, if you are profitable at day trades but want to become a longer term trader what would you have to do and are you willing to do it? The main goal here is to narrow down a particular style of trading that best suits you and to build a methodology around it that you will enjoy trading.
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 240
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Looks interesting, my main thought would be, keep it simple? well trained judgement is important.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Actually my wife gave me the name of a guy that has already done this work on psychological profiling for personality exams. Meyers Briggs aparently can be gogled and is "superb". Having a PHD in the house can be handy some times. I'll be checking it out later myself but I'm freezing right now so i'll go through my nightly routiene and see what comes up for tomorrow.
David did you get the email by tradeguider on AAPL ? interesting you tube bit there on the shrinking of folume AFTER the flush on a High Volume down day att he end of a down run ...
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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I agree jimstacy,
Most of the profitable systems I've created have been by qualifying the price movement and direction I like and taking entries I'm comfortable with with a clear profit target in mind.
But, I must admit, that I have fallen prey to creating one too many systems which can be just as adictive and troublesome as overtrading.
When I first began looking at systems I was convinced there was one grand system that defined the one successful way to trade and that once you found it you were set. Like many traders, I thought that stocks only moved 1 of 3 ways -- up/down/ or sideways. Well, once you add in the different time frames, all the decisions you can make during the moves across any of these time frames and throw in the piles of indicators and the interplay of emotions i realized that it would one system one profitable way to trade is a pipedream. But that's also the answer as well. i don't have to worry about what someone else is doing. i also don't have to look outside of myself to discover the best trading system. Once I have learned the fundamentals of technical analysis (pun intended) i can devise a methodology that works for me. As long as the equity curve is moving up all is good.
But once again, I agree. the simpler your criteria the better the chance you will find trades and be able to trade them once you do.
Scott,
Thanks for that name. I will be googling him myself!
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Just thought I'd start a post for those traders interested in designing systems around their trading method. Apsll has recently brought up a good point that many traders fail because they never devise a system of trading based around their own personality. I would like to add that others flip flop from one system to another and never gain expertise in any or adapt another person's system until it is unrecognizable and unprofitable.
So how about we all design our own and use this forum as a place to whittle down our trading ideas until we have a definable set of rules or criteria that are in line with our different personalities and trading methods?
Instead of working in opposition why not work in harmony to help each other design the best system for each of us.
A few things you will have to cinsider when designing your system:
1. Your equity.
2. Your tolerance for risk.
3. Your favorite price range. Do you like cheap stocks, expensive stocks, etc?
4. Your holding period: what is your prefered holding period?
a. Minutes to hours?
b. Hours to days?
c. Days to weeks?
d. Weeks to months?
5. Your favorite pattern.
a. continuation patterns (trend trading)
b. reversal patterns (contrarian trading)
6. When will you buy? What are your entry criteria? There are many and this should also be in line with your personality. Do you like:
a. Breakouts.
b. Pullbacks
c. Scaling in
7. When will you sell? How will you know when the move is over, or if the trade isn't working?
8. Where will you place your stop? Will you use:
a. A percentage of price
b.. A percentage of total capital
c. Average trading range
d. Hedge your position with options
9. How much of your total equity will you apply to each trade?
10. How much of your total equity will you risk per trade?
These 10 questions take time to answer. One way to answer them is to print charts of your last, say 20 trades or more. Take a look at what has been profitable for you and what has not. Whiich type of entries have worked and which have not.
I should say the following, because it seems we are running here a kidden garden program.
I always assumed that the folks who came here already had gone throught the process that you mentioned above. Most definatelly I always assumed that the individuals here already had this out of the way.
In any case, this is an individual process, and not a group collaborative process. Each individual has to find his/her niche.
I know you all want to play house, but come on.
When it comes to these questions I think it's important to be honest with who you are, but not to limit yourself to this area because growth is important.
For instance, if you are profitable at day trades but want to become a longer term trader what would you have to do and are you willing to do it
In regards to the issue of psychology I thought I mentioned long time ago that it is an issue of ACCEPTANCE. That is all. When you master that you will make money.
Now if a trader is making money daytrading. Why would he/she want to change that to become a long time investor? That is what you should be asking.
The amount of risk in the markets is directly proportional to the amount of time you are in the markets.
The shorter time trader is exposed to much less risk (not to mention overnight changes).
Unless you like to protect yourself with options, the long time frame investor is like a candle in the wind. What do you think is going to happen?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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BigBlock;
It's spelled "kindergarten".
Oh, and "group collaborative" is redundant.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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BigBlock,
Thank you for your highly constructive and elaborate contribution. Your insights into the world of psychology mirror your insights into the world of ettiquete. I am a calm, understanding person by nature, but your pompus misspelled ramblings are wearing on my nerves. There are certainly a large number of traders who visit this forum that are beginning their journey into technical analysis here. How sad they must be confronted with your appalling disregard for manners and your grade school bullying.
The process of understanding one's trading and style of trading can be a collaborative effort if you are the type of person who enjoys collaboration. As you clearly are not that type of person, please go sit by yourself in that dark corner of a thing you call a mind. I cannot and will not tolerate your childish outbursts in a forum that was created in an effort to return this forum to its former peaceful existance.
Learning to trade correctly has everything to do with managing your emotions or have you also a complete disregard for the master traders of our time who have said as much? Many begining traders are unaware of this fact and build their systems around strategies that don't fit their personalities.
As for you unintelligable yammering, save it for the endless mazes of your own macro economic doomsday posts. Wow. If ever I have trouble sleeping they are the first place I go.
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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David, Bigblock is a troll. Don't respond to him and he will go away.
As for your post, I think it lays out a nice framework for someone to begin to design a system and a trading plan to fit himself (or herself). Not sure were I would start the discussion though. Good luck.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Gentlemen:
Please refer to the post of APSLL, dated today, "Lets Work Together to fix this Forum"
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Here are some comments I made once before which, I believe, allude to the subject suggested here:
"I submit that, because there are so many different styles of trading, different programs if you will, one must have clearly defined goals for one's trading.
Are you trading for income? Are you trading for retirement? Growth?
Are you going long only? Or are you willing to short stocks? Do you want one or two big kills? Or are you willing to accept frequent 7-10% moves (or even 1-2% moves) and compound your profits?
Do you want to trade by sector? News reports? Fundamentals? And on and on the questions could go.
Forgive the long-windedness, my point is this, the markets are changing all the time and without a clear plan you can become easily confused about whether to be in a trade or out of it, cash or leveraged, etc., etc.
A set of goals, clearly defined, in writing and reviewed frequently, will help alleviate what I have seen so often remarked on in this forum, and that is a lack of discipline about one's trading style. Most traders on this forum are quite proficient but we all succumb to a sort of trading seizure that makes us ask, "Why did I make that decision? I knew better than that."
I have a trading journal in which I have written out every step of my personal trading style and procedure. When I review it several times a month, I tend to follow it with more discipline; and when I follow it with more discipline, I always trade with great success. When I don't review it, I get confused (although I don't realize it at the time) and my trading goes downhill.
Sorry for the long post, wasn't sure how else to express myself on this one."
Let me reiterate the "in writing" part. This is more important than many realize. It is time consuming and tedious, hence, often conveniently overlooked. But it cannot be overstated that writing something forces us to think something through far more than we typically will without writing.
Try this exercise, pretend you are writing a letter to a loved one explaining your last trade and why you entered and why you chose to exit. Explain, in detail, what you were looking for and how you came across the particular stock that you did. Then explain how they can do just what you did.
The key point: if you can't put it in writing, you don't understand it.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
In regards to the issue of psychology I thought I mentioned long time ago that it is an issue of ACCEPTANCE. That is all. When you master that you will make money.
Now if a trader is making money daytrading. Why would he/she want to change that to become a long time investor? That is what you should be asking.
The amount of risk in the markets is directly proportional to the amount of time you are in the markets.
The shorter time trader is exposed to much less risk (not to mention overnight changes).
Unless you like to protect yourself with options, the long time frame investor is like a candle in the wind. What do you think is going to happen?
big block .. not all of us comit your every word to memory. However why would a person want to be come a long term investor? Most "Pros", and I don't mean the corner broker, agree that the BIG money is in investing and long term maturity of a held position. I'm talking about people like Dennis Richards, Larry Williams, Warren Buffet Etc Etc..
However, why would a person want to become a different sort of trader than they are currently when what they have works for them?
1) self exploration.. they may find they like it better. I for one prefer not to day trade ... I prefer to submit my orders and go do something else for the day... but the semi day trading is what is making me the money right now. Longer strategies have more often than not blown up in my face of late. That was not the case for the bulk of 2006, and 2005.
2) Current market condition.... there are times when various strategies are better.
3) for enjoyment.... the bulk of the big money will be in longer holdings but it can be fun for some traders to dabble with shorter strategies.
4) working towards developing yourself into a well rounded trader... dealing with multiple strategies (with in reason) or time frames can only help to increase your ability to read price in general.
5) A change in the persons time available, capital available or a change in their thinking, any one of the above mentioned questions as a factor can change.
the reasons a person might want to explore other timeframes or strategies are endless IMO. And irrelevant as I think of it.. the fact is they do . .this discussion is centered on the "Next Step".
As far as a persons risk being porportionately related to the time exposed to the market? That is an interesting debate and quite debateable. I think in CERTAIN markets it's true.. and for certain personality types it's true. But again the PROS generaly all agree that the big money is in the big moves over time. That despite the occasional price shock or bad pick (which could be a seperate issue) there is definately more money to be made from accumulating a stock for longer holds than trading it short term. Even if you trade the same stock everyday of a major swing ... your comissions will eat proffits that would have been kept from capitalizing on the swing as a whole .. single transaction.
MOST Daytraders fail...with rare exception. Not being a day trader I can only speculate on the reasons... but I'd say firstly lack of practice and understanding of price and technicals, 2ndly lack of emotional control. 3rd Possibly over exposure to information (media news etc). They probably develop, despite computer testing, a slight negative edge if not a serrious negative expectation. "Day trading" is the hardest of the Trading approaches... according again to "PROS" and from what little of it i've done i'd have to agree. It was much easier to make my picks the night before or week before .. place my orders and go of to work and come home to an average match of my weekly sallary than it is to sit here and trade a stock evey day ... debating wether this is going to be a good day to trade etc etc debating if this is a good place to take the proffits or if it should be allowed to have some space for another hour etc. Being up by a several thousand dollars and coming back from the "John" to find it all gone.
I have a real respect for those that can do it consistantly and choose day trading as their main mode of investing. That takes real intestinal fortitude. But it's only a different type of intestinal fortitude compared tot he guy who has the ability to buy AAPL in Jan of 04 and continue to buy and hold it periodicaly for the next several years. Those dips and valleys unfolding at the right edge would be scary for me ... and depending on the number of shares you have the equity swings could be unnerving for someone better suited to short term trading. But the FACT is as a stock trader you can't beat "Buy AAPL Jan 04 and Sell 3 days ago" However try to day trade that and I bet MOST people will have dismal results by comparison.
so while there are times when I sympathise with the idea that risk exposure is directly related to the amount of time exposed to the market ... Some pretty bright minds have proven the reverse is actualy true... despite how it may feel going the road day by day. So untill you become the next CEO of Berkshire Hathoway or an equilivant company it's gonna be a hard sell for me. As short as my average time frame is.. the biggest gains I've ever had also came from my longest holds.. which were cut terribly short when reviewing them at the end of the year.
But I LIKE short term trading, I also recognize that my longer term stuff will outperform it over time ... provided it try to time it with the market... so I intend to do both.
Wow that was long.. sorry guys. Also I personaly don't care if Bigblock is part of any particular post or not .. so long as it dosent degrade into what it has in the past so I responded to this post with my own intelectual thoughts.. however dim they may be. But Statements that are flat and lead one, possibly a new trader, to think DayTrading is the safest form of trading IMO need to be rebutted.
I'm thinking of tomorrow outlining my two main philosophies/strategies and answering these questions publicly... unless that is overkill. Most of you have seen the Crux of what I trade anyway.... Bit I think it could be interesting to see how it fits with these questions. Many of which I have answered for my self.. some I have not.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Well I thought I'd go through this and outline my systems: should be fun.
1. Your equity.
45K and growing
2. Your tolerance for risk.
Not the greatest...I definately need work there... I get cranky over greater then $200 loss.
3. Your favorite price range. Do you like cheap stocks, expensive stocks, etc?
I like stocks from about $8 to $70... beyond that I start to get antsy over the price swings. Below that and I get bored withteh price swings.. and it seems that when I buy a ton to compensate is when the cheap stock starts to make bigger swings..which is great when it's not against me.
4. Your holding period: what is your prefered holding period?
this depends on market conditions and my ability to controll my emotions and be available to watch the stocks. My prefered time is about 10 days or less .. but I intend to take more trades in the 2-3 months range after we start showing signs of a bottom. lately most of my trades have been in the "Minuites to days" catagories. If i'm in a stock and I feel we've gotten greater than the average range rather quickly i'll go ahead and take it ... so for me this means entering off lower range days and when I get a good day over 1.50 -1.75 I start watching to take it. that is in terms of price movement NOT what it brought me.. If I didn't get the greatest fill but price ran 2 points and is looking ripe for proffit taking i'll take it.. but my entry may have only netted be .75 per share. I don't like doing this.. but lately that is how my equity seems to be growing.
5. Your favorite pattern.
This depends on situation .. i'm not a classical pattern trader but I liek Dragons, engulfing, white clouds etc etc and their inverses. My favorite patterns are my own and involve "clusters" that include a context for price. C < C8 AND L > AVGL3 AND (H - L) < (H1 - L1) AND (H - L) < (H2 - L2) AND (H - L) < (H3 - L3) AND C < AVGH3 AND TSV18 > TSV18.5
is a pattern that I like... the general concepts are inspired by a combination of Larry connors and Tradeguider I call it "My low range day"... and ocasionaly check for this pattern in my watchlists. It's not a speciffic pattern but more a price movement concept. I have others.. but realy I use keep an open mind while i'm looking through scans and consider the concepts that make sense to me and are the backbone of this pattern and others I have.
a. continuation patterns (trend trading)
When I ues continuation patterns I ten to use intra day candle clusters for piggybacking orders. in this market.. in a better market it's different but I like flaggs pennants and the same candles as above .. all must fall into a certain context.
b. reversal patterns (contrarian trading)
I do allot of this. 15 out of 50 some odd trades this month are short.. that means that in a falling market I traded allot of long picks. At current my current ratio is 34 wins to 24 losses.
6. When will you buy? What are your entry criteria? There are many and this should also be in line with your personality. Do you like:
For going long I require that my entry be with in a context of the HNC,Diceman...for original entry additional orders can come Either on a daily basis as price crosses above the previosu days high, as I buy more of what is going up and tighten stops on what is gong down. In this market my hold times are so short that I need to do this intra day or daily. But generaly I view any price slip back to a space near the 20 or preferably between the 20 and 50 EMA as an aditional buy oportunity over the intermediate term.
a. Breakouts.
I play some of these... but only with fundamentals also.. which I hate doing. also I only intend to play breakouts in a bottoming market or uptrends. Just helps with the odds. I play them with GTC orders places slightly above the consolidation high.. which puts me right inthe sights of the "turtle soup" traders.... so I dont' care for breakouts that much.. I prefer to find the consolidations and buy the returns to the lower range and hope for a breakout.. if price looks weak at the return tothe top range i'll take it .... if it does breakout I can alwayse buy the pullback.
b. Pullbacks
I like this very much.. but my rules for scaleing in aren't chisseled into stone..
c. Scaling in
depending on my hold time i'll scale in very quickly, sometimes scale down If I'm realy confidant about the trade... with in parameters.
7. When will you sell? How will you know when the move is over, or if the trade isn't working?
this is a tricky question.. in the current market I tend to sell quickly probably to early.. but a tad early or a tad late is the same net result and picking hte exact top is almost impossible. I'll go for a tad early as I can rebuy later if I want... but then i've got my money safe. I tend to take out of the ordinary price swings and I tend to take them intra day with limit orders. however in markets and times when I cant sit there .. when I get clost to my target OR i get that huge day that gives me the gains I thought would take longer I'll place a limit order near the high of the day. for longer holds i'll trail a stop loss and let that take me out naturaly. If I get in and price goes no where and indicators weaken I tend to exit any way out of boredom and "preservation". If I didn't get what I expected then somethign is wrong and logically something else may occour. I have held through longer consolidations.. but agiain only on stocks where I had a feeling for them frome watchign for a while and had checked out fundamentals. Normaly i'll exit and resubmit an order for the consolidation breakout on a small scale or try to pick it up again a few weeks later near a consolidation low.
8. Where will you place your stop? Will you use:
some forme of support. this market is either the analysis day candle low minus a tad or the previous days low. if its a little consolidation i'll use the consolidation low. For stocks that are on the move and have already gained more than 1 point onthe day I find them and I decide to go ahead withthe order I ues an intraday support level.. or calculate the lowest swing of the day and place it that far away minus a tad.
a. A percentage of price
b.. A percentage of total capital
c. Average trading range
d. Hedge your position with options
Not yet but I intend to trade them as trades eventually.. not often.
9. How much of your total equity will you apply to each trade?
Depending on market conditions, trades taken and my recent performance. the max on any one purchase is 2% with a total max of 5% in acumulated positions in the same holding. for counter trend trades I cut it to 1% or less or when I've had a loosing streak I may cut it further.. recently I was trading nno more than .75%. However as the marekt got so over sold I bumped up my counter trend trades to 1.5 % But in general I shoot for 2%. I figure though that If I hit a loosing streak that has a total 5% effect on my capital market conditions may be changing or my strategy is having a performance dip and i'll cut it back... as soon as I feel it's ok I go back to the full 2% initial entry. I envision a time when all entries are 2% reguardless because trying to improve the performance of some systems in thsi way can cause you to actually cut it's performance further.
10. How much of your total equity will you risk per trade?
In total postions I try to keep them around 7 or less.. i'll go more in a hot market and I'm not afraid to get into margine for quick trades. but i'd rather buymore of stocks that are workign for me than own 20 different things. Just easier to keep tabs on.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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My short strategy I use right now.. could probably use a bit of refining. but here it is. I Plot a 20, 35 and 50 EMA on price chart. I use traditional trend lines and the moving averages to confirm changes of trend. For the system a Down trend is any time the 20 < 50 EMA. This is not a hard and fast rule and some intuition is needed...as the crosses can be a simple correction.
I then look for price to have been below the 20 and have rallied to the space between the 20 and 50 or just really near the 20 and start to weaken. I Use TSV 18 crossing down through it's upper bolinger band as an alert.. and will begin to look for a price based entry in that context. SNDA is the chart below. I shorted this today and got out at the point of 2 points movement to the down side and shortly price bounced.. may still weaken and Imay re-enter it tomorrow. but I made good money on it today so I'm happy. however this is not the norm that my entry is on the next day of finding the chart. it can be several days later but I enter the order or watch price if I think there could still be more upside and wait for the order to be triggered by fallign prices... I may need to adjust the order if price continues to run up.. or cancel it.
the strategy could use a few filters because it often generate allot of hits.. so I sort by price % change today and look at the lowest first and soem of the largest and made decisions from there using basic chart reading skills.
See chart below.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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The scan I developed to find these is
All stocks
3 Ma Dn trnd true
(xavgc20 < xavgc35 and xavgc35 < xavgc 50)
Wiliams % R set to rank 57 -94
(STOC10 - 100)
TSV x Dn upper bolinger band true. this is a big formula
XAVG(TSV,18) < XAVG(TSV13,18) + 1.3 * SQR(ABS(XAVG(TSV,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.1,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.2,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.3,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.4,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.5,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.6,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.7,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.8,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.9,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.10,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.11,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.12,18) ^ 2 - 13 * XAVG(TSV13,18) ^ 2) / 12) AND XAVG(TSV1.1,18) >= XAVG(TSV13.1,18) + 1.3 * SQR(ABS(XAVG(TSV1.1,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.2,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.3,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.4,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.5,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.6,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.7,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.8,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.9,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.10,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.11,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.12,18) ^ 2 + XAVG(TSV1.13,18) ^ 2 - 13 * XAVG(TSV13.1,18) ^ 2) / 12)
Volume greatehr than 100,000 for the last 20 days true
AVGV20 > 1000
volume over 30,000 true
V > 3000
H > C10 true that is the formula
Price per share 6.00 to max.
I could probably filter it further as last night it generated over 80 picks. I liked SIGM, SNDA, DDK and AKAM with out looking at all of them .. then I resorted by price percent change for the biger % movers and CAL SSW AIV I liked along with others. I'd like any filter that would cut down the number I look at with out cutting donw the quality of charts I look at. But obviously i'd like to cut only the less likely candidates... however that is defined
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Scott I thought your didn't short! what happened to the bouncing strategy?
I am glad you listened.
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The process of understanding one's trading and style of trading can be a collaborative effort if you are the type of person who enjoys collaboration. As you clearly are not that type of person, please go sit by yourself in that dark corner of a thing you call a mind. I cannot and will not tolerate your childish outbursts in a forum that was created in an effort to return this forum to its former peaceful existance.
Learning to trade correctly has everything to do with managing your emotions or have you also a complete disregard for the master traders of our time who have said as much? Many begining traders are unaware of this fact and build their systems around strategies that don't fit their personalities
Well I continue to disagree. Trading is a loner's game first of all. It is not any cooperative activity I know off. You can enjoy cooperating all you want - that is not going to make you a better trader. At the end when you rcash is on the line - your greed and fear will be at play. That is YOUR emotions and not the neighbor's.
To learn to manage your emotions you first have to know yourselve. That has always been my first requirement - ACCEPTANCE.
Then you control your emotions - YOUR ARE THE MARKET.
You can do all the collaboration you want -- it is like paper trading. At the end, when the trade is in - YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN. If you didn't do the homework yourself - YOU WILL BE LOST.
If you still like collaboration I suggest that you collaborate it may be good for the soul. As for the pocket, it may be different.
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Golfman I see you are a man of hope. Hope is not the quality of a trader.
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A set of goals, clearly defined, in writing and reviewed frequently, will help alleviate what I have seen so often remarked on in this forum, and that is a lack of discipline about one's trading style. Most traders on this forum are quite proficient but we all succumb to a sort of trading seizure that makes us ask, "Why did I make that decision? I knew better than that."
Trading is a game of probabilities, not a game of rules. It is a game. Discipline doesn't make for acceptance. Mostly when you are in the wrong side of the trade.
You can write all you want - there is a whole industry based just on that. At the end you soul decides.
Perhaps ink would be at better use if you wrote about yourself just half of the time of what you spend writing about your trades. And of course spend the other half of the time understandig what you just wrote.
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big block .. not all of us comit your every word to memory. However why would a person want to be come a long term investor? Most "Pros", and I don't mean the corner broker, agree that the BIG money is in investing and long term maturity of a held position.
Something wrong with this??? Scott I think you would benefit first from some mathematics, and second from I wake up "Pros" call.
You make more money in the long term??? Even if that was the case, it would be easy to see that you would exponentially increase your profits by just taking long positions in every retracement of that uptrend and selling near top. Well I am sure you know how to trade an uptrend.
And that would be just half the game, since we are not mentioning any profits to be made on the short side.
Fluctuations are your friends.
The bread and butter of the "Pros" is to tell you different. Once they take your cash, and get their commision their work is done. And after the broker facilitates that cash to the institution everyone is in busines, but you. You don't think Institutions make money out of thin air - do you??
They make money with your money. Whether you make money or not is not really their concern. They concern is to convince you to leave your money there as long as possible - so they can continue to make money.
I wonder what the folks holding any of the 30 Dow component from 2000 to now would say to you Scott.
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Trading is a loner's game first of all. It is not any cooperative activity I know off. You can enjoy cooperating all you want - that is not going to make you a better trader. At the end when you rcash is on the line - your greed and fear will be at play. That is YOUR emotions and not the neighbor's.
To learn to manage your emotions you first have to know yourselve. That has always been my first requirement - ACCEPTANCE.
Then you control your emotions - YOUR ARE THE MARKET.
You can do all the collaboration you want -- it is like paper trading. At the end, when the trade is in - YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN. If you didn't do the homework yourself - YOU WILL BE LOST.
BigBlock makes some good points here. When it comes time to click on Transmit and send that order, it's you and you alone.
Where I think BigBlock is missing the point is that no one learns on their own. And that's where collaboration can be of real value. You must trade alone, but no one learns that way.
Trading is a game of probabilities, not a game of rules. It is a game.
So, no rules, huh? BigBlock, do you arbitrarily keep making trades and count on probabilities to make you profitable. Or are there some criteria that you observe and follow? (Could be read "Rules").
Discipline doesn't make for acceptance. Mostly when you are in the wrong side of the trade.
Well, there's where you're wrong, and short-sighted. Not only are you incorrect in that you have not hit the mark of the truth; you are diametrically opposed to what is correct. You cannot accept yourself without discipline. That's the whole point.
You can write all you want -
Well, thanks, don't mind if I do.
there is a whole industry based just on that.
Huh? I don't get it.
At the end you soul decides.
Sorry, don't get that one either. I decide things with my mind. The soul is, typically, accepted to be the seat of the emotions.
Perhaps ink would be at better use if you wrote about yourself just half of the time of what you spend writing about your trades. And of course spend the other half of the time understandig what you just wrote.
I'll need to spend 5/4's of the time of you spending 1/2 of the full time that you don't spend trying to write something that didn't make 2/3 of the sense that most people can't even understand when your sentences are 1 1/3 longer than most of the time when you ought to be writing something I wish I could understand but get lost 6 7/8 of the way through.
Whenever you want to write that sentence in a way that I can understand, I'd be more than happy to reply.
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QUOTE (BigBlock) Scott I thought your didn't short! what happened to the bouncing strategy?
I am glad you listened.
I never said I didn't short.. I said i'm not as practiced as going long.. and at the moment bounce oportunities were availing them selves and looking more apealing than going short. I'm totally fine with shorting and counter trend trading... I accept that the latter is higher risk in a down market or shorting is higher risk in a rising market. Actually in 2006 I pulled of some heroic trades in HOC where I called the turn like three times in a row buying catchign a swing .. sitting out two days and shorting for the down swing and then catchign the up swing.. I havnn't been able to do that since.. and haven't really tried.
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QUOTE (BigBlock) big block .. not all of us comit your every word to memory. However why would a person want to be come a long term investor? Most "Pros", and I don't mean the corner broker, agree that the BIG money is in investing and long term maturity of a held position.
Something wrong with this??? Scott I think you would benefit first from some mathematics, and second from I wake up "Pros" call.
You make more money in the long term??? Even if that was the case, it would be easy to see that you would exponentially increase your profits by just taking long positions in every retracement of that uptrend and selling near top. Well I am sure you know how to trade an uptrend.
And that would be just half the game, since we are not mentioning any profits to be made on the short side.
Fluctuations are your friends.
The bread and butter of the "Pros" is to tell you different. Once they take your cash, and get their commision their work is done. And after the broker facilitates that cash to the institution everyone is in busines, but you. You don't think Institutions make money out of thin air - do you??
They make money with your money. Whether you make money or not is not really their concern. They concern is to convince you to leave your money there as long as possible - so they can continue to make money.
I wonder what the folks holding any of the 30 Dow component from 2000 to now would say to you Scott.
I think I outlined my position pretty clearly above... I never said that I could pick a bottom or a top perfectly .. and I doubt that you can. that is not meant as a jab.. just a bit of reality. sometimes we do it some times we are a bit off.
I also clearly said "NOT the corner broker.. I fully understand that they are out for comissions and all that. However I know someone who made MILLIONS with long term investing through a regular broker/Money manager. The "Pros" i'm talking about are other Traders and investors. I also said clearly what you would have to to do convince me other wise. I never said that there were not super proffitabel day traders... I said they were few and far between.
i also never said I had the strongest math skills .. but I do have eyeballs. I have not traded anything long term yet becasue i'm a little to wraped up in the short term. I also said I know your argument about the time/risk exposure and i have a sense of the Math of both sides of the argument. I agree that it feels like less risk to be out by the end of the day.. but MOST day traders will get faked out by the daily noise and take losses where there would be none in a longer hold. I also said that there is a time and a place for longer holds and now is probably not it.
I didn't get into "Shorting" in the discussion because most "Investors" don't or can't short for one reason or another.
Finaly i don't think I came across agressive or insulting in any way.. I simply debated your stance on the math/logic of Time = Risk exposure. don't forget i'm a short term trader also. I look at a long run and imediately my mind breaks it into smaller swings and entry zones looking to sidestep the drawdowns and flat periods.
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Also I think it's a really bad idea to the 30 dow components component for that time.. but there are people who accept that and go for dividends and splits... which I personaly think are a rat race and a mixed bag... but it works for them in the long run
i'm shure some of them did perform well.
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Something wrong with this??? Scott I think you would benefit first from some mathematics, and second from I wake up "Pros" call.
.
explain the math to me that proves day trading is more proffitable by and large than long term investing, you wan't to participate.. help etc etc.. help me understand that.
I once asked you why you come here if you have such a powerful system and you gave me lecture on money not being the only thing in life and helpoing others etc etc. help me understand that conclusively.
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Trading is a loner's game first of all. It is not any cooperative activity I know off. You can enjoy cooperating all you want - that is not going to make you a better trader. At the end when you rcash is on the line - your greed and fear will be at play. That is YOUR emotions and not the neighbor's.
To learn to manage your emotions you first have to know yourselve. That has always been my first requirement - ACCEPTANCE.
Then you control your emotions - YOUR ARE THE MARKET.
You can do all the collaboration you want -- it is like paper trading. At the end, when the trade is in - YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN. If you didn't do the homework yourself - YOU WILL BE LOST.
BigBlock makes some good points here. When it comes time to click on Transmit and send that order, it's you and you alone.
Where I think BigBlock is missing the point is that no one learns on their own. And that's where collaboration can be of real value. You must trade alone, but no one learns that way.
Well I guess that we are going to continue to atack each other, instead of attacking and debating the matter. With that in mind I will tell you what Tobydad
First of all, who are you to speak in behalf of other traders. Collaboration may be of use to you althought I do not believe it fits the purpose, but who are you to say that noone learns on its own. I say give me a book and I will tell you if I learn. In fact I have learned more from books on my own, than I will ever learn from your "collaboration". I used to run into all kind of souls in collage that wanted to do collaborations - what they really wanted was a copy of the homework. Is that what you want?
I haven't given any answer to the homework in a long time - since I figured out those suckers. You want answers - do your work.
Trading is a game of probabilities, not a game of rules. It is a game.
So, no rules, huh? BigBlock, do you arbitrarily keep making trades and count on probabilities to make you profitable. Or are there some criteria that you observe and follow? (Could be read "Rules").
I never said there are no rules. What I said is that counting your probabilities is more important than counting your rules. Observations are not rules. Yes I have some rules as closing my trades always at the end of the session, and never give the market back more than half what the market gave me.
If most of my energy was put to enforce the rules instead of finding trades with good probability I would never make any money.
Discipline doesn't make for acceptance. Mostly when you are in the wrong side of the trade.
Well, there's where you're wrong, and short-sighted. Not only are you incorrect in that you have not hit the mark of the truth; you are diametrically opposed to what is correct. You cannot accept yourself without discipline. That's the whole point.
No, no that is where you are wrong Tobydad. Discipline and acceptance are two different things. Per example accepting you are not cut to trade can save you a ton of money and has nothing to do with discipline.
On the other hand by not accepting that you are not cut to trade will get you in trouble no matter how much discipline you think you have.
there is a whole industry based just on that.
Huh? I don't get it.
Well since you are so smart I don't understand how it is you don't get that. If you continue to not understand - come back and let me know I will explain.
At the end you soul decides.
Sorry, don't get that one either. I decide things with my mind. The soul is, typically, accepted to be the seat of the emotions.
Are you telling me that there no emotions involved in trading? No wondefs you are lost.
I am affraid that you are doing a disservice to yourselve and other by telling such a lie to yourselve and to the rest. If some idiot told you that you can trade without emotions, that poor soul is as idiot as the one who cared to listen to him / her.
Tobydad here is a (a + b i ) sentence in plain english for you to understand, and if you don't you need to recoupe at least |Z| where Z = r (cos (theta) + i sin (theta) of your brain cells - that is a complex. I am afraid you are losing some of your Basal Ganglia.
Sorry if you can understand my sentences you sometimes need to read in between the lines - fellow.
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Golfman I see you are a man of hope. Hope is not the quality of a trader.
You're still a troll. Don't go away mad, just go away. Nobody cares about your BS anyway.
Sorry guys, I generally don't comment like this and try to be helpful, but enough is enough. This topic was supposed to be about colaborating about trading systems. We must ingnore his nonsense. Scott, you too -- please.
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Golfma since that is clearly directed to me - I will say the same to you fellow.
Noone cares about your BS. Don't go mad - stick around for one more round.
I am collaborating. Or is your collaboration the one you want to hear?
I also was trying to be helpful by cutting the chatter and going down to the point as I see it. Obviously that is to abrupt for you.
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you bet.. I was open to some discussion and debate.. but there is none of that.. this is a predatory relationship here.
Ungh .. oh well.
we'll have to read between the posts.
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Ok Scott since this would be long to explain in words, I have takent the time photocopy a book to bring you a picture. Hopefully it will be clear enough for you.
(copyrighted material posted without permission removed by Moderator)
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BigBlock;
I have always avoided responding to you or discussing anything that you've said. I do not understand your need to be belligerent. Even in the statement in which I attempted to credit you with a very good insight (and, indeed, it was a very good insight, sir), you assayed that I was attacking you.
In most of the rest of my comments, I was making more attempt at having fun and being light-hearted but, sadly, you seem incapable of grasping this.
Why do you appear so angry? I don't understand.
But please be aware of this, respond if you wish; better yet, ignore this post altogether. I've always been happy to ignore your rantings; I am returning to that wisdom.
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Tobydad, I guess it is difficult to tell the tone while communicating over text.
I am not angry, but I am a little edgy over the fact that it seems everyone seems to point their finger at me here.
I may have difference of opinions on many things, but that shouldn't be taken as threatening.
It seems most folks around here take it that way, and so when I read messages I suppose in my mind the responses resonate in that fashion.
I appreciate you asking about it. Until now noone had. May be this is a step in understanding, and perhaps correcting the whole situation.
Believe it or not I try to help more than not, although as someone may have said - my thoughts some time get lost in the text.
I will try to correct my belligerent tone if you guys can do the same for me.
Take care.
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Poor David has had to sit by and watch his good intentions for a fine thread get stomped on and destroyed by our beloved resident and lets not forget helpfull stock market expert Bigblock, Stand up and take a bow bigblock, you have earned it. How many threads have you been a part of getting locked now? mmm to many to count I think. I am sure that it will not be long until we see the all to familiar pad lock on this one as well......
Bigblock why not let us collaborate in peace, does this bother you? Ever since I have come to this forum Collaboration has been at the heart of my learning curve. I have become a better trader and made money more efficiently in the last two years that I have been a part of this forum and using Telachart. Of course we all know that you think that I am lying about my success, so this post does not really require a response from such an intelegent sceptic.
If it is clear as you have already stated that most here do not appreciate your pearls of wisdome, then why force feed us? Would not your time be better spent helping those that actually want it. The only thing that you state that makes any sense is that yes we do trade alone, but the experience of doing so can be richer and more fun when you are sharing your strategies and success stories with others that also trade alone, the concept is probably foreign to you but it is called camaraderie.
Take a step back Bigblock and look at all the threads that have been locked, or we have been warned by the moderators to tone it down. Do you see that you are in the middle of most of the contriversy? Do you think that this is what most of us want? The answer is no this is not what we want, and you have been asked by us and the Moderators to knock it off. What is it going to take to make you understand that your brand of enlightenment is not welcome here, so why not take your side show on the road and visit another city were they might actually get you. because noone here does.
Thats all from me for now.
Apsll.
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Bigblock
that chart is all great.. but I can't trade that chart.. neither I dare say can anyone else BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. There are no indicators or methods I think in existance that can tell me the exact turning points of a given stock...on a day by day basis. PLUSS you made no concession to accumulating the stock. Yest one share lot bought at the beginnign would have done 18%... but what about further purchases along the way.
Wait .. there may be one.. but I gotta go pay for it.
i admit that "Longer term" is subjective. And there are some of those dips that I would have side stepped. I did not intend to imply a blind buy and hold philosophy.. that I believe is the corner brokers scam they shove onthe rest of the world.... along with maret orders and buying "solid" companies with good dividends.
But those are "potential" gains and potential reads "Theoretical" and trust me I have enough experience with the chasam between "Theory" and "Reality" with a PHD of philosophy in the house.
The point is .. aside from a rare few people who can trade that chart, like that, in the end of the year more money is statisticaly made from holding multiple diverse (in some manner) positions. An attempt should be made to sidestep the big drawdowns, and an attempt should be made to focus on the stocks that will produce nice longer term trendlines and gains. Therin lies the Crux. Which ones will do that?
But make no mistake .. I'm with you ... I try to trade charts like that all the time.... it just isn't that easy. But that is the goal of a short term trader.
Finaly what you highlighted were swing trades...... what I asked about was DAY TRADES. I wanted to know how day trading can out perform swing trading or any other longer term holding time frame. My contention is that it can't in the long run.
APSLL has seen this in watchign his long term holdings slowly outperform his short term trading. I've seen it in that many of my short term trades where I capture the day ... were up high for the month by months end... where some of my good swing trades were considerably higher by quarters end.
To prove it to me is gonna be nearly impossible. I'll have to see some news article sayingthe the new CEO of Berkshire Hathoway or some similarily equilivant company as wildly sucessful with ultra short term investments and having once had a forum handle of BIGBLOCK. When that happens I'll publicly eat a dead crow and put it on "you tube".
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I submit to the Wordens that Bigblocks actions are an intentional, since it is clear that he is only escalating his antics. Considering the fact that he does not even use your product and that he sponsors a competeing website gives rise to suspicion as to his motives.
I know that you might say that this is not my business, but I have enjoyed this forum for the last two years and am now giving serious consideration to leaving due to his distruction of decent well meaning threads. I also know that at times I have added fuel to his fire, but making peace with him seems impossable at this time.
From a concerned long time member and continued user of your fine software.
Apsll.
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Guys,
Just ignore him and he will go away.
David, you may want to start this thread again since it has become completely trashed. There are only 1 or 2 posts above relevant to your orignal topic. Good luck.
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QUOTE (Apsll) I submit to the Wordens that Bigblocks actions are an intentional, since it is clear that he is only escalating his antics. Considering the fact that he does not even use your product and that he sponsors a competeing website gives rise to suspicion as to his motives.
Apsll.
I had wondered about that, all his posted charts are some other product. i thought that a person needed to be a member of worden products to be a member of the forum?
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