I am trying to understand %-true indicators as a means of validating some trading ideas I'm working on. pls. forgive if this is a double posting - I spent an hour preparing it, and when I clicked on preview, it disappeared and I haven't found it in the current discussion queue; so, here goes (again). 

Suppose I have two predictors which are "true" in high correlation - does this, in principle, make one a reasonably good predictor of the other?

Example:






Here, you see that one indicator, the white one, is a pointed-top or teepee 100% of the time. I am using it as my "predictor". The other, the red one, which involves price direction (isn't that what we're all trying to predict?) can be a teepee, but is more often a flat-top i.e. can be true over a short period of time. This is a snap of a daily view, by the way.

If the first (white) predictor becomes true during the time the 2nd is true, and above all, prior to the time the 2nd is no longer true, can it be said to be a short-term predictor of the 2nd?

I will be happy to share and refine / improve my indicators if I have understood things correctly, but there's no point in dragging out a red herring if I'm off the mark. They're not very complicated, and are simply the result of thinking about the few principles I understand, doing a bit of observeration on some charts, and coming up with a couple of formulas to test them out. So far, so good, but I don't want to waste much more time if I'm heading down the wrong path.

Thanks!

jfc

JFC - NE OBLIVISCARIS !  Swan or Boar ?

Unfortunately your pic didn't seem to go through.  I don't know that there is "A True Path".  IMO you might think about the logical arguments you are trying to construct.  They may be "Predictive" or may be a natrual part of the flow  of price in that one will happen first..... does that mean it's "predicitive"?  Possibly.... Possibly not.  They may be totally unrelated.  One might be a great trigger and the other a nice confirmation.  They may be slightly different expressions of the same thing.

It's difficult to say with out the formulas.  you can copy and paste them here.

if you take to long on a post it will get dropped.  Alwayse copy it to your clip borad or highlight and rt click the text, click copy and THEN "Post".  1/2 the time I have to re do my posts... in that case I just paste in the text and hit "Post"