Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Looking to trade 1 or 2 of these tomorrow morning. Any opinions as to why you do or do not like these for a quick swing?
AOB
BRCD
CCOI
EMKR
FALC
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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I'll bite. Generally, they all look like strong stocks which positive indicators.
AOB: I see a support level at 11.77/10.85 which has already been tested once. I would wait for a second test of that level for enty.
BRCD: I generally don't play these breakouts until the retrace back, so no comment. Becareful not to be the bag holder.
CCOI: I see some intraday support at the 26.65/25.93 level. That would be my buying area.
EMKR: Nice daily support at 9.00/8.46. I would wait for a move to that level to buy.
FALC: Again nice support around 12.75.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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At a glance i like CCOI and FALC the best
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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If I was to enter on Monday morning, I would go with BRCD.
It just finished a horizontal consolidation after a nice run-up - I find these type of horizontal consoldiations very compelling - the stock got to relax and recharge for the next leg up, yet absolutely no damage was done while it waited for the 13 ema to rise to give it support and a push.
Friday was a very strong day volume-wise, and it finished at 97% of the daily high/low spread - which to me says that demand wasn't fully met and will spill over into the next trading day.
MACD-H just turned direction up after almost falling into the negative, but didn't - also a sign of strength - and look at how long the last MACD-H up cycle lasted
Looking at volume indicators - all look great - OBV is very high, MS is well above its 26 ma and TSV 26 is not only well above 0, but has just dropped though the bottom of its 13BB and is reversed and coming back up through the bottom - something Tobydad (where is he???) always pointed to as a definite sign of strength.
I just may take a position in BRCD myself, Grizzled 
As for the others - my rule on buying on a pullback is not to enter until the price passes the the high point of the last down day. You may want to keep an intraday eye on these and see if any do that and then enter - but I wouldn't enter any before then
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Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 64
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ccoi latest net profit margin is -24%?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Sparks - when swing trading or any trading based upon technical factors - especially on a short couple of day/couple of week position - fundamentals such as profits have absolutely no bearing on the merits of the trade. It's ALL based upon chart movements.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 64
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ccoi latest net profit margin is -24%?
Compare falc to fx40 comparison symbol.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 64
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Hohandy arent short term price swings effected by investor physcology? While you prefer to trade based only on techincals, what about all the other people trading in the stock?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Thanks for the insight! It is always very interesting to see how everyone is looking for and seeing different elements of a chart. I have learned something from everyones input.
BRCD really caught my attention for the reasons you mentioned HH, though I still haven't learned to read MACD-H to the extent you have. I like it because of the breakout from a resting period and all of the indicators look good. Golfman has caused a little doubt, because what he says makes sense...I do not want to be left holding the bag. I will probably watch this one for the first hour before entering. One other positive is that IBD gives an 87 composite score. I am not real big on fundies but it does make me feel better anyway.
I am leaning toward FALC as my second choice because it broke out of what appears to be a multi- month trading range on strong volume. It looks like the next leg up could be under way. Again I will watch the first 30 or 40 minutes before entering to ensure it is going up. IBD comp score of 99 on FALC...
Sparksor, I had no idea that feature was available on Telecharts, using the fx40......I have much more to learn....
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Sparks
It seems to me that at any given time the trend is a good measure if the psychology of the market as a whole or of individual stocks.
If there is interest enough to trigger buying then the trend will be up, if there is active selling or there is just no interest then the trend will be dowh, If everyone thinks the price is about where it should be, then the trend will be sideways.
I believe this to be true no matter the time frame from years to minutes.
The difference between the trend of the market as a wholeand the trend if a single stock is the number of people interested enough to buy or sell.
IMO. Enough. I'll get off my soap box now.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Sparks - sure - and I would submit that investor - actually scratch that - "investor" implies long-term - a trader is someone who trades short-term - trader psychology is based upon the technicals.
Let's assume for a second that no information about profits or other factors about a stockl will come out this week. - nothing that will affect the stock on a fundamental basis. Yet that stock will move up or down, and people will buy and sell and make money and lose money based upon that price movement. And that's what a trader (as opposed to an investor) does. And, since nothing changed in the fundamentals, that is based almost purely upon technical analysis.
Charts aren't just abstract "pretty pictures" (h/t Realitycheck) - but are representations and analysis precisely of what the other people trading in the stock are doing and provide a roadmap of where supply and demand based upon the actions of those people will take the price next. Sure, your point is very valid for investing on a long-term basis - but on the short-term, is of little use.
It's interesting that you refer to chart reading/technical analysis as "analysis paralysis" - I consider sifting through news and profit reports and trying to analyze fundamental information of over 7000+ comnpanies every day in order to figure which is the best to make me money as "analysis paralysis" (and I work as an economist, so I am very used to working with vast amounts of data).
Instead, considering the charts, considering how other buyers are acting toward a stock and acting upon that is something that lends itself to easy and manageable analysis. One thing about chart indicators - a lot of other people are reading and acting upon them also, so they almost become self-fulfilling. I have a reasonable assurance that when a price hits and gets support at an important indicator such as the 50 MA, that it will move up. Why? Because many people bought at the 50 MA, and many people will buy because those people bought at the 50 MA - it almost becomes self-fulfilling. Same as I know that price will most likely go down if price breaks through important resistance - because others will also act upon that. It won't do much for a long-term investment strategy, but for scalping a quick 5-10% in a few days, contrary to your point, it is exactly considering what all the other people trading in the stock are doing.
There's no "paralysis" there - especially with a tool such as Telechart. Pick a couple of indicators that you understand how to use in money-making strategies, and sort for them and evaluate those results based upon your own personal goals. An easy way to boil down the entire market into managable criteria, representing what other people trading in stocks are doing, that represent money-making opportunities at an acceptable level of risk to you. There's no one "right" or "wrong" way to play the market - it's all based upon individual strategy. Yours appears to be long-term investing based upon consideration of fundamentals such as profits - that's entirely valid if it works for you and your goals. But there are equally valid (and succesful) ways of making money in the market that have absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals - and short-term ways of making money in which consideration of fundamentals will be a hinderence because poor fundamentals will preclude consideration of otherwise successful money-making opportunities and strategies such as swing-trading and day-trading fit into the latter category. It doesn't mean that they aren't considering the other people trading in the stock, it's considering that many other people trade in the stock and acting upon that. Maybe because you don't trade that way, you don't see it - but it isn't abstract - it's very much considering the other people trading in the stock.
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Grizzled - think of MACD-H as an aerial view of the ebb-and-flow of the tug-of-war between the bulls and bears. The distance from the 0 line is a sign of strength and acceleration by either side. When the bulls are strong, how far can they pull the bears over the line? Can the bears prevent them from going too far? Can the bulls reach as far as the last time - and is that reflected in price? When the bears are strong how far can they pull the bulls? etc.
2 things to consider:
- Look at the ebb-and-flow in each up and down cycle and where it's max/min point is to gauge how strong each particular side was. Notice with BRCD that not only did the MACD-H reach a new high during the last up cycle at the end of September, but that was also reflected in a price high. The bulls were obviously very strong. Then the bulls ran out steam for a little bit and the tide turned toward the bears taking control for their turn. Notice that even when they reached their maximum strength (min MACD-H point in the down cycle 2 bars ago), they still weren't able to drag the Bull team over the center 0 line. Also notice that throughout the bear's cycle, the price didn't go down at all - VERY bullish. Now it's the bulls turn again - the bears have shown they are extremely weak and ineffectual - the bulls have shown they are extremely strong - what do you think will happen with the price from here? Considering the apparent difference in the bull/bear strength at this point, and that this new up cycle is only 1 day old, it is reasonable to assume that the bulls will again make headway before the bears get their act together and show any strength. Which is why I disagree with Golfman - I don't see any strength driving the price back to "retest" anything anytime soon - the strength is very one-sided in one direction right now. You look for a "retest" when there is a major high or low to ensure that that direction has in fact changed (and when retesting a major low, one way to validate the retest is to make sure that the MACD-H on the retest is higher than when it was on the first low). But in the case of BRCD, there is no major low or change of direction to retest - you wait for a retest and you'll entirely miss the swing trade.
- besides considering the overall max/min point of each MACD-H cycle, look at the direction/slope of the bars. If they are headed up - especially in the beginning of a cycle, it's good for entry. Once they peak and start declining, think about exit. As long as the bars are headed upward, upward price movement should be accelerating.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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hohandy,
Excellent illustration! Thank you. I know there are never any guarantees, but with this much technically going for it BRCD looks to be a prime prospect.....
G
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Actually I need to apologize to Golfman because I read his post wrong and that he said "retrenchment" rather than "retest". Sorry about that.
But my point still stands - a retrenchment can be a slight pullback before moving forward again, rather than a full retest of the last price low. But given the huge imbalance of strength between the bulls and bears in the BRCD example (as well as the close at 97% of the high/low price spread on heavy volume on Friday), I wouldn't be surprised if BRCD runs right out of the gate at the open on Monday. If you wait for a "retrenchment" (sorry again, Golf) you may miss the trade.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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you're welcome Grizzled - that's how I look at MACD-H and I hope I was able to present it in such a way that it is more easily understood. Not very difficult and it's served me well when comparing realtive merits of various stocks. It seems extremely easy and basic that I hope more people will understand and profitably use it in their systems.
Now watch it make a liar out of me and BRCD plunge at the open tomorrow!
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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hohandy,
If it tanks, it tanks. Like many of you have said in the past...we get paid to take risks and we are responsible as individuals for the decions we make....
G
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Grizzled
For an example of what I was talking about earlier about using MACD-H to retest a low - check out a daily chart for IDT. Look at where the MACD-H was during the price low at the end of September - and compare that to where the MACD-H is on Friday when the price low was retested (and a succesful retest it was - price bounced upward on very strong volume, closing at it's high for the day). While the bulls aren't exactly strong yet, the bears seem to have lost their power. Compare where the price low in September was to the MACD-H low several bars earlier - even though price was dropping out of momentum, it was evident that at that point the downtrend was weakening as the downward price couldn't keep the MACD-H from rising after the MACD-H low.
3 places to look at MACD-H
1) Compare where the MACD-H level is at extreme price points (major and minor price high and lows). If the prevailing trend is strong, then the MACD-H at the new extreme point will be further from zero in the direction of the trend. In IDT, comparing the MACD-H of the price low of 10/12 to the price low of 9/25 we would expect the 10/12 MACD-H to be at or below that of 9/25. Instead it higher now.
2) Compare the extreme MACD-H max/min levels of each cycle. In a strong uptrend, the max MACD-H level of the current cycle should be higher than that of the previous up cycle if the price is higher. Compare the min 8/31 MACD-H to the 9/17 min MACD-H. They both reached the same level, but the lower price wasn 't enough to pull the MACD-H any lower - if there was a strong downtrend still in place, the 9/17 should have been much lower to match the price.
3) Compare the relative max/min levels of the high and low of each cycle to see which side is stronger in the bull/bear tug-of-war. Notice how the max 10/05 MACD-H is much higher (further from 0) than the min 9/17 low MACD-H was low. If price goes up on Monday (and I suspect it will), the 10/12 min MACD-H will be the cycle low and that will be compared to the 10/5 max MACD-H. Either way, comparing the 10/05 max MACD-H to the 9/17 low, or the 10/12 low (if it turns out to be a low), will show that the bulls at this particular point in time are much stronger than the bears and that the bottom has been successfully retested.
A riskier person may enter IDT on Monday - I would expect to get some short-term swing out of it. But the reason for this post isn't necessarily to recommend IDT, as it is to further illustrate how to use the MACD-H and what it can tell you.
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Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Sparks, you should always go long on fundamentally strong companies and short the week ones. This improves your edge. Short term long term it does not matter, always check the fundamentals and news on a potential play. Not doing so is foolish. HMY’s chart might look good for a short term swing, but when you check the news before the opening bell you find that they have 3000 miners’ trapped in a mine. Do you still go long of course not? AB
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Another great illustration. Learning to spot the instances where there are one or more prior lows and corresponding low MACD-H bars, versus a new lower low and a rising MACD-H seems very powerful in and of itself....Is this something you have just trained yourself to spot, or do you have a scan that helps find these. I need to go back to some of your prior posts, I am sure this has been discussed... You have been most helpful...
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Joined: 12/21/2004
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Just something I've learned along the way Grizzled. I don't know of any particular scan that will get it either - although in a downtrending market, I will scan for price within .05% of 30 day low (or better yet yesterday's price within .05% of 30 day low combined with up day today), and then do a visual comparison of the results. MACD-H dosn't lend itself too well to PCFs and Scans - once you get past a very simple MACD-H today>MACD-H yesterday or something along that line the formulas tend to get very complicated - for an example check out this thread to get an idea of what I mean:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=2823
I primarily use and got interested in MACD-H in the other direction - screening for high stocks and then using MACD-H to confirm whether the trend that produced the high price will continue. Since the optimal MACD-H in such a situation is the highest MACD-H value on a recent daily chart, I screen for high price, and then use the Visual Sort function to sort results watchlist by visual value of the MACD-H. The actual value doesn't matter, but it's relative place on the chart compared to other high MACD-H. The visual sort will assign a value of "100" to those charts where the MACD-H is the highest on the time-period of the chart - so I call such high price/high MACD-H setups "MACD-H=100". Combine a MACD-H100 with the Diceman and you should get some nice swing candidates.
OTOH, if a high price doesn't return a high MACD-H, a know the prevailing trend doesn't have legs and I take a pass.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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QUOTE (grizzled1)
BRCD really caught my attention for the reasons you mentioned HH, though I still haven't learned to read MACD-H to the extent you have. I like it because of the breakout from a resting period and all of the indicators look good. Golfman has caused a little doubt, because what he says makes sense...I do not want to be left holding the bag. I will probably watch this one for the first hour before entering. One other positive is that IBD gives an 87 composite score. I am not real big on fundies but it does make me feel better anyway.
Thus, it probably goes up 10%+ tomorrow. Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Even though the market stank I did well with SSRX, and SIRF for a quick few hundred bucks.
BRCD never triggered my order, but it did hold it's own thru a not so good day in the market. I am leaving my order in place, if it triggers tomorrow...we'll see...
FALC triggered and did nothing but go down, however it did not hit my hidden stop...
I have found several nice entries for tomorrow...but I am a little concerned...is any one else planning on taking positions tomorrow? Is it really a bargain hunters day, or would it be wise for someone of my experience level to sit tomorrow out? 
G
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Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (grizzled1)
... or would it be wise for someone of my experience level to sit tomorrow out?
If you get up in the morning ... and oil is up another buck and a half ... gold is up another 10 bucks ... asian markets took a dump overnight ... and the European markets are tanking ...
Let the kids skip scool and take them fishing ....
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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10-4  I got that loud and clear!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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Wouldn't you know, BRCD pulled all the way back and reversed. Would have been my perfect entry. I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Yep Golf - "wait for the retrenchment" was absolutely the perfect advice
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Sense the 200ma recent support has held up BRCD might make for a good entry at this point. AB
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Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 64
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-40 mil on the earnings, -24% on the lastest net profit on CCOI
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Sense the 200ma recent support has held up BRCD might make for a good entry at this point. AB
I agree, if I wasn't already in 6 positions I would take a position in BRCD on a positive open this morning. The problem is now with the futures down BRCD may have trouble moving today....but one never knows.
Griz
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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Of the five stocks I mentioned at the beginning of this post I traded two and have been watching one for an entry.
I took a position in FALC and AOB. I stopped out of FALC today, which surprised me....AOB is hanging in there. Everytime BRCD gets set up the market beats it back down.....I have a couple more positions one is hanging on and another actually moved up .50 today. This is either a tough time to trade, or I just cannoct pick 'em.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I think it's a tough time to trade. I have not gotten anywhere in a year, after kicking ass the previous year... fluxuating in the same $5000.00 range. it's getting better I think. (some of that has been problem I developed in my trading.
consider your buying points and wht is going on in the gerneral market. I think this is part of my mistake. Aside from the general rise in volitility (common at tops and bottoms ?) the news hammering the crap out of banks and homes sales etc etc. and right after a very nice run out of a pretty deep correction..... on questionably low volume. It would probably be, or have been better to hold on the sidelines for a bit. BUT as time has gone on It looks like the previous resistance will become suport.
so far we have two whicks on the daily bouncing price out of the previous congestion areas... showing demand zones... Probaby bargain hunters. Also all of the major indexes had gaps yesterday on huge upside morning Futures numbers. Those are only a loose guide... not concrete for a call to the daily direction but sometimes they can be telling... the most useful is when they are at an extreeme in either direction as this often points to a whipsaw...and price will often open and move agressively in the direction of the futures...and the move be exhausted eventually and an intra day reversal to end up for the day. today was almost such a day so I wouldn't be suprised to see prices begin to climb from hereish.
The nasdaq seems to be holding up weel here is ..and the MGI's sorted by performance during the recent selling brings up allot of TECH sectors... so this might be a place to focus.
I have bought a ton of tops...and Now I try to look for lower risk entry points... yest prices can go on beautiful momentum runs ... but once they are running it's tough to make the call as to whether it will continue up or not... so I look for periods of low volitility defined by Moving averages as entry points.
do a search for the diceman indicators threads to get a sense... and make shure you use moving averages apropriate to you hold time.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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New entries for today....maybe... All short term...
VSE
NRMX
MALL
SNIC
DFR Running in a nice channel, for now anyway.
WINN This one is a little different pick for me,but signals are ok. No base has formed so I wonder if it is really reversing at this point or just resting before going down further?
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Joined: 8/20/2007
Posts: 5
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griz ,pls bear with me as you can see i am a newbie.i have been following the way you the stocks you always paste .they all look the way i want to select my stock .i tried to set up my system the same way but i couldnt .you stock pasted on 25/10 looks good pls show me the parameters.thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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Grizz, Picked up some BRCD today, thanks for mentioning it. If it climbs past $10.50, $15 looks possible.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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laphill,
Once again I missed out because of my day job...If it doesn't gap up tomorrow morning, I'll make time to get in....Been waiting on this one for a while....
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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dorisosei,
I do not mind sharing anything I have learned. Remember though I too am a newbie and have only been doing this a short time. As for the scans I use, it may surprise you that I run through 4 or 5 every night and look at any where from 500 to 800 stocks. I simply have not found "the scan" that shows me what I am looking for , so I look at several. I wish I had a better answer for you but I do not, it is simply a matter of hard work and time, but because I really enjoy this it isn't a problem for me. Wasn't it Diceman who said to be careful not to over refine your scans because you run this risk of missing some good looking charts?
Maybe with more experience I can refine my scans and shorten the amount of charts I look at. If you are still interested in a couple of the scans I use, I'll be happy to post more information. Most of the scans I use came from this form BTW.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/28/2007
Posts: 118
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More short term possibles....
ICO
BEXP
IPCR this one would have to open strong
and of course BRCD.....one of these days I'll get in.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Looks like today's the day for BRCD
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