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Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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Does anyone else notice that SPY is looking a little toppy on the 2 day chart? Left Shoulder on 6/4/07, Head on 7/17/07 with Right Shoulder on 9/20/07. The huge increase in volume on the decline from the head position and the subsequent light volume on the climb to the right shoulder are troublesome to me. MS is also heavily divergent to the downside. We could be setting up for another serious October decline in the market.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Quite possibly? I'm loking at a a weekly chart with volume. I also use TSV 52, and moneystream. Attach ROC to volume. It seems to me that more often than not when TSV and the ROC spike it seems to point out tops. The thing is to watch the TSV ... if it begins climbing higher i'd be cautious about calling it a top. BUT Moneystream on this view looks absoluetly depressing. But you know on second thought the volume picture looks pretty good on the weekly. IMO were in the beginning of a ralley...I'd be looking for chances to go long over shorts... but thats me.
If youre dead set on going short maybee something in the real estate sector. I would think that they have been inflated with some buying of late... but I don't think they have hit a bottom.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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TSV on 2 day with a 20 period. looks pretty bad so maybee you are right.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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I'm not seeing the same head and shoulders formation that you are seeing. On the 2,3,4,and 5 day, could this actually be the beginning of a right shoulder on a reverse head and shoulder formation?
Quite frankly, I'm not sure where this market is headed.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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yet if you consider the current high levels of the MACD-H on the 2 day chart, going back to the 2002 market bottm, whenever the MACD-H has reached this level has always coincided with a strong uptrend going forward.. Not saying it will or won't happen, just not all the portents seem necessarily dire.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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If we bring up a 2-Day chart of SPY, we observe the following:
1) Right-Edge 09/24/07, TSV20 Simple:
TSV positive divergence.
2) Right-Edge 09/24/07, TSV21 Simple:
No TSV positive divergence.
3) Right-Edge 09/21/07, TSV20 Simple:
No TSV positive divergence and TSV remains negative.
What we see in TSV depends on which of the two 2-Day charts we are using and on the period of the TSV Simple.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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