Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This one broke through an overhead resistance line that goes back to 2003. Now it has settled back down on top of that line....resting. Big volume spike today.
I really like this pattern. I've worked on PCF's to find these before (with limited success).
I think we may have some real potential here.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
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Hey, tobydad! Glad to see you back. Missed your astute observations and generosity with your help. I'm having some trouble finding the overhead resistance trend line to which you refer. Would you be able to define points/dates, please? I'm sure once you define them, I'll probably have to whack myself upside my head and say, "Duh". Thanks much.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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shark, I'll give you my take on what I think tobydad sees on the chart. Set the chart to weekly and zoom out so year 2003 to current date shows. Note the early 2003 support at 6 area which are the lows for that year, and then late 2004 the 6 area held again, establishing a well defined support level. Early 2005 the 6 support area was violated, so now the old support of 6 has become new resistance. Note several times since the early 05 breakdown that price has gone back up to 6 area and failed to penetrate. Draw a straight horizontal line from the lows of 03 to current date and it's easy to see. Remember: Whenever a support level is violated, that same level is now resistance, and vice versa. At least that's my interpretation.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
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fpetry, Thanks for explaining. Was blind but now I see. (Whack!)
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Another take that I think Tobydad is refering to would go like this. -
On the same weekly chart draw a trendline conecting the highs of 2003 & 2004. If you follow this out to the current price then the same theory applies. Since the trendline has been breached it now acts as the support level.
Tobydad will explain I am sure...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Just to add, I think that both theories are valid and actualy add double justification for the support to hold..
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Here's what I see on the chart.
The highs mentioned by tobydad and the lows mentioned by
fpetry form a down slanting channel which was broken on
the up side on 03/12/07 on high volume.
Note that the horizontal line through the low of 2003
mentioned by fpetry also touches the low of 2004 and the
high of 2006 to form a right angle triangle.
Connect the weekly lows on 05/31/05 and 12/31/06 and you
have the second triangle.
The channel and both triangles were all broken to the
upside on high volume on 03/12/07 and the rpice has
pulled back toward support at the top of the channel and
the triangles' trend lines.
This looks so good I'll buy at the open on Monday.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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tobydad
Thanks for bringing this one up. I would have missed it.
The volume spike you mentioned for Thursday. was this
after hours? The last volume spike I see was on 03/12.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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You can have a different view of this stock. If you apply
a linear regression channel to a weekly chart.
Settings: Period=300, width=25.
Obviously in the short-term money can always be made.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I appreciate everyone's input on this, nice to see confirmation from other qualified traders. apsll and I have bounced ideas off each other so much that he knew what I was looking at.
I've got 2 upper or resistance trend lines drawn, early-03 to late-04 and late-03 to late 04. I suspect, if this takes off, that we'll see pullbacks at those points. But, again, I always just let the charts tell me when to get out and buy back in. I don't try much to predict targets.
The great thing is I didn't even see what bcraig and fpetry were seeing, but it's true, they confirm and strengthen the assessment that we should be sitting on some solid support right now. So thanks to all for sharing and pitching in.
Diceman, when you say "...a different view..." are you referencing the downward trend of this stock or the fact that it broke up through the upper channel for the first time in several years? I'm guessing the former but curious to get your thoughts. Please elucidate.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Oops, bcraig, forgot your question. I see your point about the last vol spike being 3/12. I guess it becomes a matter of semantics (what one calls a "volume spike").
Anyway, I was making reference to the fact that the volume was up by about 2x on Thursday compared to Wed.
You, of course, were referencing a true volume spike with respect to a larger time frame, am I correct?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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tobydad
You're correct about the smaller spike on 03/30.
I saw the big one and quit looking
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Diceman, when you say "...a different view..." are you referencing the downward trend of this stock or the fact that it broke up through the upper channel for the first time in several years? "
The downward trend. While there are the positives mentioned.
It is also at a place where it has run out of steam in the past.
It was not clear to me if this was intended to buy right away
or just something to keep an eye on and await further developments.
(the last few trading days seem odd, the range seems unusually
tight, could just be the holiday)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I really like this pattern. I've worked on PCF's to find these before (with limited success)."
I'm not sure is these would qualify exactly. (volume requirements
may not be there and I have not looked at them on daily charts)
but:
CRY
HH
ONSM
NDN
FOE
CBM
TGX
BRKS
appear to be showing similar patterns.
I found these by doing a % slope sort on the 300 week
linear regression line and looking for a break of the upper band of
the weakest stocks.
(width 25)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Nice move, good volume. Could be just the beginning...we'll see.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This ended up with a very nice day. Hope you weren't caught snoozing.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Please don't let this get off your radar screen. If you are a swing trader, this should make a nice move (gulp...I hope) pretty soon.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/7/2007
Posts: 45
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Thanks Todydad........I put a couple little lines on there and it looks like a trangle. it should be a nice move...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Tobydad
What do you see as a reasonable target?
Possibly the highs on 03/01 and 04/10?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'd like to think it's taking off this time. It might be waiting for the 50ma to catch up. It seems to like the 50ma as a jumping off point.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/7/2007
Posts: 45
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I with you Tobydad it is taking it's time......but take a look the 50 is there and is sitting back on my trend line from the first week in April. Hold on to your hats and enjoy the ride.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Resting on top of the same trendline it powered through a while ago. Usually a pretty good sign.
If you got stopped out, you might want to climb back on board now. (Keep pretty tight stops though til we see what it wants to do).
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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CBO+.01 might be a safer way to get back into this one.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/9/2007
Posts: 32
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what Is 'CBO+0.1'?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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This is at what is called "No man's land" area. No support until about 4 and spiring down. The only answer here is short. Coincidentaly the 4 level is at the 200 MA.
The rest is just wasting your time.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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I agree with Bigblock.
The nearest support/resistance happened in March of 06 in the range 5.1 to 5.5. Once that level is broken it is free fall to 3.0.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Looks to me as though it might very well be bouncing off that support level (from March 06). I think you will get your answer on Monday. It even looks like there is a positive divergence in the MACD-H and Money Stream...
(IMO)
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Sorry newoaboreland; didn't see your question right away. I use cbo+.01 for conditional buy order at 1 penny above the high.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I wouldn't short this stock just yet. Maybe a good short but I'm just thinking it might up some upside to it soon.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This is developing very nicely. If this support level holds (and I see no reason that it should not), we will have an excellent jumping off point.
Looking at a weekly chart, zoom 1, you can see a clear channel in which this traveled from early-2000 until this March at which time it broke through the top of the channel with authority.
It's settling back down on top of that channel. I can only pray it touches down on the lbb20 one more time.
Get out the the heavy test line, boys, and strap me in, I'm reeling in a big one. Triple-digit country, here we come.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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I agree, tobydad.
It needs to break on the upside from the LR30,20 channel with a good volume spike and have the BB13,20 pinch together.
TSV34, MS, MACD-H12,43,9 need to do a little more work but BOP looks OK.
When it breaks out of the LR channel, I'll handle the gaff for tobydad.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Yes, needs a little more forming but I like how it's developing.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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It's really becoming time to keep an eye on this. OBV is still above its 255-day LR (a long term indicator I've never talked about before...but a good one).
Today's candle is supported by LR30; and TSV26 has just popped its head up out of its ubb13; which is just beginning to turn up.
Best of all, price has still not broken back down through the resistance trendline that it "schooled" back in March. Also, today's price broke a mini resistance trendline that has held through May and did it on increased volume.
I think we're headed somewhere with this; just don't know when. This is one of those that you just "had to be there".
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Once again I agree with Tonydad, with this addition.
On 03/02 it tstablished a mini resistance at 5.65 and in 03/14 it rstablished the mini resistance referred to by tobydad. Since 05/11 the price has remained within this mini channel.
When the price breaks over the top of this mini channel above 5.65 on good volume, then it's off to the races with the possibility of a major in price as it had on 03/08. Then it may pause in the vicinity of 8.0 on yje way yto who knows where.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Once again I agree with Tonydad, with this addition.
On 03/02 it tstablished a mini resistance at 5.65 and in 03/14 it rstablished the mini resistance referred to by tobydad. Since 05/11 the price has remained within this mini channel.
When the price breaks over the top of this mini channel above 5.65 on good volume, then it's off to the races with the possibility of a major in price as it had on 03/08. Then it may pause in the vicinity of 8.0 on yje way yto who knows where.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Cowabunga!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Trendline from high of 4/26 to high of 5/22 broken with some gusto yesterday. Price now settling back down on that trendline.
If this support holds you may well have a golden opportunity to get into a stock that has pretty much shown you what it intends to do...and that's go up and go up fast.
This is a good lesson in the shake and bake of the markets. The institutional (high power) buyers will test the excitement level of the masses with a big buy like yesterday. They get the ball rolling then stand back and let the feeding frenzy continue. People buy in after the gap up at almost any price because they don't want to be left out of "the big move". Now volume is not even 10% of yesterday's total volume.
So now they're executing stops of many that bought in yesterday. This is how they get you discouraged and "teach" you to stay away from "their" territory. They want you to learn to just wait until they've done their buying and then you can get on board after everyone else is buying the stock and let it begin its steady climb.
This is why I recommend the use of the bb20, the LR30 and enduring the NBHW zone (assuming you've made the proper assessments beforehand).
Unless someone orchestrates a disaster in this company, my guess is that this stock is truly going to kick butt very soon...and I will be on board when it does. Don't let this current action disuade you; it should excite you. This is perfect so far.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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I threw my shoulder out of joint pattng myself on the back.
I bought it on Monday at 5.45, sold it yesterday at 7.04 for a quick 26%.
Bought it back this morning at 5.75. Let's see how far it will run now.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Alright, let's look at the anatomy of one of my failed or premature calls. Yes, it happens more often than not, the key is learning how to deal with it.
4/5/07 I thought this was going somewhere and brought it up on this thread. You can see the progression of comments above. (By the way, this did give a couple of nice moves...the value is being in at the right time and out at the right time.)
Early this month, 6/05, it got support from the lr30 but tsv26 didn't make it over its 13ma. Price starting having trouble staying on top of the lr30 while tsv26 tried and failed to cross the 13ma as well as the 0 line. Meanwhile, the lbb20 was dropping away providing no upward pressure or support.
The result? A real MCTTF on 6/13. Now price is clearly below the lr30.
So this one gets moved to the "In Play" watchlist (stocks that we've been in but are now waiting for the next sweet spot to develop).
Final comment: I suspect this one will develop some real juice before too long. It didn't do all that it's done over the last year for no reason. Watch the news but more importantly watch the buying, they can lie about the news, but if somebody wants this stock for some secret reason, you'll see it in the charts.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Thanks for the commentary Tobydad. I hadn't looked at this chart for awhile and, boy, does it look ugly. A chart only its mother could love...
gotta question - what significance, if any, do you give to the elevated level of the OBV? Is that what makes you think it might get its juice again?
btw - hope your forehead feels better 
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