Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I feel as though I can hear the string quartet playing "Nearer My God to Thee" on the deck as the call "Women and children first" is bellowed again from the deck mates.
However, the Nasdaq chart looks prime to bounce over one last wave before we enter the abyss leading by the bow.
Any thoughts?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Nothing to worry about, Tobydad, if
Bernanke's comments this Weds. satifies
the markets.
IMO
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Do I think there can be a correction ala last may?
Yes.
(we've basically been going up since July)
Do I think this is the top? Not likely
Could I be wrong?
You betcha.
Have I ever been wrong?
Not Yet.
While I don't think it will happen now.
I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2000/2002.
If found it easier to find strong stocks
than in 2005.
(go figure)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I have been analyzing the nasdaq formation and came to the same conclusion as you tobydad, it looks like we will have one last wave before the drop..
It will not be official until the Nasdaq crosses below (2397)..I say this because this looks similar to the top before the May 06 correction..
The funny thing is that the other indiexes do not look as critical as the Nasdaq...
We will see...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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I've sold down a lot and added some shorts the past few days to where I'm approx. 1/3 cash, 1/3 short, 1/3 long. Did not plan at all those ratios, just happened. This is the heaviest I've been in cash and/or short in a long, long time. Wish I had done same thing last May; since then I've rebuilt my balance back up to near my all time highs and I refuse to take a big hit again. All my holdings long and short have tight leashes, so I'm prepared to quickly react to any market fireworks.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Man ... I just wish they would pick a clear and strong direction... This shilly shallying is killing me. I'm nearing 7k in losses from late nov foreward. I keep thinking that either I see a small quick oportunity and prices don't do much till I get in then reverse or think somethign is about to break out and it fails..
I refuse to act like an amature... but then the stuggle is am I Holding and hoping like an amature or would I be selling low and buying high like an amature, selling on the panick.
None of my aproaches seem to work now.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott did you read my post for you on the GOAM thread?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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ASPLL
I jsut got out of GOAM. $200 loss..
looks to be failing... It broke the penant upside and then keeps moving down.
I know that we are in a range bound market and as far as the nasdaq goes we are just south of the middle so provided we dont get a general downside break out a few days from now might be agood time to buy and trade the channel. I'm speaking in terms of trading individual stocks based on timing the broader market. Most of what I trade winds up being on the Nasdaq... not planned just works out that way.
what I will not do is wait till it gets neat is bottom range and start selling short (planning on a a down side breakout).... I tried that last "cycle" and got cleaned out.
I'm pretty much finished trading now untill we get a clear direction with some energy. I'll be reviewing my videos again for a bit, resisting the urdge to throw them out the window, or through it.
so I'll be sticking to my longer held stock plans... LMRA, MAMA, HTI, BRL, NFLX. These things I bought with the understandign that I might have to hold through a slight retracement... I didn't figure on doing that for ALL of them but allot of things happened lately that I didn't figure on.
Best way for someone else to make money is to trade against my thinking over the short term anyway. Just a clue guys. I have now oficially said good buy to my 65% average I had for a bulk of last year and said hello to my 5% average. I'm starting all over. My only focus now is capital preservation... to hell with growth.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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ASPLL
I jsut got out of GOAM. $200 loss..
looks to be failing... It broke the penant upside and then keeps moving down.
I know that we are in a range bound market and as far as the nasdaq goes we are just south of the middle so provided we dont get a general downside break out a few days from now might be agood time to buy and trade the channel. I'm speaking in terms of trading individual stocks based on timing the broader market. Most of what I trade winds up being on the Nasdaq... not planned just works out that way.
what I will not do is wait till it gets neat is bottom range and start selling short (planning on a a down side breakout).... I tried that last "cycle" and got cleaned out.
I'm pretty much finished trading now untill we get a clear direction with some energy. I'll be reviewing my videos again for a bit, resisting the urdge to throw them out the window, or through it.
so I'll be sticking to my longer held stock plans... LMRA, MAMA, HTI, BRL, NFLX. These things I bought with the understandign that I might have to hold through a slight retracement... I didn't figure on doing that for ALL of them but allot of things happened lately that I didn't figure on.
Best way for someone else to make money is to trade against my thinking over the short term anyway. Just a clue guys. I have now oficially said good buy to my 65% average I had for a bulk of last year and said hello to my 5% average. I'm starting all over. My only focus now is capital preservation... to hell with growth.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Scottnlena;
You know, you might want to consider mapping out exactly how you are getting into and out of trades (indicator set-ups, buy and sell signals, order types, etc).
Maybe pick one, like GOAM, and show how you executed the entire trade. Then let some of the real pros here coach you on what they're seeing that you could improve.
We keep talking about the experts posting there techniques on the site for everyone to see. Perhaps coming at it from another direction would be a great learning process for everyone.
Sure, someone has to put their trades out there for critique while everyone is watching; but it would surely help us all be a bit better.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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I agree with Tobydad - any entries would be welcome.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I do not mind being the first victim..
I have chronicled my entire venture with GOAM, on the like named thread.. I would welcome all feedback and criticism.
I already know that some might consider my approach risky for the amount of money I have invested, but my risk/reward formula of 2/1 is being met..
Just let me say at this time that the hardest lesson I needed to learn (and did), is that when your money is live in the market, your emotions will play mind games on you, it is easy to get whipsawed by the market makers (and they do it on purpose).. You can not allow that to happen, You have to be able to take losses and move on. A logical plan will not work when being governed by emotion.. If I lose a few thousand dollars on GOAM when my stop loss is breached then so what, I can, have and will make it back somewhere else.. First rule is do not expose any more than you are willing to say goodbye to. If you can not seperate yourself from your emotions when trading then it is dangerous for you to be in the market..
I do not know If a new thread will be started for these sessions, but I will keep my eye out for it...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/3/2005
Posts: 91
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TOBYDAD said
"Perhaps coming at it from another direction would be a great learning process for everyone.
Sure, someone has to put their trades out there for critique while everyone is watching; but it would surely help us all be a bit better."
I will also accept this for ACLS which I started a thread on today. I think it would be real interesting to see how others approach things. I do not claim to be an expert by any means, but I am happy with my results ( so far ). Maybe we could start such threads from now on with an easily recognizable title. If I could I would add " Case Study - ACLS " to the forementioned thread.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Nice idea, jpendley. I, for one, am all for it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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In my opinion stocks like GOAM with no earnings cannot be trusted. ACLS looks good having broke out of a 3 year downtrend line with all indicators looking up.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Thank you Laphill - My first feedback, I agree stocks like GOAM are high risk (poor fundimentals) trading them is like trying to groom a mad pitbull...
Only experienced pet care handlers should take on such chalenges...
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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-APSLL.
In reference to your post of 14Feb, I must say that you have hit the nail on the head with your insightful comment regarding emotions. Most of us pay to much attention only to the numbers when we are dealing with markets driven solely by human emotions; fear and greed. Some of the best, and must read, books were written about a century ago, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Lefevre is one of the best, as is "Extraordinary Public Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" I don't remember the author.
The mistakes we make today have been made for eternity because we are dealing with human psychology more so that numbers. This is why "Paper trading" can be dangerous. It removes the greatest obstacle to success.
Ourselves.
Good trading. Mammon
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I had to learn the hard way, belive me. There were times that I was convinced that the Market was designed for the sole purpose just to take my money.. It was when I realized - that I was right  Thats when I did some hard thinking, I knew that people "in the know" are taking profits, so I had to get in the know real fast..
At that time I was analizing all my losing trades (Many), and the one common thread was the fact that I was allowing emotions into my decision making process, so I papper traded with no regard to emotion (yes that is easy I know), but I found that my success increased many fold...
I cashed out some of my retirement funds in 2003 and proceeded to continue live what I had started on papper, I still took loses (a lot less then before) but I was gaining confidence and money managment skills. It also helped that 2003 was a great time to be in the Market.
Long story short I have increased my (Trading) portfolio many times over since 2003, and if you look at the way I traded GOAM, TRMM, and many others that I have chronicled on this forum you will see That I take chances (always having a stop loss or a quick way out, by being able to monitor the Market all day long), and yes I still have losses, but I manage them, to keep them minimal.
Lastly I will say that it helps to have capital (Deep enough to keep you going dispite losses)
I hope that this information will be usefull to someone who is right at that critical point in there trading, that fine line that will distinguish there success from failure...
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 7/30/2005
Posts: 51
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Money management is one of the key ingredients for long-term survival in this game. It is possible to have a string of losses in a row. I’m never impressed with the guy who has a 10K account and moves it to 20K in a month. This tells me he is a gunslinger and with time he will run into the wall at full speed. One of the most overlooked aspects in trading is money management and this has forced many to leave the game. I also think many get indicator happy. They have 15,000 indicators all turned on looking for this hook and that hook. They really don’t even look at the price chart. I’m not against indicators but I do believe what needs to be known is in the price chart… If you have not looked into a money management plan I’d highly suggest this as I think it is better to grow your account over time…
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