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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2004
Posts: 20
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Looking at ADBE, from about July 23 until the first of 05 it has been in an up trend. Right after the first of the year it broke below the trend line. During the up trend MS has stayed above price leading it up. Toward the end of the year at the top of the trend MS fell into sink with price. TSV(18) after the initial jump up at the first of the trend started a very gradual slope down with lower highs all the way right after the first of the year it broke below the 0 line and heading down. It looks like it could be heading for some place in the mid 40’s to me. Also looks like it will take its time getting there. Any comments would be great.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/3/2005
Posts: 28
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On Dec. 07 ADBE's 10-day MA of PROC crossed downward through the 30-day MA of PROC, presaging lower prices in the near future and was the first warning that it was time to set sell stops. On Dec 30 I warned my friends to sell and to buy PUTs or sell SHORT at the open on Dec. 31,2005. This was confirmed on Jan. 10, 2005 when the 20-day moving average of closing prices crossed the 10-day delayed 20-day moving AVG in a downward direction. Since that time the price action has stayed below the 20-day MA, but has slowed its descent. I feel that it's a little late to get in, but the seems to be ample space for further PUT/SHORT sale profits. There is nothing that I know of that will tell you (or me) how much further down ADBE will go. However, the price action will tell you when to take a bullish stance again. Good Hunting
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I think that you would benefit from looking at simple indicators from a little further out.
Adobe has a significant MS and ROC divergence since mid 2002. I would expect this stock to come down to the 200MA and once it gets there you can reevaluate the situation, but a prudent action would be to get out or perhaps short position for now. The stock has excellent fundamental. ROC, profit margin and sales are good. It may bounce off the 200 like a basketball with a little market cooperation.
Good luck.
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